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With the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election today, I thought it was time to get a

little political. Election Day in the United States, November 6, is less than six months

away and the campaigns are in full swing, so now’s a good time to weigh in on the U.S.

presidential race.

In spite of the incumbent status of President Barack Obama, a Democrat, the U.S.

presidential race is more competitive this year than it has been since the 2000 Election. The presumptive Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, is virtually tied with the president

in public opinion polls. RealClearPolitics’ Poll Average on June 5 showed President

Obama leading Romney by an average 2%, a decrease from 4% on April 25. This is

within the 2-3% margin of error and puts the two candidates in a statistical dead heat.

Based on poll trends, we’re in for a close finish. 

Here’s my objective analysis of how key events likely to occur between now and Election

Day could give an advantage to Obama or Romney. Where there’s no clear favorite, I

called it a “Toss Up.” I am not predicting who will win the presidency. Watch how

Obama and Romney fare in the aftermath of these milestones, and you’ll have a better 

idea of who will win. As the 2008 Election demonstrated, announcements such as thecollapse of Lehman Brothers and the naming of  Sarah Palin as John McCain’s vice

 presidential candidate influenced the election. This year’s contest will be no different, and

the race is close enough that a single event, such as a seismic jobs report or an

international incident, could shift the balance in favor of one candidate.

June 4, 2012: North Korea threatens to attack South Korean media outlets in Seoul 

 Advantage: Obama. North Korea (DPRK) warned that its troops have aimed artillery at

South Korean media groups and threatened a "merciless sacred war" after the outlets

criticized children’s celebrations in Pyongyang. While North Korea often makes vague

statements threatening South Korea and the United States with utter destruction, thiswarning specifically mentioned the longitude and latitude of the locations of seven media

outfits in Seoul. While the chance that the DPRK will take military action against the

South before November 6 is slim, North Korea has been known to take advantage of a

political situation to make a statement as it did in November 2010 when it shelled

Yeonpyeong Island. The lower the tensions between the two Koreas, the better for

Obama. A pre-election attack on the Korean Peninsula would put him in a difficult

political situation at a bad time.

June 6, 2012: Wisconsin recall election between Governor Scott Walker (R) and

Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) 

 Advantage: Romney. Polls and most political commentators believe that incumbent

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker will win by a sizeable margin and may provide a bump

for Romney in Wisconsin, a key swing state. Obama defeated McCain by a wide margin

in 2008. Many commentators have indicated that the state may be in play with a larger

Republican turnout in November energized by the recall election, and early exit polls

show the race tightening to +6 for Obama, a 2-point decrease from the national poll

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average. Given that Obama won the state in 2008 by 12 points, his support in Wisconsin -

- and perhaps in other states he carried in 2008 -- has waned.

June 8, 2012: International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) talks with Iran over

its Nuclear Program 

 Advantage: Obama. Talks with Iran over its nuclear program are ongoing, and Iran’sadmission that the Flame virus caused a massive data loss on its computer networks

should be a setback for its nuclear program. Iran will continue to be a foreign policy

priority for the United States but is likely to have little or no impact on the U.S. Election.

The perception that the United States was involved in Flame’s creation -- whether true or

not -- may help or hurt Obama’s image. 

June 17, 2012: Greek Legislative Election 

 Advantage: Romney. After a political stalemate in May when the Greeks were unable to

form a new government, new elections were called in Greece for June 17. The chance that

this round will go better is low, and the results may send new shockwaves through thefinancial markets, especially if minor parties such as Syriza make substantial gains.

Ongoing issues over Greek debt will continue to weigh down the Eurozone. While the

likelihood that Greece exits the euro and destabilizes the Eurozone before the U.S.

Election is small, the country will continue to make news through the campaign period,

and much of it won’t help Obama’s efforts to stimulate the U.S. economy. 

June 20-24, 2012: The Supreme Court rules on the constitutionality of the Patient

Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) 

 Advantage: Toss Up. If the Supreme Court declares the PPACA unconstitutional or

strikes down the individual insurance mandate, it will generally be viewed as a setback 

for the president because the law is considered one of his major legislative achievements.

Views on whether this will happen vary. According to the Wall Street Journal, just 35%

of legal experts who have argued cases believed the Court would strike down the

mandate. As of June 5, the sentiment at Intrade put the odds that the mandate will be

rejected at 65.3%. If it’s upheld, it will benefit Obama; if overturned, it will be a blow to

his reelection campaign.

July 6, 2012: June Employment Situation Report released 

 Advantage: Romney. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly jobs

report for June. The May report released on June 1 showed signs of  decreased job growth,

higher unemployment, and a downward revision of the March and April job reports.Given this trend, it’s likely that the June report won’t be much better and will be bad

news for Obama.

July 20, 2012: UN action (or inaction) on Syria 

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 Advantage: Romney. With the violence and unrest in Syria continuing, calls for UN

action have increased. The mandate of the UN observer mission ends on July 20, and

 pressure is mounting for the UN Security Council to take action to “restore international

 peace and security” per  Chapter VII of the UN Charter. Either scenario -- failure to

respond to continued violence against civilians in Syria or direct intervention in Syria as

happened in Libya -- puts the president in a difficult political position at a bad time.

