livestock_poultry.pdf

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United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture

Foreign AgriculturalService

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

April 2014

India and Turkey: Competitive Advantages Impact Global TradeIndia:Beef shipments have nearlytripled between 2008 and2013 and are forecast at arecord of nearly 1.9 milliontons in 2014. India has

become the worlds secondlargest exporter with a 20

percent market share.

Turkey:

Broiler meat exports areforecast at a record 480,000tons in 2014, up from42,000 tons in 2008.Although Turkey has onlyachieved a 4 percent shareof the global market,shipments are primarily tothe Middle East, theworld s strongest growthregion.

Gains are due to competitive advantages:Geography: India and Turkey are close to key markets which facilitates shipping logisticsand lowers costs. India exports primarily to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, whileTurkey ships over half its volume overland to Iraq.

Product Differentiation: Both countries supply halal meat, a desired attribute or essentialrequirement in many of their markets. India ships carabeef (from water buffalo), a lower-quality price-competitive meat with binding characteristics favored in processed productmanufacturing. Sixty percent of Turkey s exports are whole birds, preferred over parts byMiddle East consumers.

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Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

April 2014

Contents

Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry

BeefBeef and Veal: 2014 Forecast Revised from November

Beef Summary TablesCattle Summary Tables

PorkPork: 2014 Forecast Revised from NovemberPork Summary TablesSwine Summary Tables

Poultry Meat

Broiler Meat: 2014 Forecast Revised from NovemberBroiler Meat Summary TablesTurkey Meat Summary Tables

Notes to Readers

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (p) 2014 (f)

PercentChange2013 to

2014

Beef and Veal /1 57,366 57,576 57,422 57,623 58,620 58,856 0.4%Pork /1 100,332 102,899 103,468 106,828 109,452 110,703 1.1%Broiler and Turkey /2 78,784 83,447 86,507 88,723 89,490 90,799 1.5%

Total 236,482 243,922 247,397 253,174 257,562 260,358 1.1%

Beef and Veal /1 56,408 56,427 55,718 56,090 56,825 57,240 0.7%Pork /1 100,246 102,756 103,118 106,266 109,075 110,435 1.2%Broiler & Turkey /2 77,669 82,116 84,918 86,708 87,651 88,667 1.2%

Total 234,323 241,299 243,754 249,064 253,551 256,342 1.1%

Beef and Veal /1 6,555 6,622 6,413 6,652 7,423 7,759 4.5%Pork /1 5,547 5,891 6,611 6,896 6,662 6,593 -1.0%Broiler and Turkey /2 7,660 8,163 8,560 8,918 9,034 9,276 2.7%

Total 19,762 20,676 21,584 22,466 23,119 23,628 2.2%

Beef and Veal /1 7,450 7,822 8,095 8,164 9,165 9,514 3.8%Pork /1 5,632 6,031 6,947 7,260 7,019 6,860 -2.3%Broiler and Turkey /2 8,965 9,449 10,167 10,797 10,917 11,434 4.7%

Total 22,047 23,302 25,209 26,221 27,101 27,808 2.6%

Beef and Veal /1 878 1,043 1,263 1,113 1,172 1,141 -2.6%Pork /1 1,857 1,915 2,354 2,441 2,264 2,200 -2.8%Broiler and Turkey /2 3,335 3,331 3,480 3,662 3,678 3,767 2.4%

Total 6,070 6,289 7,097 7,216 7,114 7,108 -0.1%

Beef and Veal /1 12% 13% 16% 14% 13% 12%Pork /1 33% 32% 34% 34% 32% 32%Broiler and Turkey /2 37% 35% 34% 34% 34% 33%

Combined 28% 27% 28% 28% 26% 26%

Notes:

Note to Readers: Totals include only those countries that make up USDAs official PSD database are reported. This means totals donot encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDAs database, whichrepresent the most important markets in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list ofcountries reported changes periodically.

1/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)2/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

U.S. Market Share (%) of Exports Among Major Traders

Imports

Exports

U.S. Exports

Summary:Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry

Production

Consumption

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BEEF AND VEAL: 2014 REVISED FROM NOVEMBER

Highlights:

Global production is revised slightly higher from the November forecast to a record 58.9

million tons. Increases for the United States and a number of other countries offset adownward revision for the EU and a small reduction for Australia. Global trade continues to flourish despite tight supplies and exports are revised over 300,000

tons higher to 9.5 million. A more favorable demand outlook for a wide range of countriessuch as China, Venezuela, Angola, Chile, Saudi Arabia and the EU will stimulate greatershipments by Brazil and India. For the United States and Australia, significant changes indemand and tight supplies will impact trade patterns, but not necessarily volumes.

