LASG/IAPLASG/IAP

Research Needs for AMY Research Needs for AMY 2008-2009:2008-2009:

CLIVAR/AAMP perspectiveCLIVAR/AAMP perspective

Second AMY08 International Workshop

9-3-4 2007, Bali

Bin Wang

Acknowledgements: CLIVAR/AAMP

LASG/IAPLASG/IAP

CLIVAR/A-AMPCLIVAR/A-AMP

Co-Chair: Co-Chair:

Bin Wang and Harry HendonBin Wang and Harry Hendon

Cobin Fu, Cobin Fu, In-Sik Kang, In-Sik Kang,

Jay McCreary, Jay McCreary, Holger Holger Meinke, Meinke,

Rajeevan, Rajeevan, Takehiko Takehiko Satomura, Satomura, Andrews Schiller, Andrews Schiller, Julia Slingo, Julia Slingo, Ken Sperber, Ken Sperber,

Peter WebsterPeter Webster

LASG/IAPLASG/IAP

Gaps: First Pan-WCRP workshopGaps: First Pan-WCRP workshop Global Phenomena: Global Phenomena:

diurnal cyclediurnal cycle annual cycleannual cycle, , intraseasonal oscillation,intraseasonal oscillation, atmospheric moisture distribution and atmospheric moisture distribution and

transporttransportaerosol-monsoon-cloud interactionaerosol-monsoon-cloud interaction

Model processesModel processes: surface fluxes, planetary : surface fluxes, planetary boundary layer and cloud.boundary layer and cloud.

Land surfaceLand surface: better observations of land surface : better observations of land surface conditions, roles of atmosphere-land coupling in conditions, roles of atmosphere-land coupling in developing monsoon precipitation, developing monsoon precipitation,

OceanOcean: improve (and sustain) observations; : improve (and sustain) observations; importance of air-sea interaction and ocean processes importance of air-sea interaction and ocean processes in modeling of ISO and ENSO-monsoon relationship in modeling of ISO and ENSO-monsoon relationship

Regional fociRegional foci: processes over the Maritime : processes over the Maritime Continent, Pacific cold tongue and western boundary Continent, Pacific cold tongue and western boundary currents, and Indonesian through flow.currents, and Indonesian through flow.

Year of coordinated Observing, modeling and Forecasting:

Addressing the Challenge of Organized Tropical Convection

This proposed activity arose out of a recommendation by the THORPEX/WCRP/ICTP Workshop on Organisation and Maintenance of Tropical Convection and the MJO, held in Trieste in March 2006. It was presented at the WCRP/CLIVAR SSG Meeting in Buenos Aires in April 2006.

Based on positive feedback from the WCRP Director and the SSG, the SSG asked that the proposal be developed in cooperation with THORPEX, GEWEX, CEOP, AAMP, WOAP, WMP, etc.

If implemented in 2008, this initiative could be a WCRP contribution to the UN Year of Planet Earth* and compliment IPY.

Key Issues AAMP is addressingKey Issues AAMP is addressing What determines the What determines the structure and dynamicsstructure and dynamics of of

the the annual cycle (AC) and diurnal cycle (DC)annual cycle (AC) and diurnal cycle (DC) of of the the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land systemcoupled atmosphere-ocean-land system? How ? How to remedy the major weaknesses of climate to remedy the major weaknesses of climate models in simulation of the AC and DC? models in simulation of the AC and DC?

How predictableHow predictable is the monsoon interannual is the monsoon interannual variability (IAV)? Hvariability (IAV)? How to improve the ow to improve the dynamic dynamic monsoon seasonal predictionsmonsoon seasonal predictions? ?

What What cause monsoon Intraseasonal Variability cause monsoon Intraseasonal Variability (ISV)? How to overcome (ISV)? How to overcome the major challenges to the major challenges to modeling and predict monsoon ISVmodeling and predict monsoon ISV? ?

What are the major modes of What are the major modes of interdecadal interdecadal variation of variation of the monsoon systemthe monsoon system? ?

How and whyHow and why will monsoon system will monsoon system change in a change in a global warming environmentglobal warming environment? ?

What is priority for What is priority for future field future field and and modeling modeling studiesstudies and for and for improving improving observing and observing and modelingmodeling strategy of the monsoon system strategy of the monsoon system? ?

The monsoon precipitation index (shaded) and monsoon domain (contoured) captured by (a) CMAP and (b) the one-month lead MME prediction. (c) The number of model which simulates MPI over than 0.5 at each grid point.

Number of Model

Modeling/prediction of Global Monsoon Domain

Precipitation

Dry

Dry

DryDry

Wet

Wet

Dry

Dry

DryDry

Wet

Wet

Wet

Wet

Dry

Wet

* Impact of El-Nino on Global Climate from NOAA (based on Ropelewski and Halpert (1987), Halpert and Ropelewski (1992), and Rasmusson and Carpenter (1982)

Temporal Correlation Skill of Precipitation

Performance of MMEs Performance of MMEs in Hindcast Global Precipitationin Hindcast Global Precipitation

CliPASCliPAS

Asian-Australian Monsoon PredictabilityAsian-Australian Monsoon Predictability

S-EOF of Seasonal Mean Precipitation Anomalies

The First Mode: 30% The Second Mode: 13%

Forecast Skills of the Leading Modes of AA-M

Koster et al. 2004

Hot places of land surface feedback

LASG/IAPLASG/IAPSlingo 2006: THORPEX/WCRP Workshop report

Need to understand Multi-Scale InterrelationIn Monsoon ISO

LASG/IAPLASG/IAP

Global Monsoon Changes (1948-2004)

Annual Mean Precipitation

Wang and Ding 2006,GRL

In the last 56 years global land monsoon shows a weakening trend. However, in the last 25 years, Oceanic monsoon rainfall increases while land monsoon unchanged.

