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Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp. 71-95. Key Terms: demand curve substitutes complements demographic effects supply curve equilibrium price excess supply excess demand 1 . The Law of Supply and Demand In competitive market economies actual prices tend to be the equilibrium prices, at which demand equals supply. Price the market supply curve E at point E P* Demand = Supply the market demand curve 0 Q* Quantity of good X P*: the equilibrium price(均衡価格) Q*: the equilibrium quantity (均衡数量) Price The price of a good or service is what must be given in exchange for the good. Price measures scarcity. 1

Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

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Page 1: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price

Stiglitz: pp. 71-95.

Key Terms: ・ demand curve ・substitutes ・complements ・demographic effects ・ supply curve ・equilibrium price ・excess supply ・excess demand

1 . The Law of Supply and Demand In competitive market economies actual prices tend to be the equilibrium prices, at which demand equals supply. Price the market supply curve E at point E

P* Demand = Supply the market demand curve 0 Q* Quantity of good X P*: the equilibrium price(均衡価格) Q*: the equilibrium quantity (均衡数量) Price The price of a good or service is what must be given in exchange for the good. Price measures scarcity.

1

Page 2: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

2. Market Demand 1. What is the Demand Curve?

The market demand curve gives the total quantity of the good or service demanded at each price. P As P decreases, the movement takes place along (or, on) the demand curve. the market demand 0 Good X the Market of good X That is, we say that as the price of good X falls, the quantity of good X demanded increases. Note that there are no changes in other factors other than a change in the price (per unit) of good X. When the price of good rises, a movement on the demand curve occurs. That is, the quantity of good demanded decreases.

2. Factors shift market demand curves. A Change in 1. income 2. the price of substitute 3. the price of a complement 4. the composition of the population 5. tastes 6. information 7. the availability of credit 8. expectations

3. Demand curve vs. quantity of good X demanded ・ The demand curve (of good X) means the whole demand curve. ・ The quantity of good X demanded means a point on the demand curve.

4. The demand curve shifts to the right or left as changes in any of the items in 2. The demand for good X increases. This is the same as saying that the demand curve shifts to the right.

2

Page 3: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

The demand for good X increases (or rises). P

D1

0 The demand for good X decreases. This is the sameshifts to the left.

P

0

3

D0

Good X/time

as saying that the demand curve

D0

D2

Good X/time

Page 4: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

3. Market Supply 1. What is the Supply Curve?

The market supply of a good is simply the total quantity of that all the firms in the economy are willing to supply at a give price.

2. Factors shift market supply curves. A Change in 1. the prices of inputs, 2. technology 3. the natural environment 4. the availability of credit 5. expectations

Changes in these factors will shift the supply curve either to the right or left. The supply of good X increases. This is the same as saying that the supply curve shifts to the right. The supply of good X decreases. This is the same as saying that to the left.

0 Good X

S2 S

S0

P

0 Good X

4

the supplu curve shifts

/time

S1

0

/time

Page 5: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

Equilibrium: Demand = Supply at P* Excess demand: Demand>Supply at P1 Excess Supply: Demand<Supply at P0 Price the market supply curve A B E at point E

P* Demand = Supply C D the market demand curve

P0

P1

0 Q* Quantity of good X At the price of P0 the quantity supplied at B exceeds the quantity demanded at A. This means the excess supply exists. Hence, there is a tendency for the price to decrease from P0 to P*. On the other hand, at the price of P1, the quantity demanded at D exceeds the quantity supplied at C. Thus, the price tends to rise from P1 to P* until the price becomes P* at point E, where the demand equals the supply. At the price P* and Q* in equilibrium, unless either the demand or supply curve (or both curves) shifts, there will be no changes for P* and Q*. The Important Note: Prices In competitive markets, prices are determined by the law of supply and demand. Shifts in the demand and supply curves lead to changes in the equilibrium price. Similar principles apply to the labor and capital markets. The price for labor is the wage, and the price for capital is the interest rate.

