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8/13/2019 Key Findgs of the IPCC
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© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude
Key Findings of the IPCC WG1 AR5Key Findings of the IPCC WG1 AR5
Fredolin Tangang
IPCC WG1 Vice-Chair
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IPCC WG1 AR5 Climate Change 2013: The
Physical Science Basis
• The IPCC has released its WG1
AR5 Climate Change 2013: ThePhysical Science Basis on 27 Sept
2013 in Stockholm S!eden
• The S"mmar# $or Polic#makers
%SP&' can (e do!nloaded $rom
the IPCC !e(site
http)**!!!+ipcc+ch and
!!!+climatechan,e2013+or,
• This lect"re hi,hli,hts ke#
$indin,s o$ the report -SP& TS
.nderl#in, chapters/
Cover Pa
ge: Folgefonna glacier on the high plateaus of Sørfjorden,
Norway (6°!"# N, 6°""# $%&
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• IPCC) istorical perspecties role
$"nctions
• e# $indin,s (ased on o(serations
• 4etection and attri("tion
• "t"re climate pro6ections• S"mmar#
"tline
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Inter-governmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
• IPCC plenar# comprises o$ all
co"ntries in the !orld
• IPCC 8"rea" comprises o$ 30
elected mem(ers !ith aria(le
n"m(ers $or each o$ the W&
re,ion9 IPCC elects its ("rea"mem(ers once in a :;7 #ears c#cle
• 3 !orkin, ,ro"ps a Task orce
on <GGI
• A"thors Contri("tors Reie!ers
Reie! =ditors
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Inter-governmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
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Why IPCC?• Prior to the establishment of IPCC, growing number of literatures
indicate the Earth’s climate system is warming due to increasingGHG concentration in atmosphere
• Independent, objective, fair and transparent assessment of the stateof global climate system is required
• or this reason .nited <ations General Assem(l# %.<GA' >2 proposed theesta(lishment o$ IPCC and in 1?@@ IPCC !as esta(lished "nder W& and
.<=P
• The IPCC provides such assessment and this becomes the sourceof information particularly to policy makers and UNFCCC on 1.Causes of climate change, 2. Potential impacts on built and natural
systems and socio-economic, 3. Possible response options.
• IPCC had published 5 assessment reports and various other reports.The latest is the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), which wasreleased on Sept 27, 2013, in Stockholm, Sweden.
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IPCC Reports
FAR 1990 SAR 1995 TAR 2001 AR4 2007 AR5 2013
IPCC had produced 5 Assessment Reports plus several otherspecial reports including the recently released SREX & SRREN.
SREX (2012)SRREN (2011)
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How IPCC produces these reports?
Independentresearch,
Knowledge
generation,publication ofliteratures by
Scientificcommunity
IPCC doesn’t involveat this stage
IPCCAssessment
Process
IPCCAssessmentReport
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IPCC Assessment Process
IPCC assessment is (ased on aaila(le
peer;reie!ed p"(lications
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Key SPM Messages
19 Headlineson less than 2 Pages
10
2009:WGI Outline Approved
14 Chapters
Atlas of Regional Projections
54,677 Review Commentsby 1089 Experts
2010: 259 Authors Selected
Summary for Policymakers~14,000 Words
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The Relatie Comprehensieness o$
IPCC WG1 AR5
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Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many ofthe observed changes are unprecedented
over decades to millennia. The atmosphereand ocean have warmed, the amounts ofsnow and ice have diminished, sea level
has risen, and the concentrations ofgreenhouse gases have increased
Key Statement / Headline ofIPCC WG1 AR5 SPM
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( I P C C
2 0 1 3
, F i g
. S P M
. 1 a
)
Each of the last three
decades has beensuccessively warmer at the
Earth’s surface than anypreceding decade since
1850.
In the NorthernHemisphere, 1983–2012
was likely the warmest 30-
year period of the last 1400years (medium confidence )
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Warming in the climate system is unequivocal
( I P C C
2 0 1 3 ,
F i g
. S P M
. 1 b )
Over SEA increase
trend ~ 1.0oC percentury
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Evidence from Paleoclimate Archives
I P C C
2 0 1 3
; F i g 5
. 7 a
)
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( I P C C
2 0 1 3 ;
F i g
5 . 8
a )
Continental-scale surface temperature reconstructions show, with high confidence ,
multi- decadal periods during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (year 950 to 1250) thatwere in some regions as warm as in the late 20th century. These regional warm
periods did not occur as coherently across regions as the warming in the late 20th
century (high confidence )
Evidence from Paleoclimate Archives & Climate
Simulation
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Temperature Ocean heat content
Sea Level Snow Cover
Glacier Arctic Sea-ice extent
( I P C C
2 0 1 3 .
