VIETNAM WARNEGOTIATION TOWARDS PEACE

Vietnam War Timeline

1951 - Ho Chi Minh becomes in the North.1954 - North Vietnamese begin helping South Vietnamese rebels fight South May 1954 - The Battle of Dien Bien Phu.The Geneva Accords end the French Indochina War.July 21, 1954 - Vietnam signs the Geneva Accords and divides into two countries at the 17th

parallel, the Communist-led North and U.S.-supported south.1955 - South Vietnamese Premiere Ngo Dinh Diem rejects Geneva Accords and

refuses to participate in elections (with US backing).1957-1963 - North Vietnam and the Viet Cong fight South Vietnamese troops. The U.S. sends more aid to help the South Vietnamese government to stop the spread of communism in Southeast Asia. 1968 - Tet Offensive and My Lai Massacre incident Jan 27, 1973 - A cease-fire is arranged after peace talks.Mac 29, 1973- The last American ground troops leave. Fighting begins again between North and South Vietnam, but the U.S. does not return.April 30, 1975- South Vietnam surrenders to North Vietnam as North Vietnamese troops enter Saigon, now called Ho Chi Minh City.

FACTS• Casualties

• 1.3 million - Total military deaths for all countries involved• 1 to 3 million - Total death among civilian and military from North

and South Vietnam • 58,220 – Total US military

• Cost of the war• Estimated cost of the war incurred amounted to US150 billion.• The Soviet Union and Communist China are estimated to have

provided about US3 billion worth of aid to North Vietnam and the Vietcong.

• Related peace accords• The Geneva Conference of 1954

• The United States refused to participate in the conference or recognize the accords.

• The Paris Peace Accords (PPA) 1968 -1973• The agreement was not ratified by the U.S. Senate.

Vietnam War – Who to blame?• Cold War

• A state of political tension and military rivalry between nations that stops short of full-scale war, existed between the United States and Soviet Union following World War II

• US agenda – imperialism• US policy of extending a country's power and influence

through diplomacy or military force.

• Power struggles and ideological battle in between South and North

• Major disagreements and power-struggle on who will have control over important areas; ideology, political and economic aspects of a country to be the most powerful).

PHASES OF THE NEGOTIATIONPHASE 1: PREPARATION

The objectives are:• To create peace in Vietnam and to end the prolonged war• Reunification of Vietnam

PHASE 1 (CON’T)

SHADOW NEGOTIATION - THE GROUND OF NEGOTIATION

1) The goals• How to create peace in Vietnam• How to re-unite South and North Vietnam

2) The interests for each parties and how to resolve them3) Where and when the negotiation takes place.4) Who will involve in the negotiation?5) The agenda of the negotiation

PHASE 1 (CON’T)

SOCIAL CONTRACTSocial Contract

1. How the negotiation will proceed

• The place of Negotiation - The negotiation will take place in Geneva which provides a neutral ground for the parties involved

• The Agenda – to be discussed and prioritized

according to its urgency • The time of negotiation – by 1965

• Who should involve?

The North Vietnam, South Vietnam, The PRG, The US, ICCS and members of UN.

Social ContractSocial Contract

2. Who has influence and power

The UN should be in power of ensuring the success of the negotiation and pressure all involving parties to negotiate accordingly.

3. What are the boundaries of the negotiation?

Only allows discussion pertaining the scope of the negotiation. Other issues arise beside the discussion on the scope on the negotiation will no be entertained. Bear in mind that our main objective is to end the war.

PHASE 2: RELATIONSHIP BUILDINGBackground of the PartiesThe North Vietnam South Vietnam PRG/NLF US

Practice communist ideology

Anti-communist ideology

Pro – communist

proxy to North Vietnam

Anti-communist ideology

Colonist being involved since 1950

Seek independence from colonization

Led by Ho Chi Minh

Supported by Soviet and China

Seek independence but refuse to sign the Geneva Accord.

Led by Ngo Dinh Diem

Supported by US

Seek independence by guerrilla and regular army units

Refuse the

communist ideology

Each Parties InterestsNorth Vietnam South Vietnam PRG/NLF The US Pro-Communist Aimed for

independence of Vietnam through US

Pro-communist Aimed for Vietnamization through South Vietnam

Seek to reunify Vietnam under communist rule

Agree on the idea of having one president (if they are the party who lead)

Helping North Vietnam to end the US invasion to Vietnam.

