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2.25% for 2019
0.25 Basis Point Drop in Half of 2020
Climate Change
The Inconvenient
Truth
Peak in demand growth in the early 2030s ◦ Slower chemicals growth ◦ Peak transport demand as fuel economy, ◦ Electrification, & reduced car ownership
Sources of Oil - (1) OPEC, (2) US shale oil and (3) Canada & selected basins
Sufficient supply and cost discipline keeps long term average prices at USD$65-75/bbl
By 2035, under our base case E&P companies need to add >40 MMb/d of new crude production from mainly offshore and shale unsanctioned projects to meet demand, and ~4- 5% of these new additions will come from YTF resources – source - McKinsey
China: From 2006 to 2017 China commissioned 692 GW of coal-fired capacity, more than twice the amount commissioned in the rest of the world combined.
The rapid expansion coupled with a 2015 to 2016 spurt in provincial coal permitting is now competing with the country’s ambitious renewable goals, leading to a power overcapacity crisis.
China continues to lead the world in the amount of coal power capacity under development, with 116 GW of pre-construction capacity and 95 GW under construction.
Perhaps no country better exemplifies the rapidly changing energy economic landscape than India.
The country added 152 GW of coal power capacity from 2006 to 2017, second only to China.
Yet renewable energy costs have fallen 50% in two years (BNEF 2017), and in financial year 2016–2017, India for the first time added more renewable energy capacity than thermal power capacity.
In 2017 the Ministry of Power reported that 89% of existing coal plant capacity, or 166GW, was not in compliance with the country’s sulphur dioxide emission limits.
The Paris Agreement, under which they committed to taking steps to limit the increase in global average temperature this century to well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over preindustrial levels, and ultimately to limit that increase to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).
The agreement has been dramatically counter-productive because targets were not applied equally and globally.
Of the 192 countries that signed on in 1997, only the 37 developed countries had to agree to reduce emissions.
The undeveloped nations — notably China and India — had no restrictions placed on them. ◦ They argued that restrictions on emissions would
hold back their economic development.
US & China Produce 40% of
the CO2
Collectively, the top 15 generate 72% of CO2 emissions. The rest of the world’s 180 countries produce nearly 28% of the global total – close to the amount China produces on its own.
Developing countries’ emissions have soared, which has allowed them to keep their costs low based on the burning of cheap local coal as their principal energy source.
This patchwork quilt of regulation has resulted in a gigantic global arbitrage — companies from countries with restrictions — have moved plants or outsourced energy-intensive products such as steel and cement to environmentally dirty nations.
For instance, Canada’s imports of steel jumped between 2018 and 2019 alone by 87 per cent, bought, directly or indirectly, from countries not bound by the Kyoto-Paris Agreement. Germany and the United States have done the same. Source: Diane Francis – Financial Post
Allowing Canada to build pipelines to export its oil, with relatively low emissions, and to build natural gas pipelines and LNG projects on both coasts. ◦ Every single energy molecule that is exported from
Canada to Asia or elsewhere replaces their need to burn dirty coal, or to fuel their vehicles with electricity generated by coal.
Americans have dozens of LNG export projects completed or under construction and Canada, with one of the biggest natural gas endowments on the planet, has been unable to get one built
The inconvenient truth is that for every pipeline and well and LNG plant that is not built in Canada, the Chinese and Indians will simply burn more dirty coal. - Source Diane Francis – Financial Post
Agreed to increase the purchase of US goods and services by at least US$200 billion over the next two years,
Suspend retaliatory tariffs also scheduled for Sunday, implement intellectual property safeguards, and have a tariff exclusion process in place.
China has committed to increase purchases of U.S. agriculture products by $32 billion over two years. That would average an annual total of about $40 billion, compared to a baseline of $24 billion in 2017 before the trade war started.
BALANCE ?
2,838 3,015 3,244
3,472 3,742 3,853 3,854
4,187 4,589 4,768 4,940 5,011 5,141 5,253 5,351 5,486
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Source:
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WCS (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl)
West Texas Intermediate Vs. Western Canada Select (US/bbl)
0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Net lending/borrowing (Gen. Govt.) as percent of GDP
Canada Advanced Economies
Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies Low-Income Developing Countries
Title
Factors Effecting Canadian Economy ◦ Global Economy – Weak Global Trade ◦ US/China Trade Deal – US/EU Trade Deal ◦ China/Canada ◦ Oil Pipeline Capacity ◦ Tight Labour Market ◦ Mixed mining Results ◦ Possibility of Increased Interest Rates ◦ Monetary Policy ◦ Minority Government ◦ Canadian Dollar ◦ Improving Housing Market
The Perfect Storm - Factors Effecting Saskatchewan Economy ◦ US/China Trade Deal ◦ China/Canada ◦ India/Canada ◦ Spring Weather/Fall Weather ◦ Demand for Oil/Potash ◦ Oil Pipeline Capacity ◦ Mixed mining Results ◦ Retail sales contracted 0.8% ◦ High Housing Inventories ◦ Unemployment Rate is up to ◦ 5.4%
Exports Declined 4%
Saskatewan Agriculture
Farmers intend to plant 94.1 million acres of corn next year, up 4.5 percent from the 90 million planted this year,
Farmers intend to plant 83.6 million acres of soybeans 2020, nine percent more than 2019, but 5.6 million below the 89.2 million acres planted in 2018.
Hard red winter wheat seedings are expected to increase 1.3 percent to 23 million acres, and soft red winter wheat seedings could also increase.
World durum production fell by 3 Mt from 2018-19 to 35.1 Mt, while supply decreased by 2.3 Mt to 45.5 Mt, according to the International Grains Council.
Use is expected to rise by 0.4 Mt to 37.8 Mt. Carry out stocks are forecast to fall by 2.8 Mt to
7.6 Mt, the lowest since 2012-13. US durum production fell by 0.64 Mt from 2018-
19 to 1.48 Mt, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The average Canadian crop year producer price for durum is forecast to rise from 2018-19 due to lower world, Canadian and US supply.
Durum production decreased by 13% from 2018/19 to 4.98 million tonnes (Mt) ◦ 21% lower seeded area was partly offset by higher average yields. ◦ Total supply decreased by 7%, as the lower production was partly offset by higher carry-in stocks.
Exports are forecast to increase by 6% to 4.8 Mt due to stronger demand resulting from a decrease in world production.
Carryout stocks are forecast to fall by 49% from 2018-19 to 0.85 Mt, 39% lower than the past five year average of 1.4 Mt.
Production to increase by 2.2mt to 36.5mt
Supply is expected to fall 0.4mt to 43.6mt on lower carry-in stocks
US Durum is to rise 025mt to 1.71mt
Seeded area to increase by 15% Production rise by 19% to 5.9mt Supply Stable Exports stable Carry Out to Rise by 11% or 1mt Carry Out Stocks ◦ 2018-2019 2019/20 2020/21 ◦ 1.792 mt .900mt 1.000mt
175
225
275
325
375
425
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Sask 1 Durum Wheat
Durum
CROP My Farm Top 20% Soil Zone Brown Dark Brown REVENUE PER ACRE Target Yield (bu./ac) (A) 52.9 60.6 Estimated Farm Gate Price ($/bu.) (B) 6.5 6.5 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/ac) (AxB)=C 0 343.85 393.9 Expenses Per Acre Variable Expenses/Acre Seed 27.3 30.16 -Seed Treatments/Inoculants 9.6 10.61 Fertilizer -Nitrogen 43.76 50.3 -Phosphorous (P2O5) 15.37 17.63 -Sulphur and Other 0 0 Plant Protection -Herbicides 34.8 34.8 -Insecticides 6.07 6.07 -Fungicides 11.85 11.85 Machinery Operating -Fuel 12.32 15.4 -Repair 8.57 9.66 Custom Work and Hired Labour 22.3 22.05 Crop Insurance Premium 5.2 5.89 Utilities and Miscellaneous 3.11 4.11 Interest on Variable Expenses 4.58 5 Total Variable Expenses (D) 0 204.83 223.53 Farm Income 0 139.02 170.37 Fixed Expenses Building Repair 0.47 0.63 Property Taxes 3.91 5.11 Business Overhead 2.08 3.18 Total Fixed Expenses 6.46 8.92
Off Farm Income 0 12.73 12.73 Living Costs 0 15.25 15.25 Debt Payment Per Acre 0 60.00 60.00 Total Fixed Requirements 0 57.48 57.48
Residual for Growth 0 $75.08 $103.97
DSR 0 2.42 2.96
41,508
56,240
37,720
52,091 59,080 61,044
72,529
85,167
71,685 73,500
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Russian Wheat Production (MT)
Source: USDA
3,983
21,627
11,308
18,609 22,800
25,546 27,815
41,431
35,838 34,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Russian Wheat Exports (MT)
Source: USDA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Production Exports
Source: USDA
13,736
10,899
4,933 5,177 6,287 5,604
10,823 12,026
7,819 8,294
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Russian Wheat Ending Stocks (MT)
Source: USDA
US all wheat production is forecast to fall by 2.8 Mt from 2019-20 to 49.5 Mt.
