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COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT
Translating Data and Trends into Actionable Insights
July 20, 2021
COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND VACCINATION TRENDS
Source: Cox Automotive
CONTINUING CLAIMS AT 3.2 MILLION NATIONALLY
Source: Department of Labor
ACTIVITY INCREASED LAST WEEK AND FULLY RECOVERED IN SEVERAL STATES
Source: Moody’s Analytics and CNN Business
CONSUMER SENTIMENT DECLINED LAST WEEKMorning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment on Monday was down 14.9% since February 29, 2020
Source: Morning Consult
113.3
81.23
89.53
101.08100.16 99.96
96.44
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1/1/20 2/1/20 3/1/20 4/1/20 5/1/20 6/1/20 7/1/20 8/1/20 9/1/20 10/1/20 11/1/20 12/1/20 1/1/21 2/1/21 3/1/21 4/1/21 5/1/21 6/1/21 7/1/21
ICS Value (7-Day Average)
SENTIMENT SHIFTS DOWN ACROSS MARKETS
Since February 29, 2020 Since July 12, 2021
Source: Morning Consult
RETAIL SALES ESTIMATES
Source: Cox Automotive
-60.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
2021 and 2020 % Change vs. 2019 in Retail Sales by Week
New Y/Y 20 Used Y/Y 20 New 21/19 Used 21/19
ZERO PERCENT FINANCING UP SO FAR IN JULY
Source: Cox Automotive
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Jan-
18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-19
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-20
May
-20
Jun
-20
Jul-
20
Au
g-20
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
No
v-2
0
Dec
-20
Jan-
21
Feb
-21
Mar
-21
Ap
r-21
May
-21
Jun
-21
Jul-
21
0% APR Finance Share
RETAIL INVENTORY NOT IMPROVING FOR NEW
Source: Cox Automotive
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
New Days’ Supply
2019 2020 2021
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
Used Days’ Supply
2019 2020 2021
WHOLESALE SEES DECLINE FROM SPRING PEAK
Source: Cox Automotive
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
Jan-
97
Jul-
97
Jan-
98
Jul-
98
Jan-
99
Jul-
99
Jan-
00
Jul-
00
Jan-
01
Jul-
01
Jan-
02
Jul-
02
Jan-
03
Jul-
03
Jan-
04
Jul-
04
Jan-
05
Jul-
05
Jan-
06
Jul-
06
Jan-
07
Jul-
07
Jan-
08
Jul-
08
Jan-
09
Jul-
09
Jan-
10
Jul-
10
Jan-
11
Jul-
11
Jan-
12
Jul-
12
Jan-
13
Jul-
13
Jan-
14
Jul-
14
Jan-
15
Jul-
15
Jan-
16
Jul-
16
Jan-
17
Jul-
17
Jan-
18
Jul-
18
Jan-
19
Jul-
19
Jan-
20
Jul-
20
Jan-
21
Jul-
21
Manheim Index - % Change M/M
WHOLESALE USED PRICES CONTINUE DECLINING
Source: Cox Automotive
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
130%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
MY 2018 Retail and Wholesale Price Index
2020 Retail Index 2021 Retail Index 2020 Wholesale Index 2021 Wholesale Index
SALES IMPACT VARIES BY DMA AS EVIDENCED BY UNIQUE CREDIT APPS
April 5, 2020 (vs same-week 2019) July 18, 2021 (vs same-week 2019)
Source: Cox Automotive
COX AUTOMOTIVE LEADING INDICATORS
• Leads in July through Sunday on Autotrader were down 12% y/y and on Kelley Blue Book were up 14%; compared to 2019, both were up. Leads on Autotrader are down so far in July from June, but Kelley Blue Book has seen growth.
• Dealertrack unique credit applications on same-store basis were down 11% y/y and down 18% against 2019 last week, and the weekly trend improved slightly
• Xtime saw a 1% increase y/y last week in consumers having their cars serviced; against 2019, appointments completed were down 10%, and the weekly trend improved
