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GRAMMAR IN THE SCRIPT
MASSIVE METEOR OUTBURST IN AD 531 POSSIBLY NOTED AT CARACOL,
BELIZE by Hutch Kinsman, ([email protected]) The author and
astronomer David Asher 1 have performed high-speed computer
integrations analyzing years within the Maya Classic Period where
outbursts of the Eta Aquariid (ETA) meteor shower may have occurred
on or close to specific Long Count dates within those years.2 The
Maya may have associated those ETA outbursts with specific events
recorded in the hieroglyphic script. Previously there had been no
scientific attempts to correlate any meteor showers with any
specific dates in the Maya corpus. The most extreme outburst that
occurred during the Maya Classic Period (AD 250-909) likely
occurred on the morning of April 10, 531, and was actually composed
of three separate outbursts whose peaks occurred at local times of
02:42 AM, 03:05 AM and 04:39 AM (08:42 UT, 09:05 UT and 10:39 UT
respectively). Four3 days later, on April 14, 9.4.16.13.3, 4 Ak'bal
16 Pohp, the royal accession of K'an I was recorded on Stela 15 at
the site of Caracol. History There are no records of ancient
peoples in the New World (before contact with the Spanish in the
1500's) recording specific dates of occurrences of meteor showers,
unlike cultures such as in China, Korea, Japan or Europe. Hagar
(1931) wrote that prior to the Spanish arrival in Mexico, the
Mexicans commemorated falling stars or "Tzontemocque or Falling
Hairs" with the annual celebration of the festival known as
Quecholli. He claimed that the falling figures found in the Borgia
and Vaticanus 3773 and other codices represented meteor showers,
possibly the Leonids and the Taurids (Vaticanus-3773). In the codex
Telleriano-Remensis Köhler noted that the Aztecs recorded a meteor
in 1489 on page 39V (2002:4; see also Taube, 2000:287-290). Trenary
found a possible recording of a Leonid shower date, within a few
days of 709 October 28, that occurs on Lintel 24 at Yaxchilan by
using a one day shift for every 71 years of the Earth's axis
precession (1987-1988:112,113). The actual date of that shower may
have occurred, however, about 2-3 weeks earlier than October 28 due
to the precession additionally of the Leonid orbits themselves
(Ahn, 2005). The author found that cognate almanacs in the Dresden
and Madrid codices may have
1 Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, UK. 2
Presentation at the 2016 International Meteoroids Conference,
European Space Agency, Noordwijk, Netherlands, June 7, 2016;
Kinsman and Asher, in press, Planetary and Space Science,
abbreviated "in press" as a reference within this paper). 3 April
14 corresponds to a correlation constant of 584286; although a
correlation constant of 584283 would mean the accession occurred on
April 11, one day following the outburst, other data compiled so
far by the authors favor 584286 (Martin and Skidmore [2012],
Kennett et al. [2013]); all dates are in the Julian Calendar.
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recorded outbursts of the Perseid meteor shower in AD 933 and
775 (2014b:98, Figure 5). Since the Maya (and other New World
cultures) seemed to have been concerned with astronomical events
within our solar system that focused on the Sun, Moon and planets
that affected crucial activities such as agriculture and religious
rites (see for instance Milbrath, 1999:Chapters 1-6; Aveni, 2001),
there is very little information in ancient Maya literature
concerning sidereal--relative to the stars--issues such as the
zodiac, comets, supernovae, meteors and meteor showers (for example
see Milbrath, 1999:249-293, Chaper 7; Aveni, 2001:82-91, 95,
200-205). Methodology There are four named4 meteor showers seen
today that were likely observed during the Maya Classic Period: the
Lyrids, Eta Aquariids, Orionids and Perseids (see Kinsman,
2014b:91, 92, Figure 4); of these four, the Eta Aquariids presents
itself as a productive shower for investigation due to the close
proximity of its parent Comet Halley to Earth’s orbit during the
mid-Classic period (see Figure 1) and the fact that Halley’s
orbital parameters are well known back to 1404 BC (Yeomans and
Kiang, 1981). Several of Comet Halley’s immediate orbits after
perihelion (point of closest passage to Sun) previous to and around
AD 530 passed very close to Earth's orbit (known as the descending
node, where on the downward path the comet cuts through the plane
of Earth’s orbit). When Halley is close to Earth’s orbit, it
follows that the stream of particles ejected by Halley will also be
close to Earth’s orbit, as described below. That the stream of
ejected particles is immediately close to the Earth’s orbit is
conducive to particles having a good chance of impacting Earth, as
our model shows (in press). Halley passes outside of Earth's orbit
by about 0.3 au5 at the ascending node (where the comet’s upward
path cuts through plane of the Earth's orbit) on its way toward
perihelion. See figure one.
4 Annual showers recorded in ancient literature and
possibly observed during the Classic Period however apparently not
seen today are numbered in Jenniskens (2006:598-611, Table 1) and
lettered in Imoto and Hasegawa (1958:134-140, Tables 1 and 2). 5
One au, known as an "Astronomical Unit" is the average distance of
the Earth to the Sun, about 150,000,000 kilometers.
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Figure 1. Orbit of Comet Halley in AD 530 (courtesy of D. J.
Asher). Particles of the parent comet stream off when the comet
approaches and is heated by the sun: in our model particles (which
become meteoroids6) were ejected in the positive and negative
tangential directions at the time of perihelion passage. Knowing
the exact time that the particles are ejected is critical to the
accurate results of the model of the resulting meteoroid stream; to
this end, the orbits for the time of Halley's (known as comet 1P)
perihelion passage were extracted from Yeomans and Kiang, who use a
combination of ancient Chinese observations and computer-corrected
observations (1981: table 4) to determine the time and distance of
each of Halley’s passages. After ejection, the particles then
generally follow the same orbit as that of the comet; individual
particles are subjected to continuing gravitational effects
(perturbations) of all eight planets and radiation pressure of the
sun; initial positions of eight planets were obtained from JPL
Horizons (Giorgini et al., 1996). The computations used the RADAU
algorithm (Everhart, 1985) implemented in the MERCURY integrator7
(Chambers, 1999).
