Key Trends in Treasury Management McKinsey & Company, Global Concepts Office Matt Ribbens, CTP CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without

Key Trends in Treasury Management

McKinsey & Company, Global Concepts Office

Matt Ribbens, CTP

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYAny use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited

September 23, 2010

McKinsey & Company 2

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▪ The US payments landscape

▪ Key trends in treasury management


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- Bank of America

- Bank of New York Mellon

- Citigroup

- JPMorgan Chase

- Wells Fargo/Wachovia

Commercial DDA revenue accounts for 12% of total industry revenues

▪ 12% of industry revenues

▪ 16% of industry profits

▪ $18 billion in cash management fee-equivalent income

▪ $10 billion in NII

US payments industry revenues: 2008 1

100% = $277 billion

Other

Merchant

acquiring

Money

services

Commercial credit

card issuing

Commercial

DDA $3312%

Consumer

DDA

Consumer credit

card issuing

SOURCE: McKinsey US Payments Map, 2008-2013, release Q4-09

Quick facts

1 Cash management services are counted on a fee-equivalent basis; ECR expense has therefore been backed out of NII2 2008; in alphabetical order; based upon an analysis of ACH and wire origination and lockbox volumes

Top 5 cash management banks 2


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The distribution of transactions and dollar flows are very different; most transactions are cash, but most spending is by check and ACH 1

1Our model excludes the vast majority of wire transfer dollars in an effort to approximate customer payments activity rather than financial institution settlement transactions (e.g., broker-dealer settlement). Flows through Fedwire alone ($518.5 trillion in 2005) are more than seven times greater than all other instruments combined.2Reflects checks paid, not checks written. Checks converted to ACH are counted in ACH. This convention is used throughout3Includes wire transfer, book entry transfer, and electronic money transfer (EMT) via MoneyGram, Western Union, etc.

8

18

24

26

33

139

$1,277

$2,355

$40,533

$2,116

$36,089

$14,496

2008 transactions248 billion

2008 dollar flows$96,865 billion

Cash

Check 2

Credit Card

ACH

Debit Card

Other3

C2B84% B2B72%

SOURCE: McKinsey US Payments Map, 2008-2013, release Q4-09


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Contents



– Growth is slow (but returning)

– Banks are refocusing on client experience

– Security/Fraud Prevention is paramount


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Mixed signals about the economy continues to create uncertainty for both corporates and bankers

$1.84 Trillion in Cash: A RationalResponse to Challenging EconomicCircumstancesCHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The Federal Reserve today reported corporate cash isstill hovering at record high levels of $1.84 trillion – almost identical to last quarter.However, cash remains 29% higher than it was just 18 months ago.

SOURCE: DigitalTransactions Newsletter, CNN, Sept 20, 2010.

News from the same week…


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As with corporates and banks, the biggest challenge continues to be topline revenue growth

SOURCE: McKinsey Quarterly Economic Conditions Snapshot, September 2010, BEA, 2010.


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Commercial customers are focused on safety of principal and the need for liquidity to fund operations

SOURCE: AFP Liquidity Surveys, 2007, 2008 and 2009; AFP Exchange, November 2009

1.9

9.2

27.1

31.830.9

37.2

+384%

+37%+3%

Most important cash investment policy objectivePercentage of organizations prioritizing each

24

23

7584

15 16Return

Safety of

principal

Liquidity

20092008

02

2007

61%

Profile of organizations’ short-term investmentsPercentage of total invested in each product

Bank deposits Treasury billsMoney market mutual funds

2007 2009 2007 2009 2007 2009

“It was all about saftey and liquidity this past year. Those investment vehicles that were perceived as safe and liquid were not as safe and liquid as we thought”- Assistant Treasurer of a manufacturing and distribution corporation

“..if you want to go for ultimate security you go for treasuries….(t)hey have virtually no return but you are not trying to get that last basis point of interest.”- VP Global Treasurer of a major retailer


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ESTIMATES

SOURCE: McKinsey US Payments Map, 2009-2014, Q2-10 Release

18 16 15 16 19 21 24

2322 23 23

2425

264

+7% p.a.

