LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities

Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov

ESRL / GSD Verification SummitSeptember 2011

Updated Sep 7, 2011

LAPS MotivationHigh Resolution (500m – 20km), rapid update (10-60min)

Highly portable system – about 150 users world wide•Federal Gov’t – NWS, RSA, PADS, FAA, DHS•State Gov’t – California Dept of Water Resoures•International – Finnish Met. Inst., China Heavy Rain Inst.•Global analysis – used by SOS

Wide variety of data sources:

OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 2

Data Ingest

Intermediatedata files

Classic GSI

Data

STMAS-3D

Trans

Trans

Model prep

WRF-ARW MM5 WRF-NMM

EnsembleForecast

ProbabilisticPost

Processing

ErrorCovariance

LAPS / STMAS DA-Ensemble

System

3http://esrl.noaa.gov/gsd/fab

OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

Analysis Scheme

Verification

Built-in Verification

Ports with system

Global Solar Radiation Analysis + Observations

OK Mesonet

ARL / FRD

Global Solar Radiation Analysis

+ Observations

3-Frames at 15-minute

interval

Solar Radiation Analysis Verification

Oklahoma Region (past 48 hours) 15 minute verification~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.

3 km grid spacing 1 km grid spacing

Solar Radiation Web Page

Verified at station locations measuring global solar radiation

on time scales <= 15min

Mean Analyzed / Forecast

Mean Observed

RMS differences

Solar Radiation Analysis Verification

HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series)~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.

Clearer Days

Solar Radiation Analysis Verification

HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series)~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.

Partly Cloudy Days

Downward Solar Radiation Forecast vs. Observations

Cloud Cover Analysis Matching 1-3 hour Solar Radiation Forecast

Solar Radiation Ensemble Forecast Verification

HMT Forecast (00-09 hours)~6 Idaho ARL solar radiation stations.

Solar Radiation Forecast VerificationHWT Forecast (00-06 hours)

LAPS / STMAS / HRRR + Oklahoma solar radiation stations.

LAPS

STMAS

HRRR

LAPS

STMAS

HRRR

Radar Reflectivity Verification Web Page

Verified over various domains of integration for deterministic as

well as ensemble forecasts.

3D radar volume data at several reflectivity thresholds.

BIAS

ETS

CloudSat Verification of LAPS Cloud Analysis

LAPS

CloudSat

16 June 2002

3-hr Forecast, Lin μPhysAnalysis

Well-Developed Squall Line at Initial time

Bias & ETS June 16 2002Low Sensitivity in Bias to Variations

in Microphysics (developed squall line case) ETS values are highest at early times

due to hot-start

Ensemble ETS (North-East Corridor)

Ensemble ETS (North-East Corridor)

STMAS BIAS (North-East Corridor)

CONUS LAPS/WRF and HRRR

Forecast at 2011-09-04 00Z

ETS Bias

NE Corridor Domain

That’s the latest – Questions?

2hr HOT FcstAnalysis 2hr NO-HOT Fcst

850 mb Analyzed and Simulated Reflectivity

16 June 2002

Why most of the metadata are N/A?