Kent’s new structured approach to housing requirements and

using POPGROUP

Debbie Mayes

Kent County Council

Outline of presentation

• History of demographic forecasting in Kent• The need for change• Kent’s new approach – negotiating with 12 districts• Experience of using POPGROUP and the DF model

History of demographic forecasting

• KCC has traditionally used forecasts to inform:1. Spatial planning policy:• Initially County Structure Plan (Kent and Medway Structure Plan)• Subsequently Regional Spatial Strategy (The South East Plan)

2. Service provision planning

• Between 1999 and Feb 2011 forecasts produced using the Chelmer Population and Housing Model

• In-house forecasting ability provides flexibility and range of forecasting approaches

Historical forecasting approach

• Central government projections = trend-based

• The County wanted to understand the impact of:• Longer-term migration trend on housing need• ‘Indigenous’ population growth on housing need• House building scenarios on population growth

• Thus combining population and housing elements• At district level for 12 Kent districts and Medway UA• The Chelmer model provided functionality

The need for change!

• Two main drivers of change to Kent’s forecasting approach:

1. Government revoked all Regional Spatial Strategies

2. Chelmer ceased as an available model for LAs to run in-house

Kent’s new approach….

Negotiating with 12 local district authorities and Medway UA to set housing targets

• Traditionally LAs given housing targets• Now LAs set their own housing targets and not sure how to

go about it!• Kent Planning Officers Group (KPOG) set up a housing

forecasts sub-group• District and county representatives• Identified methodology for determining dwelling numbers• Part of methodology involves forecasts

Kent’s new approach (2)

Negotiating with 12 local district authorities and Medway UA to set housing targets

• Outlined range of forecasting approaches:• Zero Net Migration projection• Migration trend projection• Housing-led forecast• Job-led forecast

• Rather than prescribe a set approach for all, individual LAs could decide on the approach suitable for their district

• Forecasting work led by County Council• Districts commission County on a bespoke basis

Kent’s new approach (3)

Negotiating with 12 local district authorities and Medway UA to set housing targets

• The County Council also has a need to produce county-wide forecasts for service provision planning

• Requirement for this forecast to be strategy-based• No longer an easy task!• With agreement from 12 LAs and Medway, the County

Council has established a county-wide housing provision• Very sensitive issue• Didn’t want work to be seen as a top-down county approach to

future growth given localism agenda

Kent’s new approach…..

To forecasting using POPGROUP and the DF model

• POPGROUP only alternative model available• Satisfied that POPGROUP would offer same functionality

as Chelmer, if not more!• For example:

• Could undertake job-led forecasts• Was a single year based model, not only in terms of forecast

years but also age• Could take account of new household types• Allowed ability to produce disability forecasts, ward forecasts etc• Excel format provides greater transparency

Experience of using POPGROUP

• Built a district level model – 12 LAs and 1 UA

•Initially time-consuming to populate model with

required data (Having lots of areas didn’t help!)

•Access to most of required datasets but requested

some additional detail from CLG/ ONS

•Up and running a housing-led forecast relatively

quickly

Experience of using POPGROUP

• DF model for households/ dwellings easy to set up and populate using new data module

• Required further guidance to produce:- Migration trend (including ZNM) projections- Job-led forecasts (including building the DF model)

• Manual in need of updating

• Very good technical support from Edge Analytics

•User friendly output files–Reporter and charter functionality particularly helpful

Experience of using POPGROUP

• Requires a good folder structure of input/ output files

• Have to run forecast for all areas even if forecast only required for one area (unless separate models created)

• Forecast can take 30mins to produce if derivingboth dwelling/ households and jobs/ labour supply

• However, very useful to be able to derive two components at the same time!

Concluding comments

• POPGROUP has enabled consistency for Kent in terms of forecasting work with added functionality

• It hasn’t been an easy ride!• However, the effort has been worthwhile• Previous forecasting experience was a bonus to produce

what Kent required• Potential for Kent to explore POPGROUP further i.e.

disability and ward level forecasts

Questions?

Debbie Mayes

Senior Researcher (Demography)

Research & Evaluation

Kent County Council

Tel: 01622 221627

Email: debbie.mayes@kent.gov.uk