Lesson 13 - IIT Bombay

GNR 639

Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

13.01

Lesson 13

Multi hazard analysis

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Types of mining disasters

• Side fall (slope failure) disaster in opencast mines• Roof and side falls in underground mines• Collapse of mine pillars• Air Blast• Failure of rope haulage• Accident due to electricity• Mine fires• Accidents due to explosive• Inundations• Explosions in mines• Rock burst and bumps

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Chemical and industrial emergencies arise from:

• Explosion in a plant• Accidents in storage facilities of chemicals• Accidents during the transportation of chemicals, misuse of chemicals• Improper waste management • Accidents in treatment plants• Technological system failures• Failures of plant safety design• Arson and sabotage• Human error

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Situations where stampedes can occur

• Entertainment events • Escalator and moving walkways• Food distribution • Processions • Natural disasters • Power failure • Religious events • Fire incidents during religious/other events • Riots • Sports events • Weather related

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Expected degree of loss due to a particular natural phenomenon is the product of hazard and vulnerability of exposed elements at risks

• hazard characteristics differ, and thus also the methods to analyze them

• hazards are related and influence each other - described as hazard chains, cascades, etc.

• natural processes exert diverging impacts on elements at risk, describe methods to distinguish them

• variety of risk description and quantification measures to be adapted to enable the comparison of multiple risks

Hence, carry out• joint hazard analysis of multiple natural threats

• assessment of the physical vulnerability of elements at risk toward multiple hazards

• analysis of risk arising from multiple natural hazards, combining the aspects hazard and vulnerability of exposed elements at risk

• joint visualization of multiple hazards.

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Water and climate disastersa) Floods and drainage managementb) Cyclonesc) Tornadoes and hurricanesd) Hailstorme) Cloud burstf ) Heat wave and cold waveg) Snow avalanchesh) Droughtsi) Sea erosionj) Thunder and lighteningk) Tsunami

Geological disastersa) Landslides and mudflowsb) Earthquakesc) Dam failures/ Dam burstsd) Minor firesiii. Chemical, industrial and nuclear related disastersa) Chemical and industrial disastersb) Nuclear disasters

Accident related disastersa) Forest firesb) Urban firesc) Mine floodingd) Oil spillse) Major building collapsef ) Serial bomb blastsg) Festival related disastersh) Electrical disasters and firesi) Air, road and rail accidentsj) Boat capsizingk) Village firej) stampede

Biological disastersa) Biological disasters and epidemicsb) Pest attacksc) Cattle epidemicsd) Food poisoning

Multi-hazard check list

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2. Vulnerability analysis - assessment should:

a) identify who are the most exposed and vulnerable populations to potential hazardsb)identify what assets are most exposed to potential hazardsc)assess the nature and factors contributing to their vulnerability d)estimate the susceptibility to hazards

3) In-country capacity to address disaster risk

National, provincial and local capacity to cope with disasters include policies, planning and investment that are in place or in the pipeline to build disaster resilience. The core stakeholder groups that should be engaged (national and local government, donors, UN and IFIs, NGOs, private sector and academia).

• cover the broad range of action: prevention, mitigation and emergency preparedness through to disaster response, recovery and reconstruction.

.

Multi-hazard risk assessment provide an overview of the risks.

1. Magnitude and likelihood of hazardsRisk assessment begin with the identification of what natural hazards can be expected and how they might change in the short and medium term as a result of climate change.

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4. Overall impact assessment

Estimating the potential impact of hazards will need to be derived from analysis of previous events, taking stock of improvements that will have reduced vulnerability, as well as any probabilistic modelling that exists.

Potential impacts from hazards are:

• economic through destruction/damage to infrastructure and businesses;• social through the death of family members, breakdown of networks and trauma;• environmental as an immediate consequence of the disaster, but also due to the reaction of the

effected community and the humanitarian response; and• political impacts due to a government’s inability or lack of willingness to respond.

Risk is a function of hazard exposure, vulnerability and coping capacityas shown below.

Risk = (Hazard exposure X Vulnerability) / Coping capacity

The stages in a multi-hazard risk assessment take each factor in turn to provide an overview of the risks

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13.09

Source courtesy: intechopen.com

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Method Advantages Disadvantages

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA)

Provides quantitative risk information that can be used in Cost-benefit analysis of risk reduction measures.

Very data demanding. Difficult to quantify temporal probability, hazard intensity and vulnerability.

Event-tree analysisAllow modelling of a sequence of events, and works well for domino effects

The probabilities for the different nodes are difficult to assess, and spatial implementation is very difficult due to lack of data.

Risk matrix approach

Allows to express risk using classes instead of exact values, and is a good basis for discussing risk reduction measures.

The method doesn’t give quantitative values that can be used in cost-benefit analysis of risk reduction measures. The assessment of impacts and frequencies is difficult, and one area might have different combinations of impacts and frequencies.

Indicator-based approach

Only method that allows to carry out a holistic risk assessment, including social, economic and environmental vulnerability and capacity.

The resulting risk is relative and doesn’t provide information on actual expected losses.

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Disaster resilience, climate change and other factors

Climate change has increased, and will continue to increase, the number of disasters caused by sudden extreme climatic events.

