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JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting 13 May 2015

JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc Annual …€¦ · JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting 13 May 2015 . 1 ... net of the appropriate withholding tax,

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Page 1: JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc Annual …€¦ · JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting 13 May 2015 . 1 ... net of the appropriate withholding tax,

JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting 13 May 2015

Page 2: JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc Annual …€¦ · JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting 13 May 2015 . 1 ... net of the appropriate withholding tax,

1

Agenda

Performance Review

Current Economic and Market Data

Current Asset Allocation and Fund Structure

Page 3: JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc Annual …€¦ · JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting 13 May 2015 . 1 ... net of the appropriate withholding tax,

2

2014 Results

1 Source: J.P. Morgan and based on cum income debt at par. 2 Source: Morningstar. 3 Source: Morningstar. The Company’s benchmark index is the S&P 500 Index, net of the appropriate withholding tax, expressed in sterling total return terms. 4The October 2013 and May 2014 dividend amounts have been restated due to the sub-division of each existing ordinary share of 25p into five ordinary shares of 5p each on 8th May 2014.

NAV return1 20.8%

Ordinary share price2 22.6%

S&P 500 Composite Index (£) 20.4%

NAV relative return 0.4%

Interim Dividend (Net) payment (October 2013)4 1.0p

Dividend (Net) Payment (May 2014) 4 1.7p

Interim Dividend (Net) Payment (October 2014) 1.0p = 20.4% increase

on 2013 Final Dividend (Net) Proposed Payment (May 2015) 2.25p

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3

Performance Attribution – Contributions to Total Returns JPM American Investment Trust plc

Source: Wilshire, JPMAM and MorningStar. All figures are on a total return basis. Performance attribution analyses how the Company achieved its recorded performance relative to its benchmark index.

Contributions To Total Returns Year ended 31st December 2014

Net Asset Value Total Return (In sterling terms) 20.8%

Benchmark Total Return (In sterling terms) 20.4%

Excess Return 0.4%

Contributions To Total Returns

Large Cap Portfolio 1.1%

Allocation Effect -0.8%

Selection Effect 1.9%

Small Cap Portfolio -0.5%

Allocation Effect -0.5%

Cash -0.2%

Gearing 1.5%

Cost Of Debt -0.5%

Currency Hedge -0.5%

Share Issuance 0.2%

Management Fee/Expenses -0.6%

Performance Fee -0.1%

Total 0.4%

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4

Sector attribution (relative to S&P 500)

JPMorgan American Investment Trust: 2014 performance attribution (USD)

1 Attribution breakdown equates to the gross performance of the portfolio. *Indicates stock was not held as of 31 December 2014. Source: Wilshire. The portfolio is an actively managed portfolio; holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice. The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. J.P. Morgan Asset Management may or may not positions on behalf of its clients in any or all of the aforementioned securities.

Stock attribution (relative to S&P 500)

2.2%

0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%

-0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% Information Technology

Consumer Staples

Industrials Telecom Services

Materials Energy Utilities Consumer Discretionary

Health Care Financials

Positive contributors

Ending Weight Difference Return Impact

Apple 2.40% 40.60% 0.53%

Southwest Airlines 0.62% 126.30% 0.39%

Yahoo 1.06% 44.56% 0.37%

Hewlett Packard 1.25% 46.03% 0.34%

Amazon* -0.65% -22.18% 0.33%

Negative contributors

Ending Weight Difference Return Impact

Peabody Energy* 0.00% -54.04% -0.44%

Terex* 0.00% -23.55% -0.29%

Devon Energy 1.09% 0.37% -0.28%

General Motors* -0.26% -16.46% -0.28%

Intel* -0.96% 44.27% -0.24%

Attribution Summary1 Stock: +1.85% Sector: -0.75%

For the twelve month period ending 31 December 2014 Excludes Cash & Gearing (USD)

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Four Months to April 2015 Results

NAV return1 +2.4%

Ordinary share price2 -4.1%

S&P 500 Composite Index (£)3 3.3%

NAV relative return -0.9%

1 Source: J.P. Morgan and based on cum income with debt at par. 2 Source: Morningstar. 3 Source: Morningstar. The Company’s benchmark index is the S&P 500 Index, net of the appropriate withholding tax, expressed in sterling total return terms.

