Long-Term Global Oil Market Outlook 2030

Leading consultancy for the today’s markets www.fgenergy.com

Providing long-term projections of world oil demand/supply and prices

Available Early 2015

Leading consultancy for the today’s markets www.fgenergy.com

New uncertainties continually emerge in the global oil market, giving rise to the need for the constant reassessment of where the next unexpected shift in developments could occur. This requires an up to date, detailed and independent platform on which to identify and evaluate the risks and opportunities presented by the future direction in oil demand, supply and price.

FGE’s annual look into the longer term, apart from providing a Base Case forecast, also identifies the key sensitivities and risk factors inherent in the projections and allows clients to engage with the consultants in discussing and brainstorming the key emerging issues.

Long-Term Global Oil Market Outlook 2030

Last year’s issue of FGE’s Long-Term Global Oil Market Outlook focused on the impending fall in crude oil prices and this year we will be reviewing how low, and how long, this cycle of low prices could last. The methodology continues to be based around an internally consistent, bottoms-up, forecast of regional demand by product, crude oil production by country, and the interaction with oil prices through to 2030.

Overview

• What is the likely impact of low oil prices on oil production

around the globe? How quickly will US tight oil output be

affected, what are the implications of the inevitable reduction

in E&P capex, what does this mean for non-OPEC production?

• How respondent will the demand side be? Oil demand

growth is largely dependent on the transportation sector, but

price elasticity is clouded by government measures on fleet

efficiency, local taxes and potential subsidy reductions. Are

there prospects for other sectors to generate new demand

in a low price environment?

• The manner in which oil prices fell has raised questions as

to whether OPEC balancing role has now disappeared. This

price fall is different from previous times. Does this herald a

new era of market dynamics or will OPEC re-establish a market

management role?

• A period of low prices seems inevitable, but will this be a

U or V-shaped cycle and what are the implications for the

timing of the likely bounce back?

Key questions addressed in this study

Putting things into perspective: per-capita oil demand in selected countries over 130 years.

Chart 2 - Barrels of Oil Demand per-Capita and Year

US tight oil outlook—from surge to plateau.

Chart 3US Tight Oil Production Outlook by Play

This chart shows FGE’s oil price outlook from December 2013, forecasting a price decline due to oversupply, earlier than many other market participants.

Chart 1 - Oil Price Forecast from Long-Term Outlook Report, December 2013

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Leading consultancy for the today’s markets www.fgenergy.com

Long-Term Global Oil Market Outlook 2030

Coverage

Oil Demand Outlook by Country/Region and Product/Sector. A detailed and comprehensive projection of oil demand by seven products groups, by major region, for each year through 2030. Forecasts are also shown by main end-sector groupings, such as petrochemicals, industry, power generation and transportation. Forecasts of biofuels usage are also covered.

The importance of developments in the road transport sector. Particular attention is given to developments and sensitivities in this sector since it is expected to account for the major part of future oil demand growth. This is based around FGE’s detailed proprietary transportation fuels model.

The Global Balance and Price Implications. The global balancing exercise is a reiterative process which provides a basis for assessing pressures on the crude oil market, which are then translated into price forecasts for the benchmark Brent marker through 2030. In particular, and especially for the near-mid-term, it assesses the derived production level for Saudi Arabia, in its “swing producer” role and draws conclusions regarding price equilibrium. This approach is based on our view that crude oil prices are an integral part of the oil market dynamics. At times when demand or supply are moving out of line, prices will adjust in order to rebalance the market fundamentals. In the longer term, account is also taken of underlying cost considerations relating to conventional and unconventional supply sources.

Oil Supply Outlook by Country/Region and Source. An original and detailed analysis of US tight oil production is undertaken in the report, highlighting the likely growth profile and its sensitivity to a fall in prices. This complements the usual detailed, annual projections of crude oil production for around thirty individual non-OPEC countries, annually through 2030. OPEC production capacity developments are also projected. By individual member and this is set against the residual “call on OPEC” derived from the Global Balancing exercise.

Changes in Bunker fuels mix. The particular uncertainties surrounding the bunker fuel market, resulting from impending specification changes, both in terms of the global cap as well as the ECAs, has meant that this sector is also subject to sensitivity analysis in the report.

Economic Outlook background. The demand side forecasts are based around projections of economic growth across the regions and a downside sensitivity, based on a prolonged sluggish recovery from recession, is also examined.

Deliverables

PDF copy of the report (PowerPoint layout) Extensive supplementary excel data-sets

An interactive session with FGE consultants, either in FGE’s London office or via WebEx/video conferencing facilities.

A PowerPoint Executive Presentation Pack, with key charts and conclusions.

Contact Us

If you are interested in obtaining further information on this study, or would like to order the Long-Term Global Oil Market Outlook, please contact FGE’s Marketing department. Discounts available to FGE clients and previous purchasers of the study.

FGE LondonTel: +44 (0) 20 7726 9570 Email: marketing@fgenergy.com

Leading consultancy for the today’s markets www.fgenergy.com

Who will benefit from this study?

Independent Refiners Demand-side developments outside their own operating region can have significant implications for refiners’ operating environment and the detailed supply-side projections could highlight potential new sources of supply.

National Oil Companies Potential developments in crude oil prices are a critical element in planning and the particular approach to price forecasting in this report will provide new perspectives on price formation and potential trends in the future.

Major Oil Companies Who need an outside, independent, assessment of market developments to compare with their own, internal forecasts.

International/Governmental Organizations Who need an independent, non-political perspective on the International oil market and an understanding of key elements likely to drive future oil prices.

Other Oil and Service Companies Any company operating in the sector should benefit from an internally consistent and detailed assessment of potential developments in the market as an alternative to reliance on forecasts from government or international organizations.

Financial InstitutionsWhether investing or trading, this report will provide a comprehensive basis for assessing risks, particularly in the near/mid-term, as well as delivering a flexible and detailed database of future demand and supply parameters.

Oil Shipping CompaniesThe report provides a detailed framework covering the key elements driving their business in the long term. Access to FGE key consultants will also allow a better understanding of the main elements and sensitivities potentially affecting their own business strategies.

Long-Term Global Oil Market Outlook 2030

FGE SingaporeTel: +65 6222-0045