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Lecture given to Dutch University students who study democratization in Kurdish region, in the department of
political Science, the University of Amsterdam
11 January 2010
By Dr. Sheth JerjisChairman of the Iraqi Turkmen Human
Rights Research Foundation
Kan. Pelsstraat 566525VA NijmegenThe [email protected]
www.turkmen.nl
“Human Rights Situation in the North of Iraq in the Areas where the Kurdish
Authority Exist”
Iraqi Turkmen Human Right Research Foundation S O İ T M
ContentsDefinitionsIraqi communities in the regionFigures & analysis of population statistics of
the region and of Kerkuk provinceAnalysis of annual increase in population
statistics Historical regions of non-ruling communitiesPopulation number of religious communitiesPopulation statistics of TurkmenNumber of Kurdish population in Iraq
Calculated number of Kurdish populationOrganization and political rights of non-ruling
communitiesTurkmen and administrationTurkmen in so-called disputed regionsNon-ruling communities under Saddam and nowDifferences bet. and treatment of non-ruling
communitiesNon-ruling communities and elections in the northFuture scenarios, the best and the worst
MapsConcerned regionThree ethnic vertical zonesEthnic distribution of non-ruling communitiesBoundaries of Kurdish expansionBoundaries of Kurdish region according to
the Kurdish Regional GovernmentSatellite maps of Kerkuk city - map of 2002
compared with map of 2007Satellite map of Kerkuk city - Building area
after the fall of Ba’ath regime
DefinitionsThe term ‘Non-ruling community’ has been
used instead of the term ‘Minority’The term ‘Kurdish region’ has been used for
Duhok, Erbil and Sulaymaniya provinces with the Safe Haven boundaries
The term ‘Concerned Region’ has been used for the region in question which include seven provinces
Northern ProvincesErbilDuhokNinevehSulaymaniyaKerkuk
Middel ProvinciesSalah al-DinDiyala
Map of Concerned Region [Enlarge]
Ethnic & Religious Communities in North of IraqAlmost all the ethnic and religious groups of Iraq are
found in the regionEthnic communities
Arabs Kurds Turkmen Chaldea-Assyrians are ethno-religious community
Religious communitiesSunni SheaYazidisOther Shea Groups: Shabaks, Kakais, Sarilya and Bacalan
Table 1, Population of Concerned Provinces
MoP= Ministry of Planning MoT = Ministry of Trade † = By UN & Mop & MoT†† = According to UNICEF the voters are 52% of the Iraqi Population ††† = Used during provincial elections January 2009 †††† = P. Eq. is population Equation
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
Column 5
Column 6
Province Census 1987
Census 1997
2003†[1]
2004 MoP [2]
2005 by No. of
voters††
2007 MoP [3]
End 2008, MoT? ††† [4]
2009 by P. Eq. ††††
Nineveh 1,479,430
2,042,852
2,473,727
2,554,270
2,583,425
2,811,000
2,860,655
2,632,727
Salah al-Din
726,138 904,432 1,077,785
1,119,369
1,085,783
1,350,000
1,182,126
1,292,202
Diyala 961,073 1,135,223
1,373,862
1,418,455
1,360,765
1,561,000
1,299,267
1,710,282
Kerkuk 601,219 753,171 839,121 854,470 1,544,809
902,000 1,169,445
1,069,902
Sulaymaniya
951,723 1,362,739
2,159,803
1,715,000
1,849,589
1,893,000
1,597,134
1,693,643
Erbil 770,439 1,095,992
1,845,166
1,392,000
1,673,127
1,542,000
1,438,155
1,371,038
Duhok 293,304 402,970 616,609 472,000 882,546 505,000 916,140 521,950
Total 5,783,326
7,697,379
10,386,073
9,525,564
10,980,044
10,564,000
10,462,922
10,291,744
Census 1987
was the last official census organized by the Iraqi government for all 18 governorates
The population of the Kurdish region accounted for 12% of total Iraqi population
Census 1997 [5]Organized by UN Covered only 15/18 governoratesFigures for the Kurdish region was given by
Kurdish political parties
Table 1
Statistics of 2003 (Column 1)Statistics were collected prior to the fall of
Ba’ath regime on 15.02.2003Under the supervision of the United Nations,
data were collected from the Iraqi government and the Kurdish parties in the Safe Haven
Both the Ministry of Planning & Ministry of Trade participated in collecting the statistics for 15 of the governorates
