The Scottish Parliament and Scottish Parliament Infor mation C entre l ogos .

Financial Scrutiny Unit Briefing

Labour Market update: November 2015

12 November 2015

15/73

Andrew Aiton

A briefing on the Office for National Statistics' November 2015 Regional Labour Market release for Scotland. The way claimant count statistics are defined has changed. The new headline figures include all out of work Universal Credit claimants.

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CONTENTS

OVERVIEW OF THIS QUARTER’S STATISTICS: JUL T0 SEP 2015 ....................................................................... 3

SCOTTISH LABOUR MARKET DASHBOARD: JUL T0 AUG 2015 .......................................................................... 3

LABOUR FORCE SURVEY ......................................................................................................................................... 4

UNEMPLOYMENT ................................................................................................................................................... 4 EMPLOYMENT ........................................................................................................................................................ 5 ECONOMIC INACTIVITY ......................................................................................................................................... 6

CLAIMANT COUNT ..................................................................................................................................................... 7

CONSTITUENCY DATA: UNEMPLOYMENT ............................................................................................................. 8

GUEST INDICATOR: EMPLOYMENT ...................................................................................................................... 13

SOURCES .................................................................................................................................................................. 15

RELATED BRIEFINGS .............................................................................................................................................. 16

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OVERVIEW OF THIS QUARTER’S STATISTICS: JUL T0 SEP 2015

Over the quarter Scotland saw an increase in the unemployment rate while the UK as a whole saw a decrease. The Scottish employment rate remained unchanged while the UK rate increased to the highest rate since records began in 1971. However the Scottish employment rate is still higher than the UK by 0.4 percentage point.

SCOTTISH LABOUR MARKET DASHBOARD: JUL T0 AUG 2015

Overall Male Female

Rate (%)

Change on prev Qtr (%

points)

Rate (%)

Change on prev Qtr (%

points)

Rate (%)

Change on prev Qtr (%

points)

6.0% 6.4% 5.6%

+0.4 +0.1 +0.6

74.1% 77.2% 71.1%

0.0 +0.9 -0.9

21.1% 17.4% 24.6%

-0.3 -1.0 +0.4

Rate (%)

Change on prev Month (% points)

2.3%

0.0

*All figures are seasonally adjusted.

Unemployment

Employment

Economic

Inactivity

Claimant

Count

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LABOUR FORCE SURVEY

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) records the official unemployment rate along with a wide variety of other labour market statistics. It surveys a sample group of 60,000 households throughout the UK, including around 6,000 in Scotland. LFS figures for the whole population are estimates based on this sample.

UNEMPLOYMENT

International Labour Organisation’s definition

Level: Any individual aged 16 and over without a job who has been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and is available to start work within the next two weeks

Rate: Number of unemployed individuals as a proportion of the total number of economically active people, which includes both the unemployed and those in work.

Scotland and UK comparison

The number of unemployed people in the Scotland rose by 11,000 over the quarter and 2,000 over the year. The UK saw decreases over both the quarter and the year.

The unemployment rate in Scotland increased over the quarter and year while the UK saw decreases over both the quarter and the year

Table 1 Unemployment (16+)

Seasonally Adjusted

Level (thousands)

Quarter change (thousands)

Year change (thousands)

Rate Quarter change (% points)

Year change (% points)

Scotland 166 +11 +2 6.0% +0.4 +0.1

UK 1,749 -103 -210 5.3% -0.3 -0.7

Unemployment by Gender

Over the quarter in Scotland the unemployment level was driven by an extra 9,000 unemployed women.

The unemployment rates for men and women in Scotland are higher than the UK.

