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COX AUTOMOTIVE AUTO MARKET REPORT
Translating Data and Trends into Actionable Insights
August 3, 2021
COVID-19 DAILY CASE AND VACCINATION TRENDS
Source: Cox Automotive
CONTINUING CLAIMS AT 3.3 MILLION NATIONALLY
Source: Department of Labor
ACTIVITY DECREASED LAST WEEK BUT FULLY RECOVERED IN SEVERAL STATES
Source: Moody’s Analytics and CNN Business
CONSUMER SENTIMENT DECLINED LAST WEEKMorning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment on Monday was down 17.3% since February 29, 2020
Source: Morning Consult
113.3
81.23
89.53
101.08100.16 99.96
94.12
93.72
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1/1/20 2/1/20 3/1/20 4/1/20 5/1/20 6/1/20 7/1/20 8/1/20 9/1/20 10/1/20 11/1/20 12/1/20 1/1/21 2/1/21 3/1/21 4/1/21 5/1/21 6/1/21 7/1/21 8/1/21
ICS Value (7-Day Average)
SENTIMENT SHIFTS ACROSS MARKETS
Since February 29, 2020 Since July 26, 2021
Source: Morning Consult
RETAIL SALES ESTIMATES
Source: Cox Automotive
-60.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
2021 and 2020 % Change vs. 2019 in Retail Sales by Week
New Y/Y 20 Used Y/Y 20 New 21/19 Used 21/19
ZERO PERCENT FINANCING DOWN TO END JULY
Source: Cox Automotive
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-19
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Jul-
20
Au
g-2
0
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
No
v-20
Dec
-20
Jan
-21
Feb
-21
Mar
-21
Ap
r-2
1
May
-21
Jun
-21
Jul-
21
0% APR Finance Share
RETAIL INVENTORY IMPROVING FOR USED
Source: Cox Automotive
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
New Days’ Supply
2019 2020 2021
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
Used Days’ Supply
2019 2020 2021
RETAIL USED PRICES NOW DECLINING
Source: Cox Automotive
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
130%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
MY 2018 Retail and Wholesale Price Index
2020 Retail Index 2021 Retail Index 2020 Wholesale Index 2021 Wholesale Index
SALES IMPACT VARIES BY DMA AS EVIDENCED BY UNIQUE CREDIT APPS
April 5, 2020 (vs same-week 2019) August 1, 2021 (vs same-week 2019)
Source: Cox Automotive
COX AUTOMOTIVE LEADING INDICATORS
• Leads in July on Autotrader were down 15% y/y and on Kelley Blue Book were up 17%; compared to 2019, both were up. Leads declined in July from June on Autotrader but increased on Kelley Blue Book.
• Dealertrack unique credit applications on same-store basis were down 13% y/y and down 22% against 2019 last week, and the weekly trend improved slightly
• Xtime saw completed service appointments unchanged y/y last week; against 2019, appointments completed were down 11%, and the weekly trend declined slightly