5

Page 6: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 5 Using Demand and Supply

Stiglitz: pp. 96-121

Key Terms: ・ price elasticity of demand ・infinite elasticity ・zero elasticity ・ price elasticity of supply ・market clearing ・sticky prices ・ price ceilings ・price floors 1. Price Elasticity Price elasticity measures responsiveness in quantity (either demanded or supplied) due to one percent change in price. 1-1 Price elasticity of demand (for good X, e.g., apples, oranges or cars) The price elasticity of demand is defined as the percentage change in the quantity demanded divided by the percentage change in price. Percentage change in quantity demanded Price elasticity of demand = Percentage change in price Figure 1

Price/

Market demand for ice cream

D

0

F E

unit

2.10 2.00

90 100

6

Good X

Page 7: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

In figure 1, suppose we draw the market demand curve of ice cream. Note that we take the price of ice cream on the Y-axis and the quantity of ice cream demanded per period on the X-axis. As you know, as the price falls from $2.10 per unit to $2.00, the quantity of ice cream demanded increases from 90 to 100. Then, we can calculate the price elasticity of demand for ice cream in the market as, % changes in the quantity demanded The price elasticity of demand for ice cream = % changes in the price Let ε stands for the price elasticity of demand so that we can define it as,1

PP

XX

XP

PX

inPinX

=⋅∂∂

=∆∆

=%%ε , ….. (1)

The above definition is used when changes in price is infinitely small. Therefore, it is used to measure the price elasticity of demand at a point on the demand curve. However, our example in Figure 1 is not at a point on the demand curve but the example shows the range from points from E to F. In this case, we use, as an approximation, an arc price elasticity of demand, defined as follows:

16.215789.2

05.210.0

9510

200.210.2

10.0210090

10

2

2

10

10

−≈−=

=

+

+

=

+

+

=

PPP

XXX

arc ε ….. (2)

The above value of -2.16 means that when the price of ice cream increases by

1 This price elasticity is called “own price elasticity of demand” in a strict sense. The

price elasticity of equation (1) is expressed also as PX

lnln∂∂

=ε .

7

Page 8: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

one percent, the quantity of ice cream demanded decreases by 2.16 percent. Note that the minus sign shows the relationship between the price and the quantity of good X (here, ice cream) demanded is inverse. This is the law of demand. 1-2 Various values of the price elasticity of demand Some examples of the value of the price elasticity of demand are as follows: Figure 2 Figure 3 0=ε ∞=ε P P 0 Good X 0 Good Y a vertical demand curve a horizontal demand curve Figure 4 P 0<<∞− ε 0 Good Z In the case of figure 4, the values of price elasticity are grouped into three such as, (1) 01 <<− ε : inelastic (2) 1−=ε : unitary, and (3) 1−<ε : elastic.

8

Page 9: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

1-3 Why is the price elasticity important? What kind of information can we get by knowing the values of price elasticity of demand for various goods and services? Now, suppose that the manager in a store is considering to raise the price of good sold in the store and he (or she) know the price elasticity of demand for the good. Let say the price elasticity of demand for the good is -2.0. What will happen to the revenues to the store after raising the price of good? Can the store increase the revenue? Answer 1: No. It reduces the total revenue to the store. WHY? Note that the price elasticity if the measure of changes in consumption of good in response to changes in the price. As said, the price elasticity is -2.0, it means when the price increases by one percent, the consumption (that is, the quantity of the good demanded) decreases by 2 percent. Total Revenue = P times X = >(P increases by 1%) x (X decreases by 2%) What will be the total revenue? Of course, it decreases. Answer 2: By using some mathematics, we have, Total Revenue = XP×

XPTR logloglog +=

XdPdTRd logloglog +=

ε+=+= 1loglog1

loglog

PdXd

PdTRd , where

PdXd

loglog

=ε .

Since ε is always negative except for the cases of 0 and ∞ , we can write as follows:

9

Page 10: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

ε−= 1loglog

PdTRd . ….. (3)

Then, in equation (3), if the value of the price elasticity is -2.0, we have:

01211loglog

<−=−=−= εPd

TRd .

This means that when the price of the good increases by 1 percent, the total revenue decreases by 1 percent. So, if we want to simply know the total revenue increase or decrease, all we have to know the value of the price elasticity of demand. Exercise 1: Indicate if the total revenue in a market as a whole increases, decreases or does not change, when the price of the product increases by 2%? 1) 10 −>> ε : 2) 1−=ε : 3) 1−<ε Exercise 2: Find the price elasticity of demand at point E. Figure 5 P

E A linear market demand curve

0 Good X 10

5

10

20

10

Page 11: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

2 Price elasticity of Supply The price elasticity of supply is defined as the percentage change in quantity supplied divided by the percentage change in price. Percentage change in quantity supplied Price elasticity of supply = Percentage change in price Figure 6 Market supply of ice cream D 0

E F

Good X

Price/ unit

2.10 2.00

80 100 2-1 Arc-price elasticity of supply

4.44444.4

05.210.0

9020

200.210.2

10.0210080

20

2

2

10

10

≈==

+

+

=

+

+

=

PPP

XXX

earc

That is, when the price of good X increases by 1%, the quantity of good X supplied increases by 4.4%.

