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Changing the energy capacity por/olio of the na2on
“No one has done what we are doing before. Ever. There is no blueprint to take delivery of and execute on.
We are crea2ng it as we act.”
“Nothing builds power like winning.”
Anecdotal Strategies for Effec2ve Movement Building
• What is the specific, discrete goal or desired outcome? – And how is success determined? Accountability? – Will it alone achieve the desired impact? Consequences of failure?
• Who are the decision makers that can deliver that outcome? – And what are the specific criteria and constraints of the decision making? – Timeline
• What is the process and context within which the decision will be made? – Who’s with you? Who’s against you? Elected? Appointed? Anointed? – Public opinion? (not anecdotal, but measurable snapshot), messengers
• What are your available resources? – Funding (promised, likely, in the bank) – Partners, staff
– Talent, skills, access, experience • Are you sure?
– Can you deliver your core strategy in one sentence?
• Now…What is the goal or desired outcome?
• Repeat. Not necessarily in order.
GPACE Holcomb Strategy
Defend the KDHE/Bremby decision and make the conversa2on public, comprehensive, and factual.
Beyond Coal Campaign Strategy
Internalize the real and full costs of coal combus2on, coal-‐plant-‐by-‐coal-‐plant.
Holcomb Origins
2001 – VP Dick Cheney chairs NEPDG behind closed doors – the coal rush was (re)born
– 3rd IPCC Assessment reported 2002 – Nascent Beyond Coal Campaign begins in
Great Lakes region
2004 – Sunflower has Sand Sage coal plant permit in-‐hand, w/extension
– Approx. 20 public comments – Sierra Club Beyond Coal targets every
single US coal plant
2006 – An Inconvenient Truth – Holcomb Project at 2100 MW
2007 – 4th IPCC Assessment reported – Mass. v. EPA – Bremby denies Holcomb at 1400 MW
• Approx. 750 public comments 2008 – Sebelius vetoes 2 coal plant bills
– Barak Obama elected POTUS, Lisa Jackson to EPA
2009 – Parkinson semlement agreement – ACES defeated – Electricity demand begins downward
movement – Natural gas prices move sharply
downward, shale reserves confirmed 2010 -‐ Cohesive federal climate policy abandoned
(Carol Browner leaves WH) – Bremby fired – KDHE permits Holcomb at 895 MW
• Approx. 6000 public comments – Tri-‐State G&T public IRP shows no demand
for Holcomb 2011 – Sierra Club files suit against KDHE permit
– Bloomberg gio, BCC goes from 15 states to 45, targets 1/3 of exis2ng coal
2012 – MATS, CSAPR, NSPS – BCC achieves 9.5% GHG emissions
reduc2ons, federal cap & trade = 5% – Federal court rules against RUS and
Sunflower – KS Supreme Court hears arguments re:
KDHE permit
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Electric Sector (2009)
Source: U.S. Energy Informa9on Administra9on; March 2012 Monthly Energy Review, Table 12.6
Petroleum 2%
Coal 81%
Natural Gas 17%
Biomass/Other 1%
Why coal? Strategic underpinning.
Source: U.S. EPA, “Reducing Toxic Pollu9on from Power Plants,” March 16, 2011, p. 6. Note: The figure includes emissions from oil-‐fired units as well as coal-‐fired, but oil-‐fired units account for only 1% of U.S. electric genera9on. Air emissions are not necessarily the major source of exposure for each of these pollutants.
Emissions from Fossil-‐Fueled Power Plants as a Percent of Total U.S. Air Emissions
Why coal?
"Coal pollutants affect all major body organ systems and contribute to four of the five leading causes of mortality in the US: heart disease, cancer, stroke, and chronic lower respiratory diseases."
-‐ Physicians for Social Responsibility
• More than 50% of Americans live within 30 miles of a coal plant
• Mercury poisoning impacts at least one in twelve U.S. women and places their children at risk
• $100 billion in health costs annually
• 13,000 premature deaths annually
Why coal?
0 50 75 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Levelized Cost ($/MWh)
RENEW
ABLE EN
ERGY
CONVEN
TIONAL
$109 -‐ 124
$120 -‐ 198
$58-‐109
Wind
Geothermal
Fuel Cell
Solar Thermal
Source: Lazard, June 2011
Coal loses as playing field leveled
Biomass Direct
Gas Peaking
IGCC
Coal
$136-‐192
$96-‐248
$196-‐258
$90-‐134
$76-‐115
Solar PV Crystalline RooRop
Energy Efficiency
Solar PV Crystalline Ground Mount
Solar PV Thin-‐Film
$80 $157
$89 -‐ 179 $73
$77-‐150
$73-‐135
$30-‐79
$0-‐50
Nuclear
Gas Combined Cycle
$63-‐161