Table 2 Unemployment by Gender (16+ )

Seasonally Adjusted

Level (thousands)

Quarter change (thousands)

Year change (thousands)

Rate

Quarter change (% points)

Year change (% points)

Scotland Men 91 +2 -8 6.4% +0.1 -0.6

Women 75 +9 +10 5.6% +0.6 +0.7

UK Men 957 -58 -130 5.4% -0.3 -0.8

Women 793 -45 -80 5.1% -0.3 -0.6

Unemployment

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Unemployment by Age

The unemployment rate for 16-24 year-olds in Scotland has decreased by 3.6 percentage points over the year and is now the lowest it has been since 2008 (12.4% Jul-Sep 2008)

Table 3 Unemployment rates by age

Not Seasonally Adjusted

16- 24 25 - 34 35 - 49 50 - 64

Rate Year

change (% points)

Rate Year

change (% points)

Rate Year

change (% points)

Rate Year

change (% points)

Scotland1 14.9% -3.6 6.3% +0.9 4.1% +0.8 4.5% +0.5

UK 15.3% -2.2 5.0% -0.5 3.6% -0.5 3.5% -0.2

EMPLOYMENT

International Labour Organisation’s definition:

Level: Any individual aged 16 and over who is undertaking one hour or more a week of paid work Rate: Number of people in employment expressed as a percentage of all people aged 16-64

Scotland and UK comparison

The number of people aged 16 and over in employment in Scotland increased by 3,000 compared to the previous quarter.

The employment rate in Scotland was unchanged from the previous quarter while the UK saw an increase of 0.3 percentage points.

The UK employment rate is the highest since comparable records began in 1971 (ONS 2015a).

Table 4 Employment (Level 16+, rate 16-64)

Seasonally Adjusted

Level

(thousands)

Quarter change

(thousands)

Year change (thousands)

Rate Quarter change

(% points)

Year change (% points)

Scotland 2,614 +3 +9 74.1% 0.0 +0.3

UK 31,211 +177 +419 73.7% +0.3 +0.7

Employment by Gender

Employment levels and rates are higher for men than for women at both Scottish and UK levels.

In Scotland the increase in the level of employment over the quarter was driven by 12,000 men entering employment.

However the number of women in work in Scotland fell over both the quarter and year.

At the UK level the increase in employment was mainly due to a 107,000 increase in the number of men in employment while the

1 These statistics on unemployment by age are not of sufficient quality to be published by the ONS as National

Statistics and are published as experimental statistics

16+16-64

Employment

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number of women in employment increased by 69,000.

The Scottish employment rate for men is lower than the UK while the rate for women is higher than the UK.

Table 5 Employment by Gender (Level 16+, rate 16-64) Seasonally Adjusted

Level (thousands)

Quarter change (thousands)

Year change (thousands)

Rate

Quarter change (% points)

Year change (% points)

Scotland Men 1,337 +12 +14 77.2% +0.9 +0.7

Women 1,277 -10 -5 71.1% -0.9 0.0

UK Men 16,607 +107 +218 78.5% +0.4 +0.6

Women 14,605 +69 +200 69.0% +0.3 +0.9

Employment by Age

The employment rate for 16-24 year-olds in Scotland has increased by 4.8 percentage points over the year and is the highest since 2008. (Jul-Sep 2008 63.2)

Table 6 Employment rates by age

Not Seasonally Adjusted

16- 24 25 - 34 35 - 49 50 - 64

Rate Year

change (% points)

Rate Year

change (% points)

Rate Year

change (% points)

Rate Year

change (% points)

Scotland2 63.1% +6.3 81.6% -1.3 81.5% -2.1 68.7% +0.1

UK 56.2% +2.4 81.3% +0.8 83.1% -0.3 69.6% +0.8

ECONOMIC INACTIVITY

International Labour Organisation’s definition:

Level: Any individual aged 16 to 64 who is not in employment and has not looked for work in the last four weeks and is unable to start work within the next two weeks.

Rate: Number of people economically inactive expressed as a percentage of all people aged 16-64

Scotland and UK comparison

The economic inactivity rate for Scotland fell over both the quarter and the year.

The Scottish economic inactivity rate is lower than the UK.