F i g T S . 1
)
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( I P C C
2 0 1
3 .
F i g S P M . 2
)
Wetter region gets morewetter and drier gets more
drier since the second halfof the 20th century
Extreme weather & climate
events became morefrequent
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( I P C C
2 0 1
3 .
F i g T S . 3
)Glaciers and ice melting
has accelerated in
unprecedented speed inthe last decade
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40% increase sincepre-industrial period
Ocean observed30% of theseemitted CO2
The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2),methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased to
levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.
( I P C C
2 0 1
3 .
F i g S P M
. 4 a
)
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Ocean became more acidic
( I P C C
2 0 1 3
. F i g S P M
. 4 b )
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Contribution by Category to CO2
Emission
( I P C C
2 0 1
3 .
F i g T S . 4
)
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• Except volcanic,changesgradual
• Anthro. fastersince ~1970,CO2 largestevery decade
since 1960s
• Time-averagednatural forcingsmall
( I P C
C
2 0 1 3 .
F i g 8 . 1 8
)
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Earth has been in radiative imbalance,with more energy from the sun enteringthan exiting the top of the atmosphere,
since at least circa 1970. It is virtuallycertain that Earth has gained substantial
energy from 1971–2010.
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Detection and Attribution
( I P C C
2 0 1
3 .
F i g 1 . 1
3 )
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• Periods of little orno warming can
arise from internal
variability
• Internal variabilitycauses to a
substantial degreethe difference
between theobservations andthe simulations
(medium
confidence )
( I P C C
2 0 1
3 . B o x
T S . 3
F i g . 1
)
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Natural + Anthropogenic Natural CO2 forcing only
Climate Models Responses to Various
Forcings
( I P C C
2 0 1
3 .
F i g T S . 9
)
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Human influence on the
climate system is clear ( I P C C
2 0 1
3 .
F i g S P M . 6
)
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Future Climate Projections
For future climateprojections, climate
models requires Emission
Scenarios. Models in AR5use Representative
Concentration Pathway(RCP)
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RCP= RepresentativeConcentration Pathway
( I P C C
2 0 1
3 .
B o x T S . 6
)
Indicative Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing (RF)
for RCPs
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The temperature increase during the last100 years was only about 0.8 o C.
Projected Global Average Temperature Change by end of21st Century
( I P C C
2 0 1 3 .
F i g S P M . 7 a )
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The temperature increase during the last
100 years is only about 0.8 o C.
Projected Global Average Temperature Change by end of
21
st
Century
3-4oC projectedincrease overSoutheast Asia
region
( I P C C
2 0 1 3 .
F i g S P M . 8 a )
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Projected Precipitation Change by end of
21st CenturySome regions will becomemore wetter and others
become more drier. Extremeprecipitation events over wet
tropical regions will very likelybecome more intense and more
frequent
( I P C C
2 0 1 3 .
F i g S P M . 8
b )
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( I
P C C
2 0 1 3 .
F i g S P M . 8 c )Arctic will be
nearly ice-free by
the end of the 21st
century
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Ocean will be
more acidic bythe end of the 21st
century ( I P C C
2 0 1 3 .
F i g T S . 2
0 b )
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• There is high confidence
that ENSO will remainthe dominant mode ofinterannual variability inthe tropical Pacific, with
global effects in the 21stcentury.
• Due to the increase inmoisture availability,ENSO-relatedprecipitation variability
on regional scales willlikely intensify.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)
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Global mean sea level will continue torise during the 21st century
( I P C C
2 0 1 3
, F
i g .
S P M
. 9 )
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I P C C 2 0
1 3 F i g 1 3
. 2 0 b
0.4-0.6 mprojected SLRaround
Southeast Asiaregion
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Limiting climate change will require substantial andsustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions
( I P C C
2 0 1 3
, F
i g .
S P M
. 1 0 )
RCP2 6 would be the Emission Scenario to follow if we
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RCP2.6 would be the Emission Scenario to follow if wewere to cap warming at 2oC
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SUMMARY
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many ofthe observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.
• The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice havediminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhousegases have increased
• Human influence on the climate system is clear
• Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming andchanges in all components of the climate system.
• Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likelyto exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except
RCP2.6.
• Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions ofgreenhouse gas emissions
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© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude
www.climatechange2013.orgwww.climatechange2013.orgFurther InformationFurther Information