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LivingstonTownship Schools
LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
IntroductionIntroduction
Enrollment Projections 101
Livingston Twp. Demographics
District & School Projections
Enrollment Projections 101
Livingston Twp. Demographics
District & School Projections
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Mandated Spreadsheet FormatLong Range Facilities Plan
Cohort Survival Methodologyor Percent of Population
Based on
Historic Enrollments & Birth Rates
Acceptable Modificationsthrough Certified Demographers Report
Mandated Spreadsheet FormatLong Range Facilities Plan
Cohort Survival Methodologyor Percent of Population
Based on
Historic Enrollments & Birth Rates
Acceptable Modificationsthrough Certified Demographers Report
NJ DOE Enrollment ProjectionsNJ DOE Enrollment Projections
Planning SciencesStatistical Analysis
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
220 Live Births were recorded in 1996 and 278 students entered Kindergarten in 2001CSR = 278/228 = 1.264
339 students in 2nd Grade in 2003 “survived” from 321 students in 2002CSR = 339/321 = 1.056
The 1st to 2nd Grade 5-Year Average CSR is 1.049
220 Live Births were recorded in 1996 and 278 students entered Kindergarten in 2001CSR = 278/228 = 1.264
339 students in 2nd Grade in 2003 “survived” from 321 students in 2002CSR = 339/321 = 1.056
The 1st to 2nd Grade 5-Year Average CSR is 1.049
Cohort Survival MethodCohort Survival Method
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
223 Kindergarten students are factored by the 1.190 CSR to project 265 students in the 1st Grade of the first year of the projection
The 1st to 2nd Grade 6-Year Average CSR is 1.049.
The 256 students in 1st Grade are projected to survive as 278 2nd Graders
223 Kindergarten students are factored by the 1.190 CSR to project 265 students in the 1st Grade of the first year of the projection
The 1st to 2nd Grade 6-Year Average CSR is 1.049.
The 256 students in 1st Grade are projected to survive as 278 2nd Graders
Cohort Survival ProjectionCohort Survival Projection
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Charter Schools
Private & Parochial School Status
Interdistrict School Choice Program
Changes in Curriculum: Early Ed, Special Ed
Seasonal Fluctuations
Impact of additional housing beyond the historic average
Housing Mix : Types and Number of Bedrooms
Multipliers for Public School Children by housing type and number of bedrooms
Impact of Age Restricted Housing on Existing Housing Re-Sales
Charter Schools
Private & Parochial School Status
Interdistrict School Choice Program
Changes in Curriculum: Early Ed, Special Ed
Seasonal Fluctuations
Impact of additional housing beyond the historic average
Housing Mix : Types and Number of Bedrooms
Multipliers for Public School Children by housing type and number of bedrooms
Impact of Age Restricted Housing on Existing Housing Re-Sales
Modifications to ProjectionsModifications to Projections
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Township and District LocationTownship and District Location
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Charter, Private and Parochial SchoolsCharter, Private and Parochial Schools
PRIVATE SCHOOLS
Aquinas Academy Kushner Hebrew Academy Newark Academy
310720565
Sinai School Horizon High School The Milton School
50 87 40
CHARTER SCHOOLS - None
CHOICE SCHOOLS - None
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Comparative Population GrowthComparative Population Growth
30,127
29,366
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Population by Age GroupPopulation by Age Group
Type Age 1990 2000 2010Pre-School 0-4 1,470 447 1,917 -246 1,671School Age 5-17 4,641 726 5,367 895 6,262
Childbearing 18-39 7,443 -1,345 6,098 -914 5,184Middle Age 40-64 9,442 346 9,788 1,519 11,307
Seniors 65 + 3,613 608 4,221 721 4,94226,609 27,391 29,366
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Population PyramidPopulation Pyramid
Male Female
Child Bearing Age
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
District BirthsDistrict Births
2010 Birth Rates: NationNew JerseyLivingston
13.5 12.6 7.3
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Residential Resales Residential Resales
5.2% Avg. Annual
7.6%
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Residential Construction Residential Construction
5-year average = 16
2005 peak = 411
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Proposed Residential Construction Proposed Residential Construction
PROJECT andNumber of Units 1 Bdrm 2 Bdrm 3 Bdrm SubT 1 Bdrm 2 Bdrm SubT Total
0-5 Yrs Hillside-Northfield 3 9 4 16 16 48 64 80TMB Partners 3 7 2 12 25 25 50 62
6 16 6 28 41 73 114 142
5-10 Yrs Kushner Academy 9 27 9 45 91 90 181 226Squiretown 8 27 9 44 88 88 176 220
17 54 18 89 179 178 357 446
588
AFFORDABLE MARKET
588 units of multi-family residential construction will impact the Livingston enrollment within 10 years.
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Students from Residential Construction Students from Residential Construction
125 new students will be generated from the four planned housing projects. 31 students arrive during the initial five-year projection. 94 students arrive during the extended five-year projection.