Statistics where subsequently used in the ‘oil for food programme’
After the fall of Ba’ath regime, almost no
population statistics have been published by the Iraqi Ministry of Trade
Iraqi minister of planning is of Kurdish origin
Table 1
Population estimates based on voters numbers (Column 3)Estimate calculated by number of voters in the Iraqi
general election, December 2005, for example: There was officially 803.301 voters in the Kerkuk province Which make 52% of the total population according to
UNICEF, accordingly The population = 803.301 x 100 / 52 = 1,544,809
Registered voters list’s are compiled by The Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq based on Ration Cards given by the province’s authorities
Table 1
Population estimates in 2009 (Column 6) based on Geometric method for computing population growth rate: The population of a specific province in 2009 can be
calculated and estimated based on previous censuses. Using statistics from the previous census (organized by the Iraqi government in 1987), and applying the geometric method of ‘computing the trend’ of Population: P1 = Po (1+gr)n P1 = Population of a province in 2009 Po = Population a province in 1987 GR = Growth Rate
GR in Iraq according to UNICEF was 3% until 1990 and 2,6% from 1990 to 2007
N = Number of Years
Table 1
The UN published figures in 2003 (column 1) for the population in Kurdish region was greatly large, which increased the percentage of Kurds only in the Kurdish region to 17%.This abnormal figures of UN had increased the share of
Kurdish region from the Iraqi budget from 13% to 17% after the fall of Saddam regime
The population of the Province of Kerkuk is abnormally low in figures published by the Iraqi Ministry of
Planning This is despite significant Kurdish resettlement in the
province In contrary to the figures of population registration office of
Kerkuk province (Table 2)
Table 1
Including Iraqis living in the Diaspora, the total population for all 7 provinces should equate to roughly 10,291,744 in 2009 (column 6). On the contrary, the total population for all 7 provinces, excluding Iraqis living in the Diaspora, is larger in 4 earlier estimates (column 1, 3, 4, 5)
Table 1
Based on the number of voters in the Iraqi General Elections of December 2005, (column 3) the population estimates of the;Kerkuk province were greatly exaggeratedKurdish region are the highest of any estimations made
including the estimation from the MoP of 2007 (column 4)Non-Kurdish provinces were convergent in regard to Nineveh
and lower in regard to Salah al-Din and Diyala provinces compared with statistics of 2004 of Ministry of Planning (column 2)
Total population of the seven governorates is estimated to be around 10,291,744 in 2009 (column 6). This figure is smaller than the results of all the previous censuses and estimations, which were conducted during earlier dates.
Table 2, Population No. of Kerkuk province [6]
Census or estimations Population number
Estimate 1921 92,000
Census 1935 223,634
Census 1947 285,900
Census 1957 388,912
Census 1967 478,098
Census 1977 495,400
Census 1987 601,219
Census 1997 771,800
Ration Card in mid-2005 1,047,875
Ration Card in 2006 1,098,061
Identity Card 4/2007 1,353,700
Identity Card 10/2007 [7] 1,368,860
Identity Card 2008 1,464,372
Voters number 2005 1,544,809
Table 2
The two estimations made on the size of the population in Kerkuk, which were based on the number of Ration Cards issued in 2005 and 2006Are figures from the Iraqi Ministry of TradeShow a considerable increases in the population size
The three estimations based on number of identity cards issued Are figures from the Kerkuk Population Registrations
Directorate, which is administered by the Kurds They show large increases in the population size
The calculated population of Kerkuk province based on the number of voters in the Iraqi General Election of December 2005, which was about 800,000, is larger than the figures produced in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 by both the Ministry of Trade and the Registration Directorate
