-
Long term (3 to 6 Months)
“
”
From CEO's Desk
Medium term (Upto 3 Months) Intraday
Note: The above outlook is based on IFA Global Research Academy
Proprietary ("IFA Dollar - Rupee Sentiment Index") based on
various
techno-fundamental factors relevant to the particular outlook
horizon. The index weights have been arrived at after rigorous
back
testing. The factors which are considered for computation of
barometers includes pre-defined and back tested weightage given
to
fundamental factors such as economic data, FII flows, Global
equity markets, Government & RBI activity, Onshore-offshore
activity, other
peer currency performance and other macro economic factors.
Further, this module also considers factors such as major MPC
member's
speech, meeting or summit. On the technical front, factors
include indicators and oscillators such as RSI, stochastic,
combination of
moving averages and other basic & advance technical studies.
(0 - 20%=extremely bearish, 21% - 40%=bearish, 41% - 60%=neutral,
61% -
80%=bullish, 81% - 100% extremely bullish)
News On The Street
45% 69% 58%
Mr. Abhishek Goenka
US Feds kept the key rates and asset purchases unchanged as the
committee believed
that keeping rates at current record lows would be appropriate
until labor market
conditions are consistent with Fed's assessment of maximum
employment and
inflation is on course to moderately exceed 2% for some time.
The Fed acknowledged
that the pace of recovery had moderated in recent times and that
the path of
economy would depend on the course of the virus including
progress on
vaccinations. The assessment of current economic conditions and
the portrayal of
economic outlook by the Fed can best be described as 'less than
optimistic'. The
markets certainly seem to have interpreted it that way as well
with US equities seeing
a sharp fall (Dow ended 2% lower). The US yield curve has
flattened and that is
generally supportive of the Dollar. Yesterday the RBI intervened
in the OTC, exchange
and NDF as well. The RBI is likely to have intervened to
moderate elevated cash-Tom
levels as well which resulted in the far end of the forward
curve coming off as well
with 1y coming off 9p from day's high around 366p to end at
357p. Domestic Equities
saw a sharp sell off yesterday. The Volatility is likely to
continue today on account of
Jan F&O expiry. Rupee is likely to trade in a 72.95-73.30
range.
Strategy: Exporters are advised to cover a part of their
exposure on upticks to 73.80-
73.90. Importers are advised to cover through options. The 3M
range for USDINR is
72.50 – 74.40 and the 6M range is 73.00 – 76.00.
IFA Dollar- Rupee Sentiment Index
● German govt slashed Germany's growth forecast to 3% this
year
IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |
● China says Indian ban on apps violates WTO fair rules of
business
● No change in CRISIL rating grades for banks - RBI
Path of economy depends on
the course of the virus, vaccine
progress - US Feds
● Biden takes sweeping steps to curb climate change, vows job
creation
● FDI inflows in April-November 2020 rise 22% to $58.37
billion
-
“USDINR
$ INDEX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
GOLD
”
72.50-74.90
1.3125-1.3650 ↑
0.7150-0.7750 ↑
73.00-76.00
$1800- $2000 ↑
73.00-76.00
$1700- $2200 ↑
107.00-112.00 106.00-111.00
1.1700-1.2200 ↑
89.00 - 93.00 ↓
1.1950-1.2350 ↑
$1800- $2100 ↑
104.00-108.00 ↓
January 28, 2021
Q2 FY 2021-22
● EURUSD (RANGE- 1.2050 - 1.2160)
Sterling plunged towards 1.3649 levels as a stock market rout
due to
concerns about excessive valuations boosted safe-harbour demand
for
the US Dollar. This bearish trend is likely to continue for
sometime amid
stronger US Dollar. Also, markets are still discounting the UK
Retail
Sales data that fell to the lowest levels since May due to the
renewed
COVID-19 lockdown measures.
● GBPUSD (RANGE- 1.3630 - 1.3730)
IFA Outlook
Q3 FY 2021-22
FX Outlook for the day
● USDINR (RANGE - 72.95 - 73.30)
Yen weakened towards 104.37 levels tracking the bullish trend in
US
Dollar after the U.S. Federal Reserve expressed concerns about
the
pace of the economic recovery. The weaker trend in Yen is likely
to
continue. However, there could be slight demand for Yen as
investors
turned more cautious on worries about the economic impact of
the
COVID-19 on the domestic economy.
Rupee opened weaker at 73.13 levels tracking a rebound on the
dollar
index amid a broad decline in regional shares. The US Feds
pledged to
keep economic pillars in place until there is a full rebound
from the
pandemic-triggered recession. Rupee shall remain under
pressure
tracking the bearish trend in domestic equities. 72.80 is an
important
support level.
Euro plunged towards 1.2057 levels after an ECB member warned
that
interest rate cuts are possible to curb the common currency’s
recent
gains. Going forward, Euro is likely to continue with its
bearish trend
tracking the stronger DXY. Also, the German government has
slashed
its growth forecast to 3% this year from 4.4%, caused by a
second
coronavirus lockdown.