11

Page 12: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

In the case of the price elasticity of supply (of goods and services), the value is positive. Therefore, the relationship between the price and quantity supplied is positive, as P rises, X supplied increases. 2-2 the (point) price elasticity of supply

PP

XX

XP

PX

inPinXe

=⋅∂∂

=∆∆

=%%

Figure 7 P E A linear market supply curve 5

8

0 the price elasticity of supply at p

18

531

%%

=⋅∂∂

=∆∆

=XP

PX

inPinXe

As the price increases by 1%, th

Good X 10

oint E is:

3.1333.168

0≈==

e quantity of good X supplied increases by 1.3%.

12

Page 13: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

3 Short and long run supply curves In economics, we often separate our analysis into two ways such as a short run and a long run. The meanings of those are as follows: (1) In the short run: The time is not long enough for firms to adjust their production processes by changing, say, sizes of capital in the firms and technology. In the technical way, there are at least one or more fixed factors of production. (2) In the long run: (2-1) the time is long enough for firms to adjust their production processes by adjusting factors of productions, but not technology of productions. (2-2) all changes, including all factors of production as well as technologies in the production. Therefore, when we consider the demand curve of a typical market in the short and long runs, the slope of their corresponding supply curves will differ. That is, in the long run, since all factors of production and technology changes (that means, firms can find more efficient ways to produce their goods and services at lower costs), the supply curve will be flatter (or technically, more elastic) that the short-run supply curve. Figure 8 P Short-run S Long-run S 0 Good X

13

Page 14: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

4 Price Ceiling and Price Floor (in the short run) In a competitive product market (that means, all consumers and producers are freely joining the market with no costs) with no government interventions, the price of product per unit is determined by the demand and supply curves such as, Figure 9 In Figure 9, the deE, we say D=S. Thprice and the equiindicate the deman In fact, wpoint in the societythe market welfare

(1) The markefor good p

(2) The markeproduce ou

(3) At any ouleast cost more.

S

E

D

P

P0

0 X0

mand curve intersects the supply curve at point E. The resulting price, P0, and the quantity, X0, are calledlibrium quantity of good X. Note, we use the wordd equals the supply.

e economist consider the equilibrium point E is the since the welfare in the market is maximized. How d is maximized.

t demand curve shows the maximum willingness to er unit. t supply curve shows the least cost (that is, in a most tput at different levels of output. tput level below X0 the consumer’s willingness to pof production in the market. That is, there will be

14

Good X

erefore, at point the equilibrium equilibrium to

most preferable o we know that

pay in exchange

efficient way) to

ay exceeds the gain to produce

Page 15: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

(4) At any output level above X0, the cost of production in the market (or the cost to supply the good to the market) exceeds the willingness to pay by consumers in the market. That is, the good is too expensive or costly to meet the consumer’s demand.

(5) Hence, at point E, the willingness by consumers in the market as a whole is exactly equal to the least cost to produce the good per unit. Therefore, there will be no loss at all. By the way, the consumer’s willingness pay is in fact the maximum price that the consumers can pay or the monetary evaluation of good per unit.

4-1 Price Ceiling Price ceilings are maximum prices legally allowed in markets by government. That is, no price is allowed above the price ceilings. The regulation looks like this. Figure 10

Price ce

In Figure 10, if ghorizontal line, wh At the ceisupply is at Sc. Hexcess demand by This phen

S

E

D iling

P0

P

Dc 0 Sc X0

overnment sets the regulated price (that is, price at will happen to the consumers and producers in the

ling price, the quantity of good X demanded is givenence, the demand exceeds the supply, i.e., D>S. Th the amount of the difference between Dc and Sc.

omenon will result in the situation that many co

15

Good X

ceiling) as the market?

at Dc, while the ere will be the

nsumers in the

Page 16: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

market make lines to purchase good X since there is a shortage of good X in the market. Then, what will be? One of the possible results is that there will be black markets. In the black markets, some producers or people who can get good X by probably illegal ways will try to sell good X at very high prices, which will be well above P0. Then, who gets good X? I believe they are the people who can afford paying the high prices.