Table 3, Evaluation of Annual Increase
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4
Regions 1987 – 1997 1997 – 2003 UN
MoP & MoT
1997 – 2007 ministry of planning
1997 – 2005 calculated by
voters list
Shea† 3.4% 3.2% 3.5% 4%
Sunni†† 3.6% 3.3% 3.5% 3.8%
Kerkuk 2.5% 1.9% 2% 13.1%
Kurdish† 4.2% 10.3% 3.8% 6.7%
Total 3.5% 4.1% 3.5% 4.6%
† = Shea region includes the 9 southern provinces† † = Sunni region includes the five provinces where the Sunnis are the majority † † † = Kurdish region is the KRG three provinces
Table 3
This table indicates the population growth annually. The growth is expressed in percentages. Below is an example of how these are calculated.A figure for the Census in 1997 – A figure for the
Census in 1987 = population increase in 10 yearsPopulation increase x 100 / Figure of census
1987 = percentage of increasePercentage of increase / number of years bet. 2
censuses or estimations = Percentage of annual increase
Table 3
Census 1987 and 1997 (column 1)The growth in population of both the Shea and Sunni
regions during this 10 year period, are relatively comparable to both one another and to the regional average
Population of Kurdish region increased 0.7% above the average despite the fact that: The large number of Anfal victims, which the western
library puts it into 200,000. Tens of thousands of Kurds have fled Iraq and established
in Europe, in order to: Improve their economical status Escape
The economical embargo in Iraq The civil war between two Kurdish parties
Table 3
More than 20 thousand victims of the civil war between the two main Kurdish parties abroad
The Kerkuk province has the lowest rate of growth. This can be attributed to several factors including; forced deportation, fleeing of non –Arabic individuals
Table 3
Census 1997 and estimation of 2003 by UN (column 2)Population size of both the Shia and Sunni regions grew
at slightly below average rate The figures estimated that the Kerkuk population had
further decreased, despite the fact it was a quiet period of deportation.
Population of Kurdish region Hugely enlarged Equal three fold of increase in Sunni and Shea regions The abnormal increase in population of Kurdish region
between the censuses of 1997 and the estimations of the UN of 2003, can not be attributed to the influence of any contributing factor or event.
Table 3
Census 1997 and calculation of population in 2005 by voters numbers (column 4)Slightly increase in Shea and Sunni regions.Population of Kurdish region increased more than
one and half fold as much as of Shia and Sunni regions
Kerkuk population hugely increased, which clearly demonstrates the demographical change in the province
The increases in population figures of all regions during this period indicates that voters registration lists were generally exaggerated
Three zones in the North [Enlarge] Other groups in Kurdish region
Non-ruling
communities in
Kurdish region
According to the nature of population, North of
Iraq can be divided in to three vertical Zones, Eastern Zone which is
KRG region Mainly Kurdish
Middle Zone Non-ruling community’s zone Highly mixed Cities of non-ruling communities: Sinjar – Rashidiya -
Telafer – Telkeyf – Hamdaniya – Shaykhan Eski Kelek – Erbil – Kus Tepe – Altun Kopru – Kerkuk – Daquq – Tuz Khurmatu – Kifri – Kara Tepe – Mendeli – Kiz Rabat – Khanaqin - Badra
Western Zone
Mainly Arabic Cities: Mosul – Shirgat – Beiji – Tikrit - Samarra
Non-Kurdish communities in Kurdish regionDuhok Province
Yazidi, Chaldea-Assyrians and ShabaksErbil Province
Turkmen in Erbil city Chaldea-Assyrians
Ain Kawa region Kush Tepe sub-district
Sulaymaniya Province Turkmen and Arabs in Kifri
Map of Ethnic Distribution [Enlarge]
Historical Regions of non-ruling communities Subdivision Shea groups
The Shabaks are found in many villages in west, north and east of Mosul province, for example, Baashiqa, Wardak, Toprak Ziyaret, Telafer....
The Bajalan are also present in many Shabak villages in the east of Mosul, for example, Yarimca, Dilyara, Orta Kharab...
