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Work programme on data and indicators:

ODYSSEE data base (WP2)

B Lapillonne

K Pollier

Enerdata

W Eichhammer, Joachim Schleich,

Kick-off meeting of the project

“Monitoring of EU and national energy

efficiency targets” (ODYSSEE-MURE 2010)

Madrid, 21/22 June 2010

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Content of WP2: Top-down energy efficiency indicators and energy savings (ODYSSEE)

Task 2.1: Updating of the indicator database

Task 2.2: Training on top-down indicators

Task 2.3: Development of new indicators

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Workprogramme : Task 2.1. Updating of the indicator database

Sub Task 2.1.1. Improvement of data template

Sub Task 2.1.2. Updating

Sub Task 2.1.3. Improvement of data and harmonization

of definition and calculation

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Sub-Task 2.1.1 Improvement of data template (1/3)

Objectives : facilitate the work of national teams and reinforce control of

inputs data to detect inconsistencies and errors

Organisation of the new data template (red=new):

one sheet by sector (instead all data in one long sheet) including:

primary data, indicators and data controls

data from international sources (Eurostat for energy consumption,

DG Transport for data on transport traffic, EEA for CO2 emissions)

4 sheets dedicated to ODEX including sources and qualification of

the data used (qualification of data sources and uncertainty)

one ESD sheet to calculate savings for the ESD monitoring

(available in January 2011)

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New template: organization of data by sector

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Sub-Task 2.1.1 Improvement of data template: controls (2/3)

Check of the consistency between data;

Check of the variation from one year to another;

Automatic comparison with Eurostat /DG Transport data to see

possible differences in case of significant divergences, explanation

of the magnitude of differences to be undertaken with national teams;

Control of the order of magnitude by including reference values for

indicators (EU average);

Use of graphs to check disruption in data series.

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New template: automatic control of data consistency

Consistency

check

Data

harmonized

Main

indicators

calculated

1

2

3

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New template: automatic control on the last years updated

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New template: automatic comparison with Eurostat

Indicative color if differences is higher/lower than 10%

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New template: main indicators calculated and visualization through graphs

The user can choose a predefined indicator and visualize the trends through graphs !

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Sub-Task 2.1.1 Improvement of data template: ESD sheet(3/3)

ESD sheet dedicated to calculate savings for the ESD monitoring , as an

assistance to national teams who want to make use of ODYSSEE data

for ESD top-down reporting (available in January 2011)

pre-formatted sheet filled in with required “ESD data” by sector*

with the qualification of ESD data in terms of sources and uncertainty

(based on ODYSSEE criteria)

with an indication of the % of ESD data supplied on top of the sheet

a calculation in the datasheet of energy savings (in ktoe and/or GWh)

by sub sector and end-use according to ESD methodology.

*The share of consumption under ETS will be estimated though a share from inventories if

data non available at national level.

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Sub-Task 2.1.2 Updating (1)

ODYSSEE database needs to be well updated to be more useful

and credible (in May 2010, the Odyssee database was updated until

2007 (t-3 compared to now) )

3 updates of the Odyssee database will be planned with the following

objectives:

o first updating for 2008 by September 2010 and macro data for 2009

(marked with a special color) (with possibility of revisions by

December 2010)

o second updating in June 2011 (2009 data) and macro data for 2010

o third updating in June 2012 (2010 data) and macro data for 2011

Level of updating of key indicators

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

EL

FR

HR

AT

DE IT

UK

SE

ES

NL

EU

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DK

NO IE FI

HU LV

PL SI

CZ

PT

RO

SK

BE

MT

EE

CY LT

BG

LU

Nu

mb

er

of

ind

icato

rs

Before 2006

Up to 2006

Up to 2007

At the beginning of the project (june 2010)

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Sub-Task 2.1.2 Updating (2)

Data comments to be adressed to teams after each update to point out

data problems to continue improving both the data coverage and the

quality of updating.

New: A summary of major data revision will also be prepared for each

country and will be posted on the website

Data for non-European OECD countries (Canada, USA, Japan, Australia)

will be processed to be integrated in an harmonized way in the ODYSSEE

database.

Enerdata will be in charge of the updating for the EU as a whole. It will

make use of the data available at EUROSTAT: a document will be prepared

to explain for each sector and main data the source of data or mode of

estimate of EU wide data

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Sub-Task 2.1.3 . Improvement of data and harmonization of definition and calculation

Assistance to countries to estimate energy consumption by end-use for

households and by vehicle type in transport. The methodology to be used

will be proposed by Enerdata and will rely on the methods presently used

in countries that provide such data.