2 These statistics on employment by age are not of sufficient quality to be published by the ONS as National

Statistics and are published as experimental statistics

16+16-64

Economic

Inactivity

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Table 7 Inactivity (16-64)

Seasonally Adjusted

Level (thousands)

Quarter change (thousands)

Year change (thousands)

Rate Quarter change (% points)

Year change (% points)

Scotland 720 -11 -13 21.1% -0.3 -0.4

UK 8,968 -22 -62 22.0% -0.1 -0.2

Economic Inactivity by Gender

Economic inactivity rates are higher for women than for men.

The decrease in economic inactivity over the quarter is mainly due to the decrease in the number of economically inactive men.

In Scotland over the year the number of economically inactive women has decreased by 10,000 with the number of economically inactive men decreasing by 2,000.

The Scottish economic inactivity rate for men is higher than the UK while the rate for women in Scotland is lower than the UK.

Table 8 Economic Inactivity by Gender (16-64) Seasonally Adjusted

Level (thousands)

Quarter change (thousands)

Year change (thousands)

Rate

Quarter change (% points)

Year change (% points)

Scotland Men 290 -17 -2 17.4% -1.0 -0.1

Women 429 +6 -10 24.6% +0.4 -0.6

UK Men 3,398 -12 +27 16.8% -0.1 +0.1

Women 5,570 -10 -89 27.2% -0.1 -0.5

CLAIMANT COUNT

Due to the roll out of Universal Credit the way Claimant Count figures are recorded has changed.

The Claimant Count figures presented here are the experimental statistics from the ONS for Jobseekers Allowance plus Universal Credit claimants who are out of work.

This is not an official measure of unemployment but does provide accurate information on the labour market at a local level.

Scotland and UK comparison – (including out of work Universal Credit claimants)

The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate for October in Scotland was unchanged from September.

The UK seasonally adjusted claimant count for July was unchanged from August.

The Scottish claimant count rate is higher than the UK rate.

Claimant

Count

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Table 9 Claimant Count, September 2015 (including out of work Universal Credit claimants) (16-64)

Seasonally Adjusted

Level Month change Year change Rate Month change

(% points)

Year change (% points)

Scotland 79,100 +100 -10,300 2.3% 0.0 -0.3

UK 795,500 +3,300 -139,100 1.9% 0.0 -0.4

*Data rounded to nearest 100

CONSTITUENCY DATA: UNEMPLOYMENT

Constituency data for Scotland comes from the Annual Population Survey (APS). The APS datasets are produced quarterly, with each dataset containing 12 months of data. The latest APS data covers Jul 2014-Jun 2015. This month focuses on unemployment by constituency. Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn has the highest level of unemployment at 13.4% while Aberdeenshire West has the lowest at 2.1%. The are with the largest increase across the year was Glasgow Southside while Glasgow Kelvin saw the biggest decrease.

Table 10: Unemployment by Parliamentary Constituency

Jul 2014-Jun 2015 Annual Change

Number Rate

Rank (1=highest

Rate) Number

Rate (% points)

Aberdeen Central 2,300 3.8 55 500 -0.1

Aberdeen Donside 1,200 2.9 66 -2,200 -4

Aberdeen South and North Kincardine

2,100 5.6 38 300 1.2

Aberdeenshire East 1,600 3.2 63 -100 -1.2

Aberdeenshire West 1,000 2.1 71 -1,700 -3.3

Airdrie and Shotts 3,300 8.9 10 -1,900 -4.5

Almond Valley 3,100 7.2 21 100 0.4

Angus North and Mearns

2,200 5.9 34 1,000 2.7

Angus South 1,800 5.3 41 -1,300 -3.3

Argyll and Bute 1,200 4.5 49 -300 -0.8

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Jul 2014-Jun 2015 Annual Change

Number Rate

Rank (1=highest

Rate) Number

Rate (% points)