The Kakais or Sariliye are found In several villages on the banks of the Great Zab Telafer South of Kerkuk, mainly Daquq region
Yazidi regions
Mosul Province Sinjar and Shaykhan districts are well known Yazidis
Districts located in the west and east of the province In different sub-districts and villages of Nineveh plain
with Chaldea-Assyrians and ShabaksDuhok Province, mainly in the following regions
Zakho Summel Baadra
Chaldea-Assyrians
Mosul province They can be found in Mosul city, in large numbers Telkif, Batnaya, Hamdaniya, Bartalla are also well
known Chaldea-Assyrian regionsDuhok province
They are found in Duhok city, again in large numbers They also maintain a presence in many villages
throughout the province Tens of Chaldea-Assyrian villages in Duhok province
were almost completely Kurdified in over the past forty years
Erbil province
Large Ayn Kawa neighbourhood in Erbil city and the sub-district Kush Tepe are Chaldea-Assyrian
Kerkuk province Mainly in New Kerkuk and Almas neighbourhoods
Turkmen
In Mosul province Mosul
Mosul city Several villages, the largest of which are Sallamiya,
Rashidiya and Kara KoyunluTelafer District is a well know and heavily populated
Turkmen district Iyadiya and Mahlabiya sub-districts and multiple local
villagesErbil City
Historically a Turkmen city which has been exposed to heavy Kurdish immigration and subsequently has become their capital. 1/3 of the population today are Turkmen
Kerkuk Province
Kerkuk city is well known Turkmen city, despite long peroid of intensive Arabification and Kurdification processes, the Turkmen are still constituting a considerable part of population
Many Turkmen sub-districts and villages are found in the south, west and north of the province. Altun Kopri sub-disrict in the north Dibis region in the north west In the west: Yaychi, Kumbetler..... In the south: Daquq district, Taze Khurmatu and
Leylan sub-districts.....
Salah al-Din province
Tuz Khurmatu is one of the largest Iraqi districts Yengice sub-district
Bayat region in the south of Tuz Khurmatu includes large sub-districts of: Bastamli Emirli Sulayman beg, which has become mainly Arabified
Diyala Province
Includes several large districts and sub-districts Kifri and Khanaqin,
Exposed to continuous Kurdification, The Turkmen population today constitutes around
20% of these cities population Kara Tepe sub-district Kizrabat sub-district Mandali
Mandali had an estimated population of nearly 70 thousand in the 1970’s
Today population is estimated to be around 20 thousand
Qazzaniya Baladruz Adana Koy
Baghdad There is an estimated three hundred thousand Turkmen
living in Baghdad, according to some Turkmen sources. Kut province
Badra District Arabified Turkmen Tribes, such as, the well known
Karaguli tribe, have spread to the south of Baghdad and Kut provinces, and constitute a population of tens of thousands
The number of Turkmen deported to the south by the Ba’ath regime in not known
Boundaries of Kurdish Expansion [Enlarge]
KRG’s Boundary of Kurdish Region [Enlarge]
Figures of census 1947 Chaldea-Assyrians 149,656 3.1% Yazidis 32,437
0.67% Shabaks were considered with ‘others’
UN, MoP & MoT – 2003 Chaldea-Assyrians 334,488 1.2% Yazidis 281,984 1% Shabaks were considered with ‘others’
Shabaks – accord. unofficial sources is 2 – 4,00,000
Iraqi Turkmen Human Right Research Foundation S O İ T M
Population of Religious Communities
Population Statistics of TurkmenAll census presents 2%, including early
results of census 1957In the final results, which included the
amended results of the 1957 census: (The last in which the Turkmen were
permitted to register – counted 567,000 Turkmen (9% of the population) among Iraq’s population of 6,300,000) †
This census counted 819,000 Kurds which makes 13% of the population †† = the report number 735 of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Size of Kurdish PopulationThe census of 1957 819,000 (13%)CJ Edmonds, 17-20%Longrigg 1,250,000 / 8,500,000 14.7%
CIA 15-20%WJ Elphinston 13%Robert Zeidner 12%Martin J. Dent 13%George L. Harris, 17%Other sources 20% & 23%- KRG region receives 17% of the total Iraqi Budget- Percentage of the Kurdish members in the Iraqi Parliament is 20%
Calculated Number of Kurdish Population in IraqNo census, figures from 1997 onwards are only
estimations Total Iraqi Population was 12,000,497 in 1977Applying the equation P0=P1 (1+gr)NTotal Iraqi Population in 2009 is estimated at 28,700,073
The official number today has been exaggerated to > 32,000,000
Kurds possibly represent 17% of the populationThe Kurdish population in 2009 should therefore be
around 4,879,012While official KRG numbers estimate it around 4,5 million
Estimated number of Kurds out of KRG population should be around 2 million
Organization and Political Rights of Non-ruling CommunitiesJudit Neurink is a well known Dutch journalist
who has frequently visited the Kurdish region In her article titled: “A true copy of the Saddam
regime” she comments that: The Kurdish authorities are similar to Saddam’s regime The Political parties control all the components of the
society, Only members of certain Kurdish political parties are
appointed to the government The government has one million staff members, who
work for `the ruling parties and receive additional privileges.