6 meteoroids--particles in space prior
to entering Earth's atmosphere, at which time they are known as
meteors. 7 The integrator program (the Mercury package) is designed
to solve problems in orbital mechanics involving the gravitational
forces of massive bodies such as the Sun, planets and much smaller
bodies such as comets, asteroids and meteoroids; the algorithm
(RADAU in our case) resolves how dynamical steps are utilized in
these computations.
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After ejection particles begin as a cluster and then gradually
spread out due to differential initial particle ejection speeds8 as
the number of orbits of the cluster increase (Asher, D. J.,
2000:11,12, figure 4; McNaught and Asher, 1999:92). Therefore,
under normal conditions, the previous revolutions of the comet most
recent to the year of examination can produce the densest cluster
of particles and thus the most intense outbursts. The greater the
number of orbits of the cluster of particles, the more the
particles spread out, and thus the lower the intensity of an
outburst as the particles spread out during an intercept with
Earth. Occasionally, however, particles get trapped in clusters for
upwards of a few thousand years in a condition known as resonance
(discussed further in a future article) and thus an outburst of
meteors may easily occur in the Classic Period due to a passage of
Halley as far back as 1404 BC9 or even earlier. The critical
parameters for producing an outburst are measured in 3-dimensional
space (Asher, 2000; McNaught and Asher, 1999) and are: (1) the
distance from the Sun of the particle cluster when passing through
Earth's orbital plane (ecliptic) compared to the distance of the
Earth from the Sun (miss distance—the closer to zero, the more
intense the outburst) measured in astronomical units (au), the
position of Earth in its orbit equal to the position of the cluster
in space along Earth’s orbit (solar longitudes10 are equal), and
the cluster of particles in its own orbit intersects the Earth in
its orbit (along-trail positioning). The typical process of
computation began with choosing a Classic Maya year such as AD 531
where a date had been recorded in the inscriptions during the month
of April and then designating a number of orbits that Comet
Halley11 would have completed prior to that particular year. For
instance three revolutions of the Comet would mean that the Mercury
program would initiate the ejection of particles at Halley's
perihelion passage in AD 295; four revolutions of the Comet would
mean the particles would have been ejected at the passage in AD
218, five revolutions at the passage in 141 and so forth until 26
revolutions of the Comet would mean those particles under
examination in 531 would have been ejected in 1404 BC. At our
particle ejection speeds (in opposing tangential directions) the
size of the orbit (measured as the semi-major axis a of the
ellipse, i.e. half of the length of the long axis of the ellipse)
of the particles would be up to approximately 3 au smaller and
larger than Halley's orbit (about 18 au, the approximate length of
the semi-major axis). Meteor outbursts come from a separate
grouping of particles than make up the normal stream of meteoroids
(particles) that produce an annual (sidereal, i.e, in relation to
the stars) shower. The first ETA was observed in 74 BC by the
Chinese
8 ejection parameters depend on particle size
(0.1 to 0.5 cm radius), density (set at one gram per cc) and the
assumed radius of the Comet Halley (4 km [Whipple, 1951]). 9
Halley's comet was perturbed by a close passage to Earth in 1404
BC, thus although its orbit is well known after this passage, the
orbit is undetermined prior to the 1404 BC passage (see Yeomans and
Kiang, 1981). 10 Solar longitude can simplistically be thought of
as a point measured in degrees on a 360 degree circle--the Earth's
orbit (with a known zero degree reference point) about the sun. For
a detailed explanation see for instance Jenniskens (2006:159,
Figure 11.4). 11 Halley made its closest passages to the Sun (prior
to AD 1000) in AD 989, 912, 837, 760, 684, 607, 530, 451, 374, 295,
218, 141, 66, 12BC, 87BC, 164BC, 240BC, 315BC, 391BC, 466BC, 540BC,
616BC, 690BC, 763BC, 836BC, 911BC, 986BC, 1059BC, 1129BC, 1198BC,
1266BC, 1334BC, and 1404 BC. Unknown prior to 1404 BC. See Yeomans
and Kiang (1981).
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(Zhuang, 1977:199; Pankenier et al, 2008:306, 307, 646) and has
been noted throughout history up to the present (ibid.; also see
Jenniskens, 2006:599, Table 1). Comparison to other results Our
model produced highly favorable results when applied to actual
historical observations recorded in the Chinese annals (in press,
Table 5). For instance, there are two separate accounts by the
Chinese of the ETA outburst in AD 401 April 8: (a) 5th year of the
Long'an reign period of Emperor An of the Jin Dynasty, 3rd month,
day jiayin [51]; a multitude of stars streamed westward, passing
through TAIWEI ([Jin shu: An di ji ] Ch. 10) and (b) 5th year of
the Long'an reign period of Emperor An of the Jin Dynasty, 3rd
month, day jiayin [51]; a vast number of scarlet meteors traveled
westward through QIANNIU [LM 9], Xu [LM 11], WEI [LM 12], TIANJIN,
GEDAO, and penetrated TAIWEI and ZIGONG, (Jin su: tianwen zhi ] ch.
13 [Song shu: tianwen zhi ] ch. 25), (Pankenier, et al,
2008:309-310, 648)[note: LM = Lunar Mansions, the Chinese method of
dividing up the night sky along the ecliptic]. According to I-Ching
Yang (e-mail personal communication 2015), these meteors passed
through the constellations Aquila, Aquarius, Pegasus, Cygnus and
Cassiopeia, and also Virgo, Leo, Ursa Minor, and Draco at about
03:00 AM local time. Our integrations showed that an outburst
occurred on April 8 at 03:37 AM (in press), a difference of about
37 minutes from the actual Chinese recorded observation12. In
comparison with Vaubaillon's integrations recorded for historical
dates (Jenniskens, 2006:666, Table 5e), our results were similar
where heavy outbursts were noted, such as in the years 531, 539 and
964 (in press, Table 6). Of special note is the intensity of the
531 outburst that Vaubaillion post-dicted, at an ideal rate of
approximately 900 meteors per hour (Jenniskens, 2006:666, Table
5E), which would also have been likely the most intense outburst
that the Classic Maya would have observed, just as in our model.