On January 10, the USDA reported that the area seeded to winter wheat, the major wheat type in the US, for 2020 is estimated at 30.8 million acres, 1% lower than 2019 and down 5% from 2018.
This is the second lowest US acreage on record. Supply of all wheat is projected to fall by 5 Mt to
79.5 Mt. Exports and domestic use are expected to fall. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 1.3 Mt to
25 Mt.
Total wheat stocks were down 0.5% year over year to 25.0 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019.
On-farm stocks were up 1.5% to 20.8 million tonnes, while commercial stocks decreased 9.6% to 4.2 million tonnes.
Despite a 0.5% increase in total wheat production at the national level in 2019, lower carry-in stocks (down 10.3% from the previous year to 6.0 million tonnes) were responsible for the drop in total stocks.
Lower wheat exports compared with the same period a year earlier contributed to the decrease in commercial stocks.
23,300 25,288
27,246
37,589
29,442 27,647
32,140 30,377
32,201 32,350
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Canadian Wheat Production (mt)
16,575 17,352 18,953
23,268 24,170 22,091
20,218 22,000
24,384 24,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Canadian Wheat Exports (mt)
7,360
5,932 5,112
10,398
7,101
5,178
6,931 6,479
5,916 5,366
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Canadian Wheat Ending Stocks (mt)
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
1 Red Spring Wheat Price/Tonne
Canadian area seeded to wheat is forecast to be nearly the same as for 2019-20 as a 17% increase in the winter wheat area is expected to be offset by a 1% decrease for the spring wheat area.
Production is projected to rise by 2% to 28 Mt. The winter wheat production is projected to
increase by 60% to 2.7 Mt due to higher seeded area and assuming a return to normal abandonment rate.
Spring wheat production is expected to fall by 1% to 25.3 Mt.
Supply is forecast to increase by 4% because of higher carry-in stocks.
Exports are expected to rise by 5% due to lower world production.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 10% to 5.5 Mt.
Red Spring Wheat
CROP My Farm Top 20% Yield Soil Zone Brown Dark Brown Black REVENUE PER ACRE Target Yield (bu./ac) (A) 38.9 57 64.7 Estimated Farm Gate Price ($/bu.) (B) 6.15 6.15 6.15 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/ac) (AxB)=C 0 239.24 350.55 397.91 Expenses Per Acre Variable Expenses/Acre Seed 19.78 21.85 24.84 -Seed Treatments/Inoculants 7.87 8.69 9.88 Fertilizer -Nitrogen 32.19 47.29 53.83 -Phosphorous (P2O5) 11.3 17.63 18.98 -Sulphur and Other 0 0 0 Plant Protection -Herbicides 45.24 45.24 45.24 -Insecticides 6.07 6.07 6.07 -Fungicides 11.85 11.85 11.85 Machinery Operating -Fuel 12.32 15.4 19.25 -Repair 8.57 9.66 10.94 Custom Work and Hired Labour 22.3 22.05 23.05 Crop Insurance Premium 3.84 3.99 4.91 Utilities and Miscellaneous 3.13 4.11 4.75 Interest on Variable Expenses 4.22 4.89 5.34 Total Variable Expenses (D) 0 188.68 218.72 238.93 Farm Income 0 50.555 131.83 158.98 Fixed Expenses Building Repair 0.47 0.63 0.85 Property Taxes 3.91 5.11 7.75 Business Overhead 2.08 3.18 3.73 Total Fixed Expenses 6.46 8.92 12.33
Off Farm Income 0 12.73 12.73 12.73 Living Costs 0 15.25 15.25 15.25 Debt Payment Per Acre 0 60.00 60.00 60.00 Total Fixed Requirements 0 57.48 57.48 57.48
Residual for Growth 0 -$13.39 $65.43 $89.17
DSR 0 0.88 2.29 2.77
World barley production and supply for 2019-20 increased to the highest level since 1994-95, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Barley production increased in the major exporting countries, including the EU, Australia, Russia and Ukraine.
World trade is projected to rise due to higher supply and increased imports by Saudi Arabia, China and Morocco.
World carry-out stocks are expected to increase to 22 Mt from 18 Mt in 2018.
Barley Barley stocks rose 20.6% year over year
to 6.0 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019. On-farm stocks were largely responsible for the
increase, rising 19.5% to 5.6 million tonnes. Commercial stocks increased 36.5%
to 403 900 tonnes. Barley production rose 23.9% to 10.4 million
tonnes in 2019, offsetting record low carry-in stocks and pushing total stocks higher.
2,502 1,502 1,195 983
1,995 1,260 1,523
2,120 1,250 877
7,627 7,892 8,012
10,282
7,117 8,257
8,839 7,891 8,380
10,400
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Canadian Barley (mt)
Beginning Stocks Production
1,502
1,195 983
1,995
1,260
1,523
2,120
1,250
877
1,397
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Canadian Barley Ending Stocks (mt)
The area seeded to barley in Canada is forecast to decrease by 3% due to the sharp increase in carry-in stocks and lower prices.
However, barley prices in 2019-20 have been relatively good compared to prices over the past few years, which will limit the decline in area seeded.
Production is forecast to decrease by 8% using previous 5-year (2015-16 to 2019-20) average for area harvested and yields for 2020-21.
Supply is forecast to increase marginally. Domestic use is anticipated to remain largely unchanged. Exports are expected to be stable.
As a result, carry-out stocks are forecast to rise. The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is
expected to be lower than 2019-20 due to increased supplies in Canada and lower feed grain prices in the US.