The power of the parties is observable in all civil and political domains
Turkmen organizations in Erbil from 1991 to
2005The Turkmen Political parties were:
ITF Turkmeneli Party Turkmen national party Independent party
The Turkmen civil society organizations were: Turkmen House Turkmen Brotherhood cultural club
Local TV and RadioDispensaryPrint house Turkmeneli newspaperInformation officeDirectorate of educationTurkmen Union and Syndicate13 Turkmen schoolsTurkmen department - Institution for Teachers
The number of Turkmen run organisational buildings was 24
Eradication of Turkmen organizations
All Turkmen buildings were confiscated in April 2005 Name of the Turkmeneli Television and Radio were
changed and have in turn been used as a propaganda instruments by the Kurdish authorities.
The Turkmeneli newspaper has been discontinued Turkmeneli print house has been closed, followed by the
sale of all content The dispensary has been closed, and again the contents
were sold. Turkmen Institution for Teachers was closed Buildings were given to Pro-Kurdish Turkmen parties &
orgs
Only one Turkmen party remains active
It is situated in one small building Its activities are severely limited It is significantly infiltrated by the Kurdish
authorities It is not allowed to pursue political, social and
cultural activities, outside of their own building. Governmental buildings cannot be rented. logistical supporters of Turkmen organizations are
exposed to intimidation, exploitation and violence
Pro-Kurdish Turkmen parties and orgs were
instituted by Kurdish parties They receive their salaries from the Kurdish
authorities They have almost no activities
Turkmen Schoolsadministered by non-expert Kurdish staff curricular is devised by Kurdish specialistsKurdish language is imposed on students from
an early ageMainly Kurdish history is studied
The Syllabus is monitored by Kurdish
supervisorsKurdish directors are appointed to administer
these schoolsThe content of the curricular, the explanatory
drawings, and the activities all reflect the Kurdish heritage and culture
The educational quality has steadily worsened, and consequently, registration is currently significantly decreased
Restrictions on other rights
The Turkmen publications, other than 2 or 3 pro-Kurdish Turkmen publications, are not allowed to be sold in shops or put in the libraries
Cafés and public houses can not operate Turkmen TV and radio keep the Turkmen publications
Election campaigns 2005 Turkmen parties were only allowed to hang their
posters and flags outside their own buildings
Turkmen and AdministrationThere are two Turkmen districts in Kurdish
regionErbil cityKifri district
Erbil city
In the early 20th century almost 90% of population of Erbil city was Turkmen
Today, at least 1/3 of the city are Turkmen City council members are divided solely between two
Kurdish partiesKifri district
Historically a Turkmen region In the 1950s the Turkmen represented a majority of the
population Now only 20% of the population are Turkmen
There is no Turkmen in district council Of 17 directors in governmental offices there is only 1
Turkmen representative
Turkmen in so-called Disputed RegionsKerkuk Province
There has been a policy of Kurdification of the administration in Kerkuk. The Governor, Mayor, Police chief and Directors of
most of the Governmental offices and Police systems are Kurdish
Security system is almost completely Kurdified as well
Kerkuk population was
830,000 at the day of the 2003 occupation (table 1) By 2008 its was estimated to be around 1,400,000
(table 2) Number of voters was 803,000 in general elections
of December 2005 Propriety Claim commission
Total complaint cases are 36,000 Almost 80% are from the Turkmen people Only 3200 of these cases were completed
Satellite maps of Kerkuk city - map of 2002
compared with map of
2007
Satellite map of Kerkuk city – the building area after increased
about 20 Km sq. between 2003 and 2007
The area was built after occupation the
fall of Ba’ath regime
Khanaqin
This is another Historical Turkmen city Now at least 15% of the population are Turkmen