Our model, however, actually predicts much more intensive activity,
apparently three times the activity of the Vaubaillon post-diction,
due to the fact that in our model three different passages of
Halley would have caused three separate, though overlapping,
barrages of meteors. A similar model to ours was used by Sato and
Watanabe (2014) for the successful predictions of the ETA outbursts
in 2013 with similar integrations (the author and D.
12 Dealing with dates in ancient astronomical records
can be confusing, mainly in deciding when, exactly did the ancients
change the date--midnight, early in the morning, at dawn? Regarding
the Maya and an Eta Aquariid outburst at 4:00 AM local time, UT
converts to 10:00 AM UT on the same date. In China, however, for
the same time frame that the ETA's would have been seen, 20:00 UT
for April 8 converts to 03:00 AM April 9 local Chinese time. A
study of lunar occultation records by Kiang however (in Yeomans and
Kiang, 1981:636) found that Chinese astronomers continued to use
the date that the previous night began with. "It thus appears the
Chinese practice was closer to the Korean practice of dating all
such observations with the old date (Saito, private communication)
than to the Japanese tradition of making a fairly neat divide at
the 3 am mark (Saito 1979 and private communication," (ibid.). Our
data for outbursts of the ancient Chinese Eta Aquariids seems to
confirm this practice (in press, Table 5).
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J. Asher also verified Sato and Watanabe's results). In an
analysis of the Orionid meteor showers using the same integrator
package, Sekhar and Asher (2013) found that historically recorded
Orionid outbursts that occurred in 1436-1440, 1916, 1933-1938, 1993
and 2006-2010 were caused by particles ejected by Comet Halley
before 240 BC. Discussion The accession of K'an I of Caracol is
recorded on Stela 15 which was found cached at the top of Structure
A6 beneath Altar 7, noted by Grube and Martin (2004: II-15). The
reading of the stela is unusual in that it is read left to right
all the way across each line from top to bottom. The top part of
the inscription is shown in figure 2, which includes the first
three lines and contains the Introductory Long Count, lunar series,
Calendar Round date, and accession statement. Unfortunately the
following glyphs are too eroded to discern much more information.
The date can be read as 9.4.16.13.3, 4 Ak'bal 16 Pohp, which
corresponds to April 14, 531 (Julian Calendar, 584286), or possibly
a few days earlier if one of the other acceptable correlation
constants is used as noted in the footnote above. Structure A6
makes up the central pyramid between structures A5 and A7 in the
architectural complex known as the E-group at Caracol and is
located on the east side of the A plaza (Chase and Chase,
1995:95-99). Structure A2, topping out nearly 25 meters above the
plaza floor, is located on the west side and makes up the single
pyramid opposite the group of three structures on the east side
(ibid.). First discovered by Frans Blom in 1924 at Uaxactun,
E-groups were thought to be observatories for solar phenomena (see
for instance Aveni, 2001:288-293; Aimers and Rice, 2006:79-96). On
a recent trip to Belize the author found that an excellent
observing point for the Eta Aquariid shower would be from atop
Structure A2, as the horizon to the east is visible over some small
hills just to the east of structures A5, A6 and A7. The radiant for
ETA would have risen at about 02:00 AM local time approximately
over the central pyramid A6 on the morning of April 10, 531.
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Figure 2. Stela 15 from Caracol. The lunar series glyph D, "8
days since the moon arrived," may indicate the actual date of the
astronomical event (the meteor outburst on the morning of April 10,
531, when the age of the moon was 8 days. The actual Long Count of
9.4.16.13.3 calls for a moon age of 12 days. (Drawing from Beetz
and Satterthwaite, 1981).
From another location on the east coast of Belize the author
observed ETA meteors on the mornings of May 3 and May 4, 2017
(though the morning of May 5 was too cloudy for good observations).
Most of the meteors unmistakably originated from the known radiant,
very near the Eta Aquarii star.
Long Count 9.4.16.13.3 "8 days since the Moon arrived"
4 Ak'bal 16 Pohp
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Figure 3. Site of Caracol, Structures A2 and A6 in the A plaza.
As stated earlier, the first outburst would have occurred on the
morning of April 10 at 02:42 AM. The parameters in all three
dimensions were very strong, indicating heavy particles that
collided with Earth close to a direct hit. Our computations
indicated that this barrage of particles originated from the
perihelion passage of Halley13 in the year AD 374. It is likely
that this heavy outburst was still active when the second densely
packed cluster of particles impacted Earth at 03:05 AM, originating
from the perihelion passage of Halley in 295. Further,
approximately an hour and a half later,
13 All times
of perihelion passages of Comet Halley herein are from Yeomans and
Kiang, 1981:644, Table 5).
Structure A2. The author on top of Structure A6 (looking west,
photo by my guide, Jorge De Leon)(May 7, 2017).
ETA radiant rise here. Structure A6. Looking east, from atop
Structure A2. (Photo by author, May 7, 2017).
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another extremely intense package of heavy particles struck
Earth at 04:39 AM due to particles ejected from Halley's passage in
451. Sunrise followed this third outburst an hour later, its actual
length in minutes being somewhat arbitrary to estimate, which
likely intensified the experience of the early morning
"conflagration". The moon had already set at 01:02 AM, so none of
the displays would have been diminished by moonlight. Our data
indicated that at least 30 meteoric outbursts of the Eta Aquariids
possibly could have occurred during the Maya Classic Period; most
of them likely would have been caused by only one particular
perihelion passage of Comet Halley (known as a trail, associated
with the particular year of the perihelion passage), only a few by
two separate Halley passages, and only two outbursts by three
separate passages of the Comet. Thus the very positive results of
our model for post-dictions not withstanding, the likelihood of
three separate outbursts from three separate trails (374, 295 and
451) on the same day in AD 531 being a random occurrence is
extremely remote. What would have all these "shooting stars" looked
like on that morning of April 10, 531? Although an actual count of
the meteors on that day would be somewhat arbitrary, there are
records of famous outbursts in the historical records, one of which
is the incredible Leonid meteor storm of 1833. One description
reads (in part), "On the night of November 12-13, 1833, a tempest
of falling stars broke over the Earth...The sky was scored in every
direction with shining tracks and illuminated with majestic
fireballs....--Agnes Clerke's, Victorian Astronomy Writer
(elctronic document, website leonid.arc.nasa.gov, viewed 27 April
2017). See figure three. The radiant would have favored the morning
eastern skies as opposed to the overhead radiant of the Leonids
(Leo), and thus the meteors visible to an observer would be
relatively less as opposed to a radiant that is directly overhead
(see Rendtel and Arlt, 2015:9-12, Figure 1.8, Table 2.1).