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Performance in USD

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Morningstar, Bloomberg. Performance figures of those of the JPM American Investment Trust using month end CAPITAL NAV’s released to the market on 30 April 2015. The figures are on a total return basis in USD. 1 Competitive universe includes all Europe Open ended, US Large Cap Blend Category funds, in the Morningstar Global database.(only the oldest share class of each fund was included)

As of 30 April 2015

NAV Performance (USD) Dec - April 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years

JPMAIT – Net of Fees 1.23% 12.29% 16.10% 12.67% 8.47%

Competitive ranking percentile 1 - 27 16 23 3

Number of Funds 1 - 417 387 351 255

Page 8: JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc Annual …€¦ · JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting 13 May 2015 . 1 ... net of the appropriate withholding tax,

7

Agenda

Performance Review

Current Economic and Market Data

Current Asset Allocation and Fund Structure

Page 9: JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc Annual …€¦ · JPMorgan American Investment Trust plc Annual General Meeting 13 May 2015 . 1 ... net of the appropriate withholding tax,

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-$1

$1

$3

$5

$7

$9

$11

$13

$15

$17

$19

'65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Real GDPYear-over-year % chg

4Q14YoY % chg: 2.4%

Components of GDP4Q14 nominal GDP, trillions USD

13.4% Investment Ex-housing

68.5% Consumption

18.0% Gov’t Spending

3.3% Housing

- 3.1% Net Exports

Average: 3.0%

QoQ % chg: 2.2%

Real GDP

Expansion Average:

2.3%

Economic Growth and the Composition of GDP

Source: BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Quarter over quarter percent changes are at an annualized rate. Average represents the annualized growth rate for the full period. Expansion average refers to the period starting in the second quarter of 2009. Guide to the Markets – U.S.Data are as of 31 March 2015

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% of GDP

We think we have a few years left in an up cycle

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management and US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data as of 31 December 2014.

Durable goods and fixed investment as % of GDP

12/14 24.1% LT average: 25.7%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 01 06 11

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Sector performance in 2015 could depend in part on interest rates

Source: Standard & Poor’s, U.S. Treasury, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Returns are based on price index only and do not include dividends. Markers represent monthly 2-year correlations only. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of 31 March 2015

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Correlations Between Weekly Stock Returns and Interest Rate Movements Weekly S&P 500 returns, 10-year Treasury yield, rolling 2-year correlation, May 1963 – Mar. 2015

Positive relationship between yield movements and stock returns

Negative relationship between yield movements and stock returns

When yields are below 5%, rising rates are generally associated with rising stock prices

10-Year Treasury Yield

Co

rre

lati

on

Co

eff

icie

nt

Sector correlations to rates 2-year rolling, 1994-2013

Max Average

Current Min

-1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00

Utilities

Telecom

Cons. Staples

Materials

Technology

Health Care

Energy

Cons. Disc.

S&P 500

Industrials

Financials

More positively correlated with rising interest rates

Less positively correlated with rising interest rates

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26

-10

1517

1

26

15

2

12

27

-7

26

47

-2

34

20

3127

20

-10-13

-23

26

9

3

14

4

-38

23

13

0

13

30

11

.4

-17 -18 -17

-7

-13

-8 -9

-34

-8 -8

-20

-6 -6 -5-9

-3

-8-11

-19

-12

-17

-30-34

-14

-8 -7 -8-10

-49

-28

-16-19

-10-6 -7

-4

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

%

10%

20%

30%

40%

'80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15

S&P 500 Intra-year Declines vs. Calendar Year ReturnsDespite average intra-year drops of 14.2%, annual returns positive in 27 of 35 years*

YTD

Annual Returns and Intra-year Declines

Source: Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Returns are based on price index only and do not include dividends. Intra-year drops refers to the largest market drops from a peak to a trough during the year. For illustrative purposes only. *Returns shown are calendar year returns from 1980 to 2014 excluding 2015 which is year to date. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of 31 March 2015

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S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '148x

10x

12x

14x

16x

18x

20x

22x

24x

26x

'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '142%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%S&P 500 Earnings Yield vs. Baa Bond Yield

S&P 500 Earnings Yield (Inverse of fwd. P/E): 5.9%

Moody’s Baa Yield: 4.5%

S&P 500 Index: Forward P/E Ratio

Average: 15.7x

Current: 16.9x

+1 Std. Dev.: 19.0x

-1 Std. Dev.: 12.4x

U.S. Equity: Valuation Measures Historical AveragesValuation Measure Description Latest

1-year ago

5-year avg.

10-year avg.

