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INITIATION REPORT 27 November 2013

Leon Fuat Bhd

Price : RM0.48

Market Capitalization : RM148.8 mln

Board : Main Market

Sector : Industrial Products

Bursa / Bloomberg Code: 5232 / LEFU MK Stock is Shariah-compliant.

Recommendation : Buy

*proforma basis; n/a=data not available as LFB was only listed in June 2013.

Last 12-Month Share Price Chart

Source: Bloomberg

Key Stock Statistics

FYE Dec FY12* FY13f

EPS (sen) 7.8 7.9

P/E (x) 6.2 6.1

Net Div/Share (sen) n/a 2.4

NTA/Share (RM) 0.58 0.64

Book Value/Share (RM) 0.58 0.64

Issued Capital (mln

52-w eek Hi-Low (RM)

Major Shareholders:

Leon Fuat Holdings S/B

LTAT 5.5

70.9

310.0

0.425-0.675

Per Share Data

FYE Dec FY11* FY12* FY13f

Book Value (RM) n/a 0.58 0.64

Cash Flow (sen) 9.8 9.3 9.8

Earnings (sen) 8.1 7.8 7.9

Net Dividend (sen) n/a n/a 2.4

Payout Ratio (%) n/a n/a 30.0%

PER (x) 6.0 6.2 6.1

P/Cash Flow (x) 5.0 5.2 4.9

P/Book Value (x) n/a 0.8 0.8

Dividend Yield (%) n/a n/a 4.9%

ROE (%) n/a 13.4% 12.3%

Net gearing (x) n/a 0.7 0.6

Investment Highlights / Summary

• Carving a niche as a steel products trading house that offers value-added processing services customized according to clients’ requirements, with operating track record spanning more than four decades.

• Well-balanced exposure. With a wide product

range in both long and flat products, LFB has established a large clientele across various industries to cushion potential slowdown in any particular sector. Its high trading volume also gives rise to economies of scale to enjoy bulk discount when procuring from suppliers.

• Solid earnings delivery despite slowdown in the steel industry. Whilst a number of steel players are loss-making due to slowdown in demand and issues of overcapacity, LFB continues to register robust performance with a proforma 3-year net profit CAGR of 12%, backed by a healthy balance sheet.

• Earnings growth going forward will be driven by additional capacity from a planned new plant and new services. Management will also continuously gear efforts toward selling higher profit margin products. We project net profit at RM24.5 mln (+1.5% y-o-y) and FY26.2 mln (+7.1% y-o-y) in FY13 and FY14 respectively.

• Risks include fluctuations in commodity prices; possible slowdown in manufacturing and construction sectors affecting sales; and high inventory holding costs.

• Initiate coverage with Buy recommendation and a fair value of 68 sen, derived from a blend of 10x PER and 0.8x P/BV approach. The stock also offers a healthy estimated net dividend yield of 4.9%. We like the Group’s consistent earnings track record despite the highly challenging operating environment, led by its hands-on management with in-depth experience. The gradual improving outlook for the steel industry would augur well for LFB as well. Moderating factors include relatively small market capitalization and illiquid share trading volume.

ZJ Research Investment Research for

CMDF – Bursa Research

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Background

Corporate profile

Leon Fuat Bhd (LFB) is an investment holding company while its subsidiaries are principally involved in the trading and processing of steel products, specializing in rolled long and flat products. The Group also provides value-added services such as cutting, leveling, shearing, profiling, bending and finishing of products according to customers’ needs. LFB was listed on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia on 5 June 2013.

The Group started as a family business back in 1972, having been co-founded by three siblings – Mr. Ooi Bin Keong, Mr. Ooi Kong Tiong and the late Mr. Ng Chee Tiang. In the early days, the primary business emphasis was trading of steel products. Over time, the business expanded to include processing activities. While carbon steel remains its core focus, LFB also trades and processes other steel products such as stainless steel and alloy steel.

The Group started its operations in Sg. Besi, Kuala Lumpur and has since expanded its factory locations to Klang, Selangor. Currently, the Group has four subsidiaries and is headquartered in Klang. It operates three plants:- two in Sg. Besi and one in Klang, all of which are equipped with various machines and equipment to undertake the value-added processing work. Three of its four subsidiaries are certified with ISO9001:2008 certification.