85
105
125
145
165
185
205
225
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Sask Feed Barley
Feed Barley CROP My Farm Top 20% Yield
Soil Zone Brown Dark Brown Black REVENUE PER ACRE Target Yield (bu./ac) (A) 76.7 81.8 91.9 Estimated Farm Gate Price ($/bu.) (B) 3.50 3.50 3.50 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/ac) (AxB)=C 0 $268.45 $286.30 $321.65 Expenses Per Acre Variable Expenses/Acre Seed 17.6 19.4 22 -Seed Treatments/Inoculants 8.05 8.87 10.06 Fertilizer -Nitrogen 40.75 43.76 49.3 -Phosphorous (P2O5) 15.82 17.18 19.44 -Sulphur and Other 0 0 0 Plant Protection -Herbicides 29.69 29.69 29.69 -Insecticides 6.07 6.07 6.07 -Fungicides 0 0 11.85 Machinery Operating -Fuel 12.32 15.4 19.25 -Repair 8.57 9.66 10.94 Custom Work and Hired Labour 20.8 21.05 21.05 Crop Insurance Premium 6.93 4.95 5.11 Utilities and Miscellaneous 3.13 4.11 4.75 Interest on Variable Expenses 3.88 4.12 4.79 Total Variable Expenses (D) 0 173.61 184.26 214.3 Farm Income 0 $94.84 $102.04 $107.35 Fixed Expenses Building Repair 0.47 0.63 0.85 Property Taxes 3.91 5.11 7.75 Business Overhead 2.08 3.18 3.73 Total Fixed Expenses 6.46 8.92 12.33 Off Farm Income 0 12.73 12.73 12.73 Living Costs 0 15.25 15.25 15.25 Debt Payment Per Acre 0 60.00 60.00 60.00 Total Fixed Requirements 0 57.48 57.48 57.48
Residual for Growth 0 $30.90 $35.64 $37.54
DSR 0 1.65 1.78 1.87
Malt Barley CROP My Farm Top 20% Yield
Soil Zone Brown Dark Brown Black REVENUE PER ACRE Target Yield (bu./ac) (A) 62.7 67 74.6 Estimated Farm Gate Price ($/bu.) (B) 4.5 4.5 4.5 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/ac) (AxB)=C 0 282.15 301.5 335.7 Expenses Per Acre Variable Expenses/Acre Seed 23.32 25.52 29.04 -Seed Treatments/Inoculants 9.7 10.61 12.07 Fertilizer -Nitrogen 34.71 37.22 40.75 -Phosphorous (P2O5) 13.56 14.46 15.82 -Sulphur and Other 0 0 0 Plant Protection -Herbicides 73.77 73.77 73.77 -Insecticides 6.07 6.07 6.07 -Fungicides 11.85 11.85 11.85 Machinery Operating -Fuel 12.32 15.4 19.25 -Repair 8.57 9.66 10.94 Custom Work and Hired Labour 20.8 21.05 21.05 Crop Insurance Premium 4.27 4.08 4.25 Utilities and Miscellaneous 3.13 4.11 4.75 Interest on Variable Expenses 5.08 5.35 5.71 Total Variable Expenses (D) 0 227.15 239.15 255.32 Farm Income 0 $55.00 $62.35 $80.38 Fixed Expenses Building Repair 0.47 0.63 0.85 Property Taxes 3.91 5.11 7.75 Business Overhead 2.08 3.18 3.73 Total Fixed Expenses 6.46 8.92 12.33 Off Farm Income 0 12.73 12.73 12.73 Living Costs 0 15.25 15.25 15.25 Debt Payment Per Acre 0 60.00 60.00 60.00 Total Fixed Requirements 0 57.48 57.48 57.48 Residual for Growth 0 -$8.94 -$4.05 $10.57 DSR 0 0.96 1.08 1.40
Nationally, stocks of oats rose 11.0% year over year to 2.7 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019.
Both on-farm stocks (+9.0%) and commercial stocks (+30.9%) contributed to the increase.
2,451
3,158 2,830
3,928
2,977 3,425 3,231
3,733 3,436
4,160
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Canadian Oat Production (mt)
1,374
1,738 1,606 1,662 1,697
1,571 1,642 1,631 1,734 1,800
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Canadian Oats Exports (mt)
733 805
446
1,076
693
947
703 784
417
687
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Canadian Oat Ending Stocks (mt)
March 2020
The area seeded to oats in Canada is forecast to increase by 9% mainly due to good prices and strong demand.
This will be the highest level since 2009. Production is forecast to increase by 5% due to
higher area harvested more-than offsetting lower yield.
Supply is projected to increase by 10% owing to higher carry-in stocks and production.
Domestic use is expected to increase due to higher feed use.
Exports are anticipated to be stable. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise.
Oats CROP My Farm Top 20% Yield
Soil Zone Brown Dark Brown Black REVENUE PER ACRE Target Yield (bu./ac) (A) 79.1 103.7 139.4 Estimated Farm Gate Price ($/bu.) (B) 2.95 2.95 2.95 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/ac) (AxB)=C 0 233.345 305.915 411.23 Expenses Per Acre Variable Expenses/Acre Seed 21.12 26.4 31.68 -Seed Treatments/Inoculants 8.05 8.87 10.06 Fertilizer -Nitrogen 27.16 35.72 47.79 -Phosphorous (P2O5) 9.94 13.11 14.92 -Sulphur and Other 0 0 0 Plant Protection -Herbicides 19.39 19.39 19.39 -Insecticides 6.07 6.07 6.07 -Fungicides 0 0 10.5 Machinery Operating -Fuel 12.32 15.4 19.25 -Repair 8.57 9.66 10.94 Custom Work and Hired Labour 20.8 21.05 21.05 Crop Insurance Premium 5.52 5.53 6.13 Utilities and Miscellaneous 3.13 4.11 4.75 Interest on Variable Expenses 3.25 3.78 4.63 Total Variable Expenses (D) 0 145.32 169.09 207.16 Farm Income 0 88.025 136.825 204.07 Fixed Expenses Building Repair 0.47 0.63 0.85 Property Taxes 3.91 5.11 7.75 Business Overhead 2.08 3.18 3.73 Total Fixed Expenses 6.46 8.92 12.33 Off Farm Income 0 12.73 12.73 12.73 Living Costs 0 15.25 15.25 15.25 Debt Payment Per Acre 0 60.00 60.00 60.00 Total Fixed Requirements 0 57.48 57.48 57.48
Residual for Growth 0 $24.09 $70.43 $134.26
DSR 0 1.53 2.38 3.55
The area seeded to winter rye in Canada increased by 32% from 2019-20, as a result of relatively good prices and strong demand for domestic use and exports.
Production is forecast to increase by almost 30% to 429 Kt, using previous 5-year average yield. Supply is projected to increase by 20% to 490 Kt.
Exports, domestic use and carry-out stocks are forecast to rise due to higher supplies.
March Futures
1,505 1,554 1,695 1,865 2,257 2,233 2,232
2,935 2,540 2,300
4,445 4,467 5,086 5,356
6,045 6,456 6,597
7,717 7,267
6,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020
Area Harvested Production
Soybeans CROP My Farm Top 20% Yield
Soil Zone Brown Dark Brown Black REVENUE PER ACRE Target Yield (bu./ac) (A) 31.6 33.4 37.1 Estimated Farm Gate Price ($/bu.) (B) 10.66 10.66 10.66 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/ac) (AxB)=C 336.856 356.044 395.486 Expenses Per Acre Variable Expenses/Acre Seed 98 98 98 -Seed Treatments/Inoculants 14 14 14 Fertilizer -Nitrogen 2.55 2.66 2.98 -Phosphorous (P2O5) 10.85 11.3 12.66 -Sulphur and Other 0 0 0 Plant Protection -Herbicides 57.24 57.24 57.24 -Insecticides 5.45 5.45 5.45 -Fungicides 0 0 0 Machinery Operating -Fuel 13.77 17.21 21.52 -Repair 8.57 9.66 10.94 Custom Work and Hired Labour 23.05 22.05 22.3 Crop Insurance Premium 7.52 6.28 6.52 Utilities and Miscellaneous 3.13 4.11 4.75 Interest on Variable Expenses 5.58 5.67 5.86 Total Variable Expenses (D) 249.71 253.63 262.22 Farm Income 87.146 102.414 133.27 Fixed Expenses Building Repair 0.47 0.63 0.85 Property Taxes 3.91 5.11 7.75 Business Overhead 2.08 3.18 3.73 Total Fixed Expenses 6.46 8.92 12.33
Off Farm Income 12.73 12.73 12.73 Living Costs 15.25 15.25 15.25 Debt Payment Per Acre 60.00 60.00 60.00 Total Fixed Requirements 57.48 57.48 57.48
Residual for Growth $23.21 $44.93 $75.79
DSR 1.52 1.78 2.32
60,523 61,228 63,305 70,586 70,426 68,739 69,498
74,991 72,369 67,724 79,402 83,153 82,967
91,641 92,469 90,142 91,173 95,480 94,253 90,870
8,681 6,829 5,503 7,725 7,257 6,164 5,019 7,591 8,540 6,779
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Production Total Supply Ending Stocks
8,681
6,829 5,503
7,725 7,257 6,164
5,019
7,591 8,540
6,779
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Global Canola Ending Stocks
Source: USDA
20,782 19,240 19,560
21,306
24,587 21,997
20,538 22,184
20,033 18,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
European Union Rapeseed Production
Source: USDA
22,130 22,530
23,700
24,900
26,300
25,250 25,050 25,300
24,200
22,800
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
European Union Rapeseed Domestic Consumption
Under Estimating Domestic
Consumption?
