Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen

UNECE

Group of Experts on Climate Change Impacts and

Adaptation for Transport Networks and Nodes

9th Session, Geneva, 11-12 April 2016

Landslide Losses for European Road Networks –

Integrated Cost and Risk Assessment

Dr. Martin Klose

Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt)

Section S1 – Smart Road Construction,

Renewable Energy, Climate Change

Bergisch Gladbach, Germany

Geneva, 11 April 2016 UNECE WP.5/GE.3 Meeting Slide 1 of 16

BMVI Climate Change

Research Programme

and Expert Network

Research Field 1

Adaptation of Transport Infrastructure to Climate Change and Extreme Weather

WP Flood Hazards WP Storm Hazards

WP Landslide Hazards WP Risk Analysis

WP Resilient Waterways WP Adaptation Strategies

Geneva, 11 April 2016 UNECE WP.5/GE.3 Meeting Slide 2 of 16

1. Introduction

Challenges in Risk Assessment

2. Methods and Datasets

Hazard Identification and Landslide Databases

Example Database – The Case of Germany

3. Case Studies

Historical Impact Assessments

Preliminary National Loss Estimation

4. Conclusions

Integrated Risk Assessment

Geneva, 11 April 2016 UNECE WP.5/GE.3 Meeting Slide 3 of 16

AGENDA

2014 Litochovice nad Ladem, Czech Republic Courtesy of Upvision s.r.o., Czech Republic (with permission)

See also: J. Liu et al., Science (2007)

Landslide Hazards Hazard Awareness Reciprocal Interactions

Hazard Awareness => f (frequency, timing, intensity of damage)

Intensity Threshold

Time

Lan

dsl

ide

Act

ivit

y H

azar

d A

war

enes

s

Time

Temporal

Threshold

Co

sts

Complex

System

Feedback Loops,

Time Lags, Intensity

Thresholds, Legacy

Effects

New Frameworks

Landslide Hazards and

the Temporal or Societal

Dimensions of Risk

Prevention

Temporal

Threshold

Damage

Optimum

Level of

Mitigation?

Time

1.1 Challenges in Risk Assessment

Geneva, 11 April 2016 UNECE WP.5/GE.3 Meeting Slide 5 of 16

Damage Damage

Process Mechanisms Physical Vulnerability

Sociocultural Setting

Impact Impact Costs Costs

1.1 Challenges in Risk Assessment

Translation into Economic Costs

Courtesy of B. Damm, Germany

Courtesy of B. Damm, Germany

Source: M. Klose, 2010

Geneva, 11 April 2016 UNECE WP.5/GE.3 Meeting Slide 6 of 16

$

2. Methods and Datasets

“The key to understanding

landslide hazards is to track,

record, and analyze them”

Source: M. Klose, 2014

Geneva, 11 April 2016 UNECE WP.5/GE.3 Meeting Slide 7 of 16

Source: Klose et al.,

Geomorphology (2015)

Source: Klose et al., 2015 (not published); based on data

from field surveys, web mining, satellite imagery (Google

Earth; SRTM DEM, NASA/USGS LP DAAC)

The Four Ws

Where?

When?

Why?

What?

Web Analytics and Data Mining,

Remote Sensing, Global Navigation

or Positioning, and Geographic

Information Systems (GIS)

LANDSLIDE DATABASES

2.1 Hazard Identification and Landslide Databases

Geneva, 11 April 2016 UNECE WP.5/GE.3 Meeting Slide 8 of 16

Hazard

identification

Source: Klose et al., 2015 (not published); based on

data from (a) Damm & Klose, 2015; (b) and (c)

Schönwiese, 2013; (d) Voigt, 1965; Schliephake, 2001;

