Lessons Learned from National Experiences: Allocating Environmental Water requirements of Lake Urmia, Iran: an Ecohydrological ApproachMukhtar HashemiMukhtar Hashemi ❶ Associate Researcher, The Centre for Land Use and Water Resources Research (CLUWRR), Newcastle University, UK; ❷ Scientific Advisor, The Office of Applied Researches, IWRMC, Ministry of Energy, Iran ❸ National IWRM Consultant, UNDP/GEF Conservation of Iranian Wetlands Project, Department of Environment, Iran22-24 Feb 2011Amman- JordanKempinski Hotel

WANA Forum Consultation Workshop

The setting

Lake Urmai Basin Iran

Lake area ~5000 km sq.Basin area ~52,000Population (2006): 5.9 M

The setting: Lake Urmia Basin, Iran

Includes some 13 major urban cities: 2 mega cities

7 % total Iran water resources and 3% of total area

Major agro economy

Lake Urmia Salt lake

Irrigated area 590,000 haFurther planned600,000

Water resources Development

63 dams

Dams:1. Feasibility study stage2. Under constructions 3. Existing

EA: 36 dams 760 MCMWA: 22 dams 2960 MCMKurdistan 5 dams 148 MCM

17 permanent rivers14 seasonal rivers39 flood routes

Lake Urmia: a view from inside

Simply : not enough water to the Lake: up to 7 km retreat

Lake Urmia: Costal retreat

A hydrodynamic scar: Highway bisecting the lake

Inflow decreased by 60% from average mean inflow (Long term)

Climatic variations and Drought: P downward trend 76 mm less than average

Impact on the Lake: Climatic

Source: Williams, 2002)

Salt lakes: Temp, P, net evaporation

5 Human induced factors (Williams, 2002)

1) Surface inflow diversions which will affect both the physical (volume, water level) and chemical (salinity) characteristics of the salt lakes - permanent salt lakes are more inclined to be affected by surface inflow diversions as well as catchment activities;

(2) Catchment activities

(a) secondary (or anthropogenic) salinisation caused by leaching of salt deposits in the catchment of the salt lakes; (sedimentation)

(b) soil erosion, (c) groundwater pumping and (wells

-salt intrusion) (d) urban development; (500% up)

Impact: Human factors

(3) Mining mostly affects dry lakes;

(4) Pollution especially from wastewater and agriculture and (

?5) Anthropogenically-induced climatic and atmospheric changes as climate models predict that the aridity of arid regions will increase.

National Outcry: The fear: another Aral

April 20101271.61

1277.69

Min ecological

1274.1

Mean

1275.37

Lake Level changes: sea of salt

199520012009

New ecohydrology policy

Lake – water to lake should maintain the biodiversity

In this case artima (salt shrimps) Water quantity- lake level Water quality – salt concentration Biodiversity- Artimia

September 2008: breakthrough Multidisciplinary research UNDP/GEF/DoE Conservation of

Iranian Wetlands Project (CIWP) MOU signed by all stakeholders

in 3 provinces EMP was agreed HOW TO Be Implemented?

Institutional Design

Water and Agriculture Working Group (WAWG): Sept 08-July 10

Water allocation strategy

Drought Risk Management Plan management

Demand managementInter-basin transfer

Objective facilitating a stakeholder participation

to reach a decision on water allocation among three provinces sharing the LU basin and

allocating the minimum ecological water requirement of the Lake.

Approach an integrated methodological framework to implement Lake Urmia’s IWRM Plan

The Approach: Socio-technical & Institutional Framework

Linking technical and socio-political (institutional ) frameworks together. Based on:

IWRM Conceptual framework (GWP, 2000) andAnalytical Frameworks:

DPSIR sustainability (EEA, 1999; IMPRESS 2002; Common Implementation Strategy WFD; OECD, 2002; EU, 2002) and

Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework (Ostrom, 1999, 2005)

natural system

Institutional

system

infrastructure

laws,regulatio

ns,management

socio-economicsystem

impactsdemands

Integrated water

resources management,

IWRM

Water Resources System

Integrated Socio-technical and Institutional, ISTI Framework,

Analytical Frameworks :required to 1.study change, 2.predict future trends, 3.assess impacts of policies on the water resources systems and

4.provide alternative options.

