8/9/2019 Lloyds TSB JUL 21 Daily Economic Outlook
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Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets Economic Research, 10 Gresham
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Wednesday, 21st July 2010Daily Economic OutlookEconomic
Research
Prices taken at London close; Swap rate quote conventions:UK -
Semi, Actual/365 vs. 6MLibor; US - Annually, Actual/360 vs. 3M
Libor; Euro - Annually, 30/360 vs. 6M Euribor. Swaprates are quoted
as Ask prices
Key data and events todayCountry Time Events Consensus Forecast
PreviousJN - Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report
UK 09:30 Bank of England releases MPC minutes from its 7/8th
July meeting
EC 10:15 Germany to sell 4B of 30-year bonds and 1B of 10yr
index linked notes
US 19:00 Bernanke gives Monetary Policy report to Senate Banking
Panel
BZ - Brazil SELIC interest rate decision 11.00% 11.00%
10.25%
Key data and events over the week aheadDay Country Event
Thu 22 CA Retail sales (May), Retail sales less autos (May),
Bank of Canada MonetaryPolicy report and press conference
EC PMI manufacturing (Jul) P, PMI services (Jul) P, Industrial
new orders sa
(May), Consumer confidence (Jul)FR Business confidence indicator
(Jul), Production outlook indicator (Jul),
Consumer confidence indicator (Jul), PMI manufacturing (Jul) P,
PMI services(Jul) P
GE PMI manufacturing (Jul) P, PMI services (Jul) P
SA South Africa interest rates, South African Reserve Bank
interest rate decision
UK Retail sales ex auto fuel (Jun), Retail sales w/auto fuel
(Jun)
US Initial jobless claims (w/e Jul 17), Leading indicators
(Jun), Existing homesales (Jun), Bernanke gives Monetary Policy
report to House Banking Panel
Fri 23 CA Consumer price index (Jun), Core CPI (Jun)
EC ECBs Gonzalez-Paramo speaks in San Sebastian
FR Consumer spending (Jun)
GE IFO - business climate (Jul), IFO - current assessment (Jul),
IFO - expectations(Jul)
UK GDP (Q2) P, BBA loans for house purchase (Jun)
Mon 26 AU PPI
BZ Current account, Foreign investment
JN Merchnds trade balance
TU Capacity utilization, Industrial confidence, 2013 fixed rate
bonds auction
UK Hometrack housing survey
US Chicago fed nat activity index, New home sales, Dallas fed
manf. activity,Treasury's Brainard delivers address in
Washington
Tue 27 AU Conference board leading index
BZ FIPE CPI, Total outstanding loans, Private banks lending,
Centraal Govtbudget
EC M3
FR Jobseekers net change
GE GfK consumer confidence survey
JN Corp service price index, 2-yhear bonds auctionMX Global
economic indicator
TU 2017 floating ratenotes & 2011 zero-coupon bonds
auction
UK CBI reported sales
US S&P/CaseShiller home price index, Richmond fed maanu.
index, Consumerconfidence, 2-year notes auction
Marketsurrenc es c ange on ay
/$ 1.290 -0.36/$ 1.528 0.30/ 0.844 -0.66/ 1.185 0.66/CHF 1.601
-0.38/ 133.27 0.94
$/ 87.24 0.63Equities % change (on day)Dow Jones 10066.7
-0.86S&P 500 1064.7 -0.61FTSE 100 5139.5 -0.17Nikkei 225 9300.5
-1.15
DJ Eurostoxx 2627.3 -0.28Commodities (US$) % change (on day)Oil
WTI, near-term future 76.98 0.57
Gold spot 1190.2 0.61
The highlight of the day promises to be Fed Chairman
Bernanke'spresentation of the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to
the USSenate. The US economy appears to be losing some momentumand
with renewed risks of deflation the markets will focus on
anyindication that further policy easing may be on the horizon.
In the UK, the attention will be on July's Bank of England MPC
Minutes.Last month saw one member, Andrew Sentance, voting for a
25bpincrease in the Bank Rate. Given his recent comments, it is
almostcertain he would have done the same again in July. But once
againwe think he was most probably alone in arguing for higher
rates andexpect to see another 7-1 vote.
The only other event of significance is the central bank
decision out ofBrazil where we expect to see a 75bp rate increase
to 11%. Rates areforecast to end 2010 at 12%.
Chart: Bank of England Bank Rate (%)
nterest rates p c ange on ay
UK Official Bank Rate 0.50 0.0
3-mth interbank 0.74 0.02-yr swap 1.38 1.85-yr swap 2.41
1.210-yr swap 3.36 0.6UK 10-yr benchmark 3.36 0.4
US Fed Funds rate 0.25 0.0
3-mth Libor 0.51 -0.52-yr swap 0.80 -1.85-yr swap 1.90 -3.6
10-yr swap 2.95 -3.5US 10-yr benchmark 2.92 -3.1
EUR ECB policy rate 1.00 0.0
3-mth Euribor 0.81 0.32-yr swap 1.41 -1.75-yr swap 2.10
-2.810-yr swap 2.87 -3.3Euro 10-yr benchmark 2.64 -1.5
Japan Call rate 0.10 0.0
3-mth interbank 0.24 0.05-yr swap 0.58 2.410-yr JGB benchmark
1.10 0.5
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
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8/9/2019 Lloyds TSB JUL 21 Daily Economic Outlook
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