Land Use, Human Health and Climate Change:Convergence of Planning Problems for Michigan

David L. Skole

Center for Global Change and Earth Observations

Michigan State University

Major Questions What is health? What is sprawl? How might sprawl affect health? What is climate change? How might climate change affect

health? What are the opportunities to improve

health on both fronts?

What is health?“a state of complete physical, mental and social

well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity”

- World Health Organization

Physical health Mental health Well-being Livability

What is sprawlA pattern of urban regional development that features: Land-extensive, low density, leapfrog development Segregation of land uses Extensive road construction Architectural homogeneity Economic and racial homogeneity Shift of development and capital investment from inner

city to periphery Absence of regional planning

Suburban Development

TraditionalDevelopment

Vehicle miles increases at a time when fleet efficiency is declining and per capita autos is approaching 1-1.2 in some suburbs.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation

In the Lansing metro area, vehicle miles traveled increased by 16 percent between 1992 and 1999. Population increased by 2 percent over the same period.

5.4

5.9

6.0

6.2

4.8

5

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

1992 1995 1997 1999

Mill

ions

of

Mile

s

•Traffic congestion•Air pollution•Water and land pollution

•Heat and temperature•Loss of open space•Loss of social capital

Sprawl has had many negative consequences for health in new suburbs

The generic problem Decentralization Outer suburbs are experiencing a population

boom Suburbs garner the lion’s share of new

housing and new home owners Outer suburbs are experiencing most of the

job growth Poverty is becoming more concentrated in

urban core Urban metabolism is having an impact on the

local and global environment

Land use induced vegetation changes…

…lead to urban heat island effect.

The Grand Rapids Growth Triangle: Year 2020 projections

The Lantroit Megalopolis in 2020

How might sprawl affect health? air pollution CO2 emissions heat island effect exercise car crashes pedestrian injuries water quantity and quality mental health consequences social capital

Air Pollution sources and effects Ozone Nox Carbon monoxide Particulates Hydrocarbons Lead Sox Air toxics allergens

Produced by Automobile traffic

Ozone Health Effects The most important pollutant in urban areas Respiratory effects (ozone > PM):

Airway inflammation Decreased air flow Increased symptoms, ER visits, medication

use, hospitalizations Cardiovascular effects (PM > ozone)

Increased mortality Immune effects

Increased susceptibility to infection

Groups most susceptible Asthmatics Children The elderly Those with underlying diseases

Expanding Heat Island from greenhouse gases and surface condition changes in heat exchange and albedo

Atlanta’s Heat Island, May 11, 1997

Changes in the Heat Island from 1972 to 1993

Regional Influence of the Heat Island

Heat and Ozone

Health Consequences of Heat Heat syncope Heat edema Heat tetany Heat cramps Heat exhaustion Heat stroke

IncreasingSeverity

Chicago Heat Wave in 1995

Loss of physical activity

Population densityEmployment density

Trip distancesVehicle tripsWalking trips

Overweightobesity