Ayr 3,000 8.3 13 200 1.1

Banffshire and Buchan Coast

1,200 3.9 54 -500 -0.7

Caithness, Sutherland and Ross

1,300 4.2 52 -1,400 -4

Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley

2,100 5.5 39 -1,600 -4.4

Clackmannanshire and Dunblane

1,300 4.3 51 -2,300 -6.3

Clydebank and Milngavie

3,300 8.8 11 600 0.1

Clydesdale 1,300 3.2 63 -600 -1.7

Coatbridge and Chryston

2,000 6.1 30 -1,200 -2.9

Cowdenbeath 2,900 6.6 27 -1,000 -4.4

Cumbernauld and Kilsyth

3,600 10.5 6 2,300 6.2

Cunninghame North 3,700 11.6 3 1,100 1.9

Cunninghame South 2,700 8.5 12 -600 -0.4

Dumbarton 1,700 4.6 48 -800 -2.1

Dumfriesshire 1,400 3.6 58 100 -0.2

Dundee City East 2,400 7.1 22 -1,200 -3.8

Dundee City West 3,500 9.8 8 -1,400 -3.4

Dunfermline 1,500 3.6 58 300 0.7

East Kilbride 2,700 6.9 26 1,100 2.8

East Lothian 2,100 5.3 41 300 0.8

Eastwood 1,200 3.6 58 -700 -1.9

Edinburgh Central 1,100 2.6 68 -2,000 -4.7

Edinburgh Eastern 1,300 3.2 63 -2,700 -7

Edinburgh Northern and Leith

2,100 4.2 52 -800 -1.3

Edinburgh Pentlands 1,800 4.9 45 -1,300 -2.5

Edinburgh Southern N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Edinburgh Western 2,400 5.2 44 N/A N/A

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Jul 2014-Jun 2015 Annual Change

Number Rate

Rank (1=highest

Rate) Number

Rate (% points)

Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire

1,000 2.8 67 -200 -0.4

Falkirk East 3,200 7.4 18 900 2

Falkirk West 2,700 7.0 24 -400 -1.2

Galloway and West Dumfries

2,300 6.6 27 -400 -0.6

Glasgow Anniesland 2,600 7.7 17 -900 -0.7

Glasgow Cathcart 5,900 11.6 3 700 1.6

Glasgow Kelvin 2,500 6.0 31 -3,200 -10.4

Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn

3,300 13.4 1 N/A N/A

Glasgow Pollok 4,200 8.3 13 -900 -5.6

Glasgow Provan 3,700 11.9 2 -100 -1.4

Glasgow Shettleston 2,900 10.3 7 -1,200 0.1

Glasgow Southside 3,900 11.5 5 2,000 6.3

Greenock and Inverclyde

2,600 7.4 18 0 0.3

Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse

2,100 5.3 41 -1,800 -5.7

Inverness and Nairn 1,300 2.2 70 -2,100 -3.9

Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley

3,300 7.9 16 -2,300 -5.4

Kirkcaldy 2,700 7.3 20 0 0.3

Linlithgow 2,800 5.7 37 -600 -1.2

Mid Fife and Glenrothes 2,900 9.2 9 -300 -0.9

Midlothian North and Musselburgh

2,300 5.5 39 -600 -2.1

Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale

1,800 4.9 45 500 1.3

Moray 2,400 6.0 31 300 0.8

Motherwell and Wishaw 2,100 5.9 34 -2,200 -5.1

Na h-Eileanan an Iar 1,100 8.2 15 200 2

North East Fife 1,600 4.9 45 100 0.7

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Jul 2014-Jun 2015 Annual Change

Number Rate

Rank (1=highest

Rate) Number

Rate (% points)