Monsoon Research Needs

• Observation

• Modeling

• Prediction

• Future changes

Observation• Field campaign for observing specific phenomena:

e.g., organization of convection, multi-scale structure of ISV. (Monsoon trough and Maritime Continent)

• Supper station for validating and improving models• Provide ground truth for calibrating Satellite

measurements. • Promote integrated usage of satellite observations

to study , e.g., 3-D structure and multi-scale interaction in ISV.

• Improve long-term monitoring network in tropical IO-WP and maritime Asia.

• Improve and develop new reanalysis datasets that use new satellite observations, e.g., land data assimilation, ocean data assimilation.

• Design monsoon metrics for assessing model performance and identify key modeling issues. Provide one-stop data source for cross-panel use.

• Develop effective strategy for improving model Physics.

• Determine directions for developing next generation climate models. High resolution modeling

• Encouraging use of forecast type experiments to evaluate models and study climate sensitivities.

• Use large-domain CR or CSR simulation to provide surrogate data for studying convective organization, and mulit-scale interaction.

Modeling

Prediction

• Better understand physical basis for seasonal prediction and ways to predict uncertainties of the prediction.

• Improve representation of slow coupled physics.• Improve initialization scheme and initial conditions

in ocean and land surface.• Develop new strategy and methodology for sub-

seasonal monsoon prediction.• Design metrics for objective, quantitative assessing

predictability and prediction skill. Improve MME prediction system.

Assess Future Changes• Coordinate IPCC AR4 monsoon assessment to address how

and why AA-M system will change in a global climate change environment.

• Role of the monsoon-aerosol interaction and land use in future monsoon change.

• Use MME approach to study the sensitivity of the monsoon to external and anthropogenic climate forcing.

• Coordinate MME experiments to investigate sub-seasonal to interannual factors that influence extreme events, such as TC.

• Determine coherent structure and dynamics of the global monsoon system on Dec/Cen time scales and their linkage to ocean.

LASG/IAPLASG/IAP

Modeling/Prediction (AAMP)Modeling/Prediction (AAMP)

Coordinate CGCM/RCM Process study on MJO/ Coordinate CGCM/RCM Process study on MJO/ MISO (MC-SEA):MISO (MC-SEA): AAMP/MAHASRI, CIMS AAMP/MAHASRI, CIMS

Develop Multi-model ensemble Regional Climate Develop Multi-model ensemble Regional Climate prediction experiment with CGCM, RCM, GLACE prediction experiment with CGCM, RCM, GLACE iin collaboration with MAHASRI, APCC, and n collaboration with MAHASRI, APCC, and MAIRS to determine impacts of the land surface data MAIRS to determine impacts of the land surface data assimilation, land surface processes, and land-assimilation, land surface processes, and land-atmosphere interaction on monsoon seasonal atmosphere interaction on monsoon seasonal predictionprediction

CCoordinated experiment on high resolution climate oordinated experiment on high resolution climate model simulation of hurricane/Typhoon activitymodel simulation of hurricane/Typhoon activity. . (NASA/GMAO: Sieg Schubert) (NASA/GMAO: Sieg Schubert)

LASG/IAPLASG/IAPThanksThanks

LASG/IAPLASG/IAP

AAMP-MAHASRI :AAMP-MAHASRI :Coordinated GCM/RCM Process study onCoordinated GCM/RCM Process study onMonsoon ISO and onset (SEA+MC)Monsoon ISO and onset (SEA+MC)

Integration of observation and modelling, Integration of observation and modelling, Meteorology and Hydrology Meteorology and Hydrology

Domain: MC+SEA (70-150, 15S-40N)—a critical Domain: MC+SEA (70-150, 15S-40N)—a critical region for monsoon ISO influenceregion for monsoon ISO influence

Phenomenon and Issues: ISO, and its Phenomenon and Issues: ISO, and its interaction with diurnal cycle, meso-scale and interaction with diurnal cycle, meso-scale and synoptic scale regulation. Onset of monsoon synoptic scale regulation. Onset of monsoon (summer and winter); impacts of Tibetan (summer and winter); impacts of Tibetan Plateau land surface processesPlateau land surface processes

Design: Driving field, Output, validation Design: Driving field, Output, validation strategy and Data,…strategy and Data,…

Participating model groups: both AGCM and Participating model groups: both AGCM and RCM, each 4-5RCM, each 4-5

LASG/IAPLASG/IAP

MME Downscaling Seasonal MME Downscaling Seasonal Prediction ExperimentPrediction Experiment

Develop effective strategy and Develop effective strategy and methodology for RCM downscalingmethodology for RCM downscaling

Assess the added values of RCM Assess the added values of RCM MME downscaling MME downscaling

Determine the predictability of Determine the predictability of monsoon precipitationmonsoon precipitation

Large scale driving: 10 CGCM Large scale driving: 10 CGCM from DEMETER and APCC/CliPAS from DEMETER and APCC/CliPAS modelsmodels