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Large El Nino eventSea Surface Temperature Anomalies
1990 2000 2010
1st El Niño
Forecast
‘86
El Niño Events Affect Climate
Worldwide-- especially in the
tropics
1990 2000 2010‘87
DROUGHTS
Southern Africa
Agriculture
Animals/Livestock
Infrastructure
Air Quality/Health
FLOODS
Peru Southern California
INFRASTRUCTURE
PROPERTY & LIVES
1990 2000 2010
IRI Pilot Project
Training (CU)
‘93
IRI’s Mission
The mission of the IRI is to enhance society's capability to understand, anticipate and manage the impacts of climate in order to improve human welfare and the environment, especially in developing countries.
IRI’s Mission
The mission of the IRI is to enhance society's capability to understand, anticipate and manage the impacts of climate in order to improve human welfare and the environment, especially in developing countries.
1990 2000 2010
IRI Pilot Project
Prediction (Scripps)‘94
1990 2000 2010‘96
NOAA Cooperative Agreement
IRI’s Mission
The mission of the IRI is to enhance society's capability to understand, anticipate and manage the impacts of climate in order to improve human welfare and the environment, especially in developing countries.
1997 - Present
1990 2000 2010`97/98
Major El Niño Event
1990 2000 2010
IPCC Process and Global Climate Change
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, Working Group 1: The Physical Science Basis for Climate Changehttp://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html
AR1 AR2 AR3 AR4
‘95 ‘01 ‘07
“Climate-Change Related” Impacts
• Adaptation
• Resilience
• Sustainability
Climate is more than “climate change”. Climate variability is of primary importance to all of these
issues.
Temperature
Most of the variability in the globally-averaged temperatureis contained in the slowlyvarying “climate change” component.
65%
13%
21%
Annual Mean Temperature
Climate Variability & Change Globally
Climate Variability & Change in Colorado, USATemperature Precipitation
12%
21%
65%
1%
19%
75%
Climate Information for Risk Management & Decision Making
1990 2000 2010‘09
WCC-3
1990 2000 2010 ‘12
GFCS
Relevance? Access?Capacity?
Climate Information for Risk Management & Decision Making
Ingredients for Climate-Informed Policy/Decisions/Action
• Relevance • Access• Capacity
SCIENCEObservations
graph courtesy of U. Redding
Physical Understanding and Modeling
• Relevance • Access• Capacity
Fcst Likelihood of Above-Average TemperatureSCIENCE
Early WarningSystems for Early Action
Risk of Malaria due to Climate & Environment
Ingredients for Climate-Informed Policy/Decisions/Action
• Relevance • Access• Capacity
The online digital climate map-room of Ethiopia: www.ethiomet.gov.et
TECHNOLOGY
Ingredients for Climate-Informed Policy/Decisions/Action
• Relevance • Access• Capacity
TECHNOLOGY
Ingredients for Climate-Informed Policy/Decisions/Action
• Relevance • Access• Capacity
: Climate: Health: Environmental Monitoring: Agriculture: Water: Economics
IRI Trainings (04/04-12/09)
TRAINING
Ingredients for Climate-Informed Policy/Decisions/Action
• Relevance • Access• Capacity
TRAINING
2010 Summer Institute onClimate & Public Health
Ingredients for Climate-Informed Policy/Decisions/Action
Management & Institutional SupportFppdff Climate sdppd Science
Regional & Sectorial Science
Finance &Administration
IT
Communications
Climate
Program
Support
Health Agriculture
Regional & Program Support
Climate Diagnostics
Climate Forecasts
Near-Term Climate Change
Environ.Monitoring
Data Library
FinancialInstruments
Shared appointments:CWC, CRED, Mailman SPH
Climate Services
Partnership,
Secretariat
1990 2000 2010 ‘12
Opportunities1990 2000 2010 ‘12
Opportunities1990 2000 2010 ‘12