DPSIR has four characteristics

VariablesExamples

D, the Drivers: root causes on a macro level described through scenarios representing alternative futures

- Climate change: Climatic driver controls availability of water resources in time and space- Socio-economic drivers include local and global economic development, lifestyles etc - Social: Population growth - Economic: affordability and incentive measures- Institutional: compliance, privatization, legislations/regulation and administrative issues

P, The Pressures (threats) variables: immediate causes

- Demand for water from various sectors- Pollution which impacts on water quality and constrains resource availability e.g. the amount of pollution by wastewater

S, The States: describing physical and measurable characteristics and social livelihood systems

-Income levels, poverty levels- Natural resources/environmental: availability of water/energy/land, water consumption indices, Chemical composition of water, ecosystem state/biodiversity-Economic: level and security of investments, Condition of assets/infrastructure- Social: access to water/link with poverty, ability to pay, social capacity, employment in the water industry- Institutional: institutional arrangements, governance frameworks, capacity and functioning

I, The Impacts: monitor the long term impacts of change defined as changes in states resulting from pressures

- urbanisation -diseases caused by polluted water-changes in consumption behaviour, -environmental degradation

R, The Responses: are problem-solving policies, actions or investments; an appropriate mix of Structural Options e.g. new reservoirs/pipelines etc and Non-Structural Options e.g. legislation, institutional reform, demand management etc.

assemble portfolio of Options into robust Management Strategy-Social: capacity building and awareness raising campaigns. - Environmental: source protection,-Economic: the use of water saving infrastructure, incentives. - Institutional: efficiency measures, accountability, transparency, integration approach

Water allocation: VENSIM system Dynamics Modeling is required by Law in Iran

DPS

I

R

IWRM Conceptual model

Quantitative model-WSM

IAD Institutional Framework

R

Vensim System Dynamic Simulation water balance & Water Allocation

OrumiehLake

normal elevation Lake

Dimention LessElevation Lake

Orumieh Dimensionless Volume

Normal Volume

Elevation of Lake

Outflow

Inflow

P-E

Surface-Volume

Normal P-E

DamInflow 0Spill

Outflow 0

Total Demand-1

Volume- ElevationLook up Volume- Surface

Look up

Elevation-1Surface-1

Evaporation-1

mahabad0Elevation0-1

surface0-1

Mini-volume

Max-Volume

Normal Period-1

Total Supply-1

Shortage-1

NormalEvaporation-1

<FINAL TIME>

MonthlyEvaporation

<Inflow 0>

Comparison of Lake level under different conditions/simulations

IAD: Multi-level institutional framework

Rules

outcome: Sectoral provincial water allocation and consupmtion

ACTION ARENAActors and Action situation

Individuals’ actions that directly affect state variables in the world

OPERATIONAL LEVEL

COLLECTIVE-CHOICE LEVELGovernment policies

External

factors

decison making prespective: Ethical/cultural: Actors’ Perception of water rights/

ethics in rules

Figure 2: Analysis approach: (Ostrom, 1999, 2005)

Attributes of the

community

Biophysical conditions

Bulk provincial Water

Allocation

CONSTITUTIONAL LEVEL

council of Ministers / National Commitee/ Supreme Water Council /Parliament /Council of

Expediency

Figure 1: Modified IAD

Action Arena

CommunityAttributes

Evaluative CriteriaActors

Action Situations

Outcomes

Patterns of Interactions

Rules-in-Use

Source: Kiser and Ostrom, 1982; Ostrom, Gardner, and Walker 1994

Bio-physical Conditions

Ethical/ cultural context

socio-political context

Multilevel analytical framework:

Action arenas

two arenas: national and provincial -two administrative levels (

3 institutional level:

constitutional

collective choice

operational

Figure 1Action situation: water allocation decisions

Outcome: provincial/sectoral water allocation

Provincial Water Companies

PROVENCIAL LEVEL (Constitut

ional, collective

choice and

operational)

