Undiscovered Resources Largest Undiscovered Field

MFS Prob. Oil (MMBO)

(0-1) F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean

Oil Fields 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA

Gas Fields 18 587 2,460 5,950 2,763 24 105 276 122 159 570 2,027 750

Total 1.00 0 0 0 0 587 2,460 5,950 2,763 24 105 276 122

1.00

Leshan-Longnusi Paleohigh, Assessment Unit 31420401Assessment Results Summary

[MMBO, million barrels of oil. BCFG, billion cubic feet of gas. MMBNGL, million barrels of natural gas liquids. MFS, minimum field size assessed (MMBO or BCFG). Prob., probability (including both geologic and accessibility probabilities) of at least one field equal to or greater than the MFS. Results shown are fully risked estimates. For gas fields, all liquids are included under the NGL (natural gas liquids) category. F95 represents a 95 percent chance of at least the amount tabulated. Other fractiles are defined similarly. Fractiles are additive under the assumption of perfect

positive correlation. Shading indicates not applicable]

Field Type Gas (BCFG) NGL (MMBNGL) (MMBO or BCFG)

31420401Leshan-Longnusi Paleohigh

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 8,000.00 BCFGEntire range is from 30.77 to 12,726.88 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 7.55

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 2,763.46Median 2,459.63Mode ---Standard Deviation 1,688.24Variance 2,850,156.55Skewness 0.91Kurtosis 3.81Coefficient of Variability 0.61Range Minimum 30.77Range Maximum 12,726.88Range Width 12,696.12Mean Standard Error 7.55

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.005

.011

.016

.022

0

269.5

539

808.5

1078

0.00 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00

50,000 Trials 360 Outliers

Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields

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31420401Leshan-Longnusi Paleohigh

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 30.7795% 586.7590% 846.5185% 1,071.5480% 1,276.0175% 1,470.8170% 1,658.3065% 1,849.9960% 2,043.4055% 2,244.9050% 2,459.6345% 2,683.2740% 2,925.2635% 3,175.3930% 3,450.9425% 3,758.2420% 4,119.8415% 4,557.5110% 5,098.365% 5,949.710% 12,726.88

End of Forecast

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31420401Leshan-Longnusi Paleohigh

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 350.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 1.41 to 678.56 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.36

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 121.55Median 104.90Mode ---Standard Deviation 79.70Variance 6,351.75Skewness 1.15Kurtosis 4.71Coefficient of Variability 0.66Range Minimum 1.41Range Maximum 678.56Range Width 677.15Mean Standard Error 0.36

Frequency Chart

MMBNGL

.000

.005

.011

.016

.021

0

266.7

533.5

800.2

1067

0.00 87.50 175.00 262.50 350.00

50,000 Trials 693 Outliers

Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields

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31420401Leshan-Longnusi Paleohigh

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBNGL100% 1.4195% 24.0090% 35.0985% 44.6080% 53.0775% 61.3770% 69.9565% 78.3060% 86.7655% 95.7850% 104.9045% 114.8540% 125.4735% 137.0930% 149.8625% 164.8620% 181.6915% 202.1010% 230.295% 276.500% 678.56

End of Forecast

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31420401Leshan-Longnusi Paleohigh

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Gas Field

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 2,500.00 BCFGEntire range is from 26.94 to 3,497.68 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 2.66

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 750.16Median 570.22Mode ---Standard Deviation 594.40Variance 353,309.68Skewness 1.77Kurtosis 6.45Coefficient of Variability 0.79Range Minimum 26.94Range Maximum 3,497.68Range Width 3,470.74Mean Standard Error 2.66

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.008

.016

.024

.032

0

400

800

1600

0.00 625.00 1,250.00 1,875.00 2,500.00

50,000 Trials 1,205 Outliers

Forecast: Largest Gas Field

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31420401Leshan-Longnusi Paleohigh

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Gas Field (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 26.9495% 159.3090% 215.1285% 261.8780% 304.5075% 343.6970% 384.1865% 427.5760% 473.5055% 518.1350% 570.2245% 627.3840% 690.1735% 761.7230% 848.4725% 956.3120% 1,091.4115% 1,275.8110% 1,540.205% 2,027.000% 3,497.68

End of Forecast

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31420401Leshan-Longnusi Paleohigh

Monte Carlo Results

Assumptions

Assumption: Number of Gas Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 1Likeliest 13Maximum 50

Selected range is from 1 to 50Mean value in simulation was 21

Assumption: Sizes of Gas Fields

Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersMean 116.71 134.71Standard Deviation 302.56 302.56

Selected range is from 0.00 to 3,482.00 18.00 to 3,500.00Mean value in simulation was 111.43 129.43

1 13 26 38 50

Number of Gas Fields

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31420401Leshan-Longnusi Paleohigh

Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: Sizes of Gas Fields (cont'd)

Assumption: LGR in Gas Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 22.00Likeliest 44.00Maximum 66.00

Selected range is from 22.00 to 66.00Mean value in simulation was 43.98

End of Assumptions

Simulation started on 12/30/99 at 16:53:05Simulation stopped on 12/30/99 at 17:10:51

0.58 765.83 1,531.09 2,296.34 3,061.60

Sizes of Gas Fields

22.00 33.00 44.00 55.00 66.00

LGR in Gas Fields

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