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© OECD/IEA, 2016
Large-Scale Electricity Interconnection: Technology and Prospects for Cross-Regional Power Networks
15 November, Marrakesh
Jean-Francois Gagne
Head of Division, Energy Technology Policy
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Context
Paris Agreement gives momentum to renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE)
Record additions of RE in 2015, installed capacity surpassed coal
EE investments grew 6% in 2015 reaching $221bln
Local air pollution & energy security are also key drivers for power sector decarbonisation
Energy investment flows confirm a shift to clean energy, but there is need for investment in electricity grids to support the transition
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Contribution of mitigation actions to global cumulative CO2 reductions
Renewables and efficiency are at the heart of the energy transition
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5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
Renewables 32%
Energy efficiency 32%
Fuel switching 10%
Nuclear 11%
CCS 15%2DS
4DS
The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two-thirds through a diversified energy technology mix
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Electricity Generation: a share reversal
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20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
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20 000
30 000
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50 000
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
Other
Wind
STE
Solar PV
Hydro
Biofuels and waste
Nuclear
Coal with CCS
Coal
Oil
Natural gas with CCS
Natural gas
Low-carbon share
Generation today: • Fossil fuels: 68% • Renewables: 22%
Generation 2DS 2050: • Renewables: 67% • Fossil fuels: 17%
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Experience has shown that cost-effective system integration of high shares of variable renewables is possible - with the right policies &
investments
Share of variable renewables in total electricity generation
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
India
China
USA
Brazil
Mexico
Chile
UK
Germany
Ireland
Denmark
Share of variable renewables in electricity generation
2015
2021
Increasing shares of variable renewables calls for more flexibility
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Integration of networks and markets key enabler of flexibility and 21st century electricity systems
This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area
Over 50 million kilometers of transmission lines – and yet less than 1% of this capacity for interconnection
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Investment in transmission grids needs to accelerate to reach COP goals
Transmission will account for 40% of all electricity grid investment needs; half of all transmission lines will have to be replaced between
now and 2040
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Interconnection can provide a range of benefits to achieve sustainable, secure electricity systems
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Interconnection can provide a range of benefits to achieve sustainable, secure electricity systems
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1
Ho
url
y ca
pac
ity
fact
or
Single wind park
Inner Mongolia
China
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Interconnection can provide a range of benefits to achieve sustainable, secure electricity systems
This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area
Wind power potential <100km from cities
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Large-scale Electricity Interconnection: Technology and prospects for cross-regional energy networks
This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area
Rigorous analysis of current technology and potential deployment trends in Europe and North Africa, South East Asia, Central America and Sub-Saharan Africa
South East Asia
Central America Europe and North Africa
Mid-term prospects (source: IEA/NER 2016)
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Conclusions
Clear signs of progress
Success of technology progress, market innovation and political leadership
An energy system approach is critical to achieve transformation
Stronger integration of networks and markets key enabler for the transition
IEA analysis to shed light on the role of large-scale, regional interconnection
© OECD/IEA, 2016
The IEA works around the world to support an
accelerated clean energy transition that is
enabled by real-world SOLUTIONS
supported by ANALYSIS
and built on DATA