At present, Mr. Ooi Bin Keong continues to lead LFB as the Group Managing Director while co-founder Mr. Ooi Kong Tiong serves as the Executive Director. Others in the 9-member Board of Directors include Executive Directors, Mr. Ooi Seng Khong (sibling of Mr. Ooi Bin Keong and Mr. Ooi Kong Tiong), Mr. Ng Kok Teong (son of the late Mr. Ng Chee Tiang) and Mr. Ooi Shang How (son of Mr. Ooi Bin Keong); as well as four independent non-executive directors including the Chairman.

In terms of shareholding structure, the Ooi and Ng families control the Group via its vehicle, Leon Fuat Holdings Sdn. Bhd., which holds an equity stake of approximately 70.9% in LFB. Other substantial shareholder is Lembaga Tabung Angkatan Tentera (LTAT) with 5.5%-stake.

Corporate structure.

Source: company

Steel products trading house which

offers processing services

Over four decades of

operating history

Currently operates 3

plants in Klang Valley

Co-founder continues

to helm the Group

Founding family remains as substantial

shareholder, together

with LTAT

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BUSINESS

LFB is primarily involved in the downstream activities of the steel industry. It has two primary business segments from which the Group derives its revenue and earnings, as depicted in the following diagram:-

Trading. The root of LFB can be traced back to trading four decades ago and

today, it remains a core focus at the Group. The trading activity involves buying and selling flat and long steel products, with majority of them being carbon steel although it also carries stainless steel and alloy steel products. The table below lists the common trading products sold by LFB:-

Source: Company

For each of the products above, LFB stocks up various types and dimensions (eg. varying thickness, width, length and diameter) in order to cater to its customers’ needs. Additionally, a more specialized range of quenched and tempered steel is also available for customers looking for products with high wear resistant as well as high hardness and structural strength.

Processing. This division complements the trading business by providing value-added services to LFB’s customers such as cutting, levelling, shearing, profiling, bending and finishing, as well as producing customized expanded steel upon customer request. The Group ventured into this segment as management believed there is demand for such services that are underserved by others in the industry. Moreover, this capability also gives the Group an edge over other steel products trading houses.

Trades both flat and long steel products, with

focus on carbon

steel

Involved in the downstream activities

of steel industry

Offers a wide range

of products

Provides processing services customized

according to customer

requirements

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Machinery. LFB provides processing services across carbon steel, stainless steel and alloy steel products using a wide range of specialized machinery at its facilities, which include:-

Source: Company

Production capacity. All processing works undertaken by LFB are based on

secured orders as the output are customized in accordance to customers’ requirements. From its three plants located in Sg. Besi and Klang, the Group is currently running at approximately 80% capacity for its cutting machines and about 40% for its coil levelling machines. The cutting machines include CNC oxy-gas and plasma cutting machines, oxy-gas cutting machines with optical tracer, CNC oxy-gas cutting machines, CNC plasma cutting machines, CNC laser cutting machines and CNC waterjet cutting machine.

Trading vs. Processing. The processing division on average contributes approximately 60% of Group revenue with the balance coming from the trading business. In terms of materials, carbon steel products make up about 80% of the overall Group turnover. Meanwhile, flat and long product categories account for roughly 80% and 20% of turnover respectively.

FY12 Revenue Breakdown by Different Measures

Source: Company

Current utilization rates: 80% for

cutting services and 40% for coil

leveling

Has a large range of specialized

machinery

FY12 revenue split: 63% from processing

services and 37%

from trading

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Customers and Distribution Network. LFB sells to both direct and indirect users of its products. Its direct customers include steel products and components manufacturers; machinery and equipment fabricators and companies involved in building, construction and infrastructure industries. The Group has sales and marketing offices located in Klang, Selangor and Sg. Besi, Kuala Lumpur to serve the direct customers. Meanwhile, the indirect channel comprises hardware wholesalers and retailers, who in turn sell LFB products to end-user consumers.