To stop communist ideology from spreading to South East Asia

Disagree on the involvement of US in the establishment of united Vietnam

Agree on the involvement of US because they are in needs of the aid & assistance from the US in supporting the Saigon Government

Disagree on the involvement of US in the establishment of united Vietnam

Would like to involve in the agreement for their own self-interest/hidden agenda (imperialist)

PHASE 3: INFORMATION GATHERING

US may not stop their bombing and want to

proceed helping South Vietnam on winning

the war

The PRG may not want to move out from South

Vietnam and want others to recognized

their government

South Vietnam may not agree on General Election because they

are sure to lose

North Vietnam may refuse to negotiate

because they are sure enough to win the war and they do not want

to compromise

THE FEASIBILITY OF THE POSSIBLE SETTLEMENT

To cater this thing we have to advise to all parties to follow Ury’s breakthrough approach:

Step 1: Don’t react – go to the balcony

Step 2: Disarm Them – Step to their side

Step 5: Make it Hard to Say No – Bring

them to their senses, not their knees

Step 3 : Change the Game – Don’t reject,

reframe

Step 4: Make it Easy to say Yes – Build Them a Golden

Bridge

PHASE 4: INFORMATION USINGBATNA 1 To arrange for an immediate peace negotiations between North and

South Vietnam after the Geneva Accords failure – Geneva Accords 2.• North and South Vietnam to adhere to the treaties as outlined under

Geneva Accords in the Geneva Conference of 1954 which resulted in the division of Vietnam into two zones at the 17th parallel, a northern zone to be governed by the Việt Minh, and a southern zone to be governed by the State of Vietnam.

• General election to be held within a year after conducting a poll on which party to lead the country.

BATNA 2 To amend several proceedings involved in the Paris Peace Accords. Negotiators from North and South Vietnam to led the negotiation on

The Paris Peace Accords instead of United States. This will allow transparency and clarity throughout the negotiation process.

Prohibit influences from any secret negotiation held pertaining the PPA To ensure involvement of all parties in each series of the negotiation. To engage a mediator from United Nation (UN) in ensuring fair and

equitable outcome of the negotiation

BATNA 3 North and South Vietnam government to replicate the People's Republic of China administrative system that enable economic reform which resulted in immense changes in Chinese economy and its society. All power within the government of the People's Republic of China is divided among several bodies: the political branch, the Communist Party of China the executive branch, the State Council the legislative branch, the National People's Congress. the judicial branch, the Supreme People's Court the military branch, People's Liberation Army (PLA) via the Central

Military Commission 

PHASE 5: BIDDING• North Vietnam and NLF• To have South Vietnam to be the main negotiator with North Vietnam

in the Geneva Accord 2• South Vietnam and US• To urge immediate ceasefire by both sides (North and South) at once

before the start of the negotiation.• The discussion concluded that:• Both parties agreed on ceasefire and representation of North and

South in Geneva Accord 2• From the discussion, both parties should confirm their stand and

decision within 3 days from the first discussion.

PHASE 6: CLOSING THE DEAL

• The draft of agreement for Geneva Accord 2 need to be prepared and finalize by representative from the parties involved in Geneva Accord 2 negotiation.

PHASE 7: IMPLEMENTING THE AGREEMENT• The agreement will be carried out by both South and

North Vietnam with the supervision of ICCS and monitored by the UN.

• US troops should withdraw completely from South Vietnam while North must stop the military attacks throughout Vietnam.

• General election is to be held within a year after conducting a poll on which party to lead the country.

THE PLANNING PROCESS1. DEFINE THE ISSUES2. ASSEMBLE THE ISSUES & DEFINE THE BARGAINING MIX3. DEFINE YOUR INTEREST4. KNOW YOUR LIMITS5. KNOW YOUR ALTERNATIVES6. SETTING TARGET 7. ASSESSING CONSTITUENTS AND THE SOCIAL CONTEXT OF THE NEGOTIATION8. ANALYZING THE OTHER PARTY – WHY DO THEY WANT WHAT THEY WANT?9. PRESENT THE ISSUES TO THE OTHER PARTY10.DEFINE THE PROTOCOL TO BE FOLLOWED IN THE NEGOTIATION

1. DEFINE THE ISSUES

• US involvement is believed to have a hidden agenda. • Both parties refuse to acknowledge each other • Only one official meeting, others are secret meetings • Final draft did not consult the other party involved

2. ASSEMBLE THE ISSUES & DEFINE THE BARGAINING MIX

1. US hidden agenda• Cold war with Russia (practice communism)• US agenda – imperialism. US policy of extending a country's power and

influence through diplomacy or military force.

2. Both parties clearly refused to acknowledge each other• North Vietnam: strong belief of communist ideology (power and authority

)• South Vietnam: enhance nationality and patriotism to own country.• Perception, cognitive and emotional influences resulted in sentiment-

based decision.

