Lecture 21: Impacts on the Middle East (II)

The American War in Iraq!

26th March 2003 (Wednesday)

Rationales of the Mid-term Examination

Grade to be Posted Before Next Wednesday (Hopefully) Question Analysis Next Wednesday (Hopefully) Roles of Examinations

Future-oriented: Grade [3-4-3] Enrichment-oriented: Performance [?-?-?]

Newspaper Reader or Newspaper Commentator? Political Science in the Perceptive Spectrum

Political Science (Logic, Methodology, Induction, Deduction)

History Water-blowing (Memorization) (Subjective Bluffing)

Question 3: In the Anti-Terror Coalition, which of the followings is NOT a rationale for these countries to participate? Britain – to elevate its national status by sticking to the Americans. Mexico – to look for financial rewards from the United States. Russia – to safeguard the achievements of the “Greek Plan” of Catherine

the Great. [=Russia as an Eurasian Empire, inc. Chechenya] USA – to pre-empt the terrorist threat of Afghanistan. Uzbekistan – to be removed from the American list of authoritarian countri

es.

Bush Doctrine I: Countries Chose to Harbor Terrorist = Terrorist (Vs Taliban) Implication 1: Countries Have the Right to Choose (Active) Implication 2: After Taking Side, the Countries are ALREADY the Terrorist,

Need to be PUNISHED/EXECUTED, Instead of PRE-EMPTEDBush Doctrine II: Countries Suspected of Future Terrorist Tendency Have to be

Pre-empted (Vs Iraq) Implication 1: Countries Do NOT Have the Right to Choose (Passive) Implication 2: After Being Assigned as Evil States, the Countries are POT

ENTIAL Threat of Terrorism, Need to be PRE-EMPTED, Instead of PUNISHED

Question 14: Which of the following countries CAN be attacked by the United States AFTER the introduction of the revised Bush Doctrine?

Afghanistan. Iraq. China. Britain. All of the above.

Bush Doctrine I: To the USA: Passive (wait for the decision of others) To other Countries: Active (can decide to take side)Bush Doctrine II: To the USA: Active (can define the terrorist threat) To other Countries: Passive (cannot even take side)

Which of the following countries CAN be attacked by the United States AFTER the introduction of the original Bush Doctrine?

None of the above.

Question 13: If Al Gore was elected as the American president in 2000, which of the followings is still MOST likely to happen after 911?

NOT Imaginary The Hidden Questions:1. What is the main difference between the foreign policy of the

Democratic Party (Clinton-Gore) and the Republic Party (Reagan-Bush Sr.-Bush Jr.)?

2. How are the choices categorized?

The American War against Afghanistan. [Multilateralism] The American War against Iraq. [Unilateralism] The declination of Russian membership in NATO. [Unilateralism] The formation of the Axis of Evil. [Unilateralism] All of the above are likely to happen after 911 even with Al Gore

as the president.

None of the above. a debatable option

Question 15: Through planning the 911 attack, Osama Bin Laden is likely to aim at the followings EXCEPT:

Not Imaginary The Hidden Questions:1. Are these options consistent to Islamic Fundamentalism that Osama Bin

Laden believes?2. Are they covered in the Grand Strategy of Laden’s Conspiracy Theory?

[invite American attack provoke the Muslims alienate the Western allies revolution of world order]

The American retreat from the Middle East. [step 1] The aroused conscious of Pan-Islamism through provoking the America

n revenge. [step 1 & 2] The change of status quo by removing America from the top. [step 4] The handover of corrupted Middle East regimes to SECULARISM.

Secularism (the rule of non-religion) = Enemy of Islamic Fundamentalism The current American War in Iraq. [step 1, 2 & 3]

The Methodological Training

To differentiate the very similar facts in the newspapers, which represent very different hidden agendas Bypass, cross, occupy, overcome, tackle…

To trace the MAIN origin of different facts contemporarily by the DEDUCTION logic

To predict the MAIN focus of different facts contemporarily by the INDUCTION logic

Inter-transferability in Real Life

Announcements on Guest Speakers

Israel Consul General Eli Avidar The Israeli-Palestinian Issue Lecture 19: 19th March 2003 (Wednesday) http://hongkong.mfa.gov.il

Indian Political Consul Anurag Goel Indian Response to 911 and the Regional Order Lecture 25: 31st March 2003 (Monday) Please Sign Up for Lunch Afterwards

Advice on Presentation of T1, 2B, 3B: http://pshweb01.881903.com/main/event/hot/hot20030314cr2bd.asx

Structure of Lecture 21: The First Gulf War (1990-

1991) Impacts of the First Gulf War Relationship between 911

and the Current American War in Iraq

Contrasting Diplomacy of the 2 Wars on Iraq What can you tell?