Source: Company

Given the nature of LFB’s business as a trading house complemented by its processing services, it has a diverse pool of customers numbering close to 4,000, and none contributed more than 10% to the Group revenue. On average, its top 500 active customers contribute approximately 85%-90% to its turnover, and over 90% of them are repeat customers.

Top 500 Customers Contributed Approx. 90% of FY12 Turnover

Source: Company

Geographical reach. The Group predominantly serves the local market, where domestic turnover usually accounts for more than 95% of Group revenue. For FY12, local sales accounted for 98% of total turnover, with the balance coming from markets such as Japan, Singapore and Indonesia.

Sells to both direct and indirect users

across various

industries

Serves mainly the

local market for now

Large clientele of close to 4,000

customers

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Raw materials. LFB’s main raw materials consist of carbon steel, stainless steel and alloy steel. The Group sources about two-third of its supply locally with the balance from overseas. The ratio between flat steel and long steel materials purchases are approximately 80:20, with carbon steel making up roughly 80% of the total procurement.

Value chain. The steel product value chain is summarized in the follwing diagram:-

Primary steel products refer to blooms, billets, ingots and slabs which are the output from the processing of pig iron, direct reduced iron, hot briquetted iron or molten iron. The primary steel products then undergo hot-rolling and/or cold-rolling processes and are turned into rolled steel products such as hot-rolled and cold-rolled flat and long steel products.

Rolled steel products subsequently undergo further processing to form finished products referred to as secondary steel products. Examples include tubes and pipes, wire and wire products and sheet metal products. Across the different product phases, there will be scrap steel produced. These discarded steel, however, can be recycled or reused and hence, minimizing waste.

Services refer to the provision of value-added processes for rolled and secondary steel products that include slitting, shearing, cutting, bending, leveling etc.

Peers/Competitors. There are a number of local steel players, both listed and unlisted, in the industry. For trading of rolled steel products, LFB’s listed peers include Ann Joo Resources Bhd, AYS Ventures Bhd, SMPC Corporation Bhd, Prestar Resources Bhd, and WZ Steel Bhd, as well as a number of unlisted ones.

As for providers of steel processing services, there are Ann Joo Resources Bhd, Choo Bee Metal Industries Bhd, SMPC Corpration Bhd and Prestar Resources Bhd, being the listed peers, in addition some privately-held companies.

Competitive advantages. Having survived and in fact, continues to thrive in a challenging environment for the past four decades, LFB counts itself as having several key strengths to help keep competition at bay.

First and foremost, it has established a proven track record in product quality and service reliability, as evident in the high number of repeat customers at the Group. The next plus factor includes the variety of product offerings that serves as a one-stop shop for its customers. In addition to that, LFB’s in-house processing facilities enables its customers to customize the products according to their requirements in a speedy manner without compromising quality. Its trading and processing activities allow management to achieve economies of scale by procuring in bulk and enjoying volume discount.

Primary steel products: blooms,

billets, ingots & slabs

Rolled steel products: tubes & pipes, wire & wire

products, sheet

metal products

A number of peers in the industry, both listed and

unlisted

Main raw materials:

carbon steel

Key strengths: Track record;

product offering; customized

processing services; economies of scale;

large customer base.

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Meanwhile, it has also built up a large customer base across various sectors and channels (direct and indirect customers) that provides some form of diversification in the event of downturn in certain industries.

Financial Highlights

On a proforma basis, LFB recorded double-digit revenue growth of 33.6% y-o-y and 14.3% y-o-y in FY10 and FY11 respectively, mainly driven by the demand growth in the carbon steel products, particularly carbon steel coils. Turnover subsequently declined 19.5% y-o-y to RM437.3 mln in FY12, which according to management, was a conscious strategy to scale down trading of certain products that carry lower profit margin and focus instead on higher margin products. This was evident in the profit performance where FY12 gross profit (GP) increased by 1.6% y-o-y to RM60.9 mln despite the 19.5% reduction in revenue. As a result, GP margin rose to 13.9% in FY12 from 11.0% in the preceding year. Overall, the Group registered a healthy 3-year net profit Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12% between FY09 and FY12.

