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Real Estate Finance and Investments: Lecture 1
Real Estate Investment Decisions
Investment Analysis
Immediate sacrifice; possibility of future awards More opportunities than resources Incomplete information Rank in terms of least expected risks Real estate earns presence in financial investing world in 1950’s
and 1960’s Currently, computerized modeling helps make more informed
and risk-hedging decisions in real estate investing
Others Who Invest in Real Estate
Institutional Investors– Pension Funds– Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT’s)
Foreign Participation– Exchange Rates– Relative Interest Rates
Why Invest in Real Estate?
TWO FORMS OF VALUE AND RETURN TO INVESTING IN REAL ESTATE:
1. Periodic Cash Flow
2. Market Appreciation / Equity Build
Why Invest in Real Estate?
Price Determined By:
1. Amount and timing of anticipated cash flows
2. How much will be received, and when
3. Degree of confidence with which expectations are held
4. Investors’ tolerance for bearing risk
5. Attractiveness of alternative investment opportunities
Basic Types of Real Estate
Residential– Multi-Family, Single-Family
Commercial– Land (All Types)– Retail– Agricultural / Industrial– Office– Special Purpose
Types of Investors
– Passive Can make NO operating decisions
– Active Make operating decisions of the underlying assets
– Equity Purchasing asset for expected cash flows and market
appreciation– Debt
Purchasing debt for expected streams of income (interest from debt service)
Types of Investors (examples)
Loan Origination;
Construction Lending
Permanent loans
Loan purchases on secondary
mortgage market
Direct ownership of rental property; purchase or development
Pass-through certificates
Mortgage REIT’s
MBS’s – Residential and/or Commercial
Shares in real estate corporation
Limited partnership shares
Equity REIT
Debt (streams of interest) Equity (cash flow & apprec.)
Active(makes
operating decisions)
Passive (makes no operating decisions)
Performance of Real Estate Investments
Data sparse and contradictory– Yield indices computed quarterly by appraisal
estimates– Indicators smoothed; eliminates true measure of
volatility
CREF’s and REIT’s
Commingled Real Estate Fund (CREF) – “Real Estate Pension Fund of the 1970’s”
– CREF acquires real estate and monitors its operation on behalf of institutional investors
– Brueggeman, Chen, Tibodeau: Real estate outperformed S&P 500 and Ibbotson Assoc between 1972 – 1983. After adjusting for risk, real estate found to be better on yields.
– Gilberto compared 1,200 large REIT’s w/ S&P’s 500 for 1978-1989; found advantage shifted to common stocks
Real Estate Finance and Investments: Lecture 1
Key Definitions and Concepts
Market Value
Most probable price at which a property would sell for in a competitive market as of a specific date, had it been exposed to the market for a reasonable time prior to that date.
--The Appraisal Institute--Informed Buyers/Sellers--No Duress Situation
Most Probable Selling Price
Most likely price at which a property will sell, given the market conditions then prevailing and the financing arrangements available
--Used in determining Transaction Range
Transaction Range
Price range within which a transaction can occur and leave both the buyer and the seller better off than before (win-win situation)
Lower End: Present owner’s investment valueHigher End: Prospective Buyer
SELLER Perspective
Vp
Vs
$490,000
$475,000
Most Probable Selling Price > Minimal acceptable price to Seller
Most Probable Selling Price (market set)
Minimum Acceptable Price
to Seller
BUYER Perspective
Vb
Vp
$510,000
$490,000
Maximum acceptable price to Buyer > Most Probable Selling Price
Maximum Buyer will Pay
Most Probable Selling Price (market set)
Transaction Range
Vb
Vs
$510,000
$475,000
Maximum Buyer will Pay
Minimum Acceptable Price
to Seller
Investment Value
Worth to a present or specific prospective owner; unique to the individual and need not be closely related to most probable selling price
Reflects an investor’s assumptions about the asset’s future ability to produce revenue, about the likely holding period, selling price, tax consequences, available financing, etc.
Real Estate Finance and Investments: Lecture 1
Investment Decision Process
EQUITY INVESTOR
DEBT INVESTOR
Steps in Investment Decision Process
1. Estimate the stream of expected benefits
2. Adjust for timing differences among expected streams of benefits flowing from investment alternatives
3. Adjust for differences in perceived risk associated with the alternatives
4. Rank alternatives to the relative desirability of perceived risk-return combinations they embody
Value of Expected Benefits Stream
Benefits expected to be received in the far distant future add less to a property’s investment value than do those whose anticipated receipt is more imminent.
– Time Value of Money– Expected benefits: Periodic Cash Flow, Future Sale (market
appreciation recognized)
Investment Value = Present Value of Equity Position PLUS Present Value of the Debt Position
Investment Decisions
Purchaser’s investment value > acquisition cost = Increase in Purchaser’s net worth
Market Value > Seller’s investment value = Increase in Seller’s wealth position
Real Estate Finance and Investments: Lecture 1
Investor Objectives and Risk
Investor Objectives and Risk
Minimize Risk and Maximize Return Potential
Investors seek financial return as a reward for committing resources and as compensation for risk
Emotion: Risk takers vs. Risk avoiders
Attitudes Towards Risk
Risk
Return Risk Neutral
Risk Averting
Risk Seeking