Democratization

HartantoRespati University of

Yogyakarta

Three Waves of Democracy

• In his book The Third Wave, Samuel Huntington argues that there have been three waves of democratization in modern history.

Samuel P. Huntington

The Three Waves: When?

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1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Third Wave ofDemocratization (1974-?)

First, Long Wave ofDemocratization (1828-1926)

First Reverse Wave (1922-1942)

Second, Short Wave ofDemocratization(1943-1962)

Second ReverseWave (1958-1975)

Huntington’s Definition of Democracy

• Huntington offers two definitions of democracy that apply to different periods of time.

• Definition 1 • -Applies to 19th Century.

–50% of adult males can vote. –There is an executive that either

maintains majority support in an elected parliament, or is chosen in periodic popular elections.

Huntington’s Definition of Democracy

• Definition 2 • - Applies to 20th Century.

–Virtually all adults can vote.–Leaders are selected through fair,

honest and periodic elections.

The First Wave: Why?

• Occurred mostly in Northern Europe and white settler countries. The causes are:

1. Economic Factors:– First countries to experience economic

development, industrialization and urbanization.– Emergence of middle class.– Decrease in economic inequality.

The First Wave: Why?

2. Historical events and intellectual developments:

– French Revolution.– American Revolution.– John Locke.– Montesquieu.– John Stuart Mill.

The First Wave: Why?

3. Religious Factors– Over 75% of the countries that democratized in

the first wave had majority Protestant populations.

4. World War One– Democratic countries defeated two large

authoritarian empires, the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires.

– This produced snowballing, or a demonstration effect, that encouraged the development of democracy.

The Second Wave: Why?

• The second wave is largely related to WW2.

1. Imposition of Democracy.– Allied powers imposed democracy on certain

defeated countries, such as Japan and Germany.

2. Snowballing (demonstration) effect.– Some countries independently chose to be

democratic.

The Second Wave: Why?

3. Decolonization.– Countries that had a number of colonies

(e.g. Britain, France, Holland and Portugal) were severely weakened after WW2.

– The United States pressured these countries to give up their colonies.

– Many former colonies became independent and democratic.

The Third Wave: Why?

• Some 30 countries became democratic.

1. Legitimacy.– Democratic ideas became widely accepted.– Authoritarian regimes could not solve economic

problems as efficiently as democratic countries.

2. Economic Growth.– Higher standards of living and education

contributed to the expansion of the urban middle class.

The Third Wave: Why?

3. Change in the Catholic church.– The Catholic church, which used to be a

supporter of authoritarian regimes, changed its doctrine and practice and supported democracy.

4. Foreign Policy.– Expansion of the EU.– Promotion of democracy and human rights by

the United States.– Fall of the Soviet Union.

The Third Wave: Why?

5. Snowball (or demonstration effect).– Early third wave transitions received

great media attention, which later stimulated transitions in other countries.

Democratic Transition

• Democratic transition requires three components.

1. The end of an authoritarian regime.

2. The installation of a new democratic regime (through elections).

3. The consolidation of this democratic regime.

Democratic Transition A/a-d-D

A/a-d-DA = stable, long-lasting authoritarian regime.

D = stable, long-lasting democratic regime.

a = unstable, short-lived authoritarian regime.

d = unstable, short-lived democratic regime.

Stable Authoritarianism

Unstable Democracy

Stable Democracy

Unstable Authoritarianism

Time

Processes of Democratization

• Huntington identifies three different types of democratization process.1. Democratic transformation.

– takes place when powerholders take the lead in bringing about democracy.

2. Democratic replacement.– takes place when opposition groups take the lead in

bringing about democracy. Old authoritarian regime is overthrown.

3. Democratic transplacement. – takes place when there is joint action by the

government and opposition groups to promote democratization.

Prospects for Democratic Consolidation

• The following conditions facilitate democratic consolidation.

1. Previous experience of democracy.2. Relatively high GNP per capita.3. Favorable external environment. 4. Democratic transition at an earlier, rather than later,

stage in the third wave.5. Democratization via transplacement, rather than

transformation or replacement.

• The following slides discuss each of these conditions more in detail.

1. Previous Democratic Experience

• Huntington argues that:– Some experience of democracy is better

than none. – Longer experience of democracy is better

than shorter experience.– The more recent the democratic

experience, the better.

Chart: Years of Democratic Experience

More than 20 years Uruguay, The Philippines, India, Turkey, Chile

10-19 years Greece, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Korea, Pakistan, Brazil

1-9 years Argentina, Honduras, Guatemala, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Grenada, Nigeria

Less than one year Spain, Portugal, El Salvador, Poland, Romania, East Germany, Bulgaria, Nicaragua, Sudan, Mongolia

2. Level of Economic Development

• The higher level of economic development, the greater the likelihood of stable democracy.

• Economically developed countries have:– More industrialized economies.– More modern economies.– More complex societies.– Better educated populations.

• These factors all help consolidate democracy.

Chart: Democracy and GNP per capita

Higher than $5, 000

Spain, East Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria

$2, 000 – $4, 999 Greece, Portugal, Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, Poland, Romania, Korea

$1, 000 – $1, 999 Ecuador, Peru, Turkey, Grenada, Chile

$500 – $999 Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Bolivia, The Philippines

Less than $500 India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sudan

3. The External Environment

• A foreign country can have a positive influence on democratic consolidation, if the relevant foreign government:– is itself democratic.– promotes democracy in other countries.– has close relations with the third wave country in

question.– is able to exercise influence in the third wave

country in question.