Harmonization of definition or boundaries for energy efficiency

indicators. The focus will be given to 5 sectors:

1. Total road transport

2. Biofuels

3. Road transport of goods),

4. Industry (total vs non ETS)

5. Electricity for services

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Sub-Task 2.1.3 . Harmonization of definition (1/3)

1. Road transport : distinction between:

“total energy consumption”, as given in Eurostat statistics,

“domestic consumption of road transport” cleaned from “border

sales” and foreign vehicles used in ODEX.

2. Road transport : control for biofuels:

Statistics on fuel consumption have two possible origins that

create confusion:

oMotor fuels sales (gasoline, diesel) where gasoline or diesel

consumption data implicitly includes biofuels

oEnergy balance where gasoline, diesel refers only to the oil

product of motor fuels (i.e. without biofuels)

Need to check that biofuels are well included in the data or

indicators by vehicle type (e.g. cars), which was not always the case

in the past.

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Sub-Task 2.1.3 Harmonization of definition (2/3)

3. Road transport of goods :

need of harmonization of definition and boundaries for the energy

consumption, traffic and stock of vehicles, to better explain trends

of the specific consumption per ton-km (case of foreign vehicles,

transit, traffic abroad by domestic vehicles), vehicles concerned (>

3t or >6t or all categories).;

distinction between heavy trucks and light duty vehicles

4. Industry: separation of the consumption of ETS establishment by

sector through exchange of experience on how the countries are

tackling this issue and to either propose a method or to select the

best existing practice.

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Sub-Task 2.1.3 . Harmonization of definition (3/3)

5. Services (electricity uses):

Sector with the fastest energy demand growth

Sector for which it is difficult to assess energy efficiency progress

due to lack of data.

Need to better break down the electricity consumption:

o by branch so as to have more comparable sectors of activity

o and end –use.

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Task 2.2. Training on data and indicators

Training is important as the national experts involved in the evaluation of

energy consumption trends and in the top-down monitoring of energy

savings are changing in some countries

Training covering the following 3 topics:

o Calculation of energy savings, calculation with ODEX, difference

between various methods and indicators

o Data issues and estimates : how to improve the data coverage,

especially for consumption by end-use in buildings and by mode in

transport

o Interpretation of energy consumption/ energy intensity

variations: role of energy savings, structural changes, lifestyles…

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Task 2.2. Training agenda

Review by sector:

Data needed: organisation of data file, different type of data, most

important data to be updated rapidly , existing data controls, usual

data problems,

Estimation of additional data

Indicators available in the data sheet: interpretation

ODEX calculation

ESD energy savings calculations

Training based on concrete examples and case studies

Training materials including on ODYSSEE web site

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Task 2.3. New indicators

New indicators and methodologies will be developed in 5 areas:

1. Rapid estimation of indicators for year t-1 through short–term

indicators;

2. Improvement of the calculation of energy savings for end-uses

where they are underestimated or cannot be calculated because of

hidden structural changes;

3. Calculation of energy savings in primary energy terms, taking into

account losses for electricity and heat generation ;

4. Quantification of uncertainty of indicators and savings.

5. Interpretation of the variation of the primary energy intensity into

different explanatory factors.

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SubTask 2.3.1 Short term indicators (1/2)

Need for decision maker to have the most recent views on energy

efficiency development.

However, top-down indicators rely on energy and economic statistics

which are produced with some delays:

o Typically, basic data for year t (e.g. 2008) are produced at mid- year

t+1 (e.g. mid 2009).

o More detailed data, such as energy consumption by end-use or sub-

sector may require 6 months to one year more and will be typically

available at year t+2 (e.g. 2010).

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SubTask 2.3.1 Short term indicators (2/2)

Task and timing:

oDevelopment of the methodology and the test on forecasting capability

will begin directly at the start of the project, as to provide preliminary

figures on energy savings: values for 2010 by spring 2011, for the first

NEEAP evaluation.

oExtrapolation made by:

Econometric methods for energy use indicator (e.g.

kWh/appliance or /m2)

And extrapolation/modeling for diffusion indicators

o. A list of “fast” data/indicators (e.g. GDP, diffusion indicator) will be set

up to identify the data needed in this extrapolation.

oResponsibility: Enerdata

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SubTask 2.3.2 Correction of energy savings from structural changes (1/2)

Objective : Propose a methodology to clean the consumption (mainly

electricity in households or services) from structural changes not yet

corrected to measure savings when the indicators show an increasing

trends:

in services for example, this increasing trends can be due to more

equipment per employee such trends cannot be considered as

reduction in energy efficiency but are due to structural changes.

This correction will mainly concern countries without sufficiently

disaggregated data by end uses or sub sector:

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SubTask 2.3.2 Correction of energy savings from structural changes (2/2)

A shortlist of the most important data types to be gathered will be defined

based on the importance of removing structural effects, and thus improving

the quality of the overall saving figures.

The calculations will be first tested on a reference country where the data

needed exist.