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Figure 4. A 19th century woodcut with an impression of the
spectacular November 13, 1833 Leonid storm. (Courtesy Seventh-Day
Adventist Church. Early Settlers look up in amazement at a sky
filled with shooting stars. [website leonid.arc.nasa.gov]).
Whether any sort of description appeared on Stela 15 following
the initial information cannot be known because of the erosion of
the glyphs as noted above, but the author thinks it notable that
the eight day age of the Moon corresponds to the actual date of the
outburst. Table 1 shows recorded lunar ages for sites where
probable ETA outbursts occurred (in press--[except for RAZ, an
Orionid outburst, which was determined recently by the author’s
computations]).
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Event LC Date Site Mon Event
Wrt Rqd Outburst Act
8.19.1.9.13 417 Sep 29 RAZ Tmb 1 birth 11 3.3 24-Sep 27.0
9.4.16.13.3 531 Apr 14 CRC St 15 acc 8 11.9 10-Apr 7.8
9.6.12.4.16 566 Apr 23 CRC St 3 birth 11 17.6 10-Apr 5.0
9.9.5.0.0 618 Apr 14 ALS St 18 pe 11 13.6 10-Apr 10.0
9.10.6.5.9 639 Apr 13 PNG St 36 acc 4 4.1 13-Apr 4.1
9.14.9.9.14 721 Apr 27 CRN Pan 5 arr 26 26.1 12-Apr 10.0
9.16.1.0.0 752 Apr 30 YAX St 11 acc 12 12.3 11-Apr 21.8
9.16.5.0.0 756 Apr 9 CPN St M pe 5 4.5 10-Apr 5.4
9.17.10.7.0 781 Apr 18 HIG St 1 acc 18 20.5 15-Apr 17.4 Table 1.
Comparison of Lunar ages (days) for written (Wrt—inscribed in the
supplementary series), required (Rqd—that lunar age that is called
for by the Long Count, [determined arbitrarily by the author for
12:00 UT, 06:00 local time]) and Act (actual age of the Moon at
time of outburst)(Lunar ages determined using SimCorpSoftware).
(RAZ = Rio Azul, CRC = Caracol, ALS = Altar de Los Sacrificios, PNG
= Piedras Negras, CRN = La Corona, YAX = Yaxchilan, CPN = Copan,
HIG = Los Higos). A lunar age of 4 days is recorded on Quirigua
Stela J for 9.16.5.0.0. (Lunar written ages recently updated
courtesy of M. Grofe, personal communication 2017). LC = Long
Count, Mon = monument, acc = accession, pe = Period Ending.
Although the sample is likely too small to draw any conclusions,
four of the five accession event lunar ages coincide with the
outburst lunar age. The event in disagreement, the accession on
9.16.1.0.0, however, may have been manipulated by the Yaxchilan
Ruler to have occurred on a Period Ending date (Martin and Grube,
2008:128), and thus the lunar age of the Period Ending is recorded.
Results of Recent Eta Aquariid Study Using a data base of Maya
dates (Mathews, 2016; Martin and Grube, 2008; Grube and Martin,
2004) found in the inscriptions, the authors compiled a list of
5514 dates that occurred in the month of April during the Classic
Period. The month of April is ideal because the ETA shower would
have occurred around the second week of the month, allowing that if
the Maya were marking the shower by the celebration of some event
such as a royal accession then that event would be recorded on or
some days following the shower or an outburst associated with that
shower. Computer integrations as described above were then
performed with Comet Halley back to as early as 1404 BC and applied
to those years associated with those 55 dates to determine if an
ETA outburst had occurred during that year. It was found that in
3015 of those years at least some outburst occurred that the Maya
had a chance of observing (see in press, Tables 2 and 3).
14 55 represents the quantity of dates associated with
the least number of unknown events that were available to the
authors at the time. Continuing research is being applied to more
dates as they are discovered or revealed to the authors.
15Parameters for each probable outbursts are listed in Tables 1 and
2 (in press).
