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Sophie Punte
Executive Director
Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities
By 2015, the number of megacities is projected to grow to 36...
Shanghai Mumbai
Beijing
Seoul
...23 of these megacities will be located in Asia.
- World Resources Institute
Delhi
Jakarta
Tokyo
Bangkok
44 million people added to Asian cities every year
120,000 people a day
$100 billion needed per year for urban environmental infrastructure in Asia
Consequences of Rapid Urbanization?
Lack of integration between land-use planning and transport planning resulting in: • environmental pressures (air, water, land) • intense energy and fuel use • traffic congestion
home
work
play
home
Improve cooperation
among relevant government
agencies
What do cities need?
Understand the impact of urban development on energy use and emissions and
quickly identify priorities for intervention
Increase access on climate funds
and communicate to
potential investors
What do cities need?
Rapid Assessment of City Emissions Tool
Low emissions urban development
Vision for a sustainable city
Development and application of the rapid assessment for city emissions (RACE) tool in selected Asian cities covering:
Energy use in industrial, commercial, residential buildings and transport
Land use and transport integration
About the Low Emission Cities
Project
Calculates emissions from transport & buildings using top-down and bottom-up approaches
Provides flexibility on data requirements from the basic to most complicated set of data
Incorporates land-use diversity in the emissions calculations (CO2, PM, NOx)
Integrates spatial form with calculation of energy and transport emissions
Uses default values from internationally accepted literature
Visualizes results on the form of GIS maps for scenario-building
Rapid Assessment of City Emissions (RACE) Tool
Ho Chi Minh 2010
Transport (Actual)
Land Use per Building Type
Commercial Land Use per Building Type
Commercial Industrial Land Use per Building Type
Commercial Industrial Land Use per Building Type
Residential
500 x 500m GRID
Land Use Factors Affecting Transportation
Diversity of land
use
Density of population
Design of city
Distance to transit
Destination access (to
employment centers)
A TRIPS
km
S TRANSPORT
mode
I FUEL +
ELECTRICITY use
F EMISSION FACTORS
CO2
PM NOX
Calculating Emissions from Transport
Source: Schipper et al. 1999. Flexing the Link. Reducing Carbon Emissions from Transportation in Developing Countries
Activity Structure Intensity Fuel
Passenger transport emissions
Emission factor per mode and fuel per
pollutant
City public transport
mode share
Ratio of roads with public
transport in the zone
Public transport Rating/zone
City walking modeshare
Walkability rating/zone
City cycling modeshare
Cyclability rating/zone
Cycling modeshare/zone
Walking modeshare/
zone
Public transport modeshare/zone
Private transport modeshare/zone
Non-private transport
modeshare/zone
Car, 2W, other: modeshare
Fuel efficiency By mode and
fuel type
Zonal average speed
Adjusted fuel efficiency by
mode and fuel type
Population density
Distance to CBD
Area or units/ building type
ITE Trip generation rates
Trip rate normalizing
factor
Average trip length: local data
Trip distance based on density:
UITP Database
Trip generated per building
type
Ratio of residential trips to other trips
Trip internalization
Adjusted number of trips
Passenger km Average trip
length
A S
I F
Calculating Emissions from Transport
\
A FLOOR AREA
m2
S BUILDING
type
I ELECTRICITY
+ FUEL use
F EMISSION FACTORS
CO2
PM NOX
Calculating Emissions from Buildings
Source: Schipper et al. 1999. Flexing the Link. Reducing Carbon Emissions from Transportation in Developing Countries
Activity Structure Intensity Fuel
Emission factor by fuel type by pollutant type
Emissions from non-grid
electricity energy consumption per pollutant type by
building type
Heat rate per plant type
Electricity generated by
plant type
Emission factor per plant type per pollutant
Electricity grid emission factors
per type of pollutant
Area occupied by
each building type
Floor area ratio by each building type
Gross floor area per building type
Average energy consumption per building type per
“energy type”
Total non-grid electricity energy consumption by building type, by
fuel type
Total grid electricity energy consumption by
building type
Official electricity
consumption stats
Adjusted grid electricity
consumption by building type
Emissions from grid electricity
consumption per pollutant type by
building type
Emissions per Building Type
Calculating Emissions from Buildings
Summary Results of Data Calculations
• Vehicle and Passenger kms
• Fuel Consumption
• Energy Consumption
• CO2 (tons)
• PM (tons)
• NOx (tons)
• Energy and Emission
Indicators (per PKM)
• Energy and Emission
Indicators (per VKM)
• Injuries and Fatalities
• Fuel Consumption
Baseline Scenario (2011)
For buildings & transport:
• Electricity
• Fuel
• CO2
• PM
• NOx
Business-as-Usual Scenario (2030)
Alternative Development Scenario (2030)
Scenarios
Ho Chi Minh City
Ho Chi Minh City: Rapid urban growth
2000 2011
Baseline 2011: Population Distribution
Baseline 2011: 10-storey Residential Building Areas
Baseline 2011: High-Rise Residential Building Areas
Baseline 2011: Medium-Rise Residential Building Areas
Baseline 2011: Low-Rise Residential Building Areas
Baseline 2011: Residential Building Area
Baseline 2011: Large Industrial Complexes’ Building Areas
Baseline 2011: Industrial Estate’s Building Areas
Baseline 2011: Small + Medium Size Factories’ Building Areas
Baseline 2011: Industrial Building Areas
Baseline 2011: Total Building Area (m2)
46%
28%
27%
30%
Inner City
Outer Core
Suburban
Outer Suburban
Baseline 2011: HCMC Distribution of Total Building Area
60.5%
1.0%
4.1%
27.6%
6.8% Residential Buildings Mixed Use Buildings Commercial Buildings Industrial Buildings Institutional Buildings
Baseline 2011: HCMC Total Building Area
Scenarios
Baseline 2011
BAU 2030
Alternative Development 2030
Energy transport: 1.3 million TOE
Electricity: 15 million MWh
CO2 emissions transport: 4.3 million tons
CO2 emissions electricity: 6.1 million tons
Energy: +% CO2 emissions: +%
Energy: +% CO2 emissions: +%
What investments are needed?
For low emission urban development, investments must be directed towards helping cities address the root cause of transport and land use problems rather than their symptoms
Encourage mixed land-use development to reduce motorized trips and trip lengths
Increase investments in public transport systems
Improve non-motorized transport infrastructure (e.g., biking paths, pedestrian sidewalks)
Invest and/or prioritize cleaner energy sources
Encourage energy-efficient buildings
Next Steps
Integrating land use and transport planning is a must for low emission urban development!
Steps 1 and 2 need not take years to do. Applying a rapid assessment tools such as RACE entails –
• 3 to 4 months of
work
• investment of
about US $80,000
1. Determine land use characteristics (current & land use)
2. Calculate transport emissions based on land use
3. Plan for integrated land use and transport measures (e.g., promote mixed land use, increase public transport, improved NMT infrastructure)
4. Communicate this visually (using GIS maps) to stakeholders
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