Load Forecasting within Vermont & New England

Docket 7081 workshop

9/13/05

9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop 2

What forecasts exist?

• ISO-NE publishes annual forecasts within their Capacity, Energy, Loads and Transmission report (CELT)– This report now includes forecasts for all of New

England and by state

• The DPS has from time to time created a state-wide load forecast, with the last one created in 2002

• VELCO examines, on a regular basis, historic information for comparison against existing forecasts

9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop 3

What methodologies are used in these forecasts

• ISO-NE uses information provided in FERC 715 submittals to create a state by state, and with historical load information, creates a load database which is then weather normalized to provide regional and state peak load forecasts– This forecast includes a set of predicted peak loads

for the potential spectrum of weather– ISO-NE’s methodology is available at:

• http://www.iso-ne.com/trans/celt/fsct_detail/index.html

9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop 4

What is the latest ISO-NE forecast for New England?

9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop 5

How do the latest Vermont peak load forecasts compare?

Year 2005 CELT 90/10 2005 CELT 50/50 2004 CELT 90/10 DPS 2002

2004 - - 1085 1060

2005 1100 1045 1105 1073

2006 1130 1070 1120 1109

2007 1145 1085 1130 1130

2008 1160 1100 1145 1145

2009 1175 1115 1155 1164

2010 1185 1125 1170 1182

2011 1200 1140 1185 1202

2012 1210 1150 1200 1224

9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop 6

What is the historic data VELCO would use for a forecast?

Vermont seasonal peaks

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

1980 to 2005

VT

lo

ad max sum

max win

9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop 7

What might the short-term trend be?

9/13/05 Docket 7081 Workshop 8

What information can VELCO provide to

assist this process? • VELCO has VT-wide load information from 1991 to today• VELCO has detailed information within the state from

2002 to today– Can examine load trends in specific areas within the state based

on subtransmission information VELCO now has– Can correlate the load information with temperature information

we are collecting around the state– This information will be used to provide better information to the

ISO-NE and DPS forecasting efforts