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Five of these years, in order of descending intensity, with the
resulting date of the most probable post-dicted outbursts and the
associated Long Count with Julian date and event were: Outburst
Date
Event Long Count Calendar Round
Event Date Event Site
531 Apr 10 9.4.16.13.3 5 Ak'bal 16 Pohp 14-Apr acc K'an I CRC
566 Apr 10 9.6.12.4.16 5 Kib' 14 Wo 23-Apr birth L. B. Ek' CRC 618
Apr 10 9.9.5.0.0 9 Ajaw 18 Wo 14-Apr pe ALS 663 Apr 13 9.11.10.12.5
9 Chikchan 18 Sip 23-Apr dedication CRN 849 Apr 14 10.0.19.6.14 13
'Ix 17 Sek 15-Apr u pataw kabaj CRC
Table 2. The five years during the Classic Period with most
probable outbursts. There were another 13 years where a high
probability of an ETA outburst(s) existed, though of slightly less
intensity (listed loosely in descending order of likelihood)(in
press), Table 3:
Outburst Event Long Count Calendar Round
Event Julian Event Site
756 Apr 10 9.16.5.0.0 8 Ajaw 8 Sotz' 9-Apr pe mult 790 Apr 11
9.17.19.9.1 1 'Imix 19 Sotz' 12-Apr jatz' bihtuun NAR 644 Apr 11
9.10.11.6.12 11 Eb' 0 Sip 9-Apr jatz' bihtuun NAR 721 Apr 12
9.14.9.9.14 8 'Ix 17 Sotz' 27-Apr arr CRN 562 Apr 10 9.6.8.4.2 7
'Ik' 0 Sip 30-Apr Star War CRC 572 Apr 10 9.6.18.5.12 10 'Eb' 0 Wo
7-Apr acc PAL 675 Apr 14 9.12.2.15.11 1 Chuwen 4 Sotz' 26-Apr dep
CRN 752 Apr 11 9.16.1.0.0 11 Ajaw 8 Sek 30-Apr acc YAX 484 Apr 9
9.2.9.0.16 10 Kib 4 Pohp 13-Apr acc CRC 781 Apr 15 9.17.10.7.0 9
Ajaw 3 Sek 18-Apr acc HIG 716 Apr 12 9.14.4.7.5 5 Chikchan 13 Sip
4-Apr attack NAR 511 Apr 11 9.3.16.8.4 11 K'an 17 Pohp 20-Apr acc
TIK 639 Apr 13 9.10.6.5.9 8 Muluk 2 Sip 13-Apr acc PNG
Table 3. Probable ETA outbursts (listed loosely in order of
descending probability). pe = Period Ending; jatz' bihtuun =
"strike the stone road" (Stuart, 2007); arr = arrival; dep =
departure; acc = accession. Since royal accessions seem to dominate
this list, those are plotted on a scatter chart, Figure 6, along
with other accessions and events that occurred in April (though not
necessarily on a computed outburst date). In addition to the
accessions, the 3298 BC primordial event (Stuart, 2005:68-77) that
is recorded at Palenque on the platform located in Temple XIX is
also included because the solar longitude of that event occurs at
the same time that Eta Aquariid outbursts occur (Kinsman,
2015:44-47),
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the importance of which is discussed later in this paper. The
five most probable Maya and historically observed outbursts are
also plotted (in press, Table 5). Five accessions (the sixth to the
far left may be related to the Lyrid meteor showers) plotted to the
immediate left of the 3298 BC event may be significant because the
authors believe that at least four of these may have involved
predictions of the annual ETA shower--not an outburst--by the Maya
astronomers. A prediction is possible because a whole number of
days (about 262) exists between the peaks of the Perseid shower in
July and the Eta Aquariid shower the following April. The days
between the same annual shower is not an integral number, i.e.
365.256. Kan Bahlam I from Palenque may have been the first ruler
to predict an ETA shower by acceding on 9.6.18.5.12, April 7, 572.
Serendipitously, perhaps, an ETA outburst may have also occurred
three days later following the ruler's accession (ibid., Tables 1
and 3, paragraph 4.12). Approximately 90 royal accessions occurred
at Maya sites throughout the Classic Period (Mathews, 2016; Martin
and Grube, 2008) and out of these a total of 26 accessions occurred
during these two 30 day periods; the binomial probability of this
being a random occurrence is less than two percent (in press).
Although research is not complete regarding all approximately 30
day periods of a year, and events connected to meteor showers or
outbursts may involve more than just accessions, the authors
believe that the evidence presented thus far supports the notion
that the Classic Maya observed and recorded ETA meteor showers and
outbursts. Primordial event of 3298 BC The author now re-examines
the pre-Era day (13.0.0.0.0, 4 Ajaw 8 Kumk'u) Long Count date of
12.10.12.14.18 from Palenque Temple XIX in light of the possibly
greater connection of that date to the Eta Aquariids (Kinsman,
2015, 44-45, figure 3). David Stuart describes the ritual
decapitation using the ch'ak (axing) verb of the Starry Deer
Crocodile as involving flowing of blood and drilling of fire
(2005:68-77). Fire drilling has already been related to meteors
(Taube, 2002:294; Roys, 1965:xix, 6-10), but the glyph collocation
found at F5 (see Figure 6) is more obscure (Stuart, 2005:76).
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39
Figure 5. Passage S-2 from Temple XIX platform, Crocodile
decapitation, Palenque (Stuart, 2005:68-77) (Drawing by D. Stuart).
Stuart describes the glyph blocks at F5 and E6 as possibly being a
couplet, where F6 would be analyzed a "fire-drill entity" where the
-aj suffix suggests a person or entity (not the usual passive verb
ending)(ibid.). Although looking for a transitive verb with the
spelling of na-ka (nak) at F5a, the author believes the
intransitive verb nak with the meaning of subir (to go up; to
raise)(Barrera, 1980:553) may be more appropriate, as discussed in
the following section. Transliteration, Transcription and
Translation of glyph block F5 The other key to the hieroglyphs at
F5a may come from the idea that excrement could be "any bodily
effluent, be it gaseous, fluid or solid....This includes blood,
urine, sweat, mucus, vomit, afterbirths, exhalations and semen
(Phillip Thompson, personal communication in 1985 to Trenary,
1987-1988:103) and "The existence of similar concepts exist among
the Aztecs as confirmed by Xavier Noguez" (personal communication
in 1987 to Trenary, 1987-1988:103).