Production:

Drought and Adverse Weather Conditions Continue To Impact Several Major Producers

Production in the United States is raised 212,000 tons to 11.2 million on larger than expected placements due to dry conditions and favorable returns to feedlot operators as well as heavierslaughter weights. However, production will still be at the lowest level in 20 years. On thecontrary, Oceania remains at levels comparable to recent years despite weather challenges.Australia is forecast 25,000 tons lower to 2.2 million as drought pushed producers to slaughterin 2103, reducing the cattle available in 2014. New Zealand is also lowered slightly to 630,000tons as lighter weights more than offset increased slaughter. Larger dairy herd numbers and arepeat of dry conditions in the biggest dairying area, Waikato, will generate a higher cowslaughter than originally forecast.

Changing Dairy Policies Impact EU Production

EU production is down 180,000 tons to 7.6 million. The elevated milk price and approachingabolition of the milk quotas in 2015 will encourage farmers to retain animals to expand the dairyherd. Lower calf slaughter on the continuing economic crisis in the main veal markets (Italy,France and Spain) also contributes to the reduction.

54

56

58

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

M i l l i o n T o n s C W E

World Beef Production Continues Growth

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Efficiency Gains Expected For India and Mexico

India is raised 50,000 tons to a record 4.0 million due to increased weights on efficiency gains inthe dairy sector such as the utilization of more nutritious feed. Mexico is 25,000 tons higher toover 1.8 million on higher carcass yields due to improved feed availability.

Global Demand Bolsters Brazil and Belarus Slaughter

Increased slaughter drives Brazil 20,000 tons higher to over 9.9 million. Strong global demandand depreciation of the Real facilitates competitive export pricing and improves packer margins.Belarus is raised 20,000 tons to 295,000 as Russias closure to several suppliers increasesdemand for imports from within the Customs Union.

Outlook Improved For Argentina

Argentinas production is raised 60,000 tons to 2.9 million driven by higher slaughter.

Trade:

Chinas Demand Forecast to Grow Significantly

Rising consumer demand and competitive prices are forecast to boost Chinas imports up 75,000tons to a record 550,000. Slower poultry demand following the recent H7N9 poultry outbreak isalso a factor in stronger demand. Domestic beef production is unable to meet this growingdemand which generates significant opportunities for countries eligible to supply China. As theUnited States, Brazil and India unable to ship to China, the market is shared by Australia,Uruguay, New Zealand, Canada and Argentina. Australia is the dominant supplier with over halfthe market while Uruguay comprises about one-quarter. Both are expected to capture most ofthe forecasted gains.

Growth in Minor Markets Benefit Export Leaders Brazil and India

Despite being blocked from shipments to China, the export forecasts for the worlds largest andsecond largest exporters, Brazil and India , are revised upward 90,000 and 125,000 tons,respectively. While Indias forecast reaches a new record of nearly 1.9 million tons. Brazilsforecast of over 2.0 million tons will not surpass its 2007 record (2.2 million). Imports areforecast higher for Venezuela, Angola, Chile, Saudi Arabia and Iran due to increased demand.Brazil and India are able to make additional and substantial inroads in these various markets dueto their competitive pricing.

Exchange Rates Impact Canada and EU Trade

Canadas imports are cut 25,000 tons to 290,000 due to the weaker Canadian dollar combinedwith tight supplies in the United States, which accounts for about three-quarters of the market.However, exports will be supported by the weaker currency and are up 30,000 tons to 355,000.

Nonetheless, exports remain at about half the level of the early to mid-2000s as lower productionlimits exportable supplies.

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Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Nov

