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Liquidity Management:
Beyond Quantitative Easing
June 2014
For Institutional Use Only
2
1. Assessing Risk: Current Market Conditions
a. Global Macroeconomics
b. Monetary Policy
c. Quantitative Easing (QE)
d. Asset Bubbles
e. Great Rotation
2. Post QE/Higher Interest Rates
3. Impact to Liquidity Managers
4. Money Market Regulatory Reform
5. Question & Answers
Agenda
For Institutional Use Only
Assessing Risk: Current Market Conditions
For Institutional Use Only
Global Business Cycle in a Trend of Modest Improvement
4
Note: This is a hypothetical illustration of a typical business cycle. There is not always a chronological progression in this order, and there
have been cycles when the economy has skipped a phase or retraced an earlier one. Economically sensitive assets include stocks and
high-yield corporate bonds, while less economically sensitive assets include Treasury bonds and cash. *A growth recession is a significant
decline in activity relative to a country’s long-term economic potential. We have adopted the “growth cycle” definition for most developing
economies such as China because they tend to exhibit strong trend performance driven by rapid factor accumulation and increases in
productivity, and the deviation from the trend tends to matter the most for asset returns. We use the classic definition of recession,
involving an outright contraction in economic activity, for developed economies. Please see endnotes for a complete discussion. Source:
Fidelity Investments (AART).
For Institutional Use Only
Global Debt to GDP Trends
For Institutional Use Only
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
%
Debt as a % of GDP
Eurozone China U.S. Japan
5
Source: www.tradingeconomics.com
Coordinated Global Monetary Policy
6
Source: Bloomberg as of 4/30/14
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
%
Federal Reserve European Central Bank Bank of England Bank of Japan
For Institutional Use Only
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Federal Reserve Assets as a % of GDP
Federal Reserve Bank
Central Banks Resort to Non-Traditional Policy
Source: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, European Central Bank, Eurostat, Bank of England, UK Office for
National Statistics, Bank of Japan, Economic and Social Research Institute Japan, and Bloomberg.
For Institutional Use Only 7
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Key Central Bank Assets as a % of GDP
European Central Bank Bank of England Bank of Japan
QE1 QE2 QE3
Liquidity From QE Flows into Global Markets
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
Billi
on
Bond & Equity Fund Cumulative Flows
Equity Bond
Source: Strategic Insight Simfund as of 3/31/14
Note: Flows include both mutual funds and ETFs
8 For Institutional Use Only
Investors Respond To Bond Bull Market
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1,050
1,200
1,350
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
$B
illi
on
s
Fixed Income Sector Asset Growth
Intermediate & Long-Term Bond Short-Term Bond Funds Ultrashort Bond Funds
Source: Strategic Insight (Simfund), Morningstar, iMoneynet, and Bloomberg as of 3/31/14
9 For Institutional Use Only
QE Has Driven Bond Yields and Valuations
Source: Bloomberg as of 4/30/14
10
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Yie
ld (
%)
10-Year Government Bond Yields
US UK Germany Japan
For Institutional Use Only
Quest For Yield Has Driven Corporate Spreads Lower
11
Source: Barclays as of 4/30/14
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Op
tio
n A
dju
ste
d S
pre
ad
(b
ps)
Barclays Credit Index Sub-Sector OAS
Industrials Utilities Financials
For Institutional Use Only
QE Has Lead To Higher Equity Valuation
Source: Bloomberg as of 4/30/14
12
50
65
80
95
110
125
140
155
Ind
ex
Va
lue
(In
dex
ed
to
10
0 a
t 6/3
0/0
8)
S&P 500 FTSE 100 DAX Nikkei 225
For Institutional Use Only
QE Taper Talks Creates Emerging Market Volatility
13
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
Ind
ex
Va
lue
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Barclays Emerging Markets USD Aggregate Index
Source: Barclays and Bloomberg as of 4/30/14
For Institutional Use Only
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
2034
2038
2042
2046
2050
2054
2058
Yie
ld (%
) Rati
o
US Borrowers/Savers 12 Month Rolling Average 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
Demographics are an Important Driver of Interest Rates
14
Source: Bloomberg and Haver as of 4/30/14
For Institutional Use Only
Roadmap To Higher U.S. Interest Rates
For Institutional Use Only
A Path to Higher Interest Rates
Quantitative Easing
Taper QE
Assessment of QE
Cease Reinvestment Of Proceeds from SOMA Holdings
Normalize the Size of Balance Sheet Over Time
Traditional Monetary Policy
Modify Forward Guidance on the Federal Fund’s Rate
Drain Excess Reserves
Raise the Federal Fund’s Target Rate, IOER, RRP
16 For Institutional Use Only
Federal Reserve’s Economic Projections
Source: Bloomberg and Federal Reserve
FOMC Forecast as of March 19, 2014 17
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
(%
)
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75P
CE
Yo
Y (