12.10.12.14.18 1 Etz'nab' 6 Yaxk'in
2
3
4 5
6
na-‐ POJOW/POJW? -‐ka
-‐wa
-‐AJ
3298 BC March 17.75 43.299º (Solar Longitude)
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40
Meteors as excrement of stars exists in several pertinent Mayan
languages: (1) ta' ek' -- shooting star. Lit., "star [ek']
excrement [ta’]) (Ch'ol, Hopkins et al, 2010:219), (2) sk'oy k'anal
-- estrella fugaz ["fleeting star"--star-(k'anal), excrement-
(k'oy)](Tojolabal [Volume 1], Lenkersdorf, 2010:332-333, 522). (3)
tsa'ec' (aerolito, estrella fugaz)(Tzeltal, Slocum et al, 1999:129,
163, 206), (4) tzo' k'anal (meteor)(Tzotzil, Laughlin, 1975:93;
Laughlin with Haviland, 1988:173). Although Stuart states that the
MAIN-SIGN-wa collocation at F5b is the same as the "water-band"-wa
collocation at F4, the main signs are somewhat different in that
both the flow band elements and the ancillary "curly" elements are
dissimilar. In fact, the author would like to propose that instead
of "water", the F5b main sign may represent "pus" as a form of
excrement. The -wa suffix provides a -w complement for, "pus" that
Kaufman and Norman reconstruct as *pojow (Tz) and proto-Mayan
*pojw, which mean "materia, pus,"; pus (Ch'olti, Ch'orti, Ch'ol and
Cholan)(1984:129, entry 418). The Mayan Etymological Dictionary
(Kaufman with Justeson, 2003:1343) lists several appropriate
languages16 with the same or similar meaning: pojw (CHR) -- pus,
materia pojow (TZE) -- pus, materia pojow (TOJ) -- pus, materia
pojow (QAN) -- pus, materia (de herida [injury, wound]) pohow (POP)
-- pus, materia (de herida) pojow (TUZ) -- materia pojow, po7w
(CHJ) -- pus, materia (de herida) poow (AKA) -- pus, materia (de
herida) pojw, poj(w) (QEQ) -- pus, materia pojwink (QEQcah)
-supurar (vi. to ooze, to discharge) pojwo7 (QEQlan) - supurar The
English words meteor, meteoric, meteorism, meteorite, meteorize
originate from the Greek; "Greek meteoros, high in the air, has
verb meteorizein, to raise high, whence 'to meteorize'; derivative
Greek meteorismos, a raising, becomes medical English meteorism,
flatulence—cf Hippocrates' meteorizesthai, to suffer from
flatulence," (Partidge, 1979:400)[note, abbreviations have been
converted to proper words by the author]. The Maya may have then
similarly used nak as referring to a raising in the air, though in
this case, likely a raising of "pus" instead of flatulence, two
forms of excrement. Maya nakal ha' glosses armarse aguacero, "to
cause or create a shower or downpour"; similar uses include nakal
muyal [cloud] and nakal yalil, "crecer la mar" (Barrera, 1980:554).
Tzotzil glosses naka Ho' ch'ich' as "uterine flux. sangre lluvia"
(Laughlin with Haviland, 1988:269), where naka functions as a type
of adverb seemingly to indicate a flowing of sorts (author's
interpretation), and ch'ich' means "blood". Thus nak(a) pojw could
be interpreted literally as a "flowing of pus" or "the
16 CHR -- Ch'orti7; CHT -- Ch'olti7; CHL -- Ch'ol; TZE
-- Tzeltal; TOJ -- Tojol 7ab'al; QAN -- Q'anjob'al; POP -- Popti7;
TUZ -- "Tuzanteco" /mu:chu7/; CHJ -- Chuj; AKA -- Akateko; QEQ --
Q'eqchi7, lan = Lanqi*n, cah = Cahabo*n /k'ajb'om/
(ibid.:38-43).
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41
excrement of stars." The author thus proposes that the glyph
collocation at F5 may mean nak[al] pojow/pojw "causing/creating
excrement ("pus")"[to flow from the sky or heavens] or an
"excrement (pus) causing entity," in a similar manner to Stuart's
proposal of the collocation at E6 "fire-drill entity," (2005:76)
and is either a descriptive term of the Starry Deer-Crocodile who
causes meteors (excrement or pus) or is a direct (metaphorical)
reference to meteors themselves as referenced above with meteors
signifying star excrement. The transliteration would be: na-ka
POJOW/POJW-wa -AJ, and the transcription would be nak[al]
pojow/pojw [aj]. The above translation would provide even more
support for the meteor connection of the primordial event in 3298
BC. Other Meteor showers in relation to other Maya Events Although
by itself research into Eta Aquariid outbursts and the annual Eta
Aquariid meteor showers provides some measure of probability that
the Maya actually observed these phenomena, a higher confidence
level may be obtained by examining other historical showers that
occurred during the year and their relationship to events other
than accessions that the Maya recorded in the script. Besides a
more detailed discussion of the figure of the ETA's, three more
plots of different segments of solar longitudes of Earth's orbit
compare different Maya events to mythological dates in the Maya
record and historical records of ancient observations by China and
other cultures. Plots of segments of solar longitudes, Figures 6,
7, 8 and 9 The following four plots show all (may be revised as new
or missed dates become available) events/dates in the Maya corpus
for each of four 32-34 day segments of the year converted to solar
longitudes. Dates that fall on the same solar longitude define a
difference in a whole number of sidereal years. Thus the plots show
the connection of contemporary Maya events to meteor showers and
mythological events. Each segment relates solar longitudes to the
following approximate dates during the Classic Period (and earlier
dates in mythological time): Figure 6--solar longitudes 30º-62º,
March 29 to April 30. Figure 7--solar longitudes 294º-327º,
December 24 to January 25. Figure 8--solar longitudes 130º-164º,
July 13 to August 15. Figure 9--solar longitudes 230º-264º, October
21-November 23. Visual examination of each plot seems to show a
dense clustering of events at the solar longitudes of most known
meteor showers, although a detailed statistical
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42
analysis is beyond the scope of the present essay17. In the case
of clustering at the solar longitude of only one outburst in the
historical records18 it is possible a single outburst may represent
the only observed outburst of an established shower. In a paper
circulated among epigraphers by the author (2016,
October-November), the author showed that there was a high
probability that of the first 14 rulers at Palenque, many seemed to
associate their accession dates to one of 23 mythological dates
recorded at Palenque with the length of the Earth's sidereal year.
The length of the sidereal year that the Maya appeared to have
favored was very close to the present value of 365.25636 days.
Where there was no mythological event, the Maya ruler may have
associated himself with an annual meteor shower. The author
calculated a high success rate using binomial probability that was
secure even with only a low sample (the first 14 Palenque rulers)
which was based on the Maya using a maximum error of plus or minus
one day in the difference between the distance of days between the
contemporary accession date and the mythological date. The
importance of solar longitude cannot be overstated. Any date is
merely a position of the Earth in space along Earth's orbit,
therefore all dates must be converted to solar longitudes, fixed
points in space (given a specific reference) prior to comparison19
with each other, especially when comparing mythological dates with
contemporary Maya dates. Because meteoroid streams reside (for some
length of time, depending on the stream) at a particular place in
space, they are first defined by their solar longitude. When a
particular date's solar longitude matches the solar longitude of a
meteoroid stream, then a shower or outburst can occur provided the
other conditions described earlier are met. Since the plots show
dates converted to solar longitudes, by definition when the events
appear at the same or nearly the same value, there exists an
integral number of sidereal years between those events.