Orkney Islands N/A 2.5 69 N/A 0

Paisley 2,400 6.0 31 -600 -2.7

Perthshire North 2,400 6.3 29 500 1.3

Perthshire South and Kinrossshire

1,300 3.3 62 -800 -2.2

Renfrewshire North and West

1,300 3.8 55 -900 -2.5

Renfrewshire South 1,800 5.9 34 -1,400 -3.2

Rutherglen 2,600 7.1 22 -1,100 -2.3

Shetland Islands N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch

1,300 3.5 61 0 -0.3

Stirling 1,500 3.7 57 -1,100 -3.5

Strathkelvin and Bearsden

1,600 4.5 49 -400 -0.7

Uddingston and Bellshill 3,000 7.0 24 100 -0.3

Scotland 161,000 5.9 -33,200 -1.2

Please note that some data is unavailable as the areas samples size is too small to provide reliable estimates.

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Fig 1: Constituency data map

Unemployment rateJul 2014-Jun 2015

No data

Between 2.1% and 4.6%

Between 4.6% and 6.6%

Between 6.6% and 9.2%

Between 9.2% and 13.4%

Based on OS material with the permission of OS. SPCB 10039291

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GUEST INDICATOR: EMPLOYMENT

Employment levels have returned to pre-recession levels. However the profile of those in employment has changed since 2008. The proportion of people who are in employment and aged 50 or over has increased from 27% to 32% between Jul 2007-Jun 2008 and Jul 2007-Jun 2008.

Fig 2: Proportion of people in Employment by age

Source: nomis

There are now an extra 110,000 people aged 50 and over in employment in Scotland compared to 2008. This represents a 16% increase in the number of people aged 50 and over in employment which is slightly lower that the UK (18%). Looking at the increase in Scotland in more detail shows that 64% (70,200) of the increase are women with 56% of women in full-time employment.

Fig 3: Increase in people aged 50 and over in work by gender and working pattern between Jul 2007-Jun 2008 and Jul 2014-Jun 2015.

Source: nomis

Overall there are an extra 600 20-24 year olds in employment. However there has been a decrease of 9,400 males’ in employment with an extra 10,800 females in employment. Looking at the breakdown there has been a decrease of 7,000 females in full-time employment with an extra 17,800 females in part-time employment.

4%

5%

10%

10%

58%

60%

32%

27%

Jul 2014-Jun2015

Jul 2007-Jun2008

Aged 16 - 19 Aged 20 - 24 Aged 25 - 49 Aged 50 +

38,900 26,400

31,100

12,800

70,200

39,600

Female Male

Part-time

Full-time

Total

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Fig 4: Increase in people aged 16-24 in work by gender and working pattern between Jul 2007-Jun 2008 and Jul 2014-Jun 2015.

Source: nomis

The banking, finance and insurance industry has seen the biggest increase in the number people in employment while the construction industry has seen the biggest decrease.

Fig 5: Change in levels of employment between Jul 2007-Jun 2008 and Jul 2014-Jun 2015 by industry

Source: nomis

-7,000

-16,200

17,800

6,100

10,800

-10,100

Female Male

Part-time

Full-time

70,700

29,500

20,600

20,000

3,500

-2,900

-15,300

-51,900

-55,000

Banking, finance and insurance

Distribution, hotels and restaurants

Other services

Energy and water

Public admin. education and health

Agriculture and fishing

Transport and communications

Manufacturing

Construction

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SOURCES

Nomis, Claimant count, [Online]. Available at: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/articles/894.aspx [Accessed 11 November 2015] Office for National Statistics. (2015a) Labour Market Statistics, November 2015 [Online]. Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/november-2015/index.html [Accessed 11 November 2015] Office for National Statistics. (2015b) Regional Labour Market Statistics, November 2015 [Online]. Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnational-labour/regional-labour-market-statistics/november-2015/index.html [Accessed 11 November 2015] Office for National Statistics. (2015c) Claimant Count [Online]. Available at: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/ [Accessed 11 November 2015]

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RELATED BRIEFINGS

SB 15-57 Labour Market October 2015 update

SB 13-80 Labour Market Statistics

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