July 27, 2012: Second Quarter 2012 Advance GDP Report released 

 Advantage: Toss Up. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) 

will release its advance report on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second

quarter (Q2) of 2012. It may affect the race if it differs substantially from the 2.2% GDP

forecasted for the United States in Q2.

August 3, 2012: July Employment Situation Report released 

 Advantage: Toss Up. BLS will release its monthly jobs report for July. The previous

report will give some clues as to whether this helps Obama or Romney. It’s too early totell whether it will follow the March-May downward trend.

Mid-August, 2012: Romney announces running mate / vice presidential candidate 

 Advantage: Romney. Several prominent names have been mentioned as Romney’s

running mate; most are from swing states. The announcement will provide a quick 

bounce for Romney. If the candidate is strong and/or hails from a swing state, they will

bolster the ticket. If they become a liability, this will be reflected in polls in September

and/or October.

August 27-30, 2012: Republican National Convention begins in Tampa, Florida 

 Advantage: Romney. The Republican Party will host the convention in a state Obama

won in 2008 and is a key battleground state in 2012. A presidential candidate usually has

a bounce of several percentage points in the polls following a party convention.

August 29, 2012: Second Quarter 2012 Preliminary GDP Report released 

 Advantage: Toss Up. The BEA will release its preliminary report on GDP growth in 2Q

2012. It may affect the race if it differs substantially from the 2.2% GDP forecasted for

the United States in Q2.

September 3-6, 2012: Democratic National Convention begins in Charlotte, North

Carolina 

 Advantage: Obama. The Democratic Party will host the convention in a state Obama won

in 2008 and is important to his reelection in 2012. The candidate usually has a bounce of 

several percentage points in the polls following a party convention.

September 7, 2012: August Employment Situation Report released 

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 Advantage: Toss Up. BLS will release its monthly jobs report for August. The previous

report will give some clues as to whether this helps Obama or Romney. It’s too early to

tell whether it will follow the March-May downward trend.

October 2012 - March 2013: 12th National People’s Congress convenes 

 Advantage: Romney. The People’s Republic of China will choose a new NationalPeople’s Congress (NPC) and elect a new president. Xi Jinping will likely succeed

President Hu Jintao in March 2013. However, the political situation in China is usually

tense in the lead up to this transition. The situation is particularly contentious this year

with the scandal surrounding Bo Xilai and recent events involving dissident Chen

Guangcheng. Recent events such as the handling of Chen’s case by the Obama

administration and crackdown of foreigners in China indicate that U.S.-Chinese relations

may be rocky until the transition period has ended. While Obama could score some points

by engaging China on issues such as military cooperation, much could go wrong for him

in the year ahead.

October 5, 2012: September Employment Situation Report released 

 Advantage: Toss Up. BLS will release its monthly jobs report for September. The

 previous report will give some clues as to whether this helps Obama or Romney. It’s too

early to tell whether it will follow the March-May downward trend.

October 7, 2012: Venezuelan Presidential Election 

 Advantage: Obama. The outcome of the race between incumbent President Hugo Chávez

and Henrique Capriles of the opposition First Justice Party depends on whether Chávez,

who has cancer, is healthy enough to stand for re-election. Various scenarios have been

debated, but most point to political change in Venezuela after October that may benefit

Obama. A Capriles victory, a Chávez successor, or a more moderate Chávez should lead

to an improved U.S.-Venezuelan relationship.

October 26, 2012: Third Quarter 2012 Advance GDP Report released 

 Advantage: Toss Up. The BEA will release its advance report on GDP growth in 3Q

2012. It may be help either candidate if it differs substantially from the 2.6% GDP

forecasted for the United States in Q3.

November 2, 2012: October Employment Situation Report released 

 Advantage: Toss Up. BLS will release its monthly jobs report for October. The previousreport will give some clues as to whether this helps Obama or Romney. It’s too early to

tell whether it will follow the March-May downward trend.

November 6, 2012: U.S. Election Day 

 Advantage: Toss Up. As of this writing, President Obama has the advantage of 

incumbency and is leading in more battleground states than Romney. However, with his

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RCP Average approval rating at 47.8 and a tightened race, it’s far from certain that

Obama will win reelection. Romney has emerged from a heated battle for the Republican

nomination in a strong position and can look forward to a number of key events that

could work to his advantage. Any of the ones mentioned above – or an unforeseen crisis –  

has the potential to tip the balance in either candidate’s favor come November. Count on

it.

 M.G. Edwards is a former U.S. diplomat who served in South

Korea, Paraguay, and Zambia. He was democracy, elections, and 

governance officer for the U.S. Mission to Zambia from 2009 to

2011.

 A writer of books and stories in the mystery, thriller and science

 fiction-fantasy genres. He also writes travel adventures. He is

author of   Kilimanjaro: One Man’s Quest to Go Over the Hill  , a

non-fiction account of his attempt to summit Mount Kilimanjaro,

 Africa’s highest mountain. His collection of short st ories called 

 Real Dreams: Thirty Years of Short Stories available as an e-book 

and in print on  Amazon.com. He lives in Bangkok, Thailand with his wife Jing and son

 Alex. 

For more books or stories by M.G. Edwards, visit his web site at  www.mgedwards.com 

or his blog, World Adventurers. Contact him at  me@mgedwards.com , on Facebook  , on

Google+ , or  @m_g_edwards on Twitter. 

© 2012 Brilliance Press. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or 

transmitted without the written consent of the author .