As another sequence, since the price of good X is regulated well below the competitive price, producers in the market are normally willing to supply only as much as Sc. Therefore, we know there will be fewer consumers in the market who are able to buy good X. Hence, the regulated price, i.e., the price ceiling, distorts the market and lower the market welfare, whose result is certainly not preferable, since we know resources in the society are scarce. Example of price ceiling: rent control and usury law (maximum interest rate charged) 4-1 Price Floor Price floor is a minimum price legally allowed in a market by government. That is, no price is allowed below the price floor. The regulation looks like this. Figure 11

Price

S

E

D

P0

floor

P

0 DF X0 SF

16

Good X

Page 17: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

In Figure 11, the price floor is set above the equilibrium price so that there will be excess supply by the amount of SF minus DF. This will result in that more good X is unsold and accumulated in warehouses of firms in the market. Or, if government guarantees its purchase of the excess amount of good X, then now the government will pile the goods in its warehouse, like rise. In the market, consumers must pay at the price floor and consequently reduce their consumption from X0 at the competitive market equilibrium. So, the total consumption at the price floor is smaller than the equilibrium amount of consumption at P0. Hence, the market is worse at the price floor than at the competitive equilibrium. Example of price floor: minimum wage law and government price support for rise.

17

Page 18: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

Lecture 4 (講義 4): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 6 Time and Risk

Stigliz: pp. 122-142

Key Terms ・interest ・principal ・present discounted value ・intertemporal trades2 ・real rate of interest ・nominal rate of interest ・assets ・expectations ・myopic expectations ・adaptive expectations ・rational expectations ・risk averse ・adverse selection ・moral hazard ・entrepreneurs 1 . Time Value of Money If you are asked which you would prefer either having one dollar now or one dollar a year from now, most of you will say a dollar now rather than receiving the same amount a year later. That is, one dollar now is worth more than one dollar a year later. This is called the time value of money.

Now, how much do you think the worth now of one dollar received next year? We use the concept of present discounted value. 1-1 Present Discounted Value (PDV): 現在割引価値 In order to calculate the present discounted value of one dollar next year, we divide one dollar by 1 + interest rate, i.e., . Thus, we have )+1( r

)+1(1

=r

PDV .

Now, suppose the interest rate is 1 percent, i.e., , the PDV is, 01.0=r

99.0=)01.0+1(

1=PDV .

This means, one dollar next year is the value of 99 cents now. This is the reason why you choose one dollar now rather than one dollar next year. 2 Intertemporal は「異時点間」と訳されていると思います。例えば、「今日と明日」、「現

在と将来」という関係をいいます。

18

Page 19: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

[Exercise] How much worth of 2 dollars to get paid at the end of two years is now, if the interest rate is 2 percents?

96078.1)02.01(

22 =

+=PDV .

1-2 Interest Rate The interest rate r is a price. It tells how many dollars next period we can get if we give up one dollar today. Therefore, the higher the interest rate, the higher the price is for consumption today. If you consume by one dollar today, you are giving up the opportunity to receive the interest by the amount of next period. 00.1×r Real Interest Rate and Nominal Interest rate: First, it is easy to see what the nominal interest rate (名目利率) is. The nominal interest rate is one you may see rates posted at banks and in the newspaper. For example, when you go to a bank and ask tellers how much the interest rate is now for your savings account. It is surely less than one percent now, as of January 2004. the interest rate told by a teller is the nominal rate of interest (or the nominal interest rate).

Real interest rate (実質利率) is the difference between the nominal interest rate and rate of inflation. Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate – Rate of Inflation 実質利率 = 名目利率 - 期待インフレーション率 Now, let us define r : real interest rate, i : nominal interest rate, and

PP∆

: expected inflation rate.

We will have,

PP∆

ir -=

or

19

Page 20: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

PP∆

ri += , which means that the nominal interest rate = the real interest rate + the

expected rate of inflation. [Exercise] How much is the today’s worth of 2 dollars next year? Assume that the nominal interest rate is 3%, of which the real interest rate i r is 1% and the expected

rate of inflation PP∆

is 2%.

9417.1=]03.0+1[

2=

)]02.0+01.0(+1[2

=]+1[

2=

iPDV

[Story] Suppose you are considering to buy a good X now and it costs 100 yen per unit. But, you are asked to lend 100 yen at the same time by your friend. Your friend promised to pay an interest for borrowing 100yen in addition to 100 yen tomorrow. She is very clever and says the interest rate is 10% for borrowing 100 yen from you. You finally decide to lent 100 yen to her rather than buying the good X now. Now, let us assume the inflation rate is 10% per day and will be so tomorrow.

