Real Miami Beach Keeping Current 2007 06

www.realmiamibeach.com

Keeping You Current Helping our clients understand this crazy

market

June 2007


4/20074/2007


Somewhat confusing data?

April –

New home sales up 16%Existing home sales down 2.6%

Remember:New home sales are reported on signing of thecontract. Existing sales are reported at closing. Newhome sales are less than 15% of the total housingmarket and are not adjusted for cancellations.


House Prices Slide as Property Glut Grows;Buyers Gain Bargaining Power In Busy Spring SellingSeason

“Tighter credit and a growing glut of properties aredepressing an already weak U.S. housing market, wreckingthe industry's hopes for an early rebound.That leaves buyers in a strong position to negotiate forbargains during the spring home-shopping season, thebusiest time of the year for housing sales.”

4/25/20074/25/2007


A Closer Look Regionally

Here's what happened across the region with home sales:

Northeast: existing-home sales rose 1.2 percent to an annualpace of 1.13 million units in the first quarter from the same

period a year ago. The biggest gain in the region was in NewJersey, where sales rose 7.6 percent from the fourth quarter of

2006, followed by New York state, up 7.4 percent, andMassachusetts with a 3.9 percent increase.

The median Northeastern resale single-family home price was$268,900 in the first quarter, down 2.5 percent from the first quarter

of 2006.

5/15/20075/15/2007




Midwest: total existing-home sales fell 6.1 percent to a 1.49million-unit annual level in the first quarter compared with ayear earlier. The largest sales increase in the region was in

Iowa, where sales rose 8.2 percent from the fourth quarter of2006, followed by North Dakota, which rose 4.7 percent from a

year ago, and Indiana, up 2.9 percent.

The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest was$154,600, down 2.8 percent from the first quarter of 2006.

5/15/20075/15/2007




South: total existing-home sales were at an annual rate of 2.51million units in the first quarter, down 7.3 percent from the first

quarter of 2006. After the District of Columbia, the nextstrongest increase in the South was in Arkansas, up 8.8

percent from a year ago, followed by Kentucky, which rose 3.9percent, and Texas, up 2.7 percent.

The median existing single-family home price in the South was$177,800 in the first quarter, which is 0.6 percent below a year

earlier.

5/15/20075/15/2007




West: the existing-home sales pace of 1.28 million units fell11.9 percent from the first quarter of 2006. After Wyoming, thebest performance in the region was in Colorado where sales

rose 0.8 percent from a year earlier.The median existing single-family home price in the West was

$336,200 in the first quarter, down 1.8 percent from a year ago.

5/15/20075/15/2007


Foreclosure continues to be aserious concern for many U.S.home owners.

Indeed, according to a recent survey fromYahoo Real Estate and Harris Interactive,22 percent of home owners are at leastsomewhat concerned about thepossibility of foreclosure due to theirinability to meet monthly mortgagepayments.

4/23/20074/23/2007


More than 430,000 U.S. foreclosure filings werereported in the first three months of 2007.

RealtyTrac estimates that more than half of thefirst-quarter foreclosure activity was fromsubprime loans. However, it’s not just low-endhomes that are affected, said James J. Saccacio,CEO.

“We’re seeing a rising percentage offoreclosures with an estimated market valueof more than $750,000.”

4/23/20074/23/2007

Foreclosed


State

1. California

2. Florida

3. Texas

4. Michigan

5. Ohio

6. Georgia

7. Illinois

8. Colorado

9. New Jersey

10.

States with the most foreclosures

5/1/20075/1/2007

New York


The Center for Responsible Lending estimates that2.2 million American households have lost or will losetheir homes as monthly payments rise on high-riskmortgages in the next few years.

5/15/20075/15/2007


Housing Still a Drag on EconomyThrough 2007

A survey of 48 economists conducted bythe National Association for BusinessEconomics also concluded that housingmarket troubles will last through theend of the year.

5/21/20075/21/2007


Stocks vs. real estate A new study by Jack Clark Francis, a finance and

economics professor at Baruch College in New YorkCity, and Yale's Roger G. Ibbotson compared theannual returns of real estate from 1978 to 2004compared with those of stocks.The results?

4/20/20074/20/2007

Investment Return

Housing 8.6%

Commercial Property 9.5%

The S&P 13.4%



http://www.realtor.org/research.nsf/pages/presentations_use

5/20075/2007


5/15/20075/15/2007

The supply of houses andcondominiums available forsale continues to growquickly in much of the U.S.,reflecting weak sales. Thenumber of homes listed forsale at the end of April wasup seven percent fromMarch, according to datacompiled by ZipRealty Inc.


The increase was above the seasonal norm. Over the past 22years, home inventories nationwide have increased anaverage of 4.5 percent in April from March, according toCredit Suisse Group. Spring is the busiest time of year forhome shopping, as families with children try to get settledahead of the next school year.

5/15/20075/15/2007


Most Overpriced Markets

San DiegoMiami

Sacramento, Calif.San Francisco

Washington, D.C.Honolulu

New JerseyLos Angeles

BostonSan Jose, Calif.

5/1/20075/1/2007


5/8/20075/8/2007


4/25/20074/25/2007


May 2007May 2007

Falling...Nassau/Suffolk, New York

12-month forecast: - 6%Median home price: $483,000Five year price change: 76.3%Worst one-year decline: 6.6%Year of worst decline: '88-'89


Area Average SP % Depreciation

Fort Lauderdale $325,000 -5.5%

Phoenix $271,000 -5.5%

Nassau/Suffolk $483,000 -6.0%

Miami $335,000 -8.8%

Las Vegas $325,000 -8.8%

http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/09/real_estate/forecast.moneymag/index.htm


How do we differentiate ourselves?

“The agent who knows allthe numbers, and canexplain them, will be seenas the professional.”

I hope July will bring better

news ! Happy 4th , Madeleine