25-year avg.*

P/E Price to Earnings 16.9x 15.5x 13.6x 13.8x 15.7xCAPE Shiller's P/E 27.8 25.9 22.7 22.9 25.4Div. Yield Dividend Yield 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1%REY Real Earnings Yield 3.9% 4.2% 5.0% 4.5% 2.9%P/B Price to Book 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.9P/CF Price to Cash Flow 11.8 11.1 9.4 9.7 11.3EY Spread EY Minus Baa Yield 1.4% 1.7% 2.2% 1.3% -0.6%

Source: Standard & Poor’s, FactSet Robert Shiller, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Price to Earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next 12 months. Shiller’s P/E uses trailing 10 years of inflation adjusted earnings as reported by companies. Dividend Yield is calculated as the trailing 12-month average dividend divided by price. Real Earnings Yield is defined as (trailing four quarters of reported earnings/price) - year over year core CPI inflation. Price to Book Ratio is the price divided by book value per share. Price to Cash Flow is price divided by NTM cash flow. EY Minus Baa Yield is the forward earnings yield (consensus analyst estimates of EPS over the next 12 months divided by price minus the Moody’s Baa seasoned corporate bond yield. *P/CF is a 20 - year avg. due to cash flow data availability. Data are as at 31 March 2015

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4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

'86 '91 '96 '01 '06 '11

-$1

$3

$7

$11

$15

$19

$23

$27

$31

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '1480%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

220%

S&P 500 Earnings Per ShareIndex quarterly operating earnings

Profit Margins

4Q14*: $26.77

2Q07: $24.06

Total LeverageS&P 500, ratio of total debt to total equity, quarterly

1Q15: 103%

Average: 161%

S&P 500 Operating EPS % of Sales per Share**

4Q14:8.7%

After-Tax, Adj. Corp. Profits, % of GDP

4Q14*:9.0%

Corporate Profits and Leverage

Source: BEA, Standard & Poor’s, Compustat, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. EPS levels are based on operating earnings per share. *Most recently available data is 4Q14, which is a Standard & Poor’s estimate. **S&P 500 Operating EPS % of Sales per Share fell to 0% in 4Q2008 and is adjusted on the chart. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 31 March 2015

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Energy: Supply, Demand and Prices

Source: EIA, Factset, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Forecasts are from EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and start in 2015. ** Forecasts are from EIA Annual Energy Outlook and start in 2014. *** Production numbers as of 2015. **** Other includes conventional on and offshore natural gas drilling, tight gas, and coalbed methane. Natural gas prices are $/mmbtu and are of February 2015. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of 31 March 2015

'86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

'95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '250

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Change in Production and Consumption of OilProduction, consumption and inventories, million barrels per day

Price of OilBrent crude, nominal prices, USD/barrel

Mar. 2015: $58.17

Gbl. Natural Gas PricesJapan $13.37Germany $9.29U.S. $2.74

U.S. Natural Gas Production***Trillions of cubic feet, USD

Other****

Shale Gas

EIA Forecast**

2013 2014 2015*Production

U.S. 12.4 14.0 14.9 20.8%

OPEC 36.5 36.5 36.5 -0.1%

Other 42.0 42.6 42.7 1.5%

Global 90.9 93.0 94.1 3.5%

Consumption

U.S. 19.0 19.0 19.3 2.0%

Europe 14.3 14.2 14.1 -1.6%

Japan 4.5 4.3 4.2 -7.5%

China 10.3 10.7 11.0 6.8%

Other 43.2 44.0 44.5 3.2%

Global 91.2 92.2 93.1 2.1%

Inventory Change -0.3 0.9 1.0

Growth since 2013

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Return and Valuation Dispersion

Source: Standard & Poor’s, CBOE, Factset, , J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *EPS growth projections are Standard and Poor’s estimates for full year 2015 Data are as of 31 March 2015

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

Dec '13 Feb '14 Apr '14 Jun '14 Aug '14 Oct '14 Dec '14 Feb '15

4.2

1.20.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Ener

gy

Util

ities

Con

s. S

tapl

es

Fina

ncia

ls

Mat

eria

ls

S&P

500

Con

s. D

isc.

Hea

lth C

are

Indu

stria

ls

Info

Tec

h

Tele

com

Sector DispersionStandard deviation across annual S&P 500 sector returns

S&P 500 Sector Projected 2015 Annual EPS Growth*S&P 500 Sector P/Es Relative to History15 year NTMA P/E, standard deviations above/below average

Expe

nsive

rel

ative

to hi

story

Inexp

ensiv

erel

ative

to hi

story

Dispersion (LHS) VIX (RHS)

53.5%

28.4%15.9% 13.3% 9.5% 8.2% 4.9% 3.5% 3.1% 3.0%

-55.7%-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Tele

com

Hea

lth C

are

Info

Tec

h

Indu

stria

ls

Con

s. D

isc.