Source: USDA
Overall, stocks of canola were down 2.4% year over year to 14.3 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019.
This decrease was attributable to a 5.9% decline in on-farm stocks to 12.4 million tonnes, which offset a 28.6% increase in commercial stocks to 1.9 million tonnes.
Despite higher carry-in stocks (+52.9%), lower canola production in 2019, coupled with higher industrial use (+8.0%), led to the decline in total canola stocks.
Canola exports were down 14.7%, or 641 100 tonnes, year over year, largely because of lower exports to China
12,789 14,608 13,869
18,551 16,410
18,377 19,599
21,328 20,343
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000Canadian Canola Production (mt)
Source: USDA
7,207
8,695
7,110
9,175 9,216 10,282
11,022 10,849
9,141
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Canadian Canola Exports (mt)
Source: USDA
6,310 6,999 6,717 6,979 7,360
8,315 9,191 9,269 9,295 9,500
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Canadian Canola Crush (mt)
3,031 3,260 3,159 3,204 3,473
4,040 4,562 4,627 4,568 4,628
2,420 2,676 2,516 2,348 2,409
2,767 3,104 3,170 3,200 3,425
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
Total Supply Exports
3,540 3,945 3,785 3,966 4,155
4,698 5,185 5,230 5,240 5,355
3,780 4,160 4,052 4,074 4,269 4,813
5,307 5,334 5,364 5,456
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Production Exports
2,198
707 588
3,008
2,542 2,091
1,342
2,499
4,094 3,744
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Canadian Canola Ending Stocks (mt)
Source: USDA
The seeded area in Canada is forecast to decrease by 2% to 8.3 million hectares (Mha), as farmers seed slightly more wheat and coarse grains at the expense of oilseeds and pulses and special crops.
Harvested area is forecast at 8.2 Mha while yields are projected at 2.25 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), up marginally from the 2.24 t/ha achieved in 2019-20.
Production is forecast to fall slightly to 18.5 Mt versus the 18.6 Mt grown last year.
Total supply is forecast to fall to 22.1 Mt on the combination of lower carry-in stocks and lower output.
Exports are forecast up by 4% to 9.5 Mt on support from the slow and steady growth in world consumption of vegetable oils and high oil content oilseeds.
Domestic crush is forecast to fall slightly to 9.3 Mt, due to competition from large world soybean oil and palm oil supplies.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to tighten slightly to 3.0 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 16%.
Canola CROP My Farm Top 20% Yield
Soil Zone Brown Dark Brown Black REVENUE PER ACRE Target Yield (bu./ac) (A) 48.5 50.3 53.8 Estimated Farm Gate Price ($/bu.) (B) 10.5 10.5 10.5 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/ac) (AxB)=C 0 509.25 528.15 564.9 Expenses Per Acre Variable Expenses/Acre Seed 66.19 66.19 66.19 -Seed Treatments/Inoculants 9 9 9 Fertilizer -Nitrogen 51.81 53.32 57.35 -Phosphorous (P2O5) 24.86 25.76 27.57 -Sulphur and Other 7 7 7.59 Plant Protection -Herbicides 59.55 66.4 66.4 -Insecticides 8 8 8 -Fungicides 0 34.99 34.99 Machinery Operating -Fuel 13.05 16.31 20.39 -Repair 8.57 9.66 10.94 Custom Work and Hired Labour 20.8 21.05 21.05 Crop Insurance Premium 10.52 9.04 9.72 Utilities and Miscellaneous 3.13 4.11 4.75 Interest on Variable Expenses 6.46 7.56 7.86 Total Variable Expenses (D) 0 288.94 338.39 351.8 Farm Income 0 220.31 189.76 213.1 Fixed Expenses Building Repair 0.47 0.63 0.85 Property Taxes 3.91 5.11 7.75 Business Overhead 2.08 3.18 3.73 Total Fixed Expenses 6.46 8.92 12.33 Off Farm Income 0 12.73 12.73 12.73 Living Costs 0 15.25 15.25 15.25 Debt Payment Per Acre 0 60.00 60.00 60.00 Total Fixed Requirements 0 57.48 57.48 57.48
Residual for Growth 0 $156.37 $123.36 $143.29
DSR 0 3.83 3.30 3.71
Seeded area for flaxseed in Canada is forecast to rise to 0.45 Mha, on support from higher prices.
Production is forecast to rise by 34% to 0.65 Mt, assuming a steady abandonment in the harvested area and using the 5-year average historical yields.
Supply is forecast to increase by 24% to 0.69 Mt as the rise in output more than offsets the slight drop in carry-in stocks.
Exports are forecast to increase by 11% from 2019-20, to 0.50 Mt on steady to stronger world consumption.
Total domestic use is forecast to rise to 0.11 Mt, on higher feed, waste and dockage.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase to 0.80 Mt. Flaxseed prices are forecast up slightly, to $490-530/t for 2020-21.
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Flax
Flax CROP My Farm Top 20% Yield
Soil Zone Brown Dark Brown Black REVENUE PER ACRE Target Yield (bu./ac) (A) 30.3 33.1 34.3 Estimated Farm Gate Price ($/bu.) (B) 13.5 13.5 13.5 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/ac) (AxB)=C 0 409.05 446.85 463.05 Expenses Per Acre Variable Expenses/Acre Seed 13.6 14.8 15.6 -Seed Treatments/Inoculants 1.78 1.94 2.04 Fertilizer -Nitrogen 35.72 38.73 40.24 -Phosphorous (P2O5) 9.49 10.4 10.85 -Sulphur and Other 0 0 0 Plant Protection -Herbicides 64 64 64 -Insecticides 6.07 6.07 6.07 -Fungicides 0 29.26 29.26 Machinery Operating -Fuel 12.32 15.4 19.25 -Repair 8.57 9.66 10.94 Custom Work and Hired Labour 20.8 21.05 21.05 Crop Insurance Premium 6.19 5.83 6.76 Utilities and Miscellaneous 3.13 4.11 4.75 Interest on Variable Expenses 4.15 5.06 5.28 Total Variable Expenses (D) 0 185.82 226.31 236.09 Farm Income 0 223.23 220.54 226.96 Fixed Expenses Building Repair 0.47 0.63 0.85 Property Taxes 3.91 5.11 7.75 Business Overhead 2.08 3.18 3.73 Total Fixed Expenses 6.46 8.92 12.33 Off Farm Income 0 12.73 12.73 12.73 Living Costs 0 15.25 15.25 15.25 Debt Payment Per Acre 0 60.00 60.00 60.00 Total Fixed Requirements 0 57.48 57.48 57.48
Residual for Growth 0 $159.29 $154.14 $157.15
DSR 0 3.88 3.84 3.95
https://www.statpub.com/
Magnusson Consulting – Acknowledges Stats Publishing for Price Charts & Information
Production increased by 4% to 2.2 Mt due to higher yields.
Large green lentil production is estimated to have fallen from last year to 0.5 Mt
Red lentil production rose to about 1.4 Mt. Production of the other remaining lentil types
is estimated to have fallen below 0.3 Mt. Supply, however, decreased marginally due to
smaller carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase to 2.1 Mt.
Area seeded in Canada is forecast to remain unchanged at 1.53 Mha due to higher potential returns compared to other crops.
Production is forecast to increase marginally to 2.2 Mt.
Supply is expected to fall to 2.6 Mt because of lower carry-in stocks.
Exports are expected to be lower than in 2019-20 at 2.0 Mt.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease. The overall lentil price is forecast to increase from
2019-20 due to the lower carry-out stocks and expectations for an average grade distribution.
Season to date bulk export movement to 425,500 MT, compared to the 293,400 MT reported at this time last season.
The CGC broke down exports by grade, reporting: ◦ 12,500 MT or 3% were No 1 Canada; ◦ 340,200 MT or 83% of the total was No 2 Canada ◦ 14% or 56,000 MT were other grades.
