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IGES International Workshop on a Co‐Benefits Approach
Co‐benefits of energy efficiency in the gy ycontext of climate change mitigation
Kenichi WadaKenichi Wada
Systems Analysis Group,
February 13, 2012
Contents
1. Introduction1. Introduction
2. Potential of Energy Efficiencygy y
3. Efficiency Gap and Barriers
4. Co‐Benefits of Energy Efficiency
5. Policy Instruments
6. Conclusion
1
Introduction
• Global CO2 emissions are growing rapidly and can double by 2050 ith t i t li t h iti ti2050 without appropriate climate change mitigation measures.
• Energy efficiency contributes to reducing energy use and CO2 emissions with negative or very low cost.
• However, most of the opportunities to invest in energy , pp gyefficiency are left behind.
• Why our society cannot achieve the optimal level ofWhy our society cannot achieve the optimal level of efficiency? What are the policy implications? How to realize this significant potential through the deployment of morethis significant potential through the deployment of more efficient technologies?
2
Potential of Energy Efficiency in 2020
CCS: from coal or gas power plant into oil well by EOR operation, deep saline aquifer, depleted y p , p q , pgas well etc.
CCS: from coal power plant into oil well by EOR operation
Efficiency improvement of ICEVDiffusion of HEVDiffusion of biofuel ICEV
f
Efficiency improvement of coal and gas power plant
Improvement of transport infrastructure Wind power
Nuclear power
coal and gas power plant
Efficiency improvement of coal and gas power plant (energy saving)Fuel switching from coal to gas (energy saving & fuel switching)
Diffusion of CDQ, TRT, etc. Efficiency improvement of air‐conditioner [S ] RITE
386% increase 42% increase
High efficiency BF‐BOF/Scrap‐EAFEfficiency improvement of air‐conditioner, television and various appliances
relative to 2005 level relative to 2005 level
[Source] RITE
Global CO2 Emissions Trajectory with Different Carbon Prices
45000
50000
35000
40000n [M
tCO2/yr]
20000
25000
30000
CO2 Em
ission
TF Scenario
10000
15000
20000
nergy‐related TF Scenario
$0/tCO2$20/tCO2$40/tCO2$60/tCO2
0
5000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
En
$60/tCO2$80/tCO2$100/tCO2
• About 70% of the reduction potential can be captured under the $20/tCO2. The incremental volume of reduction potential gets smaller as the carbon
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
price increases. 4
Payback Period and IRR of Efficient Appliances
Replacement Payback Period(year)
IRR(%)From To
RefrigeratorLow‐Eff. Middle‐Eff. 4.4 22
Middle‐Eff. High‐Eff. 11.8 3
Small Low‐Eff. Small High‐Eff. 3.2 31Television
Small Low Eff. Small High Eff.
Large Low‐Eff. Large High‐Eff. 6.2 14
Lighting
Small Incandescent Small CFL 3.6 28
Mid‐Eff fluorescent High‐Eff fluorescent 4.1 24Lighting Mid Eff. fluorescent High Eff. fluorescent 4.1 24
Mid‐Eff. HID High‐Eff. HID 11.0 7
Air ConditionerLow‐Eff. Middle‐Eff. 4.1 23
Middle Eff High Eff 8 5 8Middle‐Eff. High‐Eff. 8.5 8
• Investing in energy‐saving technologies involves a trade‐off between higher initial capital costs and future energy cost savingsbetween higher initial capital costs and future energy cost savings.
• Average payback period is about 6 years (shorter than lifetime) and IRR i d 18% (hi h th i t t t )
5
average IRR is around 18% (higher than interest rates).
Energy Efficiency in Power Sector
• Wide gap exists in efficiency i
40
45Australia
Canada
France
Germany across countries.
30
35
cien
cy (%
LH
V) Germany
Japan
UK
US
EU27
25
30
Effic
Russia
Korea
China
India
201990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
World
0
60
% L
HV
)CoalOil d G
Efficiency of Coal‐fired Power PlantsEnergy Efficiency by generation type
30
40
50ge
nera
tion
(% Oil and GasAverage
10
20
ncy
of p
ower
• The technology is there, but efficiency gap exists…
6
0
US
Can
ada
UK
Fran
ce
Ger
man
y
Japa
n
Aus
tralia
Kor
ea
Chi
na
Indi
a
Rus
sia
Effi
cie n
Efficiency Gap
• Conceptually all opportunities for cost‐effective conservation h t d i th ffi i tare exhausted in the efficient economy.
• In reality, most of the opportunities to invest in energy efficiency are left behind…
• Why? There are a lot of reasons; transaction costs, capital y ; , pconstraints, lack of information about the available options, misplaced incentives, flaws in market structure, future uncertainties in energy prices, principal‐agent problems in energy usage and bounded rationality in decision making, such as the loss aversion bias
7
High Investment Hurdle for Low Income Household
80%
90%
100%Relationship between income level and implicit discount rates of goods
Rate
60%
70%
80%cit Discoun
t
40%
50%
Implic
10%
20%
30%Source: Train (1985), Hausman (1979),
0%
10%
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000
Beggs (1980), ADL (1984) .
Household Income
• Low‐income households (or developing countries) tend to have high discount rates due to the high risk premium in the financial
Household Income
high discount rates due to the high risk premium in the financial market, the high leverage of debt, and political instability.