Mat

eria

ls

S&P

500

Util

ities

Con

s. S

tapl

es

Fina

ncia

ls

Ener

gy

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Consumer Finances

Source: (Left) FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data include households and nonprofit organizations. (Right) BEA, FRB, FactSet , J.P . Morgan Asset Management. SA - seasonally adjusted. *Revolving includes credit cards. **1Q15 household debt service ratio and 1Q15 household net worth are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Data are as of 31 March 2015

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '149%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

Household Debt Service RatioDebt payments as % of disposable personal income, sa

1Q80: 10.6% 1Q15**:

9.9%

4Q07:13.2%

'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

Household Net WorthBillions USD, not seasonally adjusted

1Q15**:$83,8992Q07:

$67,866

Consumer Balance Sheet4Q14, Trillions of dollars outstanding, not seasonally adjusted

Total Assets: $97.1tn

Total Liabilities: $14.2tn

Homes: 24%

Deposits: 9%

Pension Funds: 21%

Other Financial Assets: 39%

Other Tangible: 6%

Mortgages: 68%

Other Non-revolving: 1%Revolving*: 6%

Auto Loans: 7%Other Liabilities: 9%

Student Debt: 9%

3Q-‘07 Peak: $82.1tn1Q-‘09 Low: $67.1tn

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70% S&P/Topix Index (Japan) S&P UK Index

S&P 350 (Europe) S&P 500 (US)

The S&P 500 is a well-diversified benchmark

Source: (Both), J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 31 March 2015 * GICS Sectors

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

S&P 500 S&P UK S&P 350 (Europe)

S&P/TOPIX (Japan)

S&P Asia 50

Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommuncation Services Utilities

Regional Index Sector Composition*

Market Cap Concentration By Regional Index, Top 10 Names As A % Of Total Market Cap

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Agenda

Performance Review

Current Economic and Market Data

Current Asset Allocation and Fund Structure Asset Allocation

Sector Weights

Stock Weights

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Asset Allocation

31-Mar 15 31-Dec 14 30-Sep 14 30-Jun-14 31-Mar-14 31-Dec-13 30-Sep-13 30-Jun-13

Large Cap Portfolio 94.0% 95.4% 95.7% 94.7% 96.3% 95.6% 90.6% 90.2%

Small Cap Growth Portfolio 4.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.6% 2.8% 3.2% 6.0% 5.8%

Liquidity 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.5% 0.6% 0.7% 2.8% 4.0%

Unrealized Hedge Value -0.1% -0.2% -0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% -0.1%

Total* 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Actual Gearing 109% 109% 109% 109% 109% 109% 105% 105%

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management as at 31 March 2015. The Fund is an actively managed portfolio; holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice. *Figures may not add up to 100% due to the removal of the allocation to the US Small & Micro Cap and unquoted portions of the Investment Trust from prior periods.

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Source: (Both), J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Company Data

Financial Metrics: Illinois Tool Works

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Source: (Both), J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Company Data

Financial Metrics: Apple

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JPM American Investment Trust: Sector allocation

24.8%

15.3% 14.9%

12.2% 11.4%

9.0% 8.3%

2.3% 1.1% 0.8%

4.8%

0.7%

-1.3%

2.7%

-1.1% -1.2% -0.2% -0.1%

-1.9% -2.4%

Information Technology

Health Care Financials Consumer Staples

Consumer Discretionary

Industrials Energy Telecom Services

Utilities Materials

Absolute

Relative

As of 30 April 2015

For illustrative purposes only. 1Relative to the S&P 500 Index. Source: Wilshire (excludes cash).

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JPM American Investment Trust: Stock allocation

For illustrative purposes only. 1Relative to the S&P 500 Index. 2The portfolio is unable to hold JPMorgan Chase for regulatory reasons. *Indicates a stock not held as of 30 April 2015. Source: Wilshire (excludes cash).

Top 10 Holdings (%)

Apple 6.8

Microsoft 4.5

Wells Fargo 2.3

Gilead Sciences 2.2

Bank Of America 2.2

Pfizer 2.1

Time Warner 2.0

Citigroup 1.9

Northrop 1.9

Cisco 1.8

As of 30 April 2015

Top 5 Overweights1 (%)

Apple 2.9

Microsoft 2.3

Northrop 1.7

Time Warner 1.6

CenturyLink 1.5

Top 5 Underweights1 (%)

Johnson & Johnson* -1.5

General Electric* -1.5

Berkshire Hathaway* -1.4

JPMorgan Chase & Co2 -1.3

Procter & Gamble* -1.2

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Conclusions

Valuations are high but not alarming

The US continues its modest growth trajectory

Corporate America continues to prudently manage its capital

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Any forecasts or opinions expressed are J.P. Morgan’s own at the date of this document and may be subject to change. The value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate and your investment is not guaranteed and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Exchange rates may cause the value of underlying overseas investments to go down or up. Investments in smaller companies may involve a higher degree of risk as they are usually more sensitive to market movements. Investments in emerging markets may be more volatile than other markets and the risk to your capital is therefore greater. Also, the economic and political situations may be more volatile than in established economies and these may adversely influence the value of investments made. Telephone lines are recorded and may be monitored for security and training purposes