LFB: Proforma Financial Performance between FY09 and FY12

The local steel industry has been in the doldrums over the past few years due to slowdown in demand for steel products and issues of global overcapacity that resulted in dumping activities by some overseas manufacturers. However, while several local steel manufacturers are loss-making, LFB has been consistently profitable during this period. As illustrated in the chart below, net profit margin between FY09 to FY11 had largely been stable at above 4% before edging up to 5.5% in FY12 following management’s deliberate decision to improve product sales mix.

LFB: Proforma Profit Margin between FY09 and FY12

Double-digit sales growth in FY10 &

FY11

Consistent earnings delivery despite

slowdown in industry

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Management explained that the consistent profit track record despite the present predicament in the steel industry was principally due to its focus as a trading house that provides value-added services. As a trading house, the Group’s business model is mainly on cost-plus basis and it does not carry too much inventory which is susceptible to fluctuation in pricing. Meanwhile, all its processing services are carried out based on secured orders from customers.

In terms of segmental performance, we noted that turnover from the processing business has grown steadily and overtaken the trading revenue from FY12 onwards. For FY12 and 1HFY13, turnover from processing contributed more than 60% to Group sales, up from the 40%-level in FY09.

LFB: Revenue composition between FY09 and 1HFY13

The tilt toward processing activities is another deliberate strategy by the management. Apart from providing value-added services to differentiate from competition, processing jobs generally yield higher GP margin for the Group, as depicted in the following chart:-

LFB: Proforma Performance by Business Segments

We note that the effective tax rates for LFB tend to range between 28% and 29%, which is above the statutory rate of 25%, due to certain non-deductible expenses.

Higher-than-statutory

tax rate

Processing turnover now surpassed

trading turnover

Processing services offer higher profit

margin than trading

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On balance sheet strength, the Group has a manageable net gearing of 0.5x, backed by a BV/share of 62 sen as of end-June 2013. Out of the RM137.7 mln total borrowings as at 1HFY13, approximately 90% consists of short term borrowings such as bankers’ acceptance for trade financing purposes. Trade receivables, at 90-odd days, also fall within the credit terms given by the Group, which range between 60 days and 120 days. As most customers are repeat buyers and have established good relationships with the Group, bad debts and impairment loss on receivables appear to be negligible at less than 0.1% of Group turnover. Inventory too, appears healthy at about 4 months, which we considered to be a norm in the industry.

Earnings Outlook

New plant. Going forward, LFB plans to construct a new processing plant with warehouse facilities located opposite its current headquarter in Klang. It has already acquired the parcel of land that measures about 3 acres in size. The estimated built-up area for the new plant is 40,000sf to 60,000sf. The construction cost is estimated at RM6 mln. Management plans to begin construction in 2014 with operations slated to commence in 2015.

New services. At present, the Group’s processing services include cutting,

leveling, shearing, profiling, bending and finishing of products, in addition to production of expanded metal. With the new plant mentioned above, management plans to introduce another new service, which is slitting of coils into various width according to customer requirements. It has budgeted RM6 mln to equip the new plant with two units of slitting machines.

The combined RM12 mln planned investement mentioned earlier (excluding land cost) forms the main capex budget for the next two years and shall be funded using the IPO proceeds from its listing.

Further sales mix improvement. As part of the growth strategy,

management continues to rebalance its product sales mix towards processing services which carry higher profit margin. While trading remains a core business, efforts are also put in place to focus on trading products that offer better profitability. In terms of client industry, we understand the Group would like to further develop opportunities to serve certain clientele such as those in the high-precision engineering and machinery segments where again, the profit margin prospects are better.

Earnings projection. We believe management will continue to grow the Group on a gradual and steady manner in order to sustain profitability and steer through the current challenging environment in the steel industry, instead of undertaking aggressive growth path that may carry higher operating risks. As such, we project LFB to achieve a modest 5%-6% topline growth in revenue in FY13 and FY14 to RM462.5 mln and RM487.7 mln respectively. As for net profit, we forecast earnings to grow a marginal 1.5% y-o-y only in FY13 to RM24.5 mln due to recognition of some one-off listing expenses in connection with its public offering exercise. Subsequently, we expect net earnings to grow faster by 7.1% y-o-y to RM26.2 mln in FY14.