8
Loss Aversion undervalues Efficiency Gain
value
Due to high initial capital requirements, seemingly expensive price of energy‐
loss gain
seemingly expensive price of energyefficient technologies relative to normal technologies can be a key barrier to investment.
• Behavioral economics research has identified a number of instances in which consumers’ choices are not consistent with strict utility maximization.
• Asymmetric responses to loss and gain. Potential losses are weighted more heavily than potential gains and the probability of loss is exaggerated.
9
Efficiency Improvement contributes to Mitigation
The New Policies Scenario takes account of both existing government policies and declared
• Efficiency gains and deployment of existing low‐carbon energy
Source: IEAgovernment policies and declared policy intentions.
y g p y g gyaccounts for most of the savings.
• The scale of this reduction underlines the importance of strongThe scale of this reduction underlines the importance of strong policy action to ensure that potential efficiency gains are realized
10
Regional Emission Reduction Potential
7000
8000
9000 n relative to
O2/yr]
$80/tCO2 ‐ $100/tCO2
$60/tCO2 ‐ $80/tCO2
$40/tCO2 ‐ $60/tCO2
[Relative to the TF scenario in 2020]
5000
6000
ission
Red
uctio
nn Scen
ario [M
tCO
$20/tCO2 ‐ $40/tCO2
$0/tCO2 ‐ $20/tCO2
< $0/tCO2
2000
3000
4000
‐related
CO2 Em
chno
logy
‐Frozen
0
1000
ative
mistic
ative
mistic
ative
mistic
ative
mistic
ative
mistic
ative
mistic
ative
mistic
ative
mistic
ative
mistic
ative
mistic
ative
mistic
Energy
‐Te
Conserva
Optim
Conserva
Optim
Conserva
Optim
Conserva
Optim
Conserva
Optim
Conserva
Optim
Conserva
Optim
Conserva
Optim
Conserva
Optim
Conserva
Optim
Conserva
Optim
US, Canada EU 27 CIS, other Europe
Japan Aus, NZ China India Other Asia Middle East South & Central
AfricaEurope Central
America
• Regional abatement potential differs across regions due to differences in current energy efficiency levels, industrial structures, potential of renewable
11
gy y , , penergy resources, and expected future economic growth.
Climate policy does not necessarily serve Energy Security
8 000
10,000
dex
ALPS A-Baseline (2050)
ALPS A-CP4.5 (2050)
Vulnerable
6,000
8,000gy
sec
urity
in ALPS A-CP3.0 (2050)
2 000
4,000Ene
rg
0
2,000
US W Europe Japan China SE Asia India and SUS W. Europe Japan China SE Asia India and S. Asia
igasii
gas
ioilii
oil SrTPESc
SrTPES
cESI 2,
2,
r : Political risk rating for country i, S : The percentage share of each supplier i in the international market
• Ambitious reduction targets do not necessarily increase energy security.
• Most of Asian countries get vulnerable as carbon constraints are tighten
r : Political risk rating for country i, S : The percentage share of each supplier i in the international market
• Most of Asian countries get vulnerable as carbon constraints are tighten due to replacement from domestic coal to imported gas
12
Efficiency Improvement helps Securing Energy SupplyOil Export Flows from Middle East and Major Strategic Maritime Channels
the Straits of Hormuz
th St it f M l
Source: IEA
the Strait of Malacca
• Asian countries heavily depend on Middle Eastern oil. Crude oil from the Persian Gulf to East Asian countries goes through some chokepoints.
• Increasing energy efficiency is critical to reducing oil dependence.
13
Policies to accelerate Energy Efficiency
uiva
lent
Carbon PriceCarbon Price
Preferences,Preferences,
or c
ost e
qu perceived riskperceived riskBoundedBoundedrationalityrationality
TransactionTransactiontt
Cos
t
FuelFuel
costscostsSearch costsSearch costs
FuelFuelFuelFuel
St d d Effi i t
CapitalCapital CapitalCapital
Standardtechnology
Efficienttechnology
• One solution would be pricing carbon, which makes investment on efficient technology attractive relatively.
14
gy y
• Another approach would be removing barriers to bring the actual circumstances closer to the ideal situation.
Need more Energy Efficiency Projects
2%Supply side EE
3%Supply side EECERs issue# of CDM Projects
8%3%
2%
17%
Demand side EE
HFCs, PFCs & N2O
5%6%Demand side EE
HFCs, PFCs & N2O17%
Renewables
CH4 & Cement &
18% Renewables
CH4 & Cement &
66%
Coal mine/bed Fuel switch
Afforestation&
68%Coal mine/bed Fuel switch
Afforestation&Afforestation & ReforestationTransport
Afforestation & ReforestationTransportSource: UNEP Database
• Current mechanism is not enough to support energy efficiency. More flexible scheme, such as bilateral trading, may accelerate efficiency improvement.
15
Conclusion
• There is huge potential for energy saving, especially in developing countries Improving energy efficiency brings about multiplecountries. Improving energy efficiency brings about multiple benefits, including CO2 emissions reductions and secure energy supply.pp y
• People in developing countries can have a much higher discount rate than those in developed countries. Institutional and behavioralrate than those in developed countries. Institutional and behavioral barriers also make it difficult to exploit full potential.
• A range of policy instruments not only carbon pricing but alsoA range of policy instruments, not only carbon pricing but also removal of fossil fuel subsidy, the energy labeling program, and recognition of co‐benefits of energy efficiency, would be needed to accelerate the diffusion of highly efficient technologies.
16