Then the methodology will be applied to a limited number of countries with

a relative good data coverage and for which the structural effect is

important.

Responsibility: ECN

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SubTask 2.3.3 Calculation of energy savings of final energy consumers in primary terms (1/2)

Final energy savings are calculated in ODYSSEE in final energy terms,

accounting electricity on the basis of its calorific value (i.e. 1 kWh=3600 kJ or

0.086 kgoe).

This means that replacing fossil fuels with electricity will show energy

savings as electricity is more efficient than fossil fuels at the level of final

consumers.

However depending how electricity is produced this substitution may

actually increase the primary energy consumption, which means that there

is no saving any more.

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SubTask 2.3.3 Calculation of energy savings of final energy consumers in primary terms (2/2)

The ESD has left the possibility to member countries to choose how to

convert electricity into energy units and some countries have chosen to

use a conversion in primary terms (i.e. 1 kWh=10 500 kJ or 0.25 kgoe).

The project will implement a calculation of final energy savings in both

final and primary energy terms. Several possibilities will be considered as

to which coefficient to select for the conversion:

EU default value (e.g. 0.25 as proposed by ESD)

National average for power generation

National average for thermal power generation (as proxy fro a

marginal value)

Constant or fixed value?

Responsibility: Enerdata

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Sub-task 2.3.4 Quantification of uncertainty in savings (1/2)

Goal:• ESD emphasizes the trade-off between efforts and the quality of

the savings figures

• analysis of the uncertainty can show how to improve the reliability of the saving figures the most with minimum effort on the inputs

• indicative margins to guide a more optimal calculation process

• building on earlier work on characterization of ODYSSEE input data in terms of data sources (from A to C) and uncertainty qualification ( from 1 to 3)

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Sub-task 2.3.4 Quantification of uncertainty in savings (1/2)

Task:• Set-up of general procedure to analyse uncertainty

• Transformation of input characteristics into uncertainty margins

• Calculation of margins for savings for 3 pilot countries: The Netherlands, Austria and France

• Report on the approach and country results, including advice on better inputs contributing the most to more reliable saving figures

• Responsibility: ECN

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Sub-task 2.3.5 Interpretation of the variation of the primary energy intensity

Goal:• Relate primary consumption and primary intensity variations to

various explanatory factors

• To be mainly used in WP 4 and presented in WP4

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Change in ODYSSEE indicators and data (1/4): new data/data changes

Change of classifications of Eurostat (Nace rev 2):

countries are shifting progressively to the revised NACE

Change: the old and new NACE codes will be indicated

Harmonisation of emissions with official inventories (e.g. road transport)

Presently emissions from EEA used in ODYSSEE for main sectors ,

but not by sub-sector or transport modes

Change: all emissions available in EEA inventories to be used

systematically and only what is not available will be calculated in

ODYSSEE and be made consistent with EEA inventories (e.g. sum of

emission of road vehicles with total emissions from road transport);

Addition of data required to calculate ESD energy savings in services not

yet in ODYSSEE : activity by sub sector in services (e.g. number of beds

for hospitals, number of person-nights for hotels …)

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Change in ODYSSEE indicators and data (2/4): diffusion indicators

Indicators of diffusion in ODYSSEE

Households sales of efficient /label A lamps

% of label A or A++ in new sales of electrical appliance (GfK)

installed area of solar collector (EurObserver)

Installed capacity of solar PV in buildings (IEA PVPS)

Share of new dwellings with label A

Share/number of dwellings with triple glazing

Transport % of passenger transport by public modes (calculation)

% of transport of goods by rail and water (calculation)

km/year by public modes (calculation)

% new cars < 120 gCO2 (EU monitoring)

Share of alternative fuels in consumption (e.g. biofuels, LPG,

CNG)

Share of hybrid / electric cars

Industry Share of industrial CHP (Eurostat)

Share of efficient electric motors (IE2 and IE3)

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Change in ODYSSEE indicators and data: ODEX (3/4)

Reference year: fixed base year as in ESD?:

Presently moving reference year to avoid to be dependant on the

characteristics of one year;

This method raises some problems in case of extreme variations

as shown by Caiman Cahill from University College Cork

ESD has chose implicitly a fixed reference year (2007)

it is proposed to keep the moving reference year and to better

analyse the pros and cons of both methods

Integration in industry ODEX of “other branches”, of mining and

construction

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Change in ODYSSEE indicators and data: ODEX (4/4)

Air transport and ODEX transport :

ODEX transport presently includes total air transport

ESD excludes air transport

it is proposed to calculate 2 ODEX transport with and without air

transport

In addition, IEA has changed its definition of final energy

consumption which now excludes international air transport, however

Eurostat will not change its definition of the final energy consumption

because of the various targets set on the consumption ODYSSEE

will follow the definition of Eurostat);