NATIONAL LEVEL (constitutional, collective choice and operational)

Parliament

Supreme Water Council

Council of Ministers

MoE: Water Allocation

Commission IWRMC: WR Planning

Directorate

Figure 3

ActorsWater , Agriculture & Natural Resources

Commission

MoE: Parliamentarian Undersecretary

Governors office: Water and Agriculture Commision

water resources development

policies /water pricing. Bulk

water allocation,

1982 Fair water

Distribution Act

Water Pricing

Bill/ water prices

Development Bill/ statuary

allocation priorities 2003 Water

Allocation By-Law

PROVENCIAL LEVEL (Constitut

ional, collective

choice and

operational)

NATIONAL LEVEL (constitutional, collective choice and operational)

Constitution, Water Vision, Council of Expediency and

Supreme Leader’s Water Directive ,

other relevant Acts e.g. 1905 Civil Code revised 1989; 1974 Environmental Act

Provincial water allocation priorities

outcome: Provincial sectoral water allocations

Figure 4

Rules

Attributes of the communityThe size and composition of the community

size: 3 provinces over 5 million peopleethnic (Kurdsih, Turkish-Azari)ethics/religion: Sunni and Shiite Muslim; as well as a small community of Assyrian and Armenian Christians

low level of common understanding about the action situation; lack of trust between different provinces

low level of homogeneity in the preferences and priorities of the provinces

there are disparity or inequality of basic assets among the provinces ????

Decision-making perspectivesdecision-making perspective framework acts

as a conceptual model filtering human perspectives and measuring cultural and ethical influences on the policy- making decisions.

3 components: the human elements of ethics or human perspectives (Spranger, 1928)

cultural context of ethics which relates to the environment in which decision making takes place.

legal context of belief (religion) (This is optional)

Example: to assess the extent of central government’s recognition of local level basin governanceIAD framework is used, i.e. the extent of

bottom up and decentralization processes, which is the cornerstone of IWRM. One would start with some policy options from the IAD analysis, then feed these through to DPSIR to provide some of the Drivers, and then iterate back to the IAD so that the various management options/strategies/plans can be fed into the policy making framework to reshape policy etc

Outcome: At national level/collective choice: New Law:

Total water in basin 6.9 BCM LU water rights approved by Council of Ministers – legal statuary – min ecological 3.1 BCM

3.7 BCM allocated among 3 provincdes

OUTCOME: action arena/WAWG and NC: 3rd of July 2010

Provincial allocations were made First time ever in Iran to make a

decision based on stakeholder involvement and in a transparent way

A major achievement in the environmental history of modern Iran

Conclusions: Water Allocation decision situation

Multi-stakeholder platform Good governance: Political support and will; transparency

LU water rights

MSP speed is…………slow 21 months to make a decision

Final remark: technical uncertainty polarized opinions

Technical narratives regarding data, scientific methodological approaches have dominated policy/decision making during WAWG

e.g. the question of droughts, climate change, reasons for LU's water level drop etc have been a source of debate and disagreement.

There are disagreements about 'facts', data, and evidence etc but the most evident indicator has been overseen: the lake level is falling and no one doubts this fact

Further work: Ethical and cultural

Water allocation decisions are influenced by cultural and ethical aspects which represent a dimension of the community attributes; and should not be ignored in the institutional analysis.

Human (capacity) development-maqaadid Model Islamic Legal theory

enrichment of faith

enrichment of intellect/reason

safeguarding posterity

enrichment ofwealth

invigorating the Human

self

human development

Maqasid Model

Revelation/ religion

Experiencesculture

Intellect/reason

Islamic Legal

Theory

sustainability science

IWRM Framework

environmental sustainability

equity/ justice economic efficiency

IWRM plan

good governance

DPSIR Analytical Framework

Pressures

Drivers State/impact

Responses

IDA Framework

Rules in Use

Community AttributesBiophysical Conditions

Ethical and Cultural Perspective

Thanks for your attention

School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences