•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

4

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20

Source: Factset, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, National Statistics Agencies, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.*The series aggregates monthly capital goods imports growth data of 29 developed and emerging markets, weighted by their nominal Gross Domestic Product.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

Capital goods imports and investment goods outputIndex, 7-month lead Year-over-year change, 3MMA

Global manufacturing PMI - New orders sub-indexIndex

Investment goods

Consumer goods

Global Mfg. PMI – Investment Goods Output sub-index

Global (ex-China) capital goods imports growth* 44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

5

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

U.S. China EU Japan Mexico

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Brazil India China Russia Japan UK EU U.S. Canada Mexico

Effective weighted average tariff rate**

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left and top right) Peterson Institute for International Economics, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. International Trade Commission, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), World Bank; (Bottom right) WTO. *Imported value of products from trading partner appearing on either the USTR or China Ministry of Commerce lists as a percent of total imports from that trading partner over the same period. **Value of imports-weighted average tariff for 2017, plus additional tariffs from trade actions in 2018 or 2019 related to U.S. trade disputes calculated as the additional tariffs collected as a result of each new action as a percent of total imports for that year. ***Barriers can take the form of health and safety regulations—sanitary production requirements or health and invasive species restrictions; technical barriers—minimum standards or certifications for products sold in a certain country; anti-dumping duties—taxes on imports to prevent other countries offloading excess supply at artificially cheap prices; Countervailing duties—taxes on imports to offset subsidies received elsewhere.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

U.S. and China: Proposals and actions*% of annual imports from other covered by tariffs

Non-tariff barriers to trade***Number of measures in effect, 2017

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jan '18 Apr '18 Jul '18 Oct '18 Jan '19 Apr '19

Tariffs by

U.S. on

imports from

China

Tariffs by

China on

imports from

U.S.

Proposed

ProposedIn effect

In effect

2017

Retaliation for new U.S. tariffs

U.S. steel & aluminum tariffs

U.S. tariffs on China in place

U.S. threatened tariffs on China

Health and safety regulations

Technical barriers

Anti-dumping duties

Countervailing duties

6

Source. J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Top left and right) Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, U.S. International Trade Commission; (Bottom left) American Chamber of Commerce in China & in Shanghai; (Right) United Nations.*Survey allows selection of multiple locations and thus, does not sum to 100. **Indian subcontinent grouped together in survey responses. ***Analysis classifies eachindividual product the U.S. imports from China to the HTS-8 level that either appears on the 2018 & 2019 tariff lists published in the U.S. Federal Register or has been threatened with higher tariffs into its appropriate System of National Accounts group and aggregates these categories by value of imports in 2017—the last year without increased tariffs for which data was available. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

Tariffed goods distribution across economic categories***USD billion

U.S. importsU.S. goods imports, June 2018 = 100

Plans to relocate productionOf companies currently operating in China, % considering relocating to*

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

In effect Proposed

65

80

95

110

125

140

Jun '18 Sep '18 Dec '18 Mar '19

World ex-ChinaChina

25% tariffs on

USD 34B

25% tariffs

on USD 16B 10% tariffs on

USD 200B

Threatened increase

from 10% to 25% on

USD 200B

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Notplanningto move

SoutheastAsia

Mexico India** U.S. East Asia Europe Other

Capital goods

Consumption goods

Intermediate goods

7

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

'06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20

Source: Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bloomberg Finance L.P., European Central Bank, U.S. Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.*New purchases of bonds are based on period to period changes in average holdings during the quarter across various asset purchase programs as reported by eachrespective G4 central bank (the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve), announced purchase plans of these central banks and J.P. Morgan Asset Management projections, converted to common currency by average quarterly exchange rates.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

Central bank bond purchases Quarterly net bond purchases by G4 central banks*, USD billions

Projections

U.S.

Eurozone

Japan

Net

UK

8

1.75%

1.35% 1.40%

2.40%

2.10%

2.40%2.50%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

'05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Market expectations are the federal funds rates priced into the Fed Fund futures market as of 30/06/19. Federal Reserve projections shown are median estimates of FOMC participants.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

Federal funds rate expectationsFOMC and market expectations for the fed funds rate

Long

run

Federal funds rate

FOMC long-run projection

FOMC year-end estimates

Market expectations on 30/06/19

FOMC June 2019 forecasts

Percent

2019 2020 2021Long

run

Change in real GDP, 4Q to 4Q 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9

Unemployment rate, 4Q 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.2

PCE inflation, 4Q to 4Q 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.0

9

Source: FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Returns are total returns based on MSCI indices, except the U.S., which is the S&P 500 and China A, which are based on the CSI 300 index in U.S. dollar terms. China return is based on the MSCI China index. 10-yr total (gross) return data is used to calculate annualized returns (Ann. Ret.) and annualized volatility (Ann. Vol.) and reflect the period 30/06/09 – 30/06/19. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2Q '19 YTD '19 Ann. Ret. Ann. Vol.