2014F

75

3

22

2013F

70

3

21

2012F

65

3

19

2011F

60

3

17

2010F

58

16

2009

56

4

15

2008

59

2

16

1 Cash management includes all commercial payment and DDA revenues for large corporate, mid-market, SME and public sector entities. Does not include private label cards and excludes merchant services

Commercial DDA (NII)

Cash management fees

Commercial card (NII)

Commercial card (fees)

3.1

-̀7

8.3

12.4

CAGR (’10 -’14)Percent

US cash management revenue1

$ Billions

Cash management has weathered the banking crisis well and is poised for several years of steady growth


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|SOURCE: McKinsey US Payments Map, 2008-13 Scenario 2, release Q4-09; McKinsey 2008 Corporate Treasury Needs Study

Commercial use of ACH has increased steadily over the past five years, and US firms plan to continue increasing their use of ACH

ACH’s share of Bus/Gov paymentsPercent

45%

40

35

30

25

0

transactions

$ flows

090807062005

US firms’ plans to adopt ACH credit useCAGR, 2008-10

B2B Payments 12%

Tax Payments 2%

Payroll 6%


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Commercial card use declined significantly during the recession, but growth will return in 2010 and beyond

SOURCE: McKinsey US Payments Map, 2008-13 Scenario 2, release Q4-09; Nilson; Team analysis

Commercial card spend Billions USD

20130

1211100908

200

070605042003

400

600

800

$1,000 ▪ Commercial spending slows: Share growth in commercial card spending has been insufficient to offset broad slowdown in B2B spending; commercial card spending dropped 10% 2008-09.

▪ T&E expenses evaporate: Easy targets for cost reductions travel budgets were slashed during the recession, dramatically reducing commercial card spend.

2008-10: Commercial card trends

Post-recession, commercial spending and access to credit will improve. Cards will continue to displace spend from other instruments. We forecast double-digit growth in commercial card spend 2010-13.

Futureoutlook


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TR

AN

SA

CT

ION

SIZ

E

Traditional

PCard

Programs

Straight Through

Card Payments

& AP Automation

TRANSACTION FREQUENCY

SP

EN

D P

ER

SU

PP

LIE

R

Ghost Card Programs

Commercial card solutions are moving up the AP spectrum to become more easily leveraged by companies for B2B payments

SOURCE: Global Concepts Cash Management Forum, 2010.


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In March, Global Concepts found that a majority of bankers thought that Reg Q repeal was unlikely to happen in 2010

SOURCE: Cash Management Forum Research, March 2010.

The reforming of a rule that does not allow banks to pay interest on commercial checking accounts does not seem to have much chance of being repealed in 2010; however, more banks see the liklihood “creeping up” in 2011.

How likely do think it will be that Reg Q will be repealed in 2010?Responses

00

1

0

2

10

4

31 2 6 74 5Won’t Happen

WillHappen

How likely do think it will be that Reg Q will be repealed in 2011?Responses

0

2

0

3

5

7

0

31 2 6 74 5Won’t Happen

WillHappen


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In July, the passage of the financial reform included the repeal of Reg Q which will impact corporate investment policies and commercial DDAs

The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act

Key Provisions affecting cash management:

▪ TITLE III—TRANSFER OF POWERS TO THE COMPTROLLER OF THE CURRENCY, THE CORPORATION, AND THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS▪ SEC. 335. PERMANENT INCREASE IN DEPOSIT AND SHARE INSURANCE.

– Permanently increases coverage on demand deposit accounts to $250K

▪ TITLE VI—IMPROVEMENTS TO REGULATION OF BANK AND SAVINGS ASSOCIATION HOLDING COMPANIES AND DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS▪ SEC. 627. INTEREST-BEARING TRANSACTION ACCOUNTS AUTHORIZED.

– Interest can now be paid on commercial DDA accounts (fully repealing Reg Q)

SOURCE: McKinsey/Global Concepts, 2010.


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Due to a long-standing and now repealed prohibition on DDA interest, the US commercial DDA market has evolved differently than others

SOURCE: McKinsey US Payments Map, McKinsey Global Payments Map, Global Concepts

History & impact of Regulation Q

Commercial DDA revenue by source% of total; 2008▪ Unlike most other countries, the US does not allow

interest payments on commercial demand deposits

▪ The payment of interest is forbidden by the Federal Reserve’s Regulation Q, enacted in 1933

▪ However the Dodd act will enable banks to pay interest for commercial deposits

▪ Due to not paying interest on demand deposits:

– The opportunity cost of keeping excess cash in deposits is relatively high and corporate liquidity has been more likely to leave the US banking sector for secondary markets

– US banks developed a complex suite of cash management products and account types designed reduce the funds held in DDAs (e.g., sweeps, ZBAs, Repo’s)

Due in part to Reg. Q, US banks have tended to derive more revenue from fee income as corporate customers sweep balances into money markets and higher yielding time deposits

43%67%

56% 58%

57%33%

44% 42%

USA EUCanada Asia/

Pacific

100%

NIIFees


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The repeal of Reg Q will lead to three potential different scenarios based on the strength of the economic recovery

Low Moderate High

Lo

wM

od

era

teH

igh

Supply of funds

De

ma

nd

fo

r fu

nd

s

Status quo – commercial banks w/ deposits stockpiles; low demand for credit and risk averse lenders

Deposit boom – strong economic recovery; wholesale funding markets fail to rebound driving strong competition for deposit funding

SME shift – attacker funding demand remains moderate; incumbents willing to bleed off deposits vs. raising rates

DDA innovation – expanding credit demand drives broader competition for DDA pool beyond small business; funding keeps pace with demand, moderating interest rates

Industry’s relative supply / demand for funding ▪ With moderate recovery, the large un-deployed funding base among deposit rich institutions should meet credit demand; deposit rich banks are likely to bleed off excess deposits rather than raise interest rates in response to attackers.