2. ASSEMBLE THE ISSUES & DEFINE THE BARGAINING MIX

3. Only one official meeting, others are secret meetings • Official meeting: 10 May 1968 in Paris • Few secret meetings starting 4th August 1969( Dr. Henry Kissinger with Le Duc

Tho)

4. Final draft did not consult the other party involved• Did not involved South Vietnamese President, Nguyen Van Thieu• Thieu become suspicious of North Vietnam’s good intention.

3. DEFINE YOUR INTERESTNorth Vietnam South Vietnam PRG/NLF The US

Pro-communist Anti-communist Pro-communist Anti-communist Agree on the idea of

having one president (if they are the party who lead)

 

Agree on the idea of having one president (if they are the party who lead)

Agree on the idea of having one president (if only North Vietnam is the party who lead)

 

Agree on the idea of having one president (if only South Vietnam is the party who lead)

  Disagree on the

involvement of US in the establishment of united Vietnam

Agree on the involvement of US because they are in needs of the aid & assistance from the US in supporting the Saigon Government

Disagree on the involvement of US in the establishment of united Vietnam

Would like to involve in the agreement for their own self-interest.

4. KNOW YOUR LIMITS • No agreement achieved if there are force or violence used or

a bloodshed between negotiating team from South and North Vietnam in the time of establishing peace.

5. KNOW YOUR ALTERNATIVESBATNA 1 To arrange for an immediate peace negotiations between North and South

Vietnam after the Geneva Accords failure – Geneva Accords 2.• North and South Vietnam to adhere to the treaties as outlined under

Geneva Accords in the Geneva Conference of 1954 which resulted in the division of Vietnam into two zones at the 17th parallel, a northern zone to be governed by the Việt Minh, and a southern zone to be governed by the State of Vietnam.

• General election to be held within a year after conducting a poll on which party to lead the country.

BATNA 2 To amend several proceedings involved in the Paris Peace Accords. Negotiators from North and South Vietnam to led the negotiation on The

Paris Peace Accords instead of United States. This will allow transparency and clarity throughout the negotiation process.

Prohibit influences from any secret negotiation held pertaining the PPA To ensure involvement of all parties in each series of the negotiation. To engage a mediator from United Nation (UN) in ensuring fair and

equitable outcome of the negotiation

BATNA 3 North and South Vietnam government to replicate the People's Republic of China administrative system that enable economic reform which resulted in immense changes in Chinese economy and its society. All power within the government of the People's Republic of China is divided among several bodies: the political branch, the Communist Party of China the executive branch, the State Council the legislative branch, the National People's Congress. the judicial branch, the Supreme People's Court the military branch, People's Liberation Army (PLA) via the Central Military

Commission 

6. SETTING THE TARGETHAVE PEACECONTINUE THE GENEVA ACCORDS

Existing outcome New outcome

Geneva Accords1. A ceasefire was signed.2. France agreed to withdraw its troops from the region.3. Indochina was split into three countries: Laos, Cambodia and

Vietnam.4. Vietnam was temporarily divided into North and South

Vietnam until elections could be held to unite the country. Paris Peace Accords5. The settlement included a cease-fire throughout Vietnam.6. Withdrawal all United States troops along with the all the

foreign troops from Laos and Cambodia and the dismantling of all U.S bases within 60 days.

7. In return, the North Vietnamese agreed to release all U.S and other prisoners of war.

8. Reunification of Vietnam

Geneva Accords 21. Modification of Geneva Accords.- Select representative for each parties.- During the agreement, ceasefire throughout the Vietnam.- Elections to choose main parties that can running the

country.

7. Assessing Constituents and the Social Context of the Negotiation

• In the case, the negotiators are US representatives, representatives from North Vietnam and South Vietnam, representatives from US and Provisional Revolutionary Government (PRG), members of UN and ICCS as an observers.

8. Analyzing the Other Party – why do they want what they want?

Parties Want Why

North Vietnam Reunification of Vietnam Seek independence

 The Republic of South Vietnam 

Republic of VietnamAnti-communist Own government with a president 

Collapsed of monarchy system, need a new government

 

The Provisional Revolutionary Government (PRG)/NLF of the Republic of South Vietnam 

 Reunification of Vietnam Seek independence but support the North Vietnam as the new government.

 United States

 Help South Vietnam

 Anti-communist and colonialist

 

9. Present the issues to the other party

- Use clarity, transparency and influence in presenting both the principles and the issues

- Adopting and using 3 different strategic approaches to negotiation: interest, rights and power strategically.

10. Define the protocol to be followed in the negotiation

- What is the agenda?- Where and when will the negotiation occur?- Who will be there?

AFTER NAMAFTER NAM

IT TOOK ME A LONG TIME TO REALIZETHAT EVERY TIME IT THUNDEREDSOMEBODY DID NOT HAVE TO DIE

Pete “doc” Fraser