Leapfrogging energy system

flexibility for integrating high

share of renewable electricity

Peter D. Lund 1Aalto University, School of Science Espoo-Otaniemi, Finland peter.lund@aalto.fi

IEEE SEGE 2013, Oshawa 28-30 August 2013

Global energy & climate nexus

Sustainable energy transition

Energy systems innovations

Cases on high RE share

Outline

Dynamics of the global

energy system

Peter Lund 2013

The Energy-Climate

challenge ahead

in simple terms

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I. Fossil fuels >80% of energy, oil>98% of traffic

II. Coal (power) and oil (traffic) 80% of CO2

III.Goal: CO2 down by 60% 2050, >80% in industrialized countries

IV. 65% of energy used in cities(80% in2040)

V. Energy issues shifting from industrialized countries to emerging economies, e.g. in Asia

Current trend: New record in

human carbon emissions 2012

Peter Lund 2013 Lhde : IEA, 2012

1990 2035

45

Gt

20

22 Gt

CO2

20% of population use 80% of all [energy] resources 1/2 of all people earn less than 2$ a day

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Energy technology

options by 2050 (IEA 2008)

Ref: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008

Renewable electricity is

more than adequate to

supply 80% of U.S.

electricity in 2050;

Increased electric system

flexibility is needed

(supply- and demand-side

options);

Multiple combinations of

renewable technologies

possible.

U.S. Renewable Electricity

Futures Study (RE Futures)

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Source: NREL: Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures, 2012

Trends in new energy

- growing markets and falling prices

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Progress in solar PV and wind power

price (PV) price (wind) volume (PV) volume (wind)

Take-off of Solar PV?

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Ref Lund PD. Fast market penetration of energy technologies in retrospect with application to clean energy futures. Applied Energy (2010), doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.05.024; P.D. Lund:Exploring past energy changes and their implications for the pace of penetration of new energy technologies. Energy 35 (2010) 647656

PV share of world electricity 2013 < 1%; By 2050: 5% (slowing progress) 25% (fast-track)

10% of world electricity 2050

20% of world electricity 2050

Several studies and scenarios indicate high future market

shares of renewable energy and electricity

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Shifting to sustainable energy

Distributed and renewable energy

generation technologies

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Distributed power topology

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RE (PV) resource variability

on different time scales

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Temporal market effects from

large-scale RE (Germany)

(c) Peter Lund 2013

Spatial effects from RE

schemes

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Large-scale RE schemes require

systemic bridging innovations

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Old 100% New 100%

New 0% Old 0%

Multi-energy networks Flexible demand

EV,ICT

Storage E2T,V2G,E2Gas

How does the energy system

work with much renewable energy?

Smart infrastructures provide

spatiotemporal flexibility

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Smart built environment provide

spatiotemporal flexibility

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Energy systems perspective to

high-shares of RE power

Q1: matching supply and demand of electricity with RE sources

Q2: integrating distributed RE power into the energy system

Examples of solutions:

1. RE in urban context

2. Grid infrastructures

3. Smart Grids

4. Electricity markets

5. Co-generation (CHP)

6. RE coupled with end-use

7. Electricity-to-Gas

8. RE+Gas integration

9. Demand flexibility

10.Storage

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http://www.google.fi/imgres?imgurl=http://www.renewbl.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/masdar-city.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.renewbl.com/2010/12/06/first-masdar-city-building-completed-features-1-mw-solar-rooftop-installation.html&usg=___tbgfcooGcyAElU9bQcuH_acXpU=&h=462&w=600&sz=111&hl=fi&start=120&zoom=1&tbnid=QW3yOqD0TeJfQM:&tbnh=127&tbnw=165&ei=5ME2TZjWNsao8AO2ws2DDA&prev=/images?q=Masdar&hl=fi&sa=X&rls=com.microsoft:fi:IE-SearchBox&rlz=1I7SUNA_en&biw=1255&bih=730&tbs=isch:1&prmd=ivns&itbs=1&iact=rc&dur=0&oei=sME2TcLJHs6s8QOGzMWLDA&esq=6&page=6&ndsp=24&ved=1t:429,r:12,s:120&tx=108&ty=93

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Simple control of large-amounts of RE:

Ex. Curtailing PV power

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Examples of

grid extension

plans in

Europe

Integrated electricity market

a Nordic system innovation for large-scale use variable renewables

Nordic electricity market has a common power reserve which can be accessed through the power exchange

How much wind power is possible without major reserve power increase?