Of the total, 12,500 MT of No 1 Canada; 284,800 MT
of No 2 Canada and 56,000 MT of other grades were loaded for export in Vancouver.
Loadings at Thunder Bay total 20,900 MT of No 2 Canada so far this season; while 34,500 MT of No 2 Canada were loaded for export at Churchill
India, Bangladesh and Turkey are currently the top export markets.
Imports are expected to be higher than the previous year due to the below average grade distribution.
Carry-out stocks are expected to fall due to the increase in exports combined with the smaller supply.
The overall average price is forecast to rise above the levels achieved in 2018-19 with stronger prices for the No.1 grade but with a below average proportion of grade distribution at the No.1 or 2 grades.
Canadian Lentil Supply-Demand Estimates
(metric tons, acres) Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Area (acres) 4,036,200 5,569,000 4,406,000 3,768,100 3,780,500 3,858,000 Yield ( lbs) 1,388 1,264 1,281 1,224 1,264 1,294 Production 2,541,500 3,193,800 2,559,500 2,092,200 2,166,900 2,264,000
Carry In 363,000 73,000 315,000 873,000 631,000 300,000 Imports 19,499 90,929 31,090 45,612 40,000 45,000 Stocks 2,923,999 3,357,729 2,905,590 3,010,812 2,837,900 2,609,000
Disappearance
Aug-Oct Exports 1,529,562 1,438,406 623,996 727,612 810,438 N/A Percent of Forecast 71.3 % 58.5 % 40.5 % 35.8 % 37.5 % N/A
Europe 46,340 61,891 60,918 62,784 50,000 65,000 Mediterranean 455,514 442,343 319,760 177,592 239,000 274,000 South America 119,566 136,764 149,631 198,323 209,000 207,000
N/C America 54,178 89,398 204,544 158,723 144,000 189,000 Pacific Rim 1,120,678 1,308,600 386,986 978,796 1,104,000 1,030,000 Arab/Africa 348,585 418,767 420,108 457,887 413,000 385,000
Total Export 2,144,860 2,457,763 1,541,947 2,034,104 2,159,000 2,150,000 Seed 181,300 144,300 126,600 125,400 127,000 165,400
Other Domestic 524,838 440,667 364,043 220,307 251,900 236,600 Total Usage 2,850,998 3,042,730 2,032,590 2,379,811 2,537,900 2,552,000
Ending Stock 73,000 315,000 873,000 631,000 300,000 57,000 Stock/Use 2.6 % 10.4 % 43.0 % 26.5 % 11.8 % 2.2 %
Forecasts by STAT Market Research based on data from Statistics Canada.
Export movement thus far during the 2019-20 marketing year has been up significantly from the same period last season in both Canada and the United States.
U.S. export movement between August and December has more than doubled to around 127,000 metric tons (MT), while Canadian shipments are up 11.4% at just over 810,000 MT.
Overall domestic disappearance is expected to increase, partly because a higher proportion of offgrade product should be diverted into livestock feed markets. The net result is residual stocks of lentils are expected to decline significantly by the end of the current marketing year.
End users would be expected to pay close attention to seeding intentions for both countries. If growers respond to relatively strong disappearance by boosting land in lentils, some buyers may switch to hand to mouth buying in the current marketing year, believing new crop prices could be somewhat more profitable.
Overall domestic disappearance is expected to increase, partly because a higher proportion of offgrade product should be diverted into livestock feed markets. ◦ The net result is residual stocks of lentils are
expected to decline significantly by the end of the current marketing year.
If growers respond to relatively strong disappearance
by boosting land in lentils, some buyers may switch to hand to mouth buying in the current marketing year, believing new crop prices could be somewhat more profitable.
Demand could slow more rapidly than would be expected during the closing quarter of the current marketing year.
Significantly, importers in India assert that their purchases of all pulses could be down sharply after the first quarter of the 2020 calendar year. ◦ So far during the 2019-20 marketing year, India has
been one of the most important importers of all classes of lentils.
Land in lentils during the current rabi planting season is little changed from last year, but there is a general expectation yields will be higher on average because the season started with ample soil moisture reserves.
If production rises, that would be expected to have more impact on red than green lentils.
LENTILS 14-02-20 07-02-20 17-01-20 Laird Lentils No 1 26.00 26.00 27.00 Cdn$/cwt Canada No 2 24.00 25.00 26.00 Extra 3 20.00 21.00 23.50 No 3 18.00 18.00 20.50 Richlea Lentils No 1 22.00 22.00 22.00 Cdn$/cwt Canada No 2 22.00 22.00 22.00 Extra 3 20.00 20.00 20.00 No 3 12.00 12.00 11.00 Eston Lentils No 1 21.50 21.50 22.00 Cdn$/cwt Canada No 2 19.00 19.00 19.00 Extra 3 16.00 16.00 15.00 No 3 15.00 15.00 14.00 Red Lentils No 1 24.00 24.00 24.50 Cdn$/cwt Canada No 2 24.00 24.00 24.50 Extra 3 18.00 19.00 20.00 No 3 16.00 16.00 17.00 French Lentils No 1 21.00 21.00 19.00 Cdn$/cwt Canada No 2 19.00 19.00 17.00 Extra 3 15.00 15.00 13.00 No 3 12.30 12.30 10.40 U.S. Regular US$ cwt PNW 14.00 14.00 14.00 U.S. Regular US$ cwt ND 15.00 15.00 15.00 Small Green US$ cwt PNW 11.50 11.50 11.50 Pardina Lentil US$ cwt PNW 14.00 14.00 14.00 Red Lentil US$ cwt PNW 18.10 18.00 18.80
Red Lentils CROP My Farm Top 20% Yield
Soil Zone Brown Dark Brown Black REVENUE PER ACRE Target Yield (bu./ac) (A) 2,083.20 2,172.80 2,352.00 Estimated Farm Gate Price ($/bu.) (B) 0.22 0.22 0.22 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/ac) (AxB)=C 458.304 478.016 517.44 Expenses Per Acre Variable Expenses/Acre Seed 17.92 17.92 17.92 -Seed Treatments/Inoculants 16.32 16.32 16.32 Fertilizer -Nitrogen 2.45 2.55 2.77 -Phosphorous (P2O5) 10.4 10.85 11.75 -Sulphur and Other 0 0 0 Plant Protection -Herbicides 75.09 75.09 75.09 -Insecticides 5.45 5.45 5.45 -Fungicides 7.38 7.38 7.38 Machinery Operating -Fuel 13.77 17.21 21.52 -Repair 8.57 9.66 10.94 Custom Work and Hired Labour 21.8 21.05 22.8 Crop Insurance Premium 12.03 12.39 13.04 Utilities and Miscellaneous 3.13 4.11 4.75 Interest on Variable Expenses 4.44 4.57 4.8 Total Variable Expenses (D) 198.75 204.55 214.53 Farm Income 259.554 273.466 302.91 Fixed Expenses Building Repair 0.47 0.63 0.85 Property Taxes 3.91 5.11 7.75 Business Overhead 2.08 3.18 3.73 Total Fixed Expenses 6.46 8.92 12.33 Off Farm Income 12.73 12.73 12.73 Living Costs 15.25 15.25 15.25 Debt Payment Per Acre 60.00 60.00 60.00 Total Fixed Requirements 57.48 57.48 57.48 Residual for Growth $195.61 $215.99 $245.43
DSR 4.52 4.76 5.27
Stocks of dry peas rose 3.2% year over year to 2.6 million tonnes as of December 31, 2019.
On-farm stocks (up 8.0% to 2.4 million tonnes) were responsible for the increase, which offset a 26.7% decrease in commercial stocks.
For 2020-21, seeded area is forecast to be relatively unchanged from 2019-20 at 1.75 Mha, because of good returns relative to other crops.
Dry peas continue to be recognized as a beneficial part of a crop rotation plan.
Production is expected to rise marginally to 4.3 Mt, with an expectation of trend yields.
Supply is forecast to rise marginally to 4.8 Mt due to similar carry-in stocks.
With the tariff in India expected to remain, exports to other countries are expected to be marginally lower than 2019-20 and carry-out stocks are expected to rise.