%)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Rea
l G
DP
Yo
Y (
%)
Actual Inflation
Inflation Forecast
Unemployment Rate Forecast Actual Unemployment Rate
Actual GDP GDP Forecast
Inflation Threshold
For Institutional Use Only
U.S. Inflation Risks Remain Subdued
18
1.50x
1.55x
1.60x
1.65x
1.70x
1.75x
1.80x
1.85x
1.90x
1.95x
2.00x
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Aug-0
7
Feb
-08
Aug-0
8
Feb
-09
Aug-0
9
Feb
-10
Aug-1
0
Feb
-11
Aug-1
1
Feb
-12
Aug-1
2
Feb
-13
Aug-1
3
Feb
-14
Monetary Base Money Velocity
CPI = Consumer Price Index. LEFT: Money velocity = GDP/M2. GDP = Gross domestic product. M2 = money supply measure including
currency, demand deposits, checking deposits, savings accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit. Monetary base = currency
plus reserves in the banking sources. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments (AART) through 2/28/14. RIGHT:
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments (AART) as of 12/31/13.
U.S. Monetary Base and Velocity Key Drivers of Inflation
$ Trillions Money Velocity
For Institutional Use Only
225
300
375
450
525
600
675
Jo
ble
ss
Cla
ims
(th
ou
sa
nd
s)
Initial Claims Initial Claims, 4-Week Moving Average
Jobless Claims Heading to Pre-Recession Levels
Source: Department of Labor, Bloomberg as of 4/25/14
19 For Institutional Use Only
U.S. Labor Participation Rates Continues Downward Trend
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
62
63
64
65
66
67
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
(%
)
Part
icip
ati
on
Rate
(%
)
Labor Force Participation Rate Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg as of 4/30/14
20 For Institutional Use Only
Employment Creation Positive, But Not Impressive
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg as of 4/30/14
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f E
mp
loye
es
m/m Change in Non-Farm Payrolls 6 Month Avg of m/m Chg
21 For Institutional Use Only
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
-6 -5.5-5.0-4.5-4.0-3.5-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6
Years Before/After Start of Recession
Post Recession U.S. Employment Recovery’s
22
Employment: Pre and Post Recession
Source: NBER, BLS/Haver as of 2/28/14. Data represents Civilian Employment (SA, Thous).
Most Recent
Recession
Em
plo
yment Level In
dexed to 1
00 a
t S
tart
of R
ecessio
n
For Institutional Use Only
Lackluster GDP Growth Despite Historic Fed Policy
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
%
Net Exports Government Investment Consumption Total
Contributions to Real GDP (% change annualized)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis as of 3/31/14
23 For Institutional Use Only
Potential Headwinds for GDP
Source: Left Chart - Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bloomberg as of 3/31/14; Right Chart – U. of Michigan Survey Research
Center, Bloomberg as of 4/30/14.
Note: Data represents % change year to year, SAAR, Bil.$
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
% C
han
ge
Y
oY
US Personal Consumption Expenditures
US Personal Income
24
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Ind
ex
Leve
l
U. of Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence Sentiment
For Institutional Use Only
Higher Mortgage Rates Could Dampen Recovery
Source: Bankrate.com, Mortgage Bankers Association, Bloomberg as of 4/25/14
Note: 30-year mortgage rate represents the overnight national average.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
Refi
na
nce
In
de
x V
alu
e
30
-Ye
ar
Fix
ed
Ra
te (
%)
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate vs. Refinance Index
25 For Institutional Use Only
Impact To US Liquidity Managers
For Institutional Use Only
Consensus Builds for a 2015 Rate Hike
27
Source: Federal Reserve as of 3/19/14
Federal Reserve Board Rate Expectations
Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming
(March 2014)
For Institutional Use Only
3
12
2 2
12
3
1
13
2
2014 2015 2016
Nu
mb
er
of
Part
icip
an
ts
Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming
Sep-2013 Dec-2013 Mar-2014
Fed Meeting Date 2015 2016 Longer Run
Mar-2014 1.00 2.25 4.00
Dec-2013 0.75 1.75 4.00
Median Target Fed Funds Rate at Year End
Q/E Tapering Expectations and Timing of First Rate Hike
28
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
Jul-13
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
No
v-1
3
De
c-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Feb
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Oct-
14
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Feb-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ap
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Jun-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Au
g-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Oct-
15
No
v-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Feb
-16
Ma
r-1
6
Ap
r-1
6
%
Forward Fed Funds Futures
Source: Bloomberg as of 4/30/14
Sep-13
May-13
For Institutional Use Only
Apr-14
Liquidity Strategies Risk Profiles
29 For Institutional Client Use Only
• All returns represent hypothetical annualized gross yields as of April 2, 2014 and do not reflect the deduction of any fees and expenses which
would reduce returns.