17 Future statistical analysis will include a full set
of dates, events and solar longitudes for the segments under
inquiry as space here does not permit inclusion. This information
however, is available at anytime from the author. 18 The author
only plotted outbursts that occurred before the year 1000. 19 The
author used an ephemerides program known as Horizons located at
NASA's online website, ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons found under the
Solar System Dynamics section (Giorgini, et al, 1996).
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43
Figure 6. Events recorded by the Maya, probable Maya outbursts,
and observed outbursts by China plotted for the Classic Period
month of April. Vertical spacing is for ease of reading only. The
shaded circles represent royal accessions, unshaded circles = other
than royal accessions; "x" = unknown event; cross = possibly deadly
events other than actual deaths (i.e. war, fire and/or tomb
ceremonies, capture, downing of flint-shield, axing); "x with
vertical line" = death; diamonds with black-shaded centers = "soft"
events such as period endings, arrivals, departures, dedications
(not fire-related), 819 day count; black unfilled squares = births.
Black triangles = computed Maya outbursts, unshaded triangles =
historic outbursts recorded by China; shaded triangle = single
outburst recorded not related to an established annual shower (as
annotated by Jenniskens [2006:Table 1]).
30.000 35.000
40.000 45.000 50.000
55.000 60.000
China
Maya
Events
Solar Longitude (Degrees)
12.10.12.14.18 3298 BC Mar 17.75
43.299º
993 BC Mar 21.75 33.208º
Lyrids
Eta
Aquariids
461 China
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44
Discussion of Figure 6. The three unshaded triangles at solar
longitudes 32º-33º represent the Lyrid meteor shower, the oldest
known shower on record, first recorded in 687 BC and still seen
today at the same solar longitude (Pankenier, et al, 2008:306;
Zhuang, 1977:199; see Rendtel, 2014:20-21). There is a
concentration of Maya events at this same solar longitude: 2-3
deaths, an accession, an 819 day count, a couple of unknowns and a
birth. The birth event refers to K'uk' Balam, the first ruler of
Palenque whose birth was recorded on 8.18.0.13.6, 5 Kimi 14 K'ayab,
397 March 31, which corresponds to a solar longitude of 33.899º20
(March 31.75). His birth can be related to the birth in 993 BC
March 21 of U Kokan Chan (Stuart, 2006;118, 124, 125) on
5.7.11.8.4, 1 K'an 2 Kumk'u, which corresponds to a solar longitude
of 33.208º (March 21.75). The difference between these two events
is within a fraction of a day of the length of the Earth's sidereal
year as discussed above (a correction of subtracting only one day
from the interval between the two events would be required to bring
the accuracy to as close as possible to the actual sidereal year).
The Eta Aquariid shower, from about 40º-45º, shows the five most
probable outbursts that could have been observed by the Maya (in
press) in about the same range and a clustering of Maya events
within the first half of that range. The average of the probable
outbursts is within about a half degree of the crocodile
decapitation event in 3298 BC.
20 All solar longitudes in this paper are calculated
for noon (12:00) local time (18:00 UT), which means the date will
appear as a .75 decimal notation in Universal Time (UT), unless
otherwise noted. This was an arbitrary time chosen by the author to
help with comparing and identifying events and reproducing solar
longitude values, not that the Maya were marking events to three
decimal points of accuracy. Events that are identified as possibly
occurring at night are usually calculated with a solar longitude
that indicates midnight. Since 360 degrees of orbit occurs in 365
days, and there are 0.041 degrees difference per hour, an event
calculated for noon local time could perhaps begin at 06:00 AM, or
0.246º less than the calculated value, or up to 05:59 AM the next
morning, or 0.738º more than the calculated value. Although these
values might seem trivial to the casual reader, they may not be
when compared to some of the values produced in the plots of Maya
events and the peak solar longitudes of some annual meteor
showers.
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45
Figure 7. Showers 32 (unshaded triangles) and 33 (black solid
triangles), single historical outbursts (shaded red) triangles, and
Maya events, including accessions.
294.000 299.000 304.000 309.000
314.000 319.000 324.000
Mecca,Japan, Europe, China
Events
Solar Longitude (Degrees)
12.19.13.3.0 3121 BC Dec
14.75 310.960º 819 Day Ct
for opening date of Tablet of
the Cross
784 Japan
Shower 32
765 Korea
773 Japan
Shower 33
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46
Discussion of Figure 7. Figure 7 covers Maya events, outbursts
and 12 accessions that occurred toward the end of December and
through most of January in the Maya Classic Period. Two active
showers including outbursts that occurred within that time period,
though not active today, have been labeled Shower 32 and 33 by
Jenniskens (2006:610, 611, Table 1)(see also Kinsman, 2014:91, 92,
Figure 4). The Maya may have also witnessed these showers as shown
by the clustering of events in the 300º-303º range, which appear to
occur around the peak of Shower 32. Another clustering of events
occurs at a peak of about 305º, along with a recorded outburst,
which may or may not be part of Shower 32. A single outburst was
recorded by Korea in 765 (Ahn, 2004; Pankenier, et al,
2008:317-318) which may have been a member of an annual shower
since there is a clustering of Maya events at that same solar
longitude, 309º. Shower 33 also shows some clustering of events at
around 324º. One of the many events that occurs around 309º is a
temple and shrine dedication, a house-entering at Six ? Sky at
Palenque on 9.12.19.14.12, 5 Eb' 5 K'ayab', 692 January 8.75
(Stuart, 2006:108-110, 133-134). This date relates to the 819 Day
count, 12.19.13.3.0, for the opening date on the Tablet of the
Cross, 12.19.13.4.0 (2006:117, A1-B16) by 3,811 sidereal years,
1,391,992 days ([3,811][365.256363]). The accession of Ahk'al Mo
Nahb' I on 9.3.5.0.6, 501 June 4.75, relates to the 819 Day count,
12.9.19.14.5, of the opening date on Temple XIX, 12.10.1.13.2 by
the same number of days, 1,391,992 and thus the same number of
sidereal years, 3,811, thus yielding again the sidereal year length
of 365.256363 days. Furthermore, both use the same number, 1699 (a
prime number) cycles of the 819 day count. So, in both cases, the
sidereal year can be calculated by (1699)(819) + 1.7.11 =
(3811)(365.256363). 1.7.11 is the distance number written on Tablet
of the Foliated Cross, S. Jambs for the 819 Day count (1 Imix 19
Ch'en at B6A7a). See Kinsman (2016) for a more detailed explanation
of these calculations.