Conclusion: Macro Plans of the War?

Open Forum on the War

PART IThe First Gulf War

(1990-1991)

Early History of Iraq

The Glorious and “Warlike” History of the Iraqis: The Babylonian Empire Saddam’s Idol: King Nebucha

dnezzar The Islamic Empire and the

Arabian Nights Iraqis under Ottoman Rule

(1553-1914) Message from the “Restorati

on” of Babylonian Heritage by Saddam Hussein

British Imperialism in Middle East

Iraq as an Ottoman Province British Imperialism of 19th Century

The “3B Plan”: Berlin, Budapest and Baghdad

Imperialist Rival between Britain, France and Russia in the Middle East

British “Protection” of Kuwait (1898) and the Iraqi Response

Iraqi Became a British Protectorate after WWI (1920)

Relations with the Current British Role?

The Independent Iraq

1932: Independence of Iraq King Faisal I Concept of “Economic Impe

rialism” and “Semi-colony” 1958: Military Coup agains

t King Faisal II 1961: First Modern Claim

of Kuwait by General Qasim

Saddam Hussein and the “Least Islamist Islamic Country”

1968: Arab Socialist Baath (Resurrection) Party Purge of Islamic Fundamentalism!

1979: Saddam Hussein and the Revolutionary Command Committee (RCC)

1980-1988: Iran-Iraq War Ayatollah Khomeni and the Islamic

Revolution in Iran Saddam Hussein as the Great Sec

ular Leader CIA Support towards Iraq

Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait (Aug 1990)

Territorial Claim from History Comparison with “Irredentism” of

China Expansionism as a Ruling

Behavior of Dictators The Waning of Cold War Economic Solution to the Iran-

Iraq War The American “Go-ahead”

Signal?

International Response

United Nations Sanction and Condemnation Security Council – 14:0:1

Coalition Army of 34 Countries USA, Britain, NATO Gulf Cooperative Committee,

Egypt, Syria Desert Storm (Jan – April

1991)

PART IIResults of the First Gulf War

The Mystical Cease-fire

Conflicting Motivations within the American Government: Diplomatic Concern of

President George H W Bush Military Concern of the

Pentagon American Denunciation to

Support the Kurdish Minority Continuation of the Saddam

Regime “Preferable”

Partition of Iraq

The Saddam Regime “Kurdish Regional Gover

nment” in the North The Separatist Movement

of “Kurdistan” “Protectorates” of the Shi

’ites (No-Fly Zone) The New Iranian-Iraqi Rel

ationship

United Nations Sanctions

1990: Economic Sanctions 1991: End of Iraq’s Mass Destruction Weapons 1995: “Oil for Food” Program 1998: “Operation Desert Fox”

Saddam: 1.7million deaths 1991-2002 Resignation of United Nations Inspectors in

Protest

Long-term International Reactions

Rise of Pax Americana American troops in Saudi Ara

bia Kuwait as an American Prote

ctorate The Oil Value of the Gulf Co

operative Committee Rise of Anti-Americanism

Osama Bin Laden, Al-Qaeda and Gulf War

Wahhabism in Saudi Arabia

PART IIIRelationship between911 and the Current

American War in Iraq

Al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein?

USA: Al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein

are allies Al-Qaeda in the Iraqi Government Iraq provides technical assistance

to Laden

Rival between Laden and Saddam Islamic Fundamentalism Vs Secul

arism Personal Rival for the Arabic Lead

ership

Message Behind the Change of Iraqi National Flag (1991)

Red/ White/ Black: colors of the Socialists

The “takbir” =

God is Great

Mass Destruction Weapons (MDW)?

Mass Destruction Weapons: A Range of Destruction Wi

der than the Sense of Self-Defense

Causing “Mass Destruction”

Chemical, Biological, Nuclear Weapons

Aggressive History of Iraq United Nations Inspector Han

s Blix

Iraq in the Axis of Evil

Axis of Evil (January 2002): Iran, Iraq, North Korea Targets of American “Pre-emptiv

e” Strategy

Comparison with North Korea President Kim Jong Il – mad or s

mart? Recognition of Mass Destruction

Weapon China and Russia as the Backsta

ge Boss? The American Tolerance or the

Next Target?