Chart: External Environment and Democracy

Extremely favorable

East Germany, Spain, Portugal, Greece

Quite Favorable

Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Turkey, The Philippines, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Grenada

Favorable Peru, Ecuador, Uruguay, Korea, Chile

Unfavorable Argentina, Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sudan, Romania, Bulgaria, Mongolia

4. The Timing of the Democratic Transition

• Early = Indigenous– Earlier democratizations are more likely to be the

result of indigenous causes, rather than a snowball effect.

• Indigenous = Consolidation– Democratic transitions caused by indigenous

factors are more likely to lead to consolidated democracies.

• Therefore, Early = Consolidation– The earlier a country democratizes within the third

wave, the more likely it is to become a consolidated democracy.

First Dates of Elections and Democracy

Before 1980 Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ecuador, India, Nigeria,

1980 – 1983 Peru, Argentina, Bolivia, Honduras, Turkey

1984 – 1987 Uruguay, Brazil, The Philippines, El Salvador, Guatemala, Korea, Grenada, Sudan

1988 – 1990 Pakistan, Poland, Hungary, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Chile

Possible after 1990

Mexico, Soviet Union, South Africa, Taiwan, Nepal, Panama

5. Process of Democratic Transition

• Huntington identified three processes of democratic transition; transformation, replacement and transplacement.

• Huntington argues:1. There is more chance of a successful democratic

consolidation if elites from the previous non-democratic regime are satisfied.

2. There is less chance of democratic consolidation if the transition involved violence.

• If the above statements are true, it follows that transplacement is most likely to lead to consolidated democracy.

Chart: Transition Process and Democracy

  Type of Old Regime

Transition Process

One party Personal Military Racial Oligarchy

Transplacement Poland CzechoslovakiaNicaragua Mongolia

(Nepal) UruguayBolivia HondurasEl SalvadorKorea

(South Africa)

Transformation HungaryBulgaria(Taiwan)(USSR)(Taiwan)

Spain India Chile

Turkey BrazilPeru GuatemalaEcuadorNigeriaPakistan Sudan

 

Replacement East Germany PortugalThe PhilippinesRomania

Greece Argentina

 

Chart: Overall Prospects for Democracy

Most Favorable Greece, Portugal, Spain, East Germany, Uruguay, Turkey

Less Favorable but Supportive

Czechoslovakia, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru, Honduras, India, Argentina, Brazil, The Philippines, Poland, Hungary, (Korea)

Less Favorable Guatemala, Grenada, Nigeria, El Salavador, Pakistan, Nicaragua, Bulgaria, Mongolia

Especially Unfavorable

Sudan, Romania

Chart: Freedom Classification by Freedom House (2003)

Free Greece, Portugal, Spain, East Germany, Uruguay, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Brazil, The Philippines, India, Poland, Hungary, Grenada, Bulgaria, El Salvador, Mongolia, Romania, Korea

Partly Free Turkey, Ecuador, Honduras, Argentina, Guatemala, Nigeria, Nicaragua

Not Free Pakistan, Sudan

http://www.freedomhouse.org

Spreading democracies or dim-ocracies in the Middle East?

Image: www.caglecartoons.com

Middle East

• Geographic area

• Not cultural, ethnic, linguistic, or religious

• Not all Arab countries

The Arab World…(based on Arab League Membership)

Middle East Political LandscapeCountry Indicators for Foreign Policy

CountryIndex 2000

Democracy Civil, Political Rights

Press Freedom

Corruption

Jordan 7 6 6 4

Egypt 8 8 7 7

Saudi Arabia

9 9 9 n/a

Kuwait 8 6 5 n/a

Turkey 3 6 6 5

Iraq 9 9 9 n/a

Algeria 7 8 8 n/a

Morocco 8 5 6 5

Columbia 3 6 6 7

Key: 1=Good 9=Poor; Source: http:// www.carleton.ca/cifp/

Authoritarian Middle Eastern Regimes

• There are more authoritarian regimes in the ME than anywhere else

• Repression, exclusion of political participation

• ‘insular’/resist globaliz’n• Large youth population• →Hopelessness,

extremism

April 2002: 5,000 demonstrate outside Al-Azhar mosque; Source: Al-Ahram

What encourages democratization?

Internal Factors that Encourage Democratization…

• National unity– ‘togetherness’• Political leadership-- personalities• Historical legacy-- colonialism• Political culture– people view power• Ethnic harmony-- cooperation• Strong political parties-- brokerage• Political institutions—legisl; judiciary• Socioeconomic development– middle class• Relationship among classes–bourgeoisie• National security– no external threat

Map of Saudi Arabia

• International organizations– UN declaration of human rights– International law; ICC

• State pressure– EU; foreign aid

• Economic Factors– MNCs, entrepreneurs– Globalization

• Waves of democracy– Huntington: “snowballing”

External Factors thatEncourage Democratization…

George W. Bush on November 6th 2003 at the National Endowment for

Democracy “As long as the Middle East

remains a place where freedom does not flourish, it will remain a place of stagnation, resentment, and violence, ready for export…. The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution.”

What is the Future of the Political Landscape in the Middle East?

Domino Democratization in the Middle East

Unleashing political darkness: dim-ocracy

US administrationprofesses

Skeptics

THANK YOU