The impact of climate change on disaster resilience therefore needs to be considered.The risk assessment and disaster resilience strategy also need to take into account broader issues that will have implications on vulnerability and disaster risk. This could include population increase, migration and price rises.

Disaster resilience and conflict In fragile and conflict

-affected states, disaster resilience needs to be considered alongside conflict sensitivity. Conflict can pose a humanitarian threat in itself, as well as exacerbating vulnerability to other hazards. Interventions to promote disaster resilience need to ensure that they do not exacerbate underlying causes of conflict. In assessing hazards such as conflict or outbreaks of violence, it will be useful to draw on cross-

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13.20

Risk management frameworks:

•What are the probable dangers and their magnitude? (Danger Identification)

•How often do the dangers of a given magnitude occur? (Hazard Assessment)

•What are the elements at risk? (Elements at Risk Identification)

•What is the possible damage to the elements at risk? (Vulnerability Assessment)

•What is the probability of damage? (Risk Estimation)

•What is the significance of the estimated risk? (Risk Evaluation)

•What should be done? (Risk Management)

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RISK KNOWLEDGE

Establish a systematic, standardized process to collect, assess and share data, maps and trends on hazards and vulnerabilities.

1. Organizational Arrangements Established

• Identify agencies and role in hazard and vulnerability assessments

• Responsibility for coordinating hazard identification, vulnerability and risk

• Legislation or government policy mandates for all communities in place.

• National standards for data collection, sharing and assessment of hazard

• Assess and review the accuracy of risk data and information developed.

• Actively engage communities in local hazard and vulnerability analyses

• Review and update risk data each year

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2. Natural Hazards Identified

• Characterisation of natural hazards intensity, frequency and probability analyse and evaluate with historical data.

• Hazard maps developed to identify the geographical areas and communities that could be affected by natural hazards.

• An integrated hazard map developed (where possible) to assess the interaction of multiple natural hazards.

3. Community Vulnerability Analysed

• Community vulnerability assessments for all relevant natural hazards.

• Consider historical data sources in potential future hazard events vulnerability assessments.

• Factors such as gender, disability, access to infrastructure, economic diversity and environmental sensitivities considered.

• Vulnerabilities documented and mapped (people or communities along coastlines identified and mapped).

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4. Risks Assessed

• Interaction of hazards and vulnerabilities assessed to determine the risks faced by each region or community.

• Community and industry consultation

• Activities that increase risks identified and evaluated.

• Incorporate results of risks assessment into local risk management plans and warning messages.

5. Information Stored and Accessible

• GIS database to store all disaster and natural hazard risk information.

• Hazard and vulnerability data available to government, the public and the international community

• Maintenance plan developed to keep data current and updated.

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Source courtesy: intechopen.com

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Effective Communication Systems and Equipment Installed

• Communication and dissemination systems (radio or television for those with access; and sirens, warning flags or messenger runners for remote communities).

• Warning communication technology reaches the entire population, including seasonal populations and remote locations.

• Consult experts in the identification and procurement of appropriate equipment.

• Multiple communication mediums used for warning dissemination (mass media and informal communication).

• Agreements to utilise private sector resources (amateur radios, safety shelters).

• Consistent warning dissemination and communication systems used for all hazards.

• Communication system is two-way and interactive to allow for verification that warnings have been received.

• Equipment maintenance and upgrade programme implemented and redundancies enforced so back-up systems are in place in the event of a failure.

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Warning Messages Recognised and Understood

• Warning alerts and messages for diverse cultural, social, gender, linguistic and educational backgrounds.

• Warning alerts and messages are geographically specific to ensure warnings are targeted to those at risk only.

• Messages incorporate the understanding of the values, concerns and interests of those who will need to take action (instructions for safeguarding livestock and pets).

• Warning alerts clearly recognisable and consistent over time and include follow-up actions when required.

• Warnings specific about the nature of the threat and its impacts.

• Mechanisms in place to inform the community when the threat has ended.

• Study into how people access and interpret early warning messages undertaken and lessons learnt incorporated into message formats and dissemination processes.

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National Disaster Response Force (NDRF)

• NBC disasters (Decontamination of the area and personnel)• Removal of debris• Extrication of victims-live or dead• First medical response to victims• Extend moral support to victims• Assistance to civil authorities in distribution of relief material• Co-ordination with sister agencies• Capacity building

NDMA guidelines:-

• Management of Landslide and Snow Avalanches • Management of Cyclones • Management of Earthquake • Management of Floods• Chemical Disasters (Industrial) • Management of Chemical (Terrorism) Disasters • Preparation of State Disaster Management Plans• Psycho-Social Support and Mental Health Services in Disasters: • Medical Preparedness and Mass Casualty Management: Mass Casualty Event (MCE) • Management of Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies: • Incident Response System • Strengthening of Safety and Security for Transportation of POL tankers • Management of Biological Disaster: Biological Disaster Management (BDM) including Bio-terrorism (BT) • Management of Tsunami of various tool kits for tsunami risk management • Role of NGOs in Disaster Management • Urban Flooding • Management of Dead in the Aftermath of Disaster • Plan to counter threats to Municipal Water Supply and Water Reservoirs

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Thank you

Documents

Lesson 13 - IIT Bombay