Popularity of President George W Bush

Popularity of George W Bush: Over 80% after 911 Highest since President FD

Roosevelt American Polls Today:

75% In Favor of the War! Election Concern?

The Confidential “Post-Saddam Iraqi Order Proposal” of USA

Proposal right after 911 – or even earlier Marshall Plan of 21st Century

to Save the US Economy Cheap Oil for 100 Years Establishment of “Democratic

Government” as an American Ally

Basis of Future American Campaign in the Middle East

Model: US Occupation of Japan after WWII

Assigned Readings Main Text: Found Ajami: “The Uneasy

Imperium – Pax Americana in the Middle East” (H&R P.15-30)

Supplementary Text: CNN Showdown Iraq Special (

http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2002/iraq/) CNN War in Iraq Special http://www.cnn.com/SP

ECIALS/2003/iraq/ BBC War in Iraq Special http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/

hi/in_depth/middle_east/2002/conflict_with_iraq/default.stm

Arabic Peninsula Information http://www.aljazeerah.info/

China Xinhua Agency War in Irq Special http://www.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/mywj/index.htm

PART IV Contrasting

Diplomacy of the Two American

Wars on Iraq

The Great Diplomatic Paradox

USA 1991: Everything was Diplomatic Acceptance of Previous Enemies into the C

oalition (Syria) Toleration of “Undemocratic” Allies (KSA) Respect towards Other Nations (Russia, Ch

ina) In the Name of United Nations

USA 2002-2003: Every was “Anti-diplomatic” –

The Great Diplomatic Paradox (II)

Iraq 1990-1991: Everything but Diplomatic Alienation of Islamic Support Isolation in the World

Iraq 2002-2003: Everything but Anti-diplomatic Mass Opinion War Respect of United Nations and

Big Powers Arousing Islamic Consciousness

Contrasting Reactions of the Islamic World

Syria: from joining the coalition army to semi-alliance with Iraq

KSA: from sponsor of Gulf War to the next American target

Kuwait and Gulf Cooperative Committee: from happy to worry

Pakistan: the path towards anti-America

Indonesia: the pathtowards anti-America

Contrasting Reactions of the Traditional American Allies

Britain: from massive support to anti-war public

NATO: from closest partner to the diplomatic coup of France and Germany

Turkey: disallowance of lending its basis

Disappearance of French Toast in USA

Contrasting Reactions from other World Powers

Russia: from a peace broker of the First Gulf War to an opposition party of the Second Gulf War

China: from neutral to supporting the Franco-German Proposal

United Nations: from the symbolic worldwide leadership to its downfall Experience of the League of

Nations

Coalition of the Willing 45 Members (Military OR Symbolic) Vs the Rest 160 of the World 1991: 34 Military Members and More than 100 “Symbolic Members” Western Traditional Allies (9): Australia, Britain, Denmark, Iceland, I

taly, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Turkey Eastern Europe (13): Albania, Azerbajian, Bulgaria, Czech Rep, Est

onia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia

Asian Allies (5): Japan, Philippines, Mongolia, Singapore, South Korea

Islamic Countries (3): Afghanistan, Kuwait, Uzbekistan Latin America (6): Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El S

alvador, Honduras, Nicaragua Africa (4): Eritrea, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda Pacific Islands (4): Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau, Solomon Is

lands

Conclusion:Macro Purpose

of the War?

The Osama Bin LadenProposal: A Revision

Provocative Strategy America occupation of Afghanistan

to be Repeated in Iraq Anti-Americanism Islamic Fundamentalists

gained power from the corruptive Islamic States

Alienation of the America Allies

Pan-Islamic Empire

Provocative Strategy of George W Bush?

Anything but diplomatic = everything about non-diplomatic Provoking all sorts of anti-Am

erican sentiment in the region Excuse to overthrow them all Establish a new world order b

ased on American interests in the Middle East

Even tuning down the influence of ex-allies of the “Old World”……

Open Forum

Surprised by the American Efficiency?

Surprised by the Republican Guard of Iraq?

Misled/ Confused by the Psychological War?

How long will it last?

Any possibilities for America to lose?

What will be its impacts?