2014A

no

Production

9,929,9009,6759,3079,0309,115 Brazil

7,587,7607,4707,7088,1148,101 European Union

5,765,7505,6375,5405,5505,600 China

4,003,9503,8503,4503,2442,842 India2,902,8402,8502,6202,5302,620 Argentina

2,242,2652,3592,1522,1292,129 Australia

1,821,7951,8081,8211,8041,745 Mexico

1,671,6001,6301,5871,5361,485 Pakistan

1,381,3801,3701,3801,3601,435 Russia

1,021,0201,0351,0641,1401,276 Canada

9,329,3479,1799,1459,0029,182 Others

47,6247,60746,86345,77445,43945,530 Total Foreign

11,2311,01811,75711,84911,98312,046 United States

58,8558,62558,62057,62357,42257,576 Total

no

Total Dom. Consumption

7,928,0007,8857,8457,7307,592 Brazil

7,727,8407,6027,7608,0348,202 European Union

6,266,1985,9595,5975,5245,589 China

2,702,6202,6642,4582,3202,346 Argentina

2,382,3922,3892,4062,3462,488 Russia

2,122,2002,0852,0391,9761,925 India

1,871,8101,8741,8361,9211,938 Mexico

1,621,5521,5811,5381,5031,451 Pakistan

1,281,2781,2321,2551,2371,225 Japan

91,0151,0011,0239951,003 Canada

11,1911,04210,93610,59410,48610,630 Others

46,0645,94745,20844,35144,07244,389 Total Foreign

11,1711,01411,61711,73911,64612,038 United States

57,2456,96156,82556,09055,71856,427 Total

Note: May contain meat of other bovines.

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Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Nov

2014A

no

Total Imports

1,021,0201,0311,0329941,058 Russia

7781760737745721 Japan

5550473241152154 Hong Kong

5475412992940 China3350376348365437 European Union

3398375370431366 Korea, South

3225325217195143 Venezuela

2315296301282243 Canada

2220245187180190 Chile

2235232215265296 Mexico

1,971,8911,8771,8981,8421,932 Others

6,706,4606,4025,6455,4805,580 Total Foreign

1,051,0271,0211,0079331,042 United States

7,757,4877,4236,6526,4136,622 Total

no

Total Exports

2,031,9401,8491,5241,3401,558 Brazil

1,871,7501,7651,4111,268917 India

1,561,5451,5931,4071,4101,368 Australia

5536529517503530 New Zealand

3415338360320347 Uruguay

3325333335426523 Canada

3325326251197283 Paraguay

2270244296445336 European Union

2210220156147181 Belarus

2220186164213277 Argentina

6623610630563459 Others

8,378,1597,9937,0516,8326,779 Total Foreign

1,141,0431,1721,1131,2631,043 United States

9,519,2029,1658,1648,0957,822 Total

Note: May contain meat of other bovines.

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Cattle Selected Countries Summary(in 1,000 head)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Nov

2014A

no

Total Cattle Beg. Stks

329,70329,775327,100323,700320,800316,400 India

207,96208,628203,273197,550190,925185,159 Brazil

104,18104,302104,205104,346104,822105,430 China

88,0087,60087,10687,05187,83689,829 European Union51,7452,19551,09549,59748,15649,057 Argentina

30,2430,15030,57630,91030,97130,845 Colombia

28,2528,36529,00028,50627,55027,906 Australia

19,5119,21019,98120,13419,97020,677 Russia

17,7617,63718,52120,09021,45622,192 Mexico

12,2112,32512,30512,24512,15512,670 Canada

56,2155,67055,95455,71756,10857,478 Others

945,79945,857939,116929,846920,749917,643 Total Foreign

87,7388,30089,30090,76992,68293,881 United States

1,033,5201,034,1571,028,4161,020,6151,013,4311,011,524 Total

no

Production (Calf Crop)

65,5065,50064,50063,50062,50061,700 India

50,9451,30050,18549,69049,44549,200 Brazil

42,2042,35041,55240,95040,90041,500 China

29,6029,90029,55029,80030,10029,000 European Union

14,3014,30014,20013,70013,10011,600 Argentina

8,488,7509,1689,1219,6148,842 Australia

6,676,6756,7006,8006,9007,000 Mexico

6,656,8206,8406,9207,2396,952 Russia

5,064,9855,0004,9454,7864,530 New Zealand

5,005,0005,0005,1255,1505,200 Colombia

16,0916,09515,97415,90716,03415,972 Others

250,49251,675248,669246,458245,768241,496 Total Foreign

33,3033,30033,93034,27935,31335,695 United States

283,79284,975282,599280,737281,081277,191 Total

Notes: May contain other bovines.

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Cattle Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Nov

2014A

no

Total Imports

8625712616335612 Venezuela

1110971389538 Russia

11051009570140 Egypt

11259811710383 China5059567356 Canada

2030101625 Mexico

1512141216 Japan

33331 Ukraine

11211 Belarus

00010 Argentina

000669 Others

1,211,0541,1121,0517151,041 Total Foreign

1,971,9502,0282,2842,1072,284 United States

3,183,0043,1403,3352,8223,325 Total

no

Total Exports

1,051,0501,0451,5391,4351,261 Mexico

99151,0488216961,065 Canada

9620851620695875 Australia

7550689512405655 Brazil


13252362996124 Colombia

904178213207 Uruguay

4233423427 New Zealand

2321282928 China

717962 Russia

311551 Others

4,434,1254,5064,6314,2684,637 Total Foreign

118016519119491 United States

4,594,3054,6714,8224,4624,728 Total

Notes: May contain other bovines.