● USDJPY (RANGE- 103.80 - 104.50)
Q4 FY 2020-21
DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT
1.1450-1.2000 ↑
Q1 FY 2021-22
0.7200- 0.7600
91.20- 95.50
1.3100-1.3600 ↑ 1.3400-1.4000 ↑
0.7150- 0.7650 ↑
95.00- 100.00 ↓ 95.00- 100.00 ↓
$1700- $2200 ↑
1.1600-1.2150 ↑
1.3500-1.4150 ↑
73.00 - 77.00 ↑
0.7200- 0.7600
IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |
103.00 - 106.00 ↓
Focus to be on the
Advance GDP data
from the US later
today
-
“
”
“
”
“
”
● FII activity against USDINR and Nifty
January 28, 2021
● USDINR Open Interest (February expiry )
DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT
Highest OI for Call &
Put is seen at 74.00
& 73.00. Highest OI
intraday unwinding
for Call is seen at
73.00 & buildup for
Put is seen at 73.50.
IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |
Chart of the DayUSDINR: 73.13
USDINR made a gap up opening today closer to the
middle bollinger band at 73.13 levels. Immediate
resistance to be at 73.35 (Super trend). On the flipside,
72.85-90 is an extremely crucial support zone, break of
which could trigger stops. Major technical indicators
suggest neutral view for intraday.
FIIs have so far
infused $31.72
billion in the
Financial year 2020-
21
Activity Kurtosis
-
LIBOR ON 1M 6M 1Y MONTH 1M 3M 1Y 2Y
USD 0.08 0.12 0.23 0.31 USDINR 0.28 1.00 3.57 7.60
EUR -0.58 -0.58 -0.53 -0.50 EURINR 0.39 1.38 5.11 10.88
JPY 0.04 -0.06 -0.07 0.04 GBPINR 0.40 1.41 5.13 10.87
JPYINR 0.29 1.03 3.78 8.13
REGION LAST % CHANGE LAST CHANGE % CHANGE
ASIA 28721 -1.97 1838.33 -1.19 -0.06
3520 -1.48 25.12 -0.02 -0.09
28229 -1.42 52.57 -0.28 -0.53
INDIA 47075 -0.71 90.76 0.11 0.13
13873 -0.68 109.16 -0.05 -0.05
5460 -1.16
13620 -1.81 FY 2020-21 CY 2021 27-Jan-21
6567 -1.30 2,42,218 23,927 296
US 30303 -2.05 -21,115 -4,063 203
13271 -2.61 10,180 -15 4
2,31,283 19,849 503
“ Pivot S2 S1 P R1 R2USDINR 72.68 72.83 73.06 73.21 73.44
EURINR 87.79 88.30 88.65 89.16 89.51
GBPINR 98.52 99.18 99.75 100.41 100.98
JPYINR 69.95 70.12 70.41 70.58 70.87
”
Currency Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
26-Jan EUR 12:30 PM -15.6 -7.8 -7.3 Bearish
USD 7:00 PM 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% Bearish
28-Jan USD 12:30 AM 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% Neutral
JPY 5:20 AM -0.3% -0.4% 0.6% Bullish
EUR All Day 0.4% 0.5%
USD 7:00 PM 4.2% 33.4%
USD 7:00 AM 880K 900K
IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |
Major Global Events
Macro Monitor
TOTAL
EQUITY
German GfK Consumer Climate
DEBT
German Prelim CPI MoM
Advance GDP QoQ
Unemployment Claims
FTSE
Retail Sales YoY
Durable Goods Orders MoM
Pivot Points
HYBRID
USDINR pair is likely to face immediate
resistance at 73.21 (R1)
DOW
NASDAQ
US Federal Funds Rate
DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT
Figures are in INR Crores
Dollar INDEX
Rolling Forward Premiums (in paise)
CAC
DAX
Major Global Rates
LIBOR Rates
COMMODITIES/DIGLOBAL INDICES
Quick Glance
FPI INFLOWS
Bloomberg ADXY
GOLD ($/ounce)
Brent ($/brl)
SILVER ($/ounce)
HANG SENG
SHANGHAI
NIKKEI
SENSEX
NIFTY
January 28, 2021
-
IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER
While every effort has been made to ensure that the data quoted
and used for the research behind this document is reliable, there
is no guarantee that it is correct, and IFA Global can accept no
liability whatsoever in respect of any errors or omissions, or
regarding the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the
information contained herein. This document does not constitute a
recommendation to sell and/or buy any financial products and is not
to be considered as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into
any transaction. This document is a piece of economic research and
is not intended to constitute investment advice, nor to solicit
dealing in securities or in any other kind of investments. Although
every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss
trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore
if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware
of the risks associated with this product so you can make an
informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here
is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. IFA Global
makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but
we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In
addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data
in this material change. Any prices stated in this report are for
information purposes only and do not represent valuations for
individual securities or other instruments.
Headquarters:-
India Forex Advisors Pvt. Ltd.H-125, 1st Floor, Kanakia Zillion,
LBS Marg,
CST Road Junction, BandraKurla Complex Annexe, Kurla
West,Mumbai-400070
For further Information on FX advisory services,Contact us at
:91 8879390076
Or you can mail us on: [email protected] can also visit our
website: www.ifaglobal.net