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47
Figure 8. Shower 9, the Perseids and Shower 12. Discussion of
Figure 8. Figure 8 seems to show at least 5 clusters of events that
correspond to Shower 9 (about 133º average), the Perseids (peak at
about 140º), a single outburst observed by China in 465 (about
145.5º), Shower 12 (about 150º) and a single outburst observed in
902 at Baghdad (162º, see Jenniskens, 2006:603, Table 1). One of
the events noted at the Shower 9 solar longitude is a "strike"
event, jatz'aj b'ituun, at 133.173º, 9.6.4.6.16, 558 July 14.75,
recorded on Naranjo Altar 2, A1A3 (Grube and Martin, 2004:II-20).
Shower 9 has only been observed in the historic record by China in
708 and 714, so it cannot be certain that the shower existed
130.000 135.000
140.000 145.000
150.000 155.000
160.000
China
Maya Events
Solar Longitude (Degrees)
252 BC Jul 22.75 House ded?
PAL 146.055º
3023
BC Jul 19.75 GI action PAL
160.446º
Shower 9
Perseids
465 Ch
865 Ch Shower
12
902 Baghdad
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48
before 708. However, if jatz' bihtuun does actually record
meteor strikes, then it could be said that Shower 9 first occurred
in 558. It is noted on Table 3 above that 2 Eta Aquariid outbursts
likely occurred in 644 and 790, possibly recorded by the jatz'
bihtuun phrase.
Figure 9. Shower 25. Discussion of Figure 9. The only historical
shower to occur in the 230º to 264º range occurred around 240º
known as Shower 25 (Jenniskens, 2006:608, Table 1), where the first
outburst is noted to have occurred on November 1, 643 by Korea
(Ahn, 2004 in Pankenier,
230.000 235.000
240.000 245.000
250.000 255.000
260.000
China
Events
Solar Longitude (Degrees)
391 BC Oct 15.75
3765 BC Oct
3.75 3805
BC Oct 9.75 Unknown CPN
"He played
ball" CRN unknown
CRN 230.674º
241.985º
249.411º
Shower 25
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49
2008:313). Possibly within this range is another jatz' bihtuun,
"strike the stone road" event recorded on 9.15.4.4.14, 735, Oct
31.75, 239.133º. This is a date on Tikal Temple VI, (Date F,
F13-E14) that was recently recalculated by Martin (2015:6).
Therefore it is possible that now all four jatz' bihtuun events
have been recorded on meteor shower dates, which may say that jatz'
bihtuun records an actual meteor or meteor outburst. On 728 October
31 a "curious" ballgame was noted to have taken place at Tonina on
Monument 171 (Stuart, 2013). The Long Count is 9.14.16.2.12, 7 'Eb'
5 K'ank'in, solar longitude 239.181º (October 31.75). This event
may be related to a mythological ball playing event recorded at La
Corona, Hieroglyphic Stairway 2, Blocks VIII and IX (A1-F3),
11.6.19.10.7, 8 Manik' 10 Sak, 3765 BC October 3, corresponding to
solar longitude 241.985º (October 3.75). The difference between
these two events is also within a fraction of a day of the accuracy
of the sidereal year as discussed above. Both of these events may
correspond to Shower 25. It was mentioned in the beginning of this
essay that Hagar wrote about a ceremony that commemorated the
falling stars during the Quecholli festival. He states that the
Lord of the Dead, who fell with these stars, governed the Festival
of the Dead preceding the Quecholli, which was held "towards the
end of October" (Hagar, 1931:399). It may well have been that
Shower 25 was the meteor shower that was observed for Quecholli.
Summary This paper reaffirms the conclusion from recent research
(in press) that there is a likely probability that the Maya
observed at least the Eta Aquariid meteor showers, among them the
very extreme outburst that likely occurred in 531 with the
possibility that the Maya at Caracol observed this phenomenon and
marked the event with the royal accession of K'an I on 9.4.16.13.3
4 Ak'bal 16 Pohp. There is a good probability that the jatz'
bihtuun, "strike the stone road" event that occurs on Naranjo Altar
2 three times and once on Tikal Temple VI records a meteor or
meteor outburst event, two times from an Eta Aquariid outburst,
once from Shower 9 and once from Shower 25. The author thinks that
the crocodile decapitation event from 3298 BC March 17,
12.10.12.14.18 involves an Eta Aquariid meteor outburst post-dicted
by the Maya based on their contemporary observation of that meteor
shower throughout the Classic Maya Period. The glyph collocation at
F5 could be read nak[al] pojow/pojw [aj], interpreted literally as
a "flowing of pus" or "the excrement (of stars)," thus possibly a
direct reference to a meteor shower, specifically an Eta Aquariid
outburst. Four plots were produced that plotted the solar
longitudes of most all Maya events within those four approximately
monthly groups. These plots emphasized the sidereal year
relationship between events and meteor showers that occurred in the
Maya Classic Period.
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50
Notes Continued research will involve computer integrations for
the Orionid and Perseid meteor showers, plotting solar longitudes
for the entire corpus of Maya inscriptions and performing
statistical analysis on the those plots. Acknowledgments The author
is grateful to astronomer D. J. Asher for collaboration in
producing the post-dicted Eta Aquariid outbursts and for use of the
Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, UK (Mark Bailey, Emeritus
Director). The author thanks M. Grofe for the updated Lunar Series
data base, B. MacLeod for comments, I-Ching Yang for translation of
the Chinese observation of the Eta Aquariid outburst in AD 401, and
Jorge De Leon for a superbly guided tour of Caracol. References
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Figure 10. The author and his astronomer colleague (D. J. Asher)
in Northern Ireland (on the north coast) where they began their
research. Photo courtesy of Hutch Kinsman.
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Figure 11. Caana, "Sky Place" in Caracol. Photo by the
author.