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PORK: 2014 REVISED FROM NOVEMBER

Highlights:

Global pork production is raised 1.8 million tons from the November forecast to a record

110.7 million as growth in China and Russia more than offsets reductions in the UnitedStates and the EU. Global trade, on the other hand, is forecast lower, with exports reduced nearly 400,000 tons

to 6.9 million. This is largely due to Russias restrictions on imports of EU pork as well astight exportable supplies from the United States.

Swine disease outbreaks are major forecast movers. Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) hasaffected production estimates in a number of North American, Asian, and South Americancountries. This in turn impacts import demand and exportable supplies. Meanwhile Africanswine fever (ASF) is cited as the reason for Russias restrictions on imports of European

pork.

Production:

Chinas Production Expands despite Low Prices

China , accounting for over half of global pork production, is raised 2.3 million tons to a record

57.0 million because of fewer swine disease outbreaks and better animal nutrition and geneticsresulting in heavier slaughter weights. Government intervention programs are encouraging producers to stay in business despite low or even negative returns. For example, the governmenthas a pork purchasing scheme and some provincial governments have implemented both hogsubsidies and insurance trials, all attempting to prevent significant fluctuations in pork

production.

China

Rest of World

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


China's Pork Production Expands, Rest of World Flat

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Russias Import Restrictions Impact Domestic and EU Production

Russia is boosted 250,000 tons to a record 2.6 million, largely on greater producer returnsresulting from tight supplies caused by import restrictions on EU pork. The Russian industrycontinues shifting to larger, more efficient operations. The government is supporting themodernization of pork production facilities, including subsidizing improved breeding stock andgenetics through the Pork Production Development in 2013-2015 Plan. Small farms, on theother hand, are poorly positioned to compete with large-scale operations and are beingencouraged to exit hog production in order to reduce ASF risks. With import restrictions in

place against pork from the EU, the expanding industry is poised to benefit from higher prices.

EU is cut 150,000 tons to 22.3 million as the loss of their top export market, Russia, limits gainsin hog and pork prices, which remain below last year. Weights remain near last years level.Slaughter is eased as the outlook for recovery in piglet production is weakened largely due to

pressure on producer returns.

North American Production Is Lowered on PED ImpactDue to the effects of PED, production in the United States is lowered 453,000 tons to 10.3million. Heavier weights will not be enough to offset tighter hog supplies. Beginning swineinventories fell 1.8 million head to 66.0 million. Piglet production is also reduced by 8.7 millionhead to 113.2 million as PED losses of pre-weaned piglets result in lower litter rates. Tight hogand pork supplies are expected to lead to higher prices for both domestic and export markets.

To date, the spread of PED in Canada has not been as severe as in the United States, withapproximately 50 cases reported in four Canadian provinces as of mid-April. Canadas

production is lowered 30,000 tons to 1.8 million, making it unchanged compared to 2013. At thecurrent time, PED is having a minimal impact in Mexico. Production is lowered 5,000 tons to1.3 million as heavier weights are expected to nearly offset lower slaughter.

Asian Countries Are Also Impacted by PED

Production for Taiwan is lowered 25,000 tons to 815,000 as PED losses are expected to reduceslaughter hog supplies. Japan is unchanged at 1.3 million tons as heavier weights are expectedto balance reduced slaughter. Meanwhile in South Korea , production is raised 10,000 tons to1.2 million with heavier slaughter weights more than offsetting PED losses.

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Trade:

Top Exporters Constrained; EU by Trade Restrictions, United States by Tight Supplies

EU exports are forecast to drop 200,000 tons to 2.0 million due to the loss of their top market,Russia, which accounted for 23 percent of their trade in 2013. Some shipments will likely beredirected to Asia, with China expected to become their top market. Exports to the United Statesare also likely to increase. Greater domestic consumption is forecast, with growth from thecentral Member States. Russias import restrictions were implemented at the end of Februaryafter 4 cases of ASF were reported in Poland and Lithuania. The EU has initiated a World TradeOrganization (WTO) case on Russias restrictions, stating that the blanket ban on pork from the

entire EU is disproportionate and in violation of WTO rules.

