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LAREVOLUCIÓNDELGASNATURAL
11April2019
Menelaos (Mel)YdreosExecutiveDirector,PublicAffairs
PresentationAgenda
2018Demand,SupplyandInfrastructureDevelopments
IGU2019WorldLNGReport
SecurityofSupplyandFlexibility
Transportation– CNG,LNG&LNGBunkering
Top Observations from 2018 Demand & Prices
Henry Hub annual 2018 average price closes at
$3.16 mmBt, up from $2.99 mmBtu in 2017;
Currently at ~ $2.73 mmBtu
LNG Freight rates reach a record high above $195,000 USD/day in November.
Currently at ~ $ 70,000 USD/day
Chinese demand jumped 150 percent between 2017 and 2018, over half of the global gas demand increase
Asian LNG Spot prices spike to a 4-year high for
the October 2018 delivery in Asia at $11.40 per
mmBtu;
Currently at ~ $4.50 mmBtu
European Monthly Spot price increases in 2018 and peaks at
$9.52 mmBtu in September;
Currently at ~ $4.50 mmBtu
Asia leads global LNG demand, with Japan, S. Korea, China importing over half of the world’s LNG.
China becomes the largest natural gas importer.
Prelude, the world’s largest FLNG platform becomes
operational, making Australia the largest LNG exporter,
surpassing Qatar for the first time.
The US nearly doubled its LNG
exports, well on the way to reaching 60
mmtpa by the end of 2019
Yamal LNG reached full capacity (16.5 mmtpa) in December, under budget
and well ahead of schedule.
Progress on major pipeline projects: TAP, TANAP scheduled for 2020; Power of Siberia –near complete; Nordstream 2 –scheduled for end of 2019.
InSeptemberChinaimposesa10%tariff onUSLNG.
First major LNG FID, since 2015, was taken – LNG Canada.
Top Observations from 2018 Supply & Infrastructure
2019 World LNG Report www.igu.org/LNG
LNG Trade sets a Record for the Fifth Consecutive Year
Joined the club ofLNG exporterswith the world’ssecond floatingliquefaction project
Cameroon
Two new markets beganreceiving LNG supply in 2018
Bangladeshand Panama
LNG import growth in 2018 was driven by China and South Korea,the world’s second- and third-largest LNG importers.
of the increasein net trade
Represented nearly
80%Combinedincrementalgrowth of 22.2MT
Australia led allexporters in
incrementalgrowth
Increased by
28.2MTSetting a newannual record of
316.5MT
5thconsecutive yearof incremental growth
3rdlargest annualincrease ever(behind only 2010and 2017)
LNG Trade sets a Record for the Fifth Consecutive Year
Spot charter rates for a modernfuel-efficient tanker averaged$76,000/day for the firsttwo months of the year, an
81% YOY increase
Spot charter rates in Q4 2018peaked at an all-time high of
$195,500/dayand averaged
$150,000/day
This was short-lived and spot charterrates had returned to around
$74,000/dayby January 2019
Spot charter rates tapered offduring the spring and summermonths, averaging
$56,000/day
525LNG VesselsAt end-2018
5,119Trade voyagesIn 2018
Global LNG Fleet
+53Conventional carriers added
to the global fleet in 2018
Propulsion systems
41%Active vessels with DFDE/TFDE,
ME-GI, or XDF propulsion systems
Charter Market
Steam $53,400TFDE/DFDE $85,500
Average spot charter rateper day in 2018
Orderbook Growth
+52Conventional carriers
ordered in 2017
Growth in LNG Trade Enhances Security of Supply
4PVSDF������-/(�'MPXT
Growth in LNG Trade Enhances Security of Supply
4PVSDF�������-/(�'MPXT
Growth in Trade Enhances Security of Supply
EnablingGasSupplySecuritythroughthedevelopmentofenhancednetworksandinfrastructure,moreflexiblecommercial
models,andnewmodularaccess-enablingtechnologies
Critical Elements for Enhancement of Security of Supply:
• Increasing of Gas Supply Globally
• Sufficient availability and supply orders for LNG carrying vessels
• Sufficient availability of storage and infrastructure connectivity
