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Logica Capital December 2020 LOGICAFUNDS.COM 424.652.9520
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Logica Capital - December 2020 Summary
Logica Absolute Return - Upside/Downside Convexity - No Correlation
Logica Tail Risk - Max Downside Convexity - Negative Correlation
December 2020 Performance*
Logica Absolute Return +0.4%
Logica Tail Risk -0.6%
S&P500 +3.3%
VIX +2.2 pts
2020 Performance*
Logica Absolute Return +14.9%
Logica Tail Risk +15.1%
S&P500 +17.4%
*Returns are Gross of fees to illustrate strategy performance.
Logica Absolute Return Fund, LP returned +0.13% (net) for December 2020
Summary: Equity markets continued their strong performance in December, but volatility found
a floor which contributed to positive returns for the month. Markets bear an increasing
resemblance to late stage 1999, with total short interest outstanding nearing record lows.
Logica Capital December 2020 LOGICAFUNDS.COM 424.652.9520
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“Just the facts, Ma’am”
As discussed below, we continue to believe markets are fragile and expensive. While
short covering and optimism continues to drive increasingly inelastic markets higher, we
continue to carry a sizeable Put load with a recognition that protection is both necessary
and difficult to find.
“The first step towards getting somewhere is to decide you’re not going to stay
where you are.” – J.P. Morgan
All of us at Logica hope that you, your colleagues, and your families remain healthy and
optimistic for 2021. We wanted to take this opportunity to express our gratitude at your
interest in our work and bring you up to date on our accomplishments over the last year.
2020 started with the launch of Logica Absolute Return as equity markets around the
world accelerated to new all-time highs and a long volatility approach appeared to make
little sense. In March, that narrative was challenged, and the utility of long volatility
became obvious. In that confusing time, we made a novel statement:
“If we are right and we are unlikely to see substantive changes to the market
structure, then the unavoidable conclusion is that markets could aggressively
reprice higher as money flows into passive strategies; this becomes particularly
true if the United States is engaged in a pattern of aggressive stimulus… As
substantive changes are not likely to be made, we are forced to expect more of
the same.” Policy in a World of Pandemics, March 26, 2020
This observation turned out to be truer than even we could have forecast, with global
markets rapidly returning to their pre-Covid trendlines and exceeding them to a near
record degree:
Logica Capital December 2020 LOGICAFUNDS.COM 424.652.9520
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Ironically, while our broad forecast panned out, the degree to which the recovery
exceeded expectations, and the related rapid decline in volatility alongside the market’s
violent recovery, opened the door to a challenging summer for long volatility investing.
Who would have known that a best possible period, immediately followed by a worst
possible period, would mark our Fund’s first year out of the gate!
From our perspective, this was altogether a positive, giving us both the opportunity to
shine where we do our best -- market implosions -- and get better at navigating these
challenging markets. As we highlight in this letter, we do not believe that the events of
early 2020 will be unique.
“Enthusiasm just creates bubbles; it doesn't keep them from popping..”
Adora Svitak
As 2020 gave way to 2021, we managed to find a bit of a floor in equity volatility which
set the stage for a modest gain in the month of December. This is obviously welcome.
However, we continued the unusual pattern of VIX up, S&P up. While overall, 2020
maintained the pattern of negative correlation between the VIX and the S&P500, relative
to its 40-year history this was certainly an extreme year.
Logica Capital December 2020 LOGICAFUNDS.COM 424.652.9520
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In fact, 2020 was the first year since the aftermath of the DotCom bubble and the
restructuring of the S&P 500 from market-cap weighted to float-weighted (which
eliminated unintended excess buying of stocks with high levels of insider ownership) in
which we saw a sustained pattern of elevated volatility created by higher single stock
volatility rather than correlation spikes. While single stock volatility began to rise in
2017, setting the stage for the XIV implosion in February 2018, 2020 has sustained
these unusually high volatility levels. Like the 1998-2000 time period, we have seen an
unprecedented increase in valuations which has extended further into the end of 2020.
Starting valuations in 2021 are the highest in recorded history.