The United States is expected to decline 190,000 tons to 2.2 million as tight supplies and recordhigh prices are impacting U.S. competitiveness. On a positive note, the United States hasregained partial access to the Russian market, which had been closed since early 2013. Theexport share of production is now forecast to fall for the second year to 21 percent. Lower

production and tight supplies are expected to boost imports, raised 25,000 tons to 415,000.

Brazil Benefits from Trade Restrictions, Canada from PED-Induced Global Supply Tightness

Brazil is forecast 55,000 tons higher to 675,000, with increased shipments to Russia replacingEU pork. With an additional plant becoming eligible to ship to Russia at the beginning of April,export prospects are supported. The depreciation of the Real is also expected to make Brazilian

product more competitive in the world market. Canada is raised 20,000 tons to 1.3 million, withgreater shipments expected to the United States, their top market, due to reduced U.S. productiontied to PED losses.

United States

European Union

Canada

Brazil

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


United States Leads Global Pork Exports

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Growth Is Expected for Some Smaller Exporters

China and Mexico are raised slightly on stronger Asian demand. For Mexico , exports areforecast 5,000 tons higher to 125,000 mostly on Japanese demand. China is raised 10,000 tonsto 275,000 on ample, relatively low priced supplies with some demand growth expected fromHong Kong, the Philippines, and Malaysia.

Imports Are Limited by Trade Restrictions and Tight Exportable Supplies

Russias imports are lowered 270,000 tons to 650,000, the lowest level in 10 years, due toimport restrictions on product from the EU, their largest supplier. Greater shipments from Braziland resumed access for two U.S. plants are expected to replace some, but not all EU pork.Despite greater production, consumption is lowered to 2012 levels.

Mexico and Canada are lowered due to tight supplies in the United States, their major supplier.Mexico is reduced 15,000 tons to 785,000 and Canada is cut 20,000 tons to 215,000.

Japan is down 20,000 tons to 1.2 million with pork facing stiff competition from other proteinsources. The top suppliers are expected to remain the United States (44 percent), the EU (25 percent) and Canada (17 percent). The EU could gain some market share due to morecompetitive prices and increased availability of product. Also, some Japanese importers are

beginning to diversify their supply base, increasing imports from lower-priced suppliers.

Slightly Higher Imports Are Forecast for China

China is forecast 15,000 tons higher to 790,000, yet imports still only account for one percent ofconsumption. Greater shipments are expected from the EU, their top supplier.

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Pork Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Nov

2014A

no

Production

56,9554,70055,62053,42750,60450,712 China

22,3022,45022,39022,52622,95322,627 European Union

3,403,4353,2803,3303,2273,195 Brazil

2,552,3002,4002,1752,0641,981 Russia2,262,2602,2202,1752,1302,090 Vietnam

1,821,8501,8201,8401,8121,779 Canada

1,391,3901,3501,3101,2881,260 Philippines

1,301,3051,3091,2971,2671,292 Japan

1,281,2901,2811,2391,2021,175 Mexico

1,171,1601,2521,0868371,110 Korea, South

8820795701704631 Ukraine

8840842878865845 Taiwan

5575550584528498 Chile

4400402331301279 Argentina

3360360352344339 Australia

2,953,0043,0513,0223,0112,900 Others

100,3798,13998,92296,27393,13792,713 Total Foreign

10,3310,78510,53010,55510,33110,186 United States

110,70108,924109,452106,828103,468102,899 Total

no


57,4455,26056,09653,80251,10850,799 China

20,3120,27020,17320,38220,82220,952 European Union

3,193,2203,2673,2083,0352,896 Russia

2,722,8162,6962,6702,6442,577 Brazil

2,522,5552,5492,5572,5222,488 Japan

2,242,2452,2052,1602,1132,072 Vietnam

1,941,9701,9531,8501,7101,784 Mexico

1,611,6001,6281,5461,4871,539 Korea, South

1,561,5731,5211,4461,4321,418 Philippines

1,021,010992953806776 Ukraine

8892879906919901 Taiwan

7850810834800810 Canada

5548536547558467 Hong Kong

5529510511482482 Australia

4434419362359326 Argentina

4,094,1144,1734,0913,9813,815 Others

101,8899,886100,40797,82594,77894,102 Total Foreign

8,558,7858,6688,4418,3408,654 United States

110,43108,671109,075106,266103,118102,756 Total

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Pork Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Nov

