Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Kenya – Politics 2013http://understandingthehorn.org/
Leonardo R. ArriolaAssociate ProfessorDepartment of Political ScienceUniversity of California, Berkeley
Prepared 4 March 2013
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
A research puzzleThese slides were prepared for a general discussion on Kenyan politics in the Spring of 2013 just before the elections and present a research puzzle:
Are Kenya politics really about ethnic conflict? Read the following articles and news sites for more context and background:• Mueller, Susanne D. 2008. "The Political Economy of Kenya's Crisis." Journal of
Eastern African Studies 2 (2): 185-210.• Branch, Daniel, and Nic Cheeseman. 2009. "
Democratization, Sequencing, and State Failure in Africa: Lessons from Kenya." African Affairs 108 (430): 1-26.
• de Smedt, Johan. 2009. "'No Raila, No Peace!' Big Man Politics and Election Violence at the Kibera Grassroots." African Affairs 108 (433): 581-98.
• The Daily Nation elections page: http://elections.nation.co.ke/
For most slides, there are notes. Throughout, there are hyperlinks leading to further information.
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
BBC (March 2013)
Ethnic Balancing in Politics, 1980-2000
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
2007 Election
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Vote Buying and Electoral Violence
Source: Afrobarometer (2010-2011)
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Vote Buying in 2002 & 2007
Source: Afrobarometer (2007 & 2011)
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Money underpins political relationships
Politician PoliticianDonor
Voter
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Politician PoliticianDonor
Voter
Business donors hedge: give money to multiple candidates, regardless of ethnicity or party, to ensure their influence.
Money underpins political relationships
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Money underpins political relationships
Politician PoliticianDonor
Voter
Politicians buy votes: opposition politicians need money to induce support and turnout among voters.
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Money underpins political relationships
Politician PoliticianDonor
Voter
Politicians buy endorsements: opposition politicians need money for cross-ethnic endorsements from other politicians.
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Money underpins political relationships
Politician PoliticianDonor
Voter Voter
Politicians buy endorsements: opposition politicians need money for cross-ethnic endorsements from other politicians.
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Afrobarometer survey data from Kenya (N≈2,000 respondents)
Vote Buying in 2007
Most demographic factors are poor predictors of
vote buying.
Examples: age, sex, education level, rural
vs. urban
During the last national election in 2007, how
often, if ever did a candidate or someone from
a political party offer you something, like food
or a gift or money, in return for your vote?
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Vote Buying in 2007
Best predictors of vote buying relate to income,
behavior, and location.
Unemployed status: likelihood
doubles
Violent act: likelihood doubles
Violent district: likelihood diminishes
Ethnicity: likelihood varies
Province: likelihood varies
Afrobarometer survey data from Kenya (N≈2,000 respondents)
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Predicted probability of experiencing vote buying
for the “average” respondent: 36 year old male
living in a rural area
Vote Buying in 2007
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Vote Buying across Provinces in 2007
Source: Afrobarometer (2011)
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Vote Buying across Ethnic Groups in 2007
Source: Afrobarometer (2011)
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Vote Buying across Ethnic Groups: 2002 vs. 2007
Source: Afrobarometer (2007 & 2011)
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Violence (1997-2012)
Source: ACLED
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
International Criminal Court (ICC) charged four Kenyans with crimes against humanity
Uhuru Kenyatta
MP/Minister
Francis Muthaura
Civil Service Head*
William RutoMP/Minister
Joshua arap Sang
Radio Host
Kenya’s Post-Election Violence in 2008More than 1,000 killed and some 600,000 displaced in a three month
period
*Case dropped by ICC 11 March 2013
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Elite Organization of Violence in Kenya
“The infrastructure of violence was financed
and sustained mainly by local politicians
and businesspeople to support costs such
as transport of attackers, weapons and
other logistics”
- Kenya National Commission on Human Rights,
On the Brink of the Precipice (PEV Report) (2008)KNCHR identified over 200 individuals who allegedly
coordinated the violence, including 21 MPs, 44
businesspeople, and hosts at 5 radio stations
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Violence (Jan-Feb 2013)
Source: ACLED
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Nairobi
Source: Open Street Map
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Nairobi
Source: Open Street Map
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Nairobi: Tweeting the Presidential Debate
Source: M. Graham (2013)
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Multiethnic Coalitions• For more on multiethnic
coalitions, parties and opposition politics, see Leonardo R. Arriola, 2013. Multiethnic Coalitions in Africa: Business Financing of Opposition Election Campaigns. New York: Cambridge University Press.• https://
sites.google.com/site/lrarriola/home/book
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
CREDITSUnderstanding the Horn of Africa
© U
C Re
gent
s 20
13
Understanding the Horn of Africa
An online curriculum project of the Center for African Studies, University of California, Berkeley
This material was developed under a Title VI International Research and Studies grant from the U.S. Department of Education. However, the content does not necessarily represent the policy or views of the U.S. Department of Education, or imply endorsement by the Federal Government.
• Principal Investigator: Leonardo Arriola• Project Coordinator: Martha Saavedra• Project Assistant: Tami Driver,• Web Development: Kim Carl and Howie Lan• Web Designer and Graphics: Casondra Sobieralski• Research assistance: Chelsea Johnson and David Dow
http://understandingthehorn.org/