The average price is expected to be unchanged from 2019-20, due to similar pea prices and ample world supply.
Canadian Field Pea Supply-Demand Estimates (metric tons, acres)
Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Area (acres) 3,750,000 4,281,700 4,093,000 3,615,300 4,332,800 4,150,000
Yield (lbs) 1,882 2,490 2,215 2,184 2,156 2,176 Production 3,200,700 4,835,900 4,112,200 3,580,700 4,236,500 4,096,000
Carry In 684,000 174,000 300,000 648,000 312,000 586,000 Imports 15,131 30,345 10,032 59,232 68,000 69,000 Stocks 3,899,831 5,040,245 4,422,232 4,287,933 4,616,500 4,751,000
Disappearance Aug-Dec Exports 1,509,254 1,994,016 1,282,619 1,378,813 1,740,554 N/A
Percent of Forecast 56.9 % 50.5 % 41.5 % 42.1 % 56.1 % N/A
Europe 11,351 67,705 19,391 53,099 39,000 41,000 South America 53,497 63,760 67,001 60,490 64,000 66,000
N/C America 179,093 231,507 447,663 313,826 301,000 314,000 Pacific Rim 2,369,773 3,521,315 2,485,358 2,779,663 2,634,000 2,648,000 Arab/Africa 37,998 63,292 69,037 66,838 64,000 64,000
Export 2,651,710 3,947,580 3,088,449 3,273,915 3,102,000 3,133,000 Seed 301,000 288,000 254,000 305,000 292,000 313,000
Feed & Waste 620,697 360,321 256,751 222,017 343,500 496,000 Domestic 152,424 144,343 175,032 175,000 293,000 356,000
Total Usage 3,725,831 4,740,244 3,774,232 3,975,932 4,030,500 4,298,000 Ending Stock 174,000 300,000 648,000 312,000 586,000 453,000
Stocks/Use 4.7 % 6.3 % 17.2 % 7.8 % 14.5 % 10.5 % Forecasts by STAT Market Research based on data from Statistics Canada Created on February 5, 2020
Season to date bulk loadings to 1,475,600 MT compared to 1,056,900 MT during the same period in the previous marketing year.
Farmers Season to date deliveries now total 2,332,100 MT, compared to 1,964,700 MT during the same period last season.
Demand from China will be subdued on account of the spread of the coronavirus and restrictions on entry by people who have travelled to the country in the previous 14 days.
Compounding these concerns is the expectation India will remain absent from markets because of optimism about this year's rabi season crop prospects.
FIELD PEAS Canada Green Peas CDN$ bu Sask 11.00 11.00 12.15 Canada Large Yellow Peas CDN$ bu Sask 6.90 6.90 7.15 Canada Small Yellow Peas CDN$ bu Sask 6.65 6.65 6.75 Canada Feed peas CDN$ bu Sask 4.10 4.10 4.10 Alberta Feed Peas CDN$ MT 150.60 150.60 150.60 U.S. Green Peas US$ cwt PNW 12.00 12.00 12.00 U.S. Green Peas US$ cwt ND 13.75 13.75 14.17 U.S. Yellow Pea US$ cwt PNW 8.33 8.33 9.33 U.S. Feed US$ MT Duluth Austrian Winter Pea US$ cwt PNW 16.00 16.00 16.00 Canada Maple Peas CDN$ bu Sask 9.50 9.50 9.50 Marrowfat Peas CDN$ bu Sask 11.00 11.00 12.00
Green Peas Yellow Peas Peas CROP My Farm Top 20% Yield My Farm Top 20% Yield
Soil Zone Brown Dark Brown Black Brown Dark
Brown Black
REVENUE PER ACRE Target Yield (bu./ac) (A) 43.7 51.1 58.4 43.7 51.1 58.4 Estimated Farm Gate Price ($/bu.) (B) 9.25 9.25 9.25 6.75 6.75 6.75 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/ac) (AxB)=C 404.225 472.675 540.2 294.975 344.925 394.2
Expenses Per Acre Variable Expenses/Acre Seed 36.99 42.12 47.52 31.74 36.34 40.94 -Seed Treatments/Inoculants 10.88 12.39 13.98 10.96 12.55 14.14 Fertilizer -Nitrogen 3.51 4.15 4.68 3.51 4.15 4.68 -Phosphorous (P2O5) 14.92 17.63 19.89 14.92 17.63 19.89 -Sulphur and Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 Plant Protection -Herbicides 72.55 72.55 72.55 72.55 72.55 72.55 -Insecticides 5.45 5.45 5.45 0 0 0 -Fungicides 29.26 29.26 29.26 29.26 29.26 29.26 Machinery Operating -Fuel 13.77 17.21 21.52 13.77 17.21 21.52 -Repair 8.57 9.66 10.94 8.57 9.66 10.94 Custom Work and Hired Labour 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 Crop Insurance Premium 5.27 5.66 6.25 5.27 5.66 6.25 Utilities and Miscellaneous 3.13 4.11 4.75 3.13 4.11 4.75 Interest on Variable Expenses 5.14 5.5 5.88 4.89 5.25 5.61 Total Variable Expenses (D) 229.74 245.99 262.97 218.87 234.67 250.83 Farm Income 174.485 226.685 277.23 76.105 110.255 143.37 Fixed Expenses Building Repair 0.47 0.63 0.85 0.47 0.63 0.85 Property Taxes 3.91 5.11 7.75 3.91 5.11 7.75 Business Overhead 2.08 3.18 3.73 2.08 3.18 3.73 Total Fixed Expenses 6.46 8.92 12.33 6.46 8.92 12.33 Off Farm Income 12.73 12.73 12.73 12.73 12.73 12.73 Living Costs 15.25 15.25 15.25 15.25 15.25 15.25 Debt Payment Per Acre 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 Total Fixed Requirements 57.48 57.48 57.48 57.48 57.48 57.48 Residual for Growth $110.55 $169.21 $219.75 $12.17 $52.78 $85.89 DSR 3.04 3.94 4.82 1.32 1.92 2.49
The area seeded is expected to rise due to improved returns from the previous year.
Production is forecast to rise to 145 Kt due to higher area.
Supply is expected to fall due to the lower carry-in stocks.
Exports are expected to be unchanged at 120 Kt and carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease.
The average price is forecast to fall when compared to 2019-20.
MUSTARDSEED SPOT MARKET AVERAGE S/O/N/D (CDN cents per pound farmers dressed quality delivered plant) Yellow No 1 38.00 to 39.00 38.33 38.00 to 39.00 No 2 36.00 to 37.00 36.50 34.20 to 36.00 No 3 34.00 to 35.00 34.50 30.40 to 32.00 No 4 32.00 to 33.00 32.50 28.50 to 30.00 Brown No 1 28.00 to 29.00 28.20 28.00 to 28.50 No 2 26.00 to 27.00 26.33 24.70 to 26.00 No 3 21.00 to 26.00 23.33 20.90 to 22.00 No 4 16.00 to 25.00 20.33 17.10 to 18.00 Oriental No 1 25.00 to 26.00 25.20 26.60 to 28.00 No 2 22.00 to 23.00 22.50 24.70 to 26.00 No 3 18.00 to 21.00 19.33 20.00 to 21.00 No 4 18.10 to 19.00 18.55
Brown Mustard Oriental Mustard Yellow Mustard CROP My Farm Top 20% Yield My Farm Top 20% Yield My Farm Top 20% Yield
Soil Zone Brown Brown Brown REVENUE PER ACRE Target Yield (bu./ac) (A) 1,321.60 1,456.00 1,097.60 Estimated Farm Gate Price ($/bu.) (B) 0.3 0.25 0.4 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/ac) (AxB)=C 396.48 364 439.04 Expenses Per Acre Variable Expenses/Acre Seed 26.4 26.4 44 -Seed Treatments/Inoculants 0.5 0.5 1 Fertilizer -Nitrogen 25.65 27.67 21.13 -Phosphorous (P2O5) 12.66 13.11 10.4 -Sulphur and Other 6.17 6.17 6.17 Plant Protection -Herbicides 80.91 80.91 76.78 -Insecticides 0 0 0 -Fungicides 0 0 0 Machinery Operating -Fuel 19.03 19.03 19.03 -Repair 8.57 8.57 8.57 Custom Work and Hired Labour 20.3 20.3 20.3 Crop Insurance Premium 8.63 8.7 8.83 Utilities and Miscellaneous 3.13 3.13 3.13 Interest on Variable Expenses 4.85 4.9 5.02 Total Variable Expenses (D) 216.8 219.39 224.36 Farm Income 179.68 144.61 214.68 Fixed Expenses Building Repair 0.47 0.47 0.47 Property Taxes 3.91 3.91 3.91 Business Overhead 2.08 2.08 2.08 Total Fixed Expenses 6.46 6.46 6.46 Off Farm Income 12.73 12.73 12.73 Living Costs 15.25 15.25 15.25 Debt Payment Per Acre 60.00 60.00 60.00 Total Fixed Requirements 57.48 57.48 57.48 Residual for Growth $122.20 $87.13 $157.20 DSR 3.13 2.52 3.73
For 2020-21, the area seeded is forecast to be higher than the previous year due to good potential returns compared to other crops.