2014A

no

Total Imports

1,231,2501,2231,2591,2541,198 Japan

7775770730758415 China

7800783706594687 Mexico

69208681,045971916 Russia4410399414432347 Hong Kong

4425388502640382 Korea, South

2235221241204183 Canada

2210204281119146 Ukraine

1210183194175183 Australia

1185172138145159 Philippines

11009715111786 Belarus

11009810597104 Singapore

9288877858 Angola

7560362211 Colombia

5051261917 Chile

6686658617622609 Others

6,176,5236,2636,5326,2475,501 Total Foreign


6,596,9136,6626,8966,6115,891 Total

no

Total Exports

2,002,2002,2322,1652,1501,705 European Union

1,261,2451,2461,2431,1971,159 Canada

6620585661584619 Brazil

2265244235244278 China

1190164180139130 Chile

1120111958678 Mexico

95741048562 Belarus

3636364141 Australia

2525252519 Vietnam

127646 Norway

4531693819 Others

4,664,8534,7554,8194,5934,116 Total Foreign

2,202,3902,2642,4412,3541,915 United States

6,867,2437,0197,2606,9476,031 Total

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Swine Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Nov

2014A

no

Total Beginning Stocks

475,11475,898475,922468,627464,600469,960 China

145,40145,250146,982149,790152,361152,780 European Union

38,8438,64838,57738,33636,65235,122 Brazil

19,1820,05018,81617,25817,23117,236 Russia12,7413,18012,61012,62512,61512,465 Canada

9,919,0009,9168,1718,4498,721 Korea, South

9,879,8529,5109,2769,0078,979 Mexico

9,609,5709,6859,7359,76810,000 Japan

7,897,8907,5777,3737,9607,577 Ukraine

3,304,3444,2433,9893,8873,782 Belarus

2,142,1002,1382,2852,2892,302 Others

734,00735,782735,976727,465724,819728,924 Total Foreign

66,0267,77566,37466,36164,92564,887 United States

800,02803,557802,350793,826789,744793,811 Total

no

Production (Pig Crop)

729,10723,500720,971707,427670,196665,261 China

257,15258,000256,700257,600264,655263,076 European Union

38,4738,79537,90037,70037,75036,970 Brazil

38,2936,20036,17534,50030,65029,472 Russia

27,3027,70027,39028,34628,50028,613 Canada

17,2117,30017,35017,25017,00017,500 Japan

16,7516,85016,85016,50016,35016,200 Mexico

15,5015,80016,95316,34013,30814,923 Korea, South

9,589,5809,1638,5388,1098,176 Ukraine

4,834,7704,7794,5814,6594,604 Australia

4,805,5505,0005,2755,0755,025 Others

1,158,9901,154,0451,149,2311,134,0571,096,2521,089,820 Total Foreign

113,20121,870116,410116,791115,838113,685 United States

1,272,1961,275,9151,265,6411,250,8481,212,0901,203,505 Total

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Swine Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Nov

2014A

no

Total Imports

218023122511290 Ukraine

222319156 China

151031129 Mexico

10086334782783 Russia13152 Belarus

2211162 Korea, South

11125 Brazil

21233 Canada

11111 Japan

00000 Australia

01212 Others

2324359627949903 Total Foreign

4,744,9004,9585,6565,7955,749 United States

4,995,2245,3176,2836,7446,652 Total

no

Total Exports

4,754,9204,9755,6765,8215,761 Canada

1,721,7701,7011,6561,5631,748 China

55008187411,0101,011 European Union

44261 Brazil

00000 Australia

805210311354 Belarus

00000 Japan

00000 Korea, South

00000 Mexico

00001 Russia

00111 Others

7,027,2747,5508,1798,5148,577 Total Foreign


7,057,2947,5848,2348,5448,592 Total

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BROILER MEAT: 2014 REVISED FROM NOVEMBER

Highlights:

Global broiler meat production is still a record, but revised downward from the November

forecast by 1.7 million tons to 85.3 million due to declines in China, Brazil, Russia and theUnited States. Global trade is virtually unchanged as exports are forecast at 10.7 million tons as reductions

in Brazil and the EU are offset by increases in Turkey, Ukraine and China.

Production :

Avian Influenza Pressures Chinese Production

Avian influenza (AI) in China has reduced the production forecast 1.0 million tons to 12.7million. The disease has weakened demand and encouraged consumers to substitute red meat

and fish for poultry, resulting in financial loss for the industry. However, the disruption in live bird sales and reduced consumer demand for wet-market product may bolster supermarket purchases.