If wind 10% of all electricity extra cost for reserve power is 1 /MWh

If 20% 1-7 /MWh (source: H.Holttinen, VTT)

Vision: 20-25 % of all Nordic electricity wind power by 2030; Norwegian hydropower buffers

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REF IEA 2012

RE&Gas: better power plant flexibility

A

B C

Ref. Wrtsil, Smart

Power Generation, 2011

Ref. IEA, Golden Rules

for a Golden Age of Gas

Final energy in urban environment

thermal energy forms dominate end-use side

Final energy use forms in buildings: heating, cooling, electricity

EU-27household energy:

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67 %

15 %

14 % 4 %

Space heating

Appl&Light

Hot water

Cooking

Electricity-to-thermal conversion of

surplus renewable electricity

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Picture: Helsinki Energy Annual Report 2010

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How much wind power could

be utilized in Helsinki?

Generating spatiotemporal (load)

profiles (x,y,t)

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Annual load per type

1 5 9 13 17 21

Typical hourly load profiles per type

1 5 9 13 17 21

Total hourly load profile over a year

(x,y)-distributions e.g. building type

Scaled

profiles Fitted

profiles

Spatiotemporal

loadprofile (x,y,t)

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Electric (left) and District Heating

Networks and Loads (right) in Helsinki

Matching power demand and supply

each hour of the year!

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Helsinki power demand Wind power production

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variation

(re

l. u

nits)

486 MW

How does wind power match demand?

Wind = power and heat demand 1349 MW wind power = 71% of electricity per year (2% of heat)

Ref: R. Niemi, J. Mikkola, P.D. Lund: Urban energy systems with smart multi-carrier energy networks and renewable energy generation. Renewable Energy, 2012. Ref: Lund, P. : Large-scale urban renewable electricity schemes - integration and interfacing aspects. Energy Conversion and Management, 2012

Wind power supply

Heat demand

Electricity demand

1349 MW

Wind = power demand 486 MW wind power = 25% of yearly electricity in Helsinki

Worst day for wind power: Feb 6

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Mismatch between PV and electricity

demand case Shanghai

Different levels of PV

Ref: Lund, P. : Large-scale urban renewable electricity schemes - integration

and interfacing aspects. Energy Conversion and Management, 2012

Smart energy may 2-3 x feasible PV capacity in Shanghai Base case (PV peak equals to electric load): 31% daily energy share, 25% of yearly electricity share Advanced case (PV peak equals to total load: 50-70% of daily energy demand (40-55% of yearly electricity)

Example of power distributions with

large PV schemes in Shanghai

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Niemi, R., Mikkola, J., Lund P., Urban energy systems with smart

multi-carrier energy networks and renewable energy generation,

Renewable Energy 48 (2012) 524-536.

Pushing the share of RE power

2-3-fold beyond the traditional limit

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Electricity-to-Thermal strategy: RE system is oversized, surplus turned into and stored as thermal energy (heat or cold) ; or curteiled

Ref: Lund,P.: Large-scale urban renewable electricity schemes - integration and interfacing aspects. Energy Conversion and Management, 2012

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Shanghai, China (solar)

Dhahran, Saudi-Arabia (solar)

Helsinki, Finland (wind)

Share of renewable energy,%/a

4 RE provides 100% of daily cooling demand during peak RE conditions

3 RE provides 100% of daily heat demand during peak RE conditions

2 RE matches hourly demand of electricity and heat during peak RE conditions

1 RE matches hourly demand of electricity during peak RE conditions

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Base case

Electrified vehicles providing

electricity servives (E2V, V2G)

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Tesla Motors - Model S lithium-ion battery pack

Source IEA

Key parameters for the simulation:

battery capacity10 kWh

electricity consumption 0.2 kWh/km

charging efficiency 0.9

power coefficient @ home: kW

power coefficient @ work: kW

sockets: plenty (no queuing)

socket power limit 7.4 kW

battery recharge limit: 1-hour 0100%

EV & PV & Grid

Case Helsinki Metropolitan region Area (1 million people)

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Maximum PV power overflow at peak conditions:

on consumption

and evenly

100% of PV placed

based on load

100% of PV evenly

placed

0 EVs 50,000 EVs (a 10kWh) 100,000 EVs

Large-scale PV+EV case for Helsinki:

2 GWp PV (1/3 of yearly demand, 6x min. summer demand)

EXTRA

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How to build your own

power plant in 1 minute ?

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http://vimeo.com/66544428

http://vimeo.com/66544428http:///http://vimeo.com/66544428

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1 wind turbine = 3-10 GWh electricity

(ca1000-3000 households)

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Wind power: now 3 % of world electricity, 25% in 2050 ? Costs may drop by

Solar electricity (PV) : % of world electricity ($100 B business), 5-25% in 2050; Price

Mass-production (roll-to-roll) of

solar cells

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Source: Janne Halme

Fuel

Electrochemical conversion of fuel to electricity

Fuel Cell (solid oxide fuel cell)

electrolyte

O2 + 4e- = 2 O2-

2 O2- + 2 H2 = 2 H2O + 4 e-

4 e-

anode

cathode

O2-

Courtesy Bin Zhu

Oxidant

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