Production is expected to rise due to higher area and yields; supply is also forecast to increase.
Exports are expected to be higher than in 2019-20 and carry-out stocks are expected to remain tight.
The average price is forecast to be lower than the previous year.
BIRDSEED SPOT MARKET AVERAGE S/O/N/D (CDN cents per pound farmers dressed quality delivered plant) Canaryseed 26.00 to 30.00 28.75 20.00 to 26.00
Canary Seed CROP My Farm Top 20% Yield
Soil Zone DkBrown REVENUE PER ACRE Target Yield (bu./ac) (A) 1,926.00 Estimated Farm Gate Price ($/bu.) (B) 0.26 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/ac) (AxB)=C 500.76 Expenses Per Acre Variable Expenses/Acre Seed 18.5 -Seed Treatments/Inoculants 0 Fertilizer -Nitrogen 32.19 -Phosphorous (P2O5) 24.41 -Sulphur and Other 18.85 Plant Protection -Herbicides 46.15 -Insecticides 19.95 -Fungicides 10.05 Machinery Operating -Fuel 18.12 -Repair 9.66 Custom Work and Hired Labour 19.8 Crop Insurance Premium 5.49 Utilities and Miscellaneous 4.11 Interest on Variable Expenses 5.2 Total Variable Expenses (D) 232.48 Farm Income 268.28 Fixed Expenses Building Repair 0.63 Property Taxes 5.11 Business Overhead 3.18 Total Fixed Expenses 8.92 Off Farm Income 12.73 Living Costs 15.25 Debt Payment Per Acre 60.00 Total Fixed Requirements 57.48 Residual for Growth $210.80
DSR 4.67
For 2019-20, production fell by 19% to 252 Kt due to lower harvested area and yields.
Crop quality is expected to be below average when compared to the previous year.
Supply is forecast to rise as higher carry-in stocks more than offset the lower production.
Exports are forecast to decrease, with the US and Pakistan as the main importers.
Carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average price for all grades of chickpeas is
forecast to fall, due to higher world and Canadian stocks.
Canadian Chickpea Supply-Demand Estimates (metric tons, acres)
Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Area (acres) 123,000 156,000 209,000 442,900 391,900 213,000
Yield ( lbs) 1,611 1,289 1,251 1,550 1,416 1,459
Production 89,900 91,200 118,600 311,300 251,700 141,000
Imports 13,594 26,812 46,000 29,000 34,000 36,000
Carry In 181,000 74,000 28,000 13,000 100,000 155,000
Stocks 284,495 192,012 192,600 353,300 385,700 332,000
Disappearance
Aug-Dec Exports 57,806 43,217 90,158 59,448 39,851 N/A
Percent of Forecast 38.1 % 40.2 % 77.6 % 39.8 % 30.7 % N/A
Exports 151,641 107,624 116,141 149,517 129,900 123,500
Seed 12,240 16,205 34,558 30,360 16,383 17,700
Feed & Waste 26,756 14,194 7,400 42,500 49,657 41,200
Other Domestic 19,858 25,989 21,501 30,923 34,760 40,200
Total Usage 210,495 164,012 179,600 253,300 230,700 222,600
Ending Stock 74,000 28,000 13,000 100,000 155,000 109,400
Stock/Use 35.2 % 17.1 % 7.2 % 39.5 % 67.2 % 49.1 %
Forecasts by STAT Market Research based on data from Statistics Canada
Created on February 5, 2020
CHICKPEAS SPOT MARKET AVERAGE S/O/N/D (CDN cents per pound farmers dressed quality delivered plant) Desi Chickpeas 19.50 to 26.00 21.25 No 1 Grade Kabuli Chickpeas 10mm 26.00 to 28.00 26.79 9mm 24.00 to 26.00 24.75 8mm 25.00 to 26.00 25.58 7mm 19.00 to 20.00 19.58 No 2 Grade Kabuli Chickpeas 10mm 21.50 to 25.00 22.50 9mm 19.50 to 25.00 21.72 24.00 to 24.00 8mm 20.50 to 24.00 22.25 7mm 14.50 to 21.25 16.79 No 1 Kabuli Max 10% 7mm No 2 Kabuli Max 10% 7mm Kabuli Frontier 8mm+ 25.00 to 25.00 25.00 Kabuli Frontier 7mm 20.00 to 20.00 20.00 No 1 B-90 Chickpea 19.50 to 26.00 22.50 No 2 B-90 Chickpea 19.00 to 24.00 21.25 Natural Splits 4.00 to 14.00 8.00
Desi Chickpeas Kabuli Chickpeas #1-9 mm CROP My Farm Top 20% Yield My Farm Top 20% Yield
Soil Zone Brown Brown REVENUE PER ACRE Target Yield (bu./ac) (A) 1,792.00 2,531.20 Estimated Farm Gate Price ($/bu.) (B) 0.16 0.23 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/ac) (AxB)=C 286.72 582.176 Expenses Per Acre Variable Expenses/Acre Seed 34.41 62.35 -Seed Treatments/Inoculants 13.81 13.81 Fertilizer -Nitrogen 3.02 4.02 -Phosphorous (P2O5) 13.56 18.08 -Sulphur and Other 0 0 Plant Protection -Herbicides 93.85 93.85 -Insecticides 5.45 5.45 -Fungicides 37.52 37.52 Machinery Operating -Fuel 19.93 19.93 -Repair 8.57 8.57 Custom Work and Hired Labour 19.8 16.5 Crop Insurance Premium 14.59 16.61 Utilities and Miscellaneous 3.13 3.13 Interest on Variable Expenses 6.12 6.86 Total Variable Expenses (D) 273.76 306.68 Farm Income 12.96 275.50 Fixed Expenses Building Repair 0.47 0.47 Property Taxes 3.91 3.91 Business Overhead 2.08 2.08 Total Fixed Expenses 6.46 6.46 Off Farm Income 12.73 12.73 Living Costs 15.25 15.25 Debt Payment Per Acre 60.00 60.00 Total Fixed Requirements 57.48 57.48 Residual for Growth -$44.52 $218.02
DSR 0.23 4.79
For 2019-20, the global supply of sunflower seed is estimated by the USDA at a near record of 56 Mt.
This is only slightly lower than the record supply of last year.
World exports are expected to decrease marginally to 2.6 Mt and domestic use is expected to rise to a record 51 Mt.
World carry-out stocks are expected to fall sharply to 2.3 Mt.
For 2019-20, production was higher than the previous year at 63 Kt due to a rise in area and yields. Supply rose marginally with smaller carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be similar to last year. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall and be similar to the previous year. The US is expected to continue to be Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed. The average price is forecast to be higher than 2018-19 due to stronger oilseed type prices.
US sunflower seed production is estimated by the USDA at over 1.0 Mt, up 7% from 2018-19 and largely due to higher production in North Dakota.