Lower Profitability Cuts Production in Brazil, Russia and the United States

Brazil is down 342,000 tons to 12.7 million on lower than expected domestic and foreign

demand. Domestic consumption is dampened by economic uncertainty, rising inflation andgreater competition from beef and pork. Russia is 200,000 tons lower to 3.1 million asexpansion is constrained by high indebtedness and market saturation. The United States is cut180,000 tons to 17.3 million, but still a record, as producers respond to moderating prices.

11

12

13

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

M i l l i o n T o n s R T C

Avian Influenza Diminishes Chinese Production

March 2013 H7N9 Outbreak

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Demand Bolsters India and EU Production

India is raised 100,000 tons to a record 3.7 million on greater domestic demand and increasedfeed availability. The industry is thriving with improved margins as a result of relatively lowcorn prices and stable poultry prices. The EU is 50,000 tons higher to 10.0 million as theeconomic slowdown encourages consumption of more price-competitive and convenient broilermeat. Higher production in Benelux, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Romania is expectedto offset declines in France and Spain.

Mexico is virtually unchanged at a record 3.1 million tons.

Trade:

Middle East Continues to Rise, Benefiting Turkish Exporters

The Middle East remains the worlds largest regional importer and represents the largest gain in

imports at 65,000 tons. Greater demand is expected to bolster imports by Saudi Arabia, up 35,000 tons to a record 860,000. Iraq is also forecast at a record level, up 30,000 tons to730,000.

Turkeys exports are 40,000 tons higher at a record 480,000 on greater demand from the MiddleEast, at the expense of Brazil, the EU, and the United States. The main priority of the industry isforeign markets as domestic demand continues to decline.

Brazil and EU Exports Expected Lower

Brazils exports are reduced 25,000 tons to 3.6 million on lower than expected demand in Sub-Saharan Africa and greater competition in the Middle East. Despite a depreciating Real,constraints such as antidumping tariffs in South Africa continue to limit exports. EU exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

M i l l i o n T o n s R T C

Growing Share of World Broiler Meat ExportsDirected to Middle East

Middle

East

Rest of

World

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drop 35,000 tons to 1.1 million on the cessation of export restitutions, in addition to the declinein the whole-bird exports to the Middle East.

Demand Shifts in Other Markets

Exports from the United States remain virtually unchanged at a record 3.4 million tons, asshipments to top markets such as Mexico and Canada remain strong.

Venezuelas imports are up 40,000 tons to 340,000.

EU imports are 30,000 tons higher to 700,000 based on higher demand for inexpensive sourcesof animal protein.

Angolas imports are down 25,000 tons to 350,000.

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Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Nov

2014A

no

Total Imports

8855854877895789 Japan

8825820750745652 Saudi Arabia

7700673612598522 Iraq

7670671727734687 European Union6690682616578549 Mexico

5530540560463656 Russia

3375321301287239 Angola

3340355371326240 South Africa

3300341198234237 Venezuela

2255272300410295 Hong Kong

3,153,2663,0713,1842,9072,891 Others

8,828,8068,6008,4968,1777,757 Total Foreign


8,878,8578,6558,5478,2267,805 Total

no

Total Exports

3,603,6253,4823,5083,4433,272 Brazil

1,071,1051,0831,0941,044934 European Union

5580504538467432 Thailand

4440362285206110 Turkey

4415420411423379 China

3355324291224214 Argentina

1170141764323 Ukraine

1155150141143147 Canada

11151001057438 Belarus

9188939079 Chile

2289243248219173 Others

7,337,3406,8976,7906,3765,801 Total Foreign

3,413,4253,3403,3003,1613,067 United States

10,7410,76510,23710,0909,5378,868 Total

Note: Chicken paws are excluded.

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Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014No

no

Production

1,971,9852,0101,9501,9461,795 European Union

5520510489485466 Brazil

1165161160159167 Canada

1100100907031 Russia1014131111 Mexico

88888 South Africa

66665 China

2,802,7942,8092,7162,6852,483 Total Foreign

2,702,6232,6712,5922,5272,535 United States

5,505,4175,4805,3085,2125,018 Total

no


1,931,9351,9521,8851,9111,801 European Union

3345340348327302 Brazil

1169173164163155 Mexico

1144142150143151 Canada

111411911610572 Russia

5954403232 China

5341323434 South Africa

2,862,8192,8212,7352,7152,547 Total Foreign

2,352,2932,2822,2732,3062,363 United States

5,215,1125,1035,0085,0214,910 Total

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Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014No

no

Total Imports

1160160152153144 Mexico


5348342627 China

4533242626 South Africa1419263541 Russia

77788 Canada

00000 Brazil



4379371334358367 Total

no

Total Exports

1175170141158164 Brazil


2623222425 Canada

11110 Mexico

00000 China

00000 Russia

00000 South Africa



6680707630581537 Total

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Notes to Readers

The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of thecurrent situation among the major players in world beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat trade.

