Linking London: 20th May

Nick Davy, AoC National HE Policy Manager

The Labour Market Context: Opportunity?

Managers, directors and senior officials +586kProfessional occupations +1175kAssociate professional and technical +583kAdministrative and secretarial -486kSkilled trades occupations -306kCaring, leisure and other service + 649kSales and customer service -64kProcess, plant and machine operatives -214kElementary occupations -67k

Data – College HE problematic: UEL and HESA

Total HESA FT and PT figures for 20011/12:119,0402012/13:123,6102103/14:124,890HESA Increase 11/12 to 13/14: 4.6%HESA PT Decrease: 12/13 to 13/14: 9%UEL Decrease 08/09 to 12/13: 8.4%UEL PT Decrease 08/09 to 12/13: 32%

History of HE in Colleges Development of advanced FE in 1950s/1970s

Several occupational areas – work-based routes with off-the-job training

Professional certificates/diplomas; BEC/TEC; HNC/D

Full-Time and Sandwich Higher Education1971/72: circa 90K students/90 FE Institutions (200k students in universities);180K on AFE

Expansion in academic HE from late 80s – mid 90s; HEI expand; FEC HE flat-lined

NPHE in slow decline from early 2000s

Foundation degrees from 2001- 100K target met but HN replacement; honours progression; employer input?

Recent Trends in College Higher Education

Full time

Part time

Non-prescribed

Shape

Impact of lifting the Numbers Cap - see Australia

http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/features/the-australian-test-uncapped-student-numbers/2010630.fullarticle

Where is college HE?

Significant increase in enrolments

More enrolled from middle-ranking eligibility grades

Some improvement in enrolments from lower socio-economic groups

Lower/Middle–ranking HEIs grew fastest – often on teaching/nursing courses; Group of 8 less interested

Perceptions of ‘dilution of standards’ – not proven

Students less prepared for HE study? – evidence of improvements in HEI transition and support services.

TAFE colleges – protection; some expansion from a low base

Lifting the cap: What happened in Australia? [introduced in 2012/known from 2009]

HEI Recruitment – AAA/AAB Some RG – Exeter, Brum, Bristol – expanded

Those who have expanded continuing to expand; those contracted continuing to contract – across all tariff groups

Evidence of lowering grade offers

Improved transition/academic support offer?

UCAS Acceptances; 54% of providers decreased in size -11-14UK 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Higher Tariff

99K 94.8 96 102.8 105.7

Medium 132.3 132.4 126.6 134.2 137

Low 192 202.7 183.6 196.5 204.6

Higher Apprenticeships – an Eton mess? Confused funding streams

Trailblazer standards – almost 50% at level 4 +; qualifications?

Permeability - relationship to academic HE?

Concept of degree apprenticeships?

Widening participation?

Colleges take 12/15% more WP students

Threat to HEFCE Student Opportunity Grant?

More than progress to RG HEIs: added value for communities?

Key Issues for College HE

Adult skills budget cuts/encouraging HE expansion/entry

Fees Loans for adult FE – impact on adult supply?

Privates expanding (70% in London/SE); loans: £30m (‘10) to £600M (‘13)

At present pressure on middle-tariff; but could change?

Lifting of cap – support for FT academic degrees

Overall most colleges experiencing limited expansion – or small decline - apart from those new to market or niche

Limited policy prescriptions for PTHE

NPHE – ‘bottomed out’?

Where do we go from here?: Tough spot

Have too many colleges become ‘big schools’ – L1/2 provision?

Have we lost our reputation for technical and professional education? (levels 3/4/5?)

Are there too many small colleges?

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How can England create a technical education strand in public colleges?

Greater autonomy

National Accreditation Council

Awarding Powers

Improved LMI/Stronger employer links

Decrease intermediaries such as LEPs; regulate providers/buyers

Where do we go from here?: Macro

Larger colleges – FDAP

Smaller provision – work with HEI on clear mission – access; employer engagement; internal progression

Best colleges – 60% on HE courses – internal progression

Add value to employers – not just training/education

Niche local provision/employer-led

Guarantees/compacts for students who achieve set targets

Transition programmes

Working with communities

Year Zero/Accelerated provision

Customised – international

Where do we go from here?: Micro

Any Questions?

Nick DavyAoC HE Policy Manager nick_davy@aoc.co.uk