▪ Strong economic recovery and growth in credit demand will increase demand for funding; if wholesale funding markets fail to rebound, strong demand for funding could push deposit interest rates up.

▪ SME shift is less contingent the state of capital markets and could happen with only a moderate recovery.

▪ DDA innovation and Deposit boom scenarios are both contingent upon the external environment and speed of recovery in capital markets.

SOURCE: McKinsey Global Concepts

Most likely scenarios in next 24 months

More likely scenarios in 2012 and later


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In July, the majority of bankers polled anticipate paying DDA interest due to the repeal of Reg Q but are uncertain of the post regulatory product mix

Do you anticipate paying interest on demand deposit accounts for business customers?

% of responses

SOURCE: Cash Management Forum Research, July 2010.

25

71

No

4Undecided

Yes

How do you plan to value deposit balances on interest bearing demand deposit accounts?

% of responses

50 50

Traditional Methods

TBD

56

40

41

What will be your default commercial DDA offering?

% of responses

Interest-only DDA

Undecided

Traditional DDA w/ ECR

Hybrid (ECR & Interest)

5633

011

New customers Existing customers

Do you plan to offer all three account types?

% of responses

46

46TBD

Yes

8

No


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Other regulations will also impact banks (as well as corporates)

SOURCE: McKinsey Global Concepts

Affects

▪ Regulated banks, brokers/dealers, and insurance companies with assets of at least $25B

▪ Value of commercial deposits much higher in terms of stability than other sources of market funding

▪ Operational costs of banks for gathering deposits

▪ Banks are able to pass along a portion of fees assessed by the FDIC for insurance (typically through account analysis)

Basel III

▪ Proposal to increase capital requirements for counterparty credit risk

▪ Internal models to calculate counterparty credit risk (CCR) exposures do not take into account sufficiently the potential volatility and illiquidity of markets

FDIC Insurance

▪ Unlimited insurance (TAG) on non-interest bearing transaction accounts

▪ Permanent coverage of $250K for all accounts

▪ Assessments of FDIC premiums will be assessed more heavily based on Assets.

Affects Affects

▪ MMF Funds and corporate investment policies

▪ Releasing the shadow NAV on a 60 day lag basis willhave an impact on organizations investment decisions

2a-7 Money Fund Change

▪ MMF must disclose the shadow net asset value (NAV) --basically mark-to-market value--of the fund

▪ Potential headline risk for a fund even after 60 days when the shadow NAV is released


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Contents







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Top 25% areas

Second 25% areas

Bottom 50% areas

In which of the following areas would you value improvements the most?% responding high or very high

$5–25m $25–100m $100-500m

Reporting capabilities

Intuitive, easy to use products and services

System availability and reliability

Data integration and ability to interact with your systems

Receivables

Liquidity and Concentration

Payables

International and F/X

84

82

84

83

74

57

49

53

30

90

88

86

86

80

65

67

62

42

87

89

84

82

75

71

67

60

51

86

86

84

84

76

64

60

58

41

Overall Breakdown by revenue segments

Online access

SOURCE: McKinsey Cash Management Survey

Providers need to be aware of:▪ The

difference between must-haves vs. nice-to-features

▪ How this varies by targeted segment

▪ How to prioritize investments

The most highly demanded product improvements for all market segments are related to online delivery systems


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Improving the onboarding/account maintenance process with self-service and more recently eBAM

• Slow • Low integration

• Expensive • Low satisfaction

Fax

Paper

Today

• Visibility & Control• Automate/STP

• Efficient Workflows• Security/Digital Signing

Tomorrow

ISO Std. XML messages & Supporting documents

Internet

Bank Portal

SOURCE: Cash Management Forum (Identrust & Bank of America), 2010.


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By the end of 2012, most banks intend to adopt new electronic products and channels

SOURCE: McKinsey/Global Concepts, 2010 Cash Management Forum TM Study.