There were 3 Turkmen in the district council Unbearable intimidation forced them to join
Kurdish groups
21 directors in Governmental offices 18 are from Kurdish parties 3 from Arab and Turkmen parties combined
Differences bet. and treatment of non-ruling communitiesPopulation sizeReligious and ethnicAll exposed to suppression in the northThe religious minorities were also exposed to
attacks by Sunni extremists
Non-ruling communities under Saddam and NowIn Ba’ath period
Suppression was mainly ideological and ethnically based There was a single nationalist party, which mainly
excluded non-ruling communities Demographical changes
Arabification of minority regions Demolition of villages
Political executions All non-Ba’ath communities were exposed to
violations of their human rights Due to armed rebellion of Kurdish groups, many
Kurdish regions were exposed to atrocities
Related to the Turkmen
Enforced demographical modifications, particularly in Kerkuk province, as a result of; Resettlement of Arabs in Turkmen regions Demolition of Turkmen regions in Kerkuk, Mosul,
Diyala Political executions
Sectarian, large number Turkmen Shea were exposed to execution
National, execution of politicians and activists (Parties and Organisations)
Post Ba’ath Period
Suppression is ethnical and religious It includes seizing of lands
Demographical changes as a result of the resettlement of Kurdish communities
Intimidations, arrests, killings and assassinations Marginalisation in administration. Kurdish mainatin
political and civil dominanceExposure to terrorist attacks (Unknown
origin)Institution of pro-Kurdish Turkmen political
parties and civil society orgs
Non-Ruling Communities and Elections in the NorthFactors which render elections totally
impartialPoliticized administration
Governmental Security Militia
Ruling Kurdish authorities dominate and claim the lands of non-ruling communities
Absence of a democratic cultureInexperienced, unqualified and politicized
election and governmental administration
As it is mentioned
Kurdish domination of administration after election in Erbil Kifri Khanaqin Kerkuk
All of which are not historically or statistically (population size) Kurdish areas
Future Scenarios, the Best and the WorstMajor disagreements in the North are:
Power of the federal authorities Kurdish authorities functioning as an independent region
which specifically violates the Iraqi constitution So-called disputed areas
Historically non-Kurdish regions Most of these regions were populated mainly by non-
Kurds before the occupation and in other regions the Kurds increased in later decades
The large underground wealth is dominated and controlled by Kurdish population
The presence of Peshmerga militiaAmendment of the constitution
Scenario IThe continuation of the present situation will
maintain:The current instabilityThe suppression of non-ruling communitiesAnd weaken the Iraqi state
Scenario IIWithdrawal of occupation troops without
solving major disagreements with the:Inflexible attitudes of Kurdish political parties
The war will be unavoidable
Scenario IIIBargain on the Lands will be
At the expense of the non-ruling communitiesBargain on the underground wealth will
Leave a weak Iraqi stateRule out the enduring national and regional
stability
ConclusionsThe so-called Disputed region is vast region inhabited by
millions of people Iraqi non-ruling communities are large population inhabit mainly
the so-called disputed regionsThe United Nations authorities accepted the abnormally
exaggerated population figures of Kurdish political parties for ‘Food for Ration’ program. These figures are still in use.
The population size of the Iraqi Turkmen has constantly underestimated
The population statistics of ministry of Planning is higher than that of ministry of Trade
Kerkuk province has exposed to massive demographical changes after occupation
The policy of Kurdish political parties is expansionist policy which suppress the non-Kurdish communities
The Kurdish political parties dictate their terms and the involved powers and international community do not move a finger
Discussion
Discussion
Iraqi Turkmen Human Right Research Foundation S O İ T M