It is estimated by AAFC that US production of oil type varieties and confectionery type varieties rose to 0.9 Mt and about 0.1 Mt, respectively. US supply is forecast by the USDA to be unchanged at 1.25 Mt.
US exports are expected to fall and domestic use is expected to rise. US sunflower seed carry-out stocks are expected to fall and provide some support for North American prices.
Oil Sunflower CDN$ cwt 24.50 24.30 24.10 U.S. Oil Sunflower Seed US$ cwt ND 19.90 19.25 18.80 U.S. Oil Sunflower Seed Deferred 19.90 18.95 18.60 U.S. Oil Sunflower Seed US$ cwt KS 18.55 18.35 18.10 Lg Confection Sunflower US$ cwt KS 28.00 28.00 28.00 Sm Confection Sunflower US$ cwt KS 15.00 15.00 15.00
10-01-20 03-01-20 13-12-19
Corn production in Canada decreased by 3% from 2018-19 to13.4 Mt largely due to lower average yields, despite an increase in harvested area.
Production in Canada's two leading corn producing provinces, Ontario (ON) and Quebec, decreased by 1% and 7%, respectively.
Total production in Western Canada declined by 5% compared to last year and dropped by 23% for Atlantic Canada.
The harvest rate in Eastern Canada was slightly higher than last year, while it was much lower in Western Canada.
The average provincial yield fell for each province compared to last year.
The total supply of corn decreased by 9% from 2018-19, as a result of lower carry-in stocks, production and imports.
Corn imports for 2019-20 into Western Canada are expected to fall sharply, because of the significant increase in barley production in Western Canada where barley is the major feed grain.
Domestic use is expected to decrease from 2018-19 due to reduced food and industrial use, as well as lower feed use.
Exports are expected to decrease due to lower supply and the reduced export pace to-date.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to decline mainly due to smaller supplies.
World barley production and supply for 2019-20 increased to the highest level since 1994-95, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Barley production increased in the major exporting countries, including the EU, Australia, Russia and Ukraine.
World trade is projected to rise due to higher supply and increased imports by Saudi Arabia, China and Morocco.
World carry-out stocks are expected to increase to 22 Mt from 18 Mt in 2018.
2,502 1,502 1,195 983
1,995 1,260 1,523
2,120 1,250 877
7,627 7,892 8,012
10,282
7,117 8,257
8,839 7,891 8,380
10,400
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Canadian Barley (mt)
Beginning Stocks Production
1,502
1,195 983
1,995
1,260
1,523
2,120
1,250
877
1,397
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Canadian Barley Ending Stocks (mt)
Barley production in Canada increased by 24% or slightly more than 2.0 million tonnes (Mt) from 2018-19 to 10.4 Mt, ◦ Largely due to higher harvested area ◦ Improved yields.
Production reached the highest level since 2009 and compares to 10 Mt forecast by STC in September.
Malting barley area and production for 2019 should be the highest in recent five years with good quality,
Total supply of barley increased by 17% from 2018-19 as the increase in production is partly offset by the historically low carry-in stocks.
Domestic use of barley is expected to increase from 2018-19, reflecting stronger feed use.
Exports are expected to decrease slightly due to the increased supply of barley in competing countries, including countries in the EU and Black Sea region. Carry-out stocks are anticipated to increase sharply.
85
105
125
145
165
185
205
225
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Sask Feed Barley
Livestock markets look to capitalize on reduced world protein supplies associated with African swine fever in Asia.
Robust exports are expected through 2020. Domestic meat demand remains strong despite fears of an economic slowdown.
A realization of strong pork exports places hog price potential at higher levels than last year.
Feeder cattle prices may come in slightly lower than last year through the first half of 2020.
Stronger price prospects in the second half of the year should materialize as supply moderates.
U.S. beef production is expected to increase by 2 percent in 2020.
Beef production looks to increase to 27.6 billion pounds in 2020, up 0.5 billion pounds over 2019.
Domestic beef demand remained strong in the third quarter of 2019.
Domestic per capita beef consumption falls in 2020 to 56.4 pounds, down 0.7 pounds from 2019.
Beef export markets continue to build through the end of 2019.
Projections of beef exports sit at 3.3 billion pounds, up from 3.1 billion in 2019.
April 2020
3,962.40
3,911.00
3,828.10
3,709.90
3,675.20
3,680.20 3,699.80
3,661.00 3,656.00
3,500.00
3,550.00
3,600.00
3,650.00
3,700.00
3,750.00
3,800.00
3,850.00
3,900.00
3,950.00
4,000.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 P
Canadian Beef cows ('000 head)
518.6
557.7 554.9
531.5
564.8 563.3 561.6
553.8 549.5
490
500
510
520
530
540
550
560
570
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 P
Canadian Heifers for Beef Replacement ('000 head)
3,892.10
3,977.40
3,915.40
3,776.30 3,816.10
3,786.60 3,746.70
3,698.90 3,651.20
3,400.00
3,500.00
3,600.00
3,700.00
3,800.00
3,900.00
4,000.00
4,100.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 P
Canadian Calves, Under 1 Yr ('000 head)
Canada was one of the first six countries to ratify the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) at the end of December 2018.
This provided Canadian beef with tariff reductions in valuable export markets such as Japan.
Canada has already benefited from two tariff reductions. As of April 2019, Canadian beef has a tariff of 26.6 percent
in Japan compared with 38.5 percent for most favored nation (MFN) countries.
Tariffs on Canadian beef to Japan will continue to decline annually until eventually reaching nine percent.
Canada has already realized increased exports and growth in market share for Japan through the first half of 2019 and are on pace to see a year of record beef exports to Japan.
1,186.70
1,161.50
1,133.70
1,090.70
1,065.10 1,078.40
1,085.50 1,099.50
1,100.00 P
1,000.00
1,020.00
1,040.00
1,060.00
1,080.00
1,100.00
1,120.00
1,140.00
1,160.00
1,180.00
1,200.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Saskatchewan Beef cows ('000 head)
148.8
161
156.5
150
161.2
158.2
154.6
157.3 158.2 P
142
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
164
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Saskatchewan Heifers for Beef Replacement ('000 head)
66.2
74.9
64.8
55.9 55.4 56.2 51.8 52.5 53 P
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Saskatchewan Heifers for slaughter ('000 head)
118.2 119.5 110
96.4 90.3 92.5 94.6 96.8 97.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Saskatchewan Steers, 1 Yr and Over ('000 head)
823.9
863.8
805.5
739.5
764.9 775.8
736.8 736.1 739.5
650
700
750
800
850
900
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Saskatchewan Calves, Under 1 Yr ('000 head)
167.7
173.9
168.8
165.2
169 168.6 167.2
169.8
171.5
160
162
164
166
168
170
172
174
176
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Saskatchewan Average # Head Per Operation
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
2019 2020
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
2019 2020
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Feeder Basis – 850 lb - 2019
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
165
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
SASK D1 Cows
Cow-Calf Production Costs - September, 2019 Based on a 150 Cow Herd
Cost/Cow Total Cost Your Cost
1. Feed Costs
1.01 Grain and Concentrates $25.61 $3,842
1.02 Forages $355.10 $53,265
1.03 Salt & Minerals $37.55 $5,633
1.04 Extended Grazing Forages $29.36 $4,405
Total Feed Cost $447.62 $67,145
2. Other Operating Costs
2.01 Straw $40.00 $6,000
2.02 Veterinary Medicine & Supplies $19.17 $2,876
2.03 Breeding Costs $37.58 $5,637
2.04 Fuel, Maintenance & Repairs $37.55 $5,632
2.05 Utilities $10.84 $1,626
2.06 Marketing & Transportation $37.14 $5,570
2.07 Death Loss $19.69 $2,953
2.08 Manure Removal $7.23 $1,084
2.09 Insurance $12.91 $1,937
2.10 Herd Replacement $94.50 $14,175
2.11 Pasture Rental $60.13 $9,020
2.12 Miscellaneous $6.67 $1,001
Subtotal Operating Costs $831.02 $124,656
2.13 Operating Interest $23.89 $3,584
Total Operating Costs $854.91 $128,240