(e) Eck et al., 2014; (f) Federal Agency for Civic

Education, http://www.bpb.de; Federal Statistical Office,

https://www.destatis.de; (g) Federal Statistical Office,

https://www.destatis.de

Study of landslide

interactions with

climatic factors and

land use activity

since 1850

LANDSLIDE DATABASE

OF GERMANY

Prof. Dr. Bodo Damm, University

of Vechta, Germany

2.2 Example Database – The Case of Germany

Geneva, 11 April 2016 UNECE WP.5/GE.3 Meeting Slide 9 of 16

Source: Klose et al., 2015 (not published); based on data from

Damm & Klose, 2015; Klose et al., 2015, 2016; BASIS-DLM,

LGLN Lower Saxony; SRTM DEM, NASA/USGS LP DAAC

a) Landslide Inventory Map

b) Landslide Susceptibility Map

c) Landslide Exposure Map

DATABASE APPLICATIONS

Landslide Hazard and Exposure

2.2 Example Database – The Case of Germany

Geneva, 11 April 2016 UNECE WP.5/GE.3 Meeting Slide 10 of 16

Example

Lower Saxon Uplands, NW Germany

DATABASE APPLICATIONS

Landslide Cost Modeling

2.2 Example Database – The Case of Germany

Starting Point

Landslide Database

and Hazard Maps

Event-based Cost Modeling Monetization of Past Landslide Losses

Spatial Cost Modeling Regionalization of Landslide Losses

Probabilistic Cost Modeling Prediction of Future Landslide Losses

Example Studies

Crovelli and Coe (2009), Georisk

Klose et al. (2014), Landslides

Wills et al. (2014), Nat. Hazards Rev.

1 1

2 2

3 3

Geneva, 11 April 2016 UNECE WP.5/GE.3 Meeting Slide 11 of 16

3.1 Historical Impact Assessments

Case Histories for

Federal Roads in

NW Germany

Source: Klose et al., Landslides (2016)

View of reference site

Geneva, 11 April 2016 UNECE WP.5/GE.3 Meeting Slide 12 of 16

3.2 Preliminary National Loss Estimation

National Landslide Losses Preliminary Cost Estimates

Federal Roads US$ 70–80 million (Year)

Source: M. Klose, Springer

PhD Theses (2015)

Societal Vulnerability

Dependent on:

Condition of built environment

Level of economic development

Varies with:

Social change

Increasing welfare

Economic maturity

Public Infrastructure Municipal Deficits Population Loss Erosion of historical

resilience gains

Vulnerability of ageing

infrastructures

a b c

Source: (a) Eck et al., 2014; (b) and (c) Federal

Statistical Office, https://www.destatis.de

Direct costs (Year)

~ US$ 300 million

Direct costs (Year)

~ US$ 300 million

Source: M. Klose, Springer

PhD Theses (2015)

See also Krauter, 1992

Geneva, 11 April 2016 UNECE WP.5/GE.3 Meeting Slide 13 of 16

1876 Kaub am Rhein, Germany, landslide Source: Unknown, photo from 1876 (no copyright protection)

Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen

Thank you for your attention!

Dr. Martin Klose

Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt)

Section S1 – Smart Road Construction,

Renewable Energy, Climate Change

Bergisch Gladbach, Germany

Tel: 0049 2204 43743

Fax: 0049 2204 43159

Email: Klose@bast.de

Researchgate: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Martin_Klose

Geneva, 11 April 2016 UNECE WP.5/GE.3 Meeting Slide 15 of 16

Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen

References

Geneva, 11 April 2016 UNECE WP.5/GE.3 Meeting Slide 16 of 16

Damm, B., Klose, M. (2015): The landslide database for Germany: Closing the gap at national level. Geomorphology 249, 82–93

Crovelli, R.A., Coe, J.A. (2009): Probabilistic estimation of numbers and costs of future landslides in the San Francisco Bay region.

Georisk 3, 206–223

Eck, A., Ragnitz, J., Scharfe, S., Thater, C., Wieland, B. (2014): Straßen marode, Brücken gesperrt: Eine Bestandsaufnahme zum

Thema öffentliche Infrastrukturinvestitionen in Deutschland. ifo Dresden berichtet 21(02), 15–24

Klose, M. (2015): Landslide databases as tools for integrated assessment of landslide risk. Springer Theses – Recognizing

Outstanding Ph.D. Research. Springer, Berlin, 156 pp.

Klose, M., Damm, B., Terhorst, B. (2015): Landslide cost modeling for transportation infrastructures: A methodological approach.

Landslides 12, 321–334

Klose, M., Damm, B., Highland, L.M. (2015): Databases in geohazard science: An introduction. Geomorphology 249, 1–3

Klose, M., Maurischat, P., Damm, B. (2016): Landslide impacts in Germany: A historical and socioeconomic perspective.

Landslides 13, 183–199

Krauter, E. (1992): Hangrutschungen – ein Umweltproblem. In: Matthias, H.J., Grun, A. (Hrsg.), Ingenieurvermessung 92. Beitra ge

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Voigt, F. (1965): Verkehr, Bd. II / Teil II, Die Entwicklung des Verkehrssystems. Duncker & Humblot, Berlin.

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Scho nwiese, C.-D. (2013): Klimatologie. Ulmer, Stuttgart, 489 S.

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