Price of a good ( 10.0=∆PP

) money in yen

Today t=0 100 (assumed) 100 (you lend to your friend) Tomorrow 110 110 (you get paid from your friend)

In the above example, are you making any gains or loss? You might say you are happy because your friend appreciates your kindness for lending 100 yen today.

But, think it again. You are making some loss under the above contract, although you can buy one unit of good X tomorrow, while you can buy it today too if you do not lend 100 yen to her. What you are making the loss is the sacrificed consumption today for tomorrow. Which is happier either the today’s consumption or tomorrow’s?

Therefore, in general, if you lend some money and give up today’s (or current) consumption for tomorrow (or future), you must charge more than the expected rate of

20

Page 21: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

inflation. The charged interest rate is the nominal interest rate. Thus, the extra charge over the expected rate of inflation is the real interest rate.

In other way, your willingness to give up today’s consumption for tomorrow is,

say, 3%. The rate is called your rate of time preference. Thus, if the (expected) inflation rate is 10% and your rate of time preference is 3%, then the nominal interest rate should be 3%+10%=13%. Then, you net gain is 3% when you get paid from your friend tomorrow. Otherwise, if you get paid only 10% under the inflation rate is 10%, you are forcing yourself to give up your current consumption, which is your psychic loss. 1-3 Supply and Demand for Loan-able Funds When there is no inflation, the real interest rate is equal to the nominal interest rate. But, if the rate of inflation is not 0 but some positive value, then the nominal interest rate is the price of loan-able funds.

No Inflation Case: 0=PP∆

The real interest rate = the nominal interest rate ir =

Figure 12

Demand for loan-able funds

Supply of loan-able funds

r

r*

M* 0

21

Quantity of Money

Loan-able and Borrowed
Page 22: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

Non-zero Inflation Case: 0≠PP∆

The real interest rate = the nominal interest rate – the rate of inflation, which implies The nominal interest rate = the real interest rate + the rate of inflation

PP∆

ri +=

Figure 13

Demand for loan-able funds

Supply of loan-able funds

i

i**

M** 0 Quantity of Money

Loan-able and Borrowed

In the case of non-zero rate of inflation, if you lend one dollar now, you should take the rate of inflation into account for the interest rate.

Suppose, 02.0=PP∆

and you say the (nominal) rate of interest is also 0.02. Let us

see how much you get next period.

i

・The amount you receive next period: . 02.1=02.1×1=)+1(× idollarone

During the period, the rate of inflation is 2%. Hence, the value of money decreases by 2%. That is, you lose the real value by the amount of 0.02 dollars. Note, inflation always reduces the value of purchasing power since the price of goods rises, while the goods are the same in quantity as the period before inflation.

22

Page 23: Lecture 3 (講義 3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 …yamada/Classes/Past Classes...Lecture 3 (講義3): April 20 and 22, 2004 Chapter 4 Demand, Supply, and Price Stiglitz: pp

・ Suppose the good in question costs one dollar now. If the inflation rate is 2 percents, the price of the good next period is 1.02 dollars.

・ Now, you see. You get 1.02 dollars next period, when you led one dollar today. But

at the same time the price of goods rises by 2 percent, which is the rate of inflation. Hence, the price next period is 1.02 dollars.

・ Hence, by lending one dollar today you do not get any benefits, but rather you make

loss by sacrificing the current consumption today for the sake of the consumption next period.

・ Therefore, to avoid your loss, when you lend your money, your charge for the

interest should include the rate of inflation. ・ In our above example, if you want to have the real interest rate to be 2 percents,

your interest rate (that is, the nominal interest rate) should be the sum of the real

interest rate and the rate of inflation: 04.0=02.0+02.0=+=PP∆

ri . That is, the

money interest rate is 4%. 2. The Market for Assets People usually save money in the form of assets such as stocks, bonds, other financial securities, gold and so on. In order to buy these assets, people sacrifice current consumptions for the sake of future consumption. For giving up the current consumption, people get paid interest payments in return in the future. Hence, what important is present discounted values of those assets. Since PDV over the n period is defined as

∑= +

=n

t trateerestalno

ticesAssetFuturePDV0 )intmin1(

)(Pr' , t n,...,0= ,

any changes in present discounted values will affect the demand for those financial assets.

