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Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale RothmanAlexandria, 20 March 2004
MedAction Module 1MedAction Module 1Land use change Land use change scenarios at various scenarios at various scalesscales
Scenarios2000-2030
Decision Support Systems
Policy Support Framework
Stake-holders
Main products of MedAction Main products of MedAction
The goal is to develop qualitative scenarios, or narrative storylines. Thus, we expand our mental model beyond conventional thinking and trend extrapolation, and include more surprising developments.
The relevant question that scenarios can answer is not whether an event could happen, but what we could do if it did happen.
What kind of scenarios?What kind of scenarios?
Workshops withLocal actors Target Area Scenarios
Multi-scale scenario developmentMulti-scale scenario development
3 European Scenarios(from VISIONS)
3 Mediterranean Scenarios
European ScenariosEuropean ScenariosFactor-Actor-Sector FrameworkFactor-Actor-Sector Framework
VISIONS MedAction
Factors Equity Water AvailabilityEmployment MigrationConsumption behaviour Land DegradationEnvironmental degradation Economic Stability
Actors NGOs NGOs
Scientists ScientistsBusinesses BusinessesGovernmental bodies Governmental bodies
Sectors Energy AgricultureWater TourismTransport ForestryInfrastructure Civic
DroughtDesert formation
Flooding
Convulsive Change
Knowledge is King
Information Technology dominates
Inventions
Big is Beautiful
+
+
Merger Mania
Three European scenariosThree European scenarios
Translation to Mediterranean region: Translation to Mediterranean region: Knowledge is KingKnowledge is King
Information Technology dominates
InventionsDesalination of sea waterLife extension drug
Sun-Beltand
Snow-birds
Transportfaster and cheaper
Tourist numbers increase
Target Area scenario developmentTarget Area scenario development
The ideal situation is to have three workshops in all Target Areas:
1. Preparatory workshopsIntroduction
2. First series of workshopsDevelopment narrative storylines 2030
3. Second series of workshopsBackcasting exercise and short term
action
Schedule of stakeholder workshopsSchedule of stakeholder workshops
Target Area Preparatory First Second workshop workshop workshop
Guadalentín 21-06-’02 08-11-’02 25-06-‘03Agri Valley 17-06-’02 21-10-’02 26-07-‘03Lesvos 11-05-’02 XX XXAlentejo XX 08-14-’02 XX
First stakeholder workshopsFirst stakeholder workshops
Maratea, Italy – October 21, 2002 (24)Murcia, Spain – November 8, 2002 (20)Mértola, Portugal – November 11, 2002 (16)
Main questions 1Main questions 1stst workshop workshop
What are the most important factors in your region?
The Story of the Present
How might your region look in 2030 under different European and world
developments?
The Story of the Future
The story of the presentThe story of the present
Writing post-itsWriting post-its
Discussing relationships between factorsDiscussing relationships between factors
Final productFinal product
Climate
Water
Land usechange
Population,Migration
Environmentaleducation
RegionalPolicies
Agrarian Policies
Desertification
The story of the futureThe story of the future
Creating the scenariosCreating the scenarios
The collagesThe collages
Presenting the scenariosPresenting the scenarios
Conclusions of evaluationConclusions of evaluation
Story of the present:No new factors of major importance Locally very different factors (oil in Italy!) and different emphasisPERCEPTION IS DIFFERENT Desertification is human desertification
Story of the future:• Too general• Too much following Mediterranean scenarios
Second stakeholder workshopsSecond stakeholder workshops
Totana, Spain – June 25, 2003 (20)Missanello, Italy – July 26, 2003 (24)
Main questions 2Main questions 2ndnd workshop workshop
What will be the main short-term trends in your region starting from the current situation?
Extension of the Present
How do the present and future connect?
Backcasting exercise
Extension of the presentExtension of the present
Trends in next 5 yearsTrends in next 5 years
Sectors:Agriculture smallholders disappearTourism increasingly important
Factors:Water less availabilityEnvironmental resources more degradationPopulation and migration rural outmigration
Backcasting exerciseBackcasting exercise
Backcasting exerciseBackcasting exercise
1. Pick one factor from “your” scenario
2. Decide whether you want to discuss • This factor (future of the scenario)• The opposite of this factor (desirable
future)
3. Develop a series of events and actions at short and medium term that should necessary happen in order to realise the (desired) situation of this factor in 2030
Shortterm
Mediumterm
Longterm
PresentExtension of the present
What?
When?
Who?
How?
NOGolf
courses
Continuation of intensive agriculture
New subsidies
Sufficient water
“Agriculture before anything”
Lowerprices
New canals
Stop rural outmigrtion
EU?
??
??
????
??
??
??
Sector Short term Medium term Long term
o Research in local knowledgeo Adult training processeso Innovative didacticso Active participation
o Improve local awarenesso Spread positive experienceso Information campaigns
o Marketing local productso Marketing image of the Agrio Collective quality markso Quality brand Val d’Agri
o Capillary street systemo Construct airport in areao Improve water system
o New subsidieso Low impact techniqueso Awareness campaignso Promotion local products
o Increase farm profitso Multifunctional agricultureo Incentives rural tourismo Increase life quality inner zones
Increase the awareness on the topic of rurality
Stimulate young people to invest in agriculture
Increase quality of local, biological products
Increase quality and quantity of
local infrastructure
Strengthening of market power
of the local farmer
Resolving institutional problems with establishment
and management
Multifunctional sustainable agriculture (BiB)
Multifunctional sustainable
agriculture managed by the local farmer
HUMAN CAPITAL
DEMOGRAPHY
AGRICULTURE
INFRASTRUCTURE
MARKETING
VAL D’AGRI NATIONAL PARK
SummarySummary
Present Short Medium Long term
2003 2008 2008-2030 2030
When? 1st 2nd 2nd 1st How? All Groups Groups Groups
Post-its Discussion Backcasting CollageResults Main factors Major trends Desirable futures ‘Real’ futures
ConclusionsConclusionsProcess• Vivid discussions and active participation• Enthusiasm and interest• Increased communication• Start of a long-term interaction and participation?
ResultsPerception of local stakeholders on:• Present situation• Current trends and short-term fears• Long-term hopes and desires• Long-term reactions to European changes
ConclusionsConclusions
Link to policies to combat desertification:
• Local stakeholders perceive desertification as human desertification and causes as socioeconmic• Their interest is not the land but the “territory”
• More integrated policies are needed• Future changes need to be considered (tourism!)