Investment Risks

Volatility in commodity prices. As LFB deals with steel which is an

international commodity, it is exposed to volatility in steel prices. While fluctuations are a norm in the industry, a sudden and drastic change in steel prices may adversely affect the Group’s profitability. Management mitigates the risk by quoting selling prices based on current market prices and closely monitoring its inventory levels. As a trading house, it operates on cost-plus basis and is largely able to pass through price differentials to customers.

To construct new processing plant

with warehousing

facilities

Healthy balance

sheet

To introduce new

slitting services

To further improve

sales mix

Projects a modest 5%-6% annual

revenue growth in

FY13 and FY14

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While periods of extreme volatility in steel prices would affect profitability, LFB has managed well and remained profitable during the downturn of the steel industry.

Slowdown in manufacturing and construction sectors. Machine

fabricators contributed slightly more than a third of the Group revenue and slowdown in the manufacturing sector may impact LFB’s profitability. Exposure to construction industry is lower by comparison, with only 5% contribution to consolidated turnover in FY12. Management minimizes risk by offering a variety of products in both the rolled long and flat steel categories, catering to different sub-sector customers. Its large clientele of close to 4,000 customers also provides some form of risk diversification.

Inventory holding cost. As an intermediary, LFB buys in bulk from its suppliers and in turn sells to its customers in smaller quantities. It also carries a wide range of products to cater to different customers needs. In the process, it has to keep a certain level of inventory in order to ensure timely delivery to customers. This may result in high inventory holding cost as the Group tends to fund purchases using trade borrowings. It manages the risk by factoring in holding cost into selling prices, and adhering to its inventory management procedures to ensure optimal level of stocks and to avoid over- or under-stocking. It also helps that the products does not have a definite shelf life and do not become obselete.

Valuation

We have a number of companies listed on Bursa Malaysia that are involved in the steel industry – from manufacturers to processing service providers and trading houses. The table below displays some of the listed peers operating in the steel industry:

Source: Bloomberg, respective company data, ZJ Research

Note that we have excluded steel players who are loss-making in their latest financial year, with the exception of Ann Joo Resources due to the similarity in the nature of business. Another exclusion was WZ Satu Bhd (formerly known as WZ Steel Bhd) owing to its rich valuation at 35x PER.

Based on the table above, the peers are trading at an average forward PER of 11.9x and P/BV of 0.5x. By comparison, LFB’s prospective PER of 6.1x is certainly on the lower-end of the PER range, while its P/BV of 0.8x is on the higher-end of the band.

Company

Share

Price

(RM)

Trailing

PER

(x)

Forward

PER (x)

P/BV

(x)^

Mkt Cap

(RM mln)

Net

gearing

(x)^

Leon Fuat 0.48 6.2 6.1 0.8 148.8 0.5

Malaysia Steel Works 1.08 9.9 8.8 0.4 237.1 0.4

Choo Bee Metal 1.62 10.5 9.5 0.4 176.5 0.1

CSC Steel 1.31 14.5 15.6 0.6 487.2 net cash

Southern Steel 1.63 16.1 12.6 0.8 683.7 1.1

Mycron Steel 0.40 9.1 n/a 0.3 70.3 0.4

AYS Ventures 0.31 6.3 n/a 0.6 116.0 0.9

Annjoo Resources 1.17 n/a 13.0 0.6 585.8 1.7

Avg excl Leon Fuat 11.1 11.9 0.5

^ based on latest quarterly results

Peer comparison

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In deriving our fair value for LFB, we have adopted a blended PER and P/BV valuation approach, using a combination of 10x PER and 0.8x P/BV. By ascribing a target 10x PER on FY14 earnings and 0.8x P/BV, we arrive at a fair value of 68 sen for LFB. Our target PER multiple factors in a 15% discount to the peers’ prospective PER to reflect the Group’s relatively smaller market capitalization and short listing history.