• The above referenced chart does not represent any current Fidelity or Pyramis Strategy.
For illustrative purposes only.
Hypothetical portfolio data has inherent limitations and may not reflect the effect that any material market or economic
factors may have had on Pyramis' use of the models. Hypothetical performance of a model is no guarantee of future results.
Attribute Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3
OAD (Months) 3 6 12
Spread Duration 6 12 18
Yield 0.39% 0.56% 0.82%
Hypothetical Impact of Instantaneous Shocks
For Institutional Use Only
Scenario 1
Fed Tightens 25 bp per meeting / Spreads widen 50 bps
Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3
Theoretical
Value
Theoretical
Value
Theoretical
Value
Initial Investment $100,000,000 $100,000,000 $100,000,000
Tightening 1 (1 Year Later) $100,400,000 $100,580,000 $100,840,000
Tightening 2 $100,400,000 $100,500,000 $100,640,000
Tightening 3 $100,410,000 $100,370,000 $100,250,000
Tightening 4 $100,540,000 $100,420,000 $100,180,000
Tightening 5 $100,740,000 $100,540,000 $100,170,000
Tightening 6 $100,940,000 $100,600,000 $99,980,000
Theoretical Ending Value at Year 2 $101,260,000 $100,850,000 $100,110,000
Hypothetical portfolio data has inherent limitations and may not reflect the effect that any material market or economic factors may
have had on Pyramis' use of the models. The performance shown does not relate to any Fidelity or Pyramis strategy.
Hypothetical performance of a model is no guarantee of future results
For Illustrative purposes only
30
Hypothetical Impact of Instantaneous Shocks
For Institutional Use Only
Scenario 2
Fed Tightens 50 bp per meeting / Spreads widen 100 bps
Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3
Theoretical
Value
Theoretical
Value
Theoretical
Value
Initial Investment $100,000,000 $100,000,000 $100,000,000
Tightening 1 (1 Year Later) $100,400,000 $100,570,000 $100,830,000
Tightening 2 $100,320,000 $100,310,000 $100,280,000
Tightening 3 $100,250,000 $99,940,000 $99,360,000
Tightening 4 $100,450,000 $99,950,000 $99,080,000
Tightening 5 $100,760,000 $100,080,000 $98,920,000
Tightening 6 $101,080,000 $100,100,000 $98,390,000
Theoretical Ending Value at Year 2 $101,660,000 $100,490,000 $98,500,000
Hypothetical portfolio data has inherent limitations and may not reflect the effect that any material market or economic factors may
have had on Pyramis' use of the models. The performance shown does not relate to any Fidelity or Pyramis strategy.
Hypothetical performance of a model is no guarantee of future results
For Illustrative purposes only
31
Hypothetical Impact of Instantaneous Shocks
32 For Institutional Use Only
Hypothetical data has inherent limitations due to the retroactive application of a model designed with the benefit of hindsight and
may not reflect the effect that any material market or economic factors may have had on Pyramis' use of the model. Thus, Simulated
Capabilities are speculative and of extremely limited use to any investor and should not be relied upon. Hypothetical performance of
the model is no guarantee of future results.