Logica Capital December 2020 LOGICAFUNDS.COM 424.652.9520
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In a further nod to the 1998-2000 allegory, we have seen a strong bias towards larger,
higher quality companies (e.g. AAPL, MSFT, etc) give way to an enthusiasm for small,
more speculative companies that represent “the future.” Prior periods of rapid recovery
of small stocks versus their style equivalent large brethren have not been particularly
favorable for a continuation. The possible exception of December 2016 is worth noting.
Logica Capital December 2020 LOGICAFUNDS.COM 424.652.9520
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Does the Rise in Passive Investing Contribute to this?
A recently released whitepaper by Hao Jiang of Michigan State University provides a
clue why this occurs:
In this paper we study theoretically and empirically how the growth of passive
investing impacts stock prices…Flows raise disproportionately the prices of large
capitalization stocks in the S&P500 index relative to the prices of the index’s small
stocks… an increase in the measure of non-experts, which triggers asset
purchases, generates a larger percentage price increase for the assets in high
noise-trader demand. An increase in the measure of non-experts that is
accompanied by an equal decrease in the measure of experts generates an even
stronger effect in the same direction.
The relationship between noise-trader demand, volatility and price impact is
easiest to understand in the case where an asset is in such large demand that
experts must short it in equilibrium. A positive shock to the asset’s expected
dividends causes the asset’s price to rise. The experts’ short position thus becomes
larger and carries more risk. As a consequence, experts become more willing to
unwind their position and to buy the asset. Their buying pressure amplifies the
price rise, resulting in high volatility per share.
Jiang, Vayanos and Zheng, December 2020
In other words, a positive shock to expected dividends, e.g. a COV-19 vaccine, results in
aggressive short covering of riskier and shorted positions that causes prices to rise much
more than would be expected in a non-passive index dominated environment – a perfect
explanation for the behavior we have seen since the dramatic stimulus introduced in March
2020. However, once the short covering has been completed, the demand for these “non-
expert/noise trader” dominated
stocks deteriorates and the
passive forces reassert
themselves. Current short
interest is near the lowest on
record after nearly $275B of
shorts have been covered in the
last nine months.
Perhaps it is different this time,
but with the incoming Biden
administration looking to
expand access to low-cost
passive investing (including a
potential reintroduction of the
DoL Fiduciary Rule and,
stunningly, a consideration of a
required “financial literacy test”
for workers to opt out of Target
Date Funds), we remain
skeptical.
Logica Capital December 2020 LOGICAFUNDS.COM 424.652.9520
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“When much is taken, something is returned.”
Terry Pratchett, Nation, 2008
With the upcoming inauguration of Joe Biden as President of the United States and the
Democrat sweep of Georgia, the markets are focused on the ideas of stimulus sweeping
the nation. We think it is worthwhile considering the opposite. In March 2021, for the first
time since December 2018, we see a confluence of events that create the potential for a
significant outflow from equity markets. Like March 2000, we have seen a year of
extraordinary gains for many investors in both speculative options and speculative assets
like Bitcoin. On options, the introduction of commission-less trading on platforms like
Robinhood have led to an explosion of short-dated trading that is taxable at ordinary
income rates. Hopefully, none of our investors took their profits on Bitcoin, but the gains
here become taxable as well. An informal Twitter poll conducted in late December 2020
suggested that roughly 73% of the investors polled were letting their winnings ride and
roughly half had banked profits to pay taxes.
2021 faces not only a significant tax bill for many investors as of April 15th
, but we also see
the return of Required Minimum Distributions from 401Ks and IRAs. The SECURE Act of
2019 was signed into law in December 2019 and pushed the age for mandatory
distributions from 70.5 to 72. This created a roughly eighteen-month window during which
aging Baby Boomers were not required to sell from their retirement accounts. March 2021
will be the first required selling since March 2019. Fortunately, this is a minor period where
only those who turned 72 in 2020 will be required to take their first distributions. A second
distribution occurs in Dec 2021. Both of these periods represent potential net distributions
of equities, but the confluence of the March RMD with potential tax selling is certainly
worth keeping in mind as market participants grow increasingly giddy with the prospect of
stimulus.