Recommendation

We initiate our coverage on LFB with a BUY recommendation and a fair value of 68 sen, translating into a potential share price upside of 42%. Our fair value is also supported by a healthy estimated FY13 net dividend yield of 4.9%, based on the Group’s dividend policy to pay out 30% of net profit to reward shareholders.

Within the steel industry, we like LFB for its consistent earnings delivery record despite the highly challenging operating environment. We credit this to the leadership’s in-depth experience and hands-on management. With four decades of operating history, the Group has weathered through numerous cycles in this cyclical industry and we believe it would be able to continue doing so. Domestically, the steel industry outlook is also gradually improving following some anti-dumping moves taken by the Government, in addition to Government’s planned infrastructure expenditures, ongoing property development activities and projected decent manufacturing sector growth. LFB’s prospective valuation at 5.7x FY14 PER with 4.9% net dividend yield also appears to be undemanding.

Moderating factors include the Group’s relatively small market capitalization and illiquid share trading volume which may temper institutional investors’ interest.

P&L Summary

Source: Company, ZJ Research

Balance Sheet

* On proforma basis. Source: Company Analyst: Nicole Tan Yoke Ping (nicole@zj.com.my)

FYE Dec (RM mln) FY11 FY12 FY13e FY14f

Revenue 542.9 437.2 462.5 487.7

Operating profit 40.9 38.9 40.2 42.9

Net Int Exp (7.1) (5.5) (6.7) (7.0)

Pre-tax Profit 33.8 33.4 33.5 35.9

Eff. Tax Rate 25.6% 27.9% 27.0% 27.0%

Net Profit 25.2 24.1 24.5 26.2

Op. Profit Margin (%) 7.5% 8.9% 8.7% 8.8%

Pre-tax Margin (%) 6.2% 7.6% 7.3% 7.4%

Net Margin (%) 4.6% 5.5% 5.3% 5.4%

FYE Dec (RM mln) FY12* 6MFY13

Total Assets 331.7 384.8

Non-Current Assets 95.3 85.1

Current Assets 236.4 299.7

Current Liabilities 145.2 177.9

Long Term Liabilities 6.1 13.3

Share Capital 155.0 155.0 Shareholders' Equity 180.5 193.6

Initiate with Buy call, fair value at 68

sen

Fair value of 68 sen

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RATING GUIDE BUY Price appreciation expected to exceed 10% within the next 12 months

SELL Price depreciation expected to exceed 10% within the next 12 months

HOLD Price movement expected to be between -10% and +10% over the next 12 months from current level

DISCLAIMER

This report is for information purposes only and has been prepared by ZJ Advisory based on sources believed to be reliable at the time of issue of this report. We however do not give any guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Any opinions or estimates in this report are that of ZJ Advisory as of this date and are subject to change without notice. ZJ Advisory has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this report beyond the scope of participation under the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme.

ZJ Advisory and/or its directors and staff may have an interest in the securities mentioned herein. Furthermore, ZJ Advisory and its related companies may, from time to time, provide or seek to provide advisory and/or other services for the company(ies) mentioned in this report, and may be involved in share placement exercise involving securities mentioned herein. In reviewing this research report, investors should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, may among other things, give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest.

This report is under no circumstances to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities discussed or opined in this report. Investors should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not materialize. This report may contain forward looking statement and forecasts, which are based on assumptions that are subject to uncertainties. Any deviation from the expectations may have adverse effect on the projections and prospects contained herein. ZJ Advisory accepts no liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from the use of this report.

This report has been prepared by ZJ Advisory for purposes of CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme ("CBRS") administered by Bursa Malaysia Berhad and has been compensated to undertake the scheme. ZJ Advisory has produced this report independent of any influence from CBRS or the subject company. For more information about CBRS and other research reports, please visit Bursa Malaysia’s website at: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/research-repository/cmdf-bursa-research-scheme-cbrs.

ZJ Advisory Sdn Bhd (Co No: 645449-V) (An investment adviser licensed by the Securities Commission) Suite 22B, 22nd Floor, Sunway Tower, No 86, Jalan Ampang, 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel (603) 2032 2328 Facsimile (603) 2032 1328