• Continued development of midstream secondary markets and flexibility of contracting
• Prudent Investment Policies and Long-term Planning Decisions
Innovation and Growth in Trade Enhances Security of SupplySupportstheintegrationofdailyandseasonalrenewables
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18
TemperatureLNGimportstn/month CoolingsecurityinKuwait
AtlantcBasin MiddleEast PacificBasin Temperature◦C
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
Demand(TWh/d) HeatingsecurityintheUK
Powerdemand Gasheatingdemand
Source:NationalGrid Source:IHSMarkit
Innovation and Growth in Trade Enhances Security of Supply
Supportstheintegrationofdailyandseasonalrenewables
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
LNGse
ndoutm
cm/h
Powergen
eration(GWh)
SupportsdailypowergenerationinSpain
Wind Solar LNGsendout(nm3)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
LNGim
ports(mcm
)
Powergen
eration(M
Wh)
BacksupseasonalhydroinBrazil
LNGimports Gasgeneration Hydrogeneration
Source:IHSMarkit,WeatherChannelSource:Naturgy,Enagas
Unpredictable Demand Impacts Reliability, Drives Hidden Costs300MW Chasing Wind – Location: Western US Unit: Coal-Fired (CE)
Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday
Recent impact of wind on load profile of a 305MW coalunitThursday Wednesday
Pre-wind Post-wind
320MW
250MW
180MW
Source Ovation. © 2018 IHS Markit®.
CNG Vehicle Market Share by Region and CNG cars per station
NaturalGasVehicles: 26,455,793
NaturalGasFuelingStations: 31,246
ASustainableFuture– Poweredby Gas 4
China LNG fuelled heavy-duty transport Europe LNG fuelled heavy-duty transport
0
6.7 MT of LNG consumed in China for road transport in 2018
2,552 LNG fuelstations in 2018
1532
4000
5,500600050004000300020001000
02016 2017 2018
280,000 LNGtrucksexpected by 2030
155 LNG fuel stationsin 2018
BioLNG EuroNet is building 39 LNG stations, 2000 LNG trucks and a BioLNG production plant
Source : Shell analysis of Woodmac, SCI, and NGVA data
200
100
400
300
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
LNG HD trucks
000s of vehicles
LNG busesNumber of vehicles
Source : Shell
LNG for Heavy-Duty Vehicles is Growing Rapidly in China and Europe
Argentina - Virtual Pipelines can reshape gas-to-power projects
Source:Galileo Source:Galileo
Current Uptake of Alternative Fuels Technologies in Shipping
137VesselsontheOrderBook
0
20
10
30
50
40
60
Car
/pas
seng
erfe
rry
Oil/
chem
ical
tank
er
Cru
isesh
ip
PSV
Con
tain
ersh
ip
Gas
carri
er
Spec
ializ
edve
ssel
Tug
RoP
ax
Gen
eral
carg
o
Bulk
ship
Ro-
Ro
Patro
lves
sel
Car
carri
er
HSL
C
IN OPERATION
ON ORDER
Source: DNV GL, 2018
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
IN OPERATION
ON ORDER
LNG READY
LNG for Marine is Growing Virtually zero SOx & PM, 80% less NOx, 21% less GHG
126VesselsinOperation
Enabling Clean Marine Transport via LNG
Regulatory Commercial Technical Cultural
• Regulatory regimes not aligned
• Inter and Cross-Jurisdiction Gaps in Emissions Controls
• Lacking Policy Certainty
• Hard to Access Financing
• Diffuse Benefits not aligned with Costs
• Resale Value Uncertainty
• Future Price Uncertainty
• Bunkering access
• First mover “tax”
• Space, Range, Efficiency
• Industry Resistance to change
• Regulate Pollution & Price Externalities
• Improve access to credit for marine LNG projects
• Fund innovation, demonstration, and data collection projects
• Help de-risk technologies
• Will be addressed through the other listed measures
q Lead the harmonization global emissions regulations, especially for the developing world.*
q Find and Eliminate Gaps in Domestic Regimes
q Enable credit access
q Supplement traditional financing / de-risk share
q Provide de-risking funding for technology innovation and unique bunkering investment
Barrier
Solutio
nG2
0Options
Gracias