Theo
reti
cal L
oss
0.54%
1.11%
2.25%
0.19% 0.50%
1.13%
0.94%
1.90%
2.86%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3
The
ore
tica
l Lo
ss
Largest Interest Rate Shock: Dec 1980: 3-Month Bills Rise 228 bps in one week
Interest Rate Shock: 1994: 3-Month Bills Rise 128 bps over 3 months
Largest Spread Widening Sep 2008: TED Spread Widens 192 bps in one week
Yield
Hypothetical Impact of Instantaneous Shocks
For Institutional Use Only
Theoretical Value of Initial $100 Million Investment
Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3
Largest Interest Rate Shock
December 1980
3-Month Bills Rise 228 bps in One Week
$99,460,000
$98,890,000
$97,750,000
Interest Rate Shock
1994
3-Month Bills Rise 128 bps Over 3 Months
$99,810,000
$99,500,000
$98,870,000
Largest Spread Widening
September 2008
TED Spread Widens 192 bps in One Week
$99,060,000
$98,100,000
$97,140,000
Hypothetical portfolio data has inherent limitations and may not reflect the effect that any material market or economic factors may
have had on Pyramis' use of the models. The performance shown does not relate to any Fidelity or Pyramis strategy.
Hypothetical performance of a model is no guarantee of future results
For Illustrative purposes only
33
Regulatory Reform Update
For Institutional Use Only
Overview of SEC Rule Proposal
Alternative 1:
• Prime & municipal funds float unless such fund restricts each shareholder daily redemption to $1m
• Treasury and Government funds exempt
• Proposed effective date two years from proposal adoption
Alternative 2:
• When weekly liquidity of all prime and municipal funds 15% or less
• 2% redemption fee unless board chooses lower or no fee
• Board may gate redemptions for up to 30 days and may also lift gate
• Treasury & Government funds exempt – can voluntarily opt in
• Proposed effective date one year from proposal adoption
Alternative 3: • Prime & municipal funds float unless such fund restricts each shareholder daily redemption to $1m
• When weekly liquidity of all prime and municipal funds 15% or less
• 2% redemption fee unless board chooses lower or no fee
• Board may gate redemptions for up to 30 days and may also lift gate
• Treasury & Government funds exempt – can voluntarily opt in
35 For Institutional Use Only
36 For Institutional Use Only
Rule Proposal Expected Q2/Q3 2014
Proposed Effective Date
for Alternative 2
Q2/Q3 2015
Proposed Effective Date
for Alternative 1
2016 Q2/Q3
Jan 2013
Obama names
Mary Jo White as
SEC Chairman
Feb 2013
FSOC proposal
comment deadline
(extended from Jan 18)
Feb/Mar 2013
Mary Jo White
confirmed as
SEC Chairman
Aug 2013
Stein and Piwowar
replace Walters and
Paredes at SEC
Sept 2013
SEC comment
deadline
Apr 2013
SEC rule
proposal issued
2013 Key Events
Future Timeline
Money Market Fund Reform Timeline
Source: iMoneyNet and Fidelity as of 9/30/13
Fidelity’s Perspective
Municipal/tax-exempt money market funds should be excluded from any
structural reforms
The definition of a “retail” money market fund should be based on Social
Security Number account registration
Floating the NAV is not an effective means to achieve the SEC’s stated goal of
stemming rapid and significant redemptions
Liquidity fees and redemption gates is a more effective means to achieve the
SEC’s goals
Redemption fee should be reduced from 2% to 1%
The combination of liquidity gates and redemption gates and the floating NAV
would impose excessive costs and burdens on the industry
The compliance period should be extended to three years following the
effective date of a final rule
37 For Institutional Use Only
38
Important Information
Not FDIC insured. May lose value. No bank guarantee.
Not NCUA or NCUSIF insured. May lose value. No credit union guarantee.
Lipper Analytical Services, Inc., is a nationally recognized organization that ranks the performance of mutual funds.
The views expressed in this statement reflect those of the portfolio manager only through the end of the period of the report as stated on
the cover and do not necessarily represent the views of Fidelity or any other person in the Fidelity organization. Any such views are
subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and Fidelity disclaims any responsibility to update such views. These
views may not be relied on as investment advice and, because investment decisions for a Fidelity fund are based on numerous factors,
may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any Fidelity fund.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment return will fluctuate, therefore you may have a gain or loss when
you sell shares.
Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss.
Before investing, have your client consider the funds’ investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for
a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Have your client read it carefully.
For Institutional Investor Use only.
Fidelity Investments & Pyramid Design is a registered service mark of FMR LLC.
Fidelity Investments Institutional Services Company, Inc., 500 Salem Street, Smithfield, RI 02917
For Institutional Client Use Only
683929.2.0