23

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Therefore, if you expect an increase in the interest rate (usually, we observe the nominal interest rates), PDV of dollars you expect to receive in the future falls. This implies, the financial assets become less attractive. This will cause people to reduce the demand for financial assets. If we consider the financial asset in question now is stocks, i.e., financial securities, the price of shares on the stock market will fall. This is shown by the arrows in the figure below: Figure 14

Supply of stocks

L L stmwItin incimw

price of share of

stock

Demand for stocks

p*

P1

esson 1: the nom

esson 2: the realNote: Lesson 2 hatement since I hemory of 30 yeahile the money ra depends on howflation.

On the othcrease may caus

ontracts are fixeplies that the rea

illing to hire une

0 S* S1

inal interest rate moves inversely

interest rate may be related with as “may” in the statement since I ave no evidences with me. In fact

rs ago. Of course, if there is an incrte of interest does not change, the r fast the money rate of interest can

er hand, if there is an increase in te an increase in production of ou

d between employers and employl wage rate may fall in the future anmployed people and to produce out

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Quantity of Stock sold and

bought

with the prices of assets.

the expected rate of inflation. am not quite confident with this , I am stating Lesson 2 from my ease in expected rate of inflation eal rate of interest must decrease. adjust with the expected rate of

he expected rate of inflation, this tput such as GNP, if the wage

ees during relevant terms. This d, hence, the employers are more put. Then, if the nominal interest

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rate is staggered (that is, not flexible), then an increase in real output must lower the real rate of interest.3 3. The Market for Risk In our daily life, we are seldom free from risk. What I mean by risk is an occurrence of unexpected events, while the term of risk is usually used rather in a negative way. There is another word to express the similar meaning as risk. That is the term of uncertainty. In some formal texts, risk is defined differently from uncertainty. We are not differentiating these terms here, while I am always using the term of risk.4 Our text says that psychologists study risk-avoidance behavior of individuals by focusing on the anxiety to which uncertainty gives rise. We economists refer to this risk-avoidance behavior by saying that individuals are risk averse (Principles of Micro-Economics by J. E. Stiglitz (1997) p.130). Note. risk averse: 危険回避 3-1 Responding to Risk Various ways to avoid and mitigate risk ・ simply avoid risk. In other words, don’t get closer to any events with risk ・ to keep one’s option open. That is, don’t leave you with only one choice, but rather

with many choices. ・ Diversifying risk. Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket. That is, when you buy

some financial securities, do not buy one company’s stock only but buy different companies’ stocks.

・ Transferring and sharing risks. Buy some insurances against an occurrence of unexpected event such as fire, sickness and so forth.

3-2 Limits on Insurance as protecting against risk Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard Adverse Selection (逆選択) The adverse selection problem arises when insurance companies try to raise their premiums and the best risks (persons) stop buying insurance but the worst risks

3 Sorry to say, but, since I am not a macro economist, please check this with macro economists. 4 I believe, the term of uncertainty is used when an unexpected event has a known probability distribution to the individual (or firm) in question.

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(persons) buy insurance. Note. Premium: the risk premium is the extra payment an individual or firm must receive to be willing to bear risks. For example, an insurance company promises to pay some amount of money if an individual buy an insurance policy against fire burning her own house. Suppose the value of her house is $100 and the probability of fire is 0.01. The expected loss = $100 times 0.01 = $1 This one dollar is the expected payment she can make to the insurance company. However, the insurance company will never sell an insurance policy promising the $100 payment for the loss of house due to fire, since there is no gain for the company at all. Then, if she pays $1.10 rather than $1 to the insurance company and the latter sells the insurance policy, the extra payment, i.e., 0.10 dollars (= 10 cents), is the risk premium. [A Small Talk] When you travel by air, you may want to buy an insurance against any accidents during your travel. If the probability of accident during travel is 0.01%, i.e., 0.0001, and the loss if accidents take place is 30,000,000 yen, the expected loss (or payment) is, the expected loss = 0.0001 x 30,000,000=3,000 Then, the fair price is 3,000 yen for the insurance. But, since the individual is usually risk averse, she may willing to buy the insurance by paying more than 3,000 yen and suppose she buys an insurance for 5,000 yen to receive 30,000,000 yen. The difference is, 5,000-3,000=2,000 yen, which is the risk premium for her. ・ Moral Hazard(モラルハザード) Insurance reduces the individual’s incentives to avoid the insured-against accident. For example, when you have an car insurance against car accidents, you may become less careless or more aggressive in driving your car. This sort of individual’s behavior may take place by knowing damages due to car accident are covered by the insurance policy she buys.5 5 Please do not risk your life when you drive your car. You are not taking into account the psychic values attached to you by your boy- or girl-friend. More importantly, do not,

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please, forget your parents, sisters and brothers.