2020 – A Breakout Year for Logica
Against a work-from-home backdrop, we were able to proceed with our growth strategy,
introducing our first commingled product, the Logica Absolute Return Fund, on April 1st,
2020. The onshore fund was complemented by our offshore variant, Logica Absolute
Return Offshore, on November 1st. Firm assets under management have grown rapidly,
and as we exit 2020 we have successfully met our short-term goal of growing assets above
Logica Capital December 2020 LOGICAFUNDS.COM 424.652.9520
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$100MM, a level that has allowed us to begin making significant investments for product
enhancement and infrastructure improvement.
Notable 2020 Achievements
• Launch of LAR and LARO LPs
• AUM growth from $15MM to >$100MM
• New additions to Logica Team – in addition to Michael Green joining us as
Chief Strategist in January, we are excited to add Joe Tagliaferro as our Chief
Operating Officer and Jeff Press as our Chief Compliance Officer
• Successfully navigated the effect of lockdowns – Logica was able to execute
our remote location and disaster recovery protocols and execute against both
ongoing business dynamics and growth objectives
Logica in the news
• Since the introduction of Logica Absolute Return, Logica has been privileged
to appear in several publications and podcasts. A list of podcasts are available
on our website for those with interest.
• Our website traffic has risen from negligible in 2019 to nearly 220,000 unique
visits in 2020
• Our most popular research piece, Policy in a World of Pandemics, was
downloaded over 17,000 times
• Our white paper “The Illusion of Skill” has been viewed or downloaded over
4,000 times
R&D advances
• Introduction of Logica Absolute Return which extends the Logica strategies
from our down-capture focused product to a vehicle capable of capturing
market upside as well as downside
• Introduction of “anti-momentum” module (LFB) which added to LAR return for
2020 vs baseline models
• Revisions to the Logica process to better capitalize on increased implied
volatility associated with single stock earnings associated with our momentum
module (LFT)
• Improved diversification versus traditional momentum factors with a new
module built to capture complementary factor exposures (LFD)
• Improved handling of volatility contraction environments with a toggle
between single stock call options and index call options tied to implied
correlation insights
• Improved capital utilization through integration of futures contracts and
options on futures with Logica’s core securities modules
• Increased robustness and depth of our testing framework, resulting in faster
and more efficient innovation.
Objectives for 2021
• SEC registration to complement Logica’s existing registration with the state of
California
• Continued team build out and AUM growth
• Full deployment of 2020 research insights
• Continue to provide competitive performance
• Return to the office!
Logica Capital December 2020 LOGICAFUNDS.COM 424.652.9520
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Again, thank you for joining us on this adventure and we look forward to an exciting
2021.
Business Update
Logica Absolute Return Offshore Fund
As previously discussed, Logica has launched the offshore version of the Logica Absolute
Return Fund. We are thrilled to announce our first institutional relationships underpinning
this launch and look forward to an increasingly favorable environment.
Logica Strategy Details
Note: We have comprehensive statistics and metrics available for our strategies, but only
include a select few to highlight what we believe is our most valuable contribution to any
larger portfolio.
If you would like to learn more about our strategies, please reach out to Steven
Greenblatt at [email protected] 424-652-9520.
Notes:
1) Tracking Biased Weights: Asset Pricing Implications of Value-Weighted Indexing, Jiang et
al
https://personal.lse.ac.uk/vayanos/WPapers/TBWAPIVWI.pdf
Follow Wayne on Twitter @WayneHimelsein
Follow Michael on Twitter @ProfPlum99
Logica Capital December 2020 LOGICAFUNDS.COM 424.652.9520
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Logica Absolute Return
2015-2019 stats & grid, reconstitution of live sub-strategies normalized to 16% annualized volatility
2005 to present growth of $1000 chart, simulation
Jan 2020 live with partner capital
Logica Capital December 2020 LOGICAFUNDS.COM 424.652.9520
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Logica Tail Risk
2015-2019 stats & grid, reconstitution of live sub-strategies normalized to 16% annualized volatility
2005 to present growth of $1000 chart, simulation