1 Bdrm 2 Bdrm 3 Bdrm SubT 1 Bdrm 2 Bdrm SubT Total MULTIPLIERS for 0.140 0.620 1.270 0.060 0.135Public School Children
Hillside-Northfield 0.4 5.6 5.1 11.1 1.0 6.5 7.4 18.5TMB Partners 0.4 4.3 2.5 7.3 1.5 3.4 4.9 12.2
0.8 9.9 7.6 18.4 2.5 9.9 12.3 30.7 31
Kushner Academy 1.26 16.74 11.43 29.4 5.46 12.15 17.6 47.04Squiretown 1.12 16.74 11.43 29.3 5.28 11.88 17.2 46.45
2.38 33.48 22.86 58.7 10.74 24.03 34.8 93.49 94125
AFFORDABLE MARKET
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
New Students by Elementary SchoolNew Students by Elementary School
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1 Bdrm 2 Bdrm 3 Bdrm SubT 1 Bdrm 2 Bdrm SubT Totalsay
Burnet Hill 0.4 4.3 2.5 7.3 1.5 3.4 4.9 12.2 13Riker Hill 2.8 39.1 27.9 69.8 11.7 30.5 42.2 112.0 112
3.2 43.4 30.5 77.1 13.2 33.9 47.1 124.2 125
AFFORDABLE MARKET
LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Returning Special Education StudentsReturning Special Education Students
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2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 cont'g
Burnet Hill ES 3 6 9 12 12 12Harrison ES 3 6 6 6Mt. Pleasant ES 3 6 9 12 12 12
Heritage MS 3 6 6 6 6 6
Livingston HS 3 6 9 12
TOTAL 9 18 30 42 45 48
LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Demographics Summary Demographics Summary
2000-2010 Population growth is minor
Growth aligned with County, less than State
Live Births Declining, in line with recession
Pre-School and Childbearing Age populations all slightly decreasing
School Age, Middle Age and Senior populations are increasing
Residential Construction significant decrease
but…four projects are planned
Under 5 Age group decreased by 246
School Age group increased by 895
…so what’s up???
2000-2010 Population growth is minor
Growth aligned with County, less than State
Live Births Declining, in line with recession
Pre-School and Childbearing Age populations all slightly decreasing
School Age, Middle Age and Senior populations are increasing
Residential Construction significant decrease
but…four projects are planned
Under 5 Age group decreased by 246
School Age group increased by 895
…so what’s up???
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Explanations and Implications Explanations and Implications
It’s all about in-migration…
The rate of turnover of existing housing with purchases by younger families in their early childbearing years is down.
Trends to remain the same? Yes, except for Special Ed and Housing
It’s all about in-migration…
The rate of turnover of existing housing with purchases by younger families in their early childbearing years is down.
Trends to remain the same? Yes, except for Special Ed and Housing
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
District-wide Enrollment Projections
District-wide Enrollment Projections
Historic increase of 181 students per year
Projected growth of 148 students, then decline by 149
Extended overall decline of 84 students to new low
Historic increase of 181 students per year
Projected growth of 148 students, then decline by 149
Extended overall decline of 84 students to new low
5862 Peak
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Pre-K to Gr 5 Enrollment Projections Pre-K to Gr 5 Enrollment Projections
13-year decrease of 269 studentsAbout 45 students per Grade Level
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Gr 6-8 Enrollment Projections Gr 6-8 Enrollment Projections
Overall 9-year increase of 198 studentsUltimate decrease of 214 students
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Gr 9-12 Enrollment Projections Gr 9-12 Enrollment Projections
Overall 13-year increase of 288 students
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Burnet Hill ES Enrollment Projections Burnet Hill ES Enrollment Projections
Overall 10-year decrease by 55 studentsOverall 10-year decrease by 55 students
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Collins ES Enrollment Projections Collins ES Enrollment Projections
Slow decrease of 51 students over 7 yearsSlow decrease of 51 students over 7 years
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Harrison ES Enrollment Projections
Harrison ES Enrollment Projections
Slow decrease of 78 students over 10 yearsSlow decrease of 78 students over 10 years
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Hillside ES Enrollment Projections Hillside ES Enrollment Projections
Slow decrease of 81 students over 11 yearsSlow decrease of 81 students over 11 years
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Mt. Pleasant ES Enrollment Projections Mt. Pleasant ES Enrollment Projections
Increase of 54 students over 6 years
Decrease of 44 students over 7 years
Increase of 54 students over 6 years
Decrease of 44 students over 7 years
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Riker Hill ES Enrollment Projections Riker Hill ES Enrollment Projections
7-year valley resulting in 8 student decrease
8-year valley resulting in 14 student decrease
7-year valley resulting in 8 student decrease
8-year valley resulting in 14 student decrease
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Mt. Pleasant MS Enrollment Projections Mt. Pleasant MS Enrollment Projections
Peak in year 2014 at 490 students
3-year and 4-year decreases, 134 students
Peak in year 2014 at 490 students
3-year and 4-year decreases, 134 students
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Heritage MS Enrollment Projections Heritage MS Enrollment Projections
Peak in year 2015 at 975 students
2nd Peak in 2020, ultimate 115 student decrease
Peak in year 2015 at 975 students
2nd Peak in 2020, ultimate 115 student decrease
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LIVINGSTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Comparative Enrollment by Grade Level OrganizationComparative Enrollment by Grade Level Organization
Elementary enrollment peaked in 2006
Middle School Enrollment peaks in 2015
High School Enrollment peaks in 2019
Elementary enrollment peaked in 2006
Middle School Enrollment peaks in 2015
High School Enrollment peaks in 2019
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Thank YouThank You
Sundance Associates117 Greenvale Ct.
Cherry Hill, NJ 08034Tel 856-755-0174
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