India ASEAN U.S . India U.S . China A Ja pa n Ta iwa n China U.S . U.S . China A U.S . China A

10 2 .8 % 3 2 .4 % 2 .1% 2 6 .0 % 3 2 .4 % 5 2 .1% 9 .9 % 19 .6 % 5 4 .3 % - 4 .4 % 14 .2 % 2 8 .4 % 14 .7 % 2 6 .8 %

China A Kore a ASEAN China Ja pa n India China A U.S . Kore a India India U.S . Ta iwa n India

9 8 .5 % 2 7 .2 % - 6 .1% 2 3 .1% 2 7 .3 % 2 3 .9 % 2 .4 % 12 .0 % 4 7 .8 % - 7 .3 % 7 .3 % 18 .5 % 9 .9 % 2 4 .5 %

Ta iwa n Ta iwa n Europe ASEAN Europe U.S . U.S . Kore a India Ta iwa n Europe Europe ASEAN China

8 0 .2 % 2 2 .7 % - 10 .5 % 2 2 .8 % 2 6 .0 % 13 .7 % 1.4 % 9 .2 % 3 8 .8 % - 8 .2 % 1.7 % 16 .5 % 8 .7 % 2 1.2 %

ASEAN India Kore aAPAC

e x- JPTa iwa n Ta iwa n Europe

APAC

e x- JP

APAC

e x- JPASEAN ASEAN China

APAC

e x- JPKore a

7 5 .0 % 2 0 .9 % - 11.8 % 2 2 .6 % 9 .8 % 10 .1% - 2 .3 % 7 .1% 3 7 .3 % - 8 .4 % 0 .0 % 13 .1% 8 .3 % 2 0 .9 %

APAC

e x- JP

APAC

e x- JPJa pa n Kore a Kore a China India ASEAN China A Ja pa n

APAC

e x- JP

APAC

e x- JPKore a Ta iwa n

7 3 .7 % 18 .4 % - 14 .2 % 2 1.5 % 4 .2 % 8 .3 % - 6 .1% 6 .2 % 3 2 .6 % - 12 .6 % - 2 .3 % 12 .4 % 8 .1% 17 .9 %

Kore a Ja pa nAPAC

e x- JPEurope China ASEAN Kore a Ja pa n ASEAN

APAC

e x- JPTa iwa n ASEAN Europe

APAC

e x- JP

7 2 .1% 15 .6 % - 15 .4 % 19 .9 % 4 .0 % 6 .4 % - 6 .3 % 2 .7 % 3 0 .1% - 13 .7 % - 3 .5 % 10 .9 % 7 .6 % 17 .3 %

China U.S . China Ta iwa nAPAC

e x- JP

APAC

e x- JPChina China Ta iwa n Europe Ja pa n Ta iwa n India Europe

6 2 .6 % 15 .1% - 18 .2 % 17 .7 % 3 .7 % 3 .1% - 7 .6 % 1.1% 2 8 .5 % - 14 .3 % - 5 .9 % 10 .2 % 6 .5 % 17 .0 %

Europe China Ta iwa n U.S . China A Ja pa nAPAC

e x- JPEurope Europe China China A Ja pa n China ASEAN

3 6 .8 % 4 .8 % - 2 0 .2 % 16 .0 % - 2 .6 % - 3 .7 % - 9 .1% 0 .2 % 2 6 .2 % - 18 .7 % - 7 .1% 8 .0 % 6 .4 % 16 .3 %

U.S . Europe China A China A India Europe Ta iwa n India Ja pa n Kore a China India Ja pa n Ja pa n

2 6 .5 % 4 .5 % - 2 0 .5 % 10 .9 % - 3 .8 % - 5 .7 % - 11.0 % - 1.4 % 2 4 .4 % - 2 0 .5 % - 9 .8 % 7 .7 % 6 .1% 13 .2 %

Ja pa n China A India Ja pa n ASEAN Kore a ASEAN China A U.S . China A Kore a Kore a China A U.S .

6 .4 % - 8 .4 % - 3 7 .2 % 8 .4 % - 4 .5 % - 10 .7 % - 18 .4 % - 15 .2 % 2 1.8 % - 2 7 .6 % - 16 .8 % 4 .1% 3 .8 % 12 .7 %

10-yrs ('09 - '19)

10

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

Earnings growthEarnings per share, year-over-year change, consensus estimates

Source: IBES, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, Thomson Reuters Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Asia Pacific ex-Japan, EM, Europe and U.S. equity indices