Remote Currency Management Solution 32%

Positive Pay with Payee Line Detail 33%

Healthcare Lockbox Services/EOB administration 38%

Invoice Origination from online banking 47%

Payables Automation/Integrated Payables 50%

Web-based Cash Forecasting 53%

Mobile Phone Payment Initiation/Approval 60%

Mobile Phone Banking 60%

Products Banks “Plan” to Adopt by 2012Profiled Banks


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Corporate treasurers are showing a great interest in same-day ACH (debit origination), with over 2x the demand growth of any other product

SOURCE: Global Concepts Corporate Treasury Needs 2010

ACH debit filters 2555 45

Remote deposit 2651 49

ACH - converted checks 53 47

Purchase to pay automation 28

27

57 43

ACH - same-day debit 6683 17

Top 5 growth products: $100 - 499MM% of firms adopting in next 24 months;

Top 5 growth products: $500MM - 1.5B% of firms adopting in next 24 months

Top 5 growth products: All firms% of firms adopting in next 24 months

Top-5 products differ by size segment:

▪ $100 - 499MM: In addition to same-day ACH debit, payables and receivables electronification products comprise the top-5

▪ $500MM - 1.5B: “Next generation” treasury products dominate, including web cash forecasting and a variety of mobile services

54 46

53 47

ACH - same-day debit 66

Purchase to pay automation 28

82% 18

ACH - converted checks 24

Mobile - Approve payments 24

Remote deposit 24

46 54

47 53

Mobile - View balances 34

Mobile alerts 29

36 64

45 55

Web cash forecasting 35

Mobile - Approve payments 33

52 48

54 46

ACH - same-day debit 6282 18

0-12 Months

13-24 Months

Adoption timeline:


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Contents







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A multiplicity of threats requires a comprehensive approach to risk management

▪ Online fraud

– Phishing, spear phishing and malware

– Account takeover

– Man in the middle attacks

▪ Check fraud

– Check alteration

– Hybrid attacks

– The positive pay imperative

▪ Multi-channel risk

– Remote deposit, ACH origination, wire and merchant limits

– AML/OFAC screening

SOURCE: Global Concepts analysis


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|SOURCE: Global Concepts, Cash Management Forum 2010.

Spear Phising Attack: BBB


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Banking Platform Customer 1

2. Spear PhishingAttacks to executives(FDIC, IRS, Bank emails)

Keystroke

logging

Remote

access

Sess

ion

hija

ckin

g

Infectedemail

Customer 2

3. Account Access – Defeat Strong Authentication

Have your credentials Can use customer machine/sessions

• Look for peak balance• Evaluate account

privileges• Account processes

Cus

tom

er A

ccou

nt4. AccountReconnaissance Customer 3

5. ACH BatchMultiple <$10K payments to many mules across multiple financial institutions

Mule banks

6. Mules instantly wire money out

1. Fraudsters target and research your bank, your banking platform and your customers

Spear Phishing and Money Mules

SOURCE: Global Concepts, Cash Management Forum 2010.


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Initiate ACH and wire transfer payments under dual control

Online commercial banking customers execute all online banking activities from a dedicated, stand-alone, and completely locked down computer system from where email and web browsing are not possible.

Limiting administrative rights on users’ workstations to prevent inadvertent downloading of malware

Reconcile all banking transactions on a daily basis.

Financial institutions should also implement an awareness communications program to advise customers of current threats and fraud activities

FBI, NACHA, FS-ISAC recommendations to prevent online fraud for corporate users



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FIs implement appropriate fraud detection and mitigation best practices including particularly transaction risk profiling.

FIs consider using manual or automated Out-Of-Band authentication systems in concert with fraud detection systems.

Such OOB solutions many include manual client callback or automated solutions SMS text messaging, Interactive Voice Response system callback to a known phone number with a PIN code and similar solutions.

FBI, NACHA, FS-ISAC recommendations to prevent online fraud for financial institutions



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Predictive Behavioral Analysis for Each Account• Learns unique behavior of each individual• Raises alert when something unusual for that

individual occurs

Maximum detection, minimal alerts• Only get alerts when risk factors combine to create

high risk score• Looking at all attributes and activities – catch

account reconnaissance

Fast and Intelligent Forensics• Detailed behavioral history• Fraud matching across accounts

Low maintenance• No rules• No change to client experience• Don’t need to know fraud patterns


Transaction Risk Monitoring


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An Out of Band, Multi-Factor form of authentication that allows you to use your office, home or cell phone as the second factor of authentication.

When accessing on-line banking business customers receive a phone call asking the user to enter a security code or PIN into the phone that is displayed on the computer screen.

Entering a code into the phone makes OOBA a completely out of band authentication

Provides strong two-key authentication by requiring the use of two different networks to gain access; Internet & phone

Companies don’t have to spend time coordinating the issuing, mailing, and servicing a token or device

Instant attack detection

If account is comprised access can be immediately blocked and notify banks security department

Out of Band Authentication



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Questions

Matt Ribbens, CTPExpert+1 (678) [email protected]

Documents

Key Trends in Treasury Management McKinsey & Company, Global Concepts Office Matt Ribbens, CTP CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without