Keeping You Current - May 2009

8/14/2019 Keeping You Current - May 2009

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May 2009

Madeleine Romanello

Keeping You Current


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Many analysts believe that if the world

economy is going to rebound, the recoverywill begin with U.S. housing.

- Don Miller, Associate EditorMoney Morning

Source: Seeking Alpha 4/09/09


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Sales month over month

Category Percent

ageExistingSales

- 3Pending

Sales

2.1

NewConstruction

- 0.6


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On a month-over-month basis, the totaltransaction count increased 21%, its

largest increase during the month of

February since 2004.

Source: Radar Logic 4/23/09

RPX Monthly Housing Report


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Source: Seeking Alpha 4/08/09


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Don't Hunt for the BottomPinpointing a bottom in home prices is very

difficult, akin to picking the bottom

in the stock market. But dataand research indicate we're

getting close."

Wall Street Journal

Source: Wall Street Journal 4/18/09


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Interest Rates


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4/23/2009

Mortgage Rates 30 year fixed

Source: Federal Reserve

1/1/2009

Asset PurchaseAnnouncement

Asset PurchasesBegin


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Mortgaging


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Jumbo LoansJumbo Loans

Source: Market Watch 4/05/09

Bank of America recently began trumpeting jumbo programs,

offering 30-year fixed-rate jumbo mortgages with rates in the

high 5% range.

"To be honest, I'm not certain if [the low rates] will be around for

a while," Paola A. Kielblock, national product specialist forFairway Independent Mortgage said.


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Foreclosures


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Thousands of

mortgage loans that

were supposed to

reset at a higher ratethis spring won't be

changing, putting off

the grim threat of

foreclosure orbankruptcy for many

Americans by as

much as a year.

Source: Business Week 4/16/09


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A total of803,489

properties entered

some stage offoreclosure

during the first

quarter, and a

growing numberof these properties

are more expensive

homes.

Source: Realty Trac 4/09


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Source: OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report 4/3/09


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Source: OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report 4/3/09


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(A higher monthly payment)

increases the probability of a 90-day

delinquency by 7 to 11 percent,

depending on the borrower.

By contrast, a 1-percentage-point

increase in the unemployment rate

raises this probability by 10-20 percent,

while a 10-percentage-point fall in house

prices raises it

by more than half.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 4/13/09


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Jobless Rate

Source: Wall Street Journal 4/18/09


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Source: Global Insight 2008 4th Quarter Report 4/09


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Source: San Francisco Chronicle.com 4/08/09

Shadow Inventory?


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Pricing


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Source: Seeking Alpha, Tom Iacono 4/24/09
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-04-09-vacanthomes_N.htm


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Source: Seeking Alpha, Tom Iacono 4/24/09


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Source: Altos Research & Real IQ 4/08/09

List Prices

The 10-City Composite Index was up 1.1% duringMarch and is also up 1.1% for the first quarter since

prices were effectively flat in January and February.

This represents the first monthly and quarterly increase

in listing prices since inception of the Composite Indexin January 2008.


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U.S. House Prices

will Drop Another

12.5%Before Hitting Bottom

The Fitch

Report

Source: Fitch.com 4/23/09


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- Jeannine Cataldi, senior economist

and manager of IHS Global Insight's

Regional Real Estate Service

"We expect prices to decline further through

2009 as consumers remain wary of taking on

housing debt in these uncertain economicconditions.

Source: IHS Global Insight 1Q Report 4/20/09


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We believe there is another 16% to go

in pricing before we hit the bottom.

- Karen Weaver, Deutsche Bank


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Whitney is known both for her bearish calls, and

thus far, for being largely correct. Which makes

her predictions worth paying attention to.

Source: Housing Wire 4/07/09

Analyst Meredith Whitney, well-known for her work at

Oppenheimer & Co. and now at her own firm, told cable

television news outlet CNBC that

she expects home prices to fall another 30%.


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http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-04-09-vacanthomes_N.htm

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Keeping You Current - May 2009