Data Modifications Prior to 2012

Cattle/Beef: The cattle PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2010-

2011 period on official production data revisions: Canada and European Union. The beef PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 1996-

2011 period on additional/revised official production data available: Bosnia andHerzegovina, Canada, Ghana, Guatemala, Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia.

The beef PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2003-2011 period on additional/revised trade data available: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada,Honduras, United Arab Emirates and Vietnam.

Swine/Pork: The pork PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2008-

2011 period due to additional/revised official trade or production data: Canada, China, CotedIvoire, EU, and Russia.

The swine PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2009-2011 period due to additional/revised production data: Canada and China.

Broiler Meat: The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the

1996-2011 period on additional production data available: Ghana, Malaysia, and Singapore. The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the

1999-2011 period on additional trade data available: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and

Ukraine.

Assumptions Diseases: Forecast reflects disease (avian influenza, African swine fever, foot and mouth

disease, bovine spongiform encephalopathy, etc.) policies and restrictions in place as of April17, 2014 and assumes their continuation.

Conversion RatesBeef &Veal Pork

Conversion Rate 1.40 1.30HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0201

Frozen: 0202Processed: 021020 & 160250

Fresh/Chilled: 020311, 020312, 020319Frozen: 020321, 020322, 020329Processed: 021011, 021012, 021019,160241, 160242, 160249

Broiler Meat Turkey Meat

Conversion Rate 1 1

HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0207.11, 0207.13Frozen: 0207.12, 0207.14Processed: 1602.32

Fresh/Chilled: 0207.24, 0207.26,0207.32, 0207.34, 0207.35

Frozen: 0207.25, 0207.27, 0207.33, 0207.36Processed: 1602.31

Note: There are several exceptions by country/product. In general, chicken paws are excluded and carabeef (buffalo meat) is included.

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Technical Notes

CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unlessotherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal afterslaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of themeat product exported.

FAS Reports from Overseas OfficesThe Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submittedsince January 2014 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can beobtained on FAS Online at: http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx .

PSD Online

The entire USDA PSD database is available online at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline .

Additional Resources

Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry website at:http://www.fas.usda.gov/commodities/livestock-and-meats for additional data and analysis.

Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldpm-livestock,-dairy,-and-

poultry-outlook/ .

Future Releases and Contact Information

Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-trade to viewarchived and future releases. The next release of this circular will be in October 2014.

To receive the circular via email, go to http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-

markets-and-trade and click on "Email subscriptions to FAS reports are available through CornellUniversity's Mann Library" towards the bottom of the page to register.

Questions may be directed to the following staff:

Lesley Ahmed (202) 720-2781 [email protected] Swine and Pork

Claire Mezoughem (202) 720-7715 [email protected] Cattle and Beef

Lazaro Sandoval (202) 720-7285 [email protected] Poultry Meat
http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspxhttp://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspxhttp://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlinehttp://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlinehttp://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlinehttp://www.fas.usda.gov/commodities/livestock-and-meatshttp://www.fas.usda.gov/commodities/livestock-and-meatshttp://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldpm-livestock,-dairy,-and-poultry-outlook/http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldpm-livestock,-dairy,-and-poultry-outlook/http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldpm-livestock,-dairy,-and-poultry-outlook/http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldpm-livestock,-dairy,-and-poultry-outlook/http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-tradehttp://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-tradehttp://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-tradehttp://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-tradehttp://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-tradehttp://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/displayPatronSubscriptions.do?reports=0000http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/displayPatronSubscriptions.do?reports=0000http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/displayPatronSubscriptions.do?reports=0000mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/displayPatronSubscriptions.do?reports=0000http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-tradehttp://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-tradehttp://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-tradehttp://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldpm-livestock,-dairy,-and-poultry-outlook/http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldpm-livestock,-dairy,-and-poultry-outlook/http://www.fas.usda.gov/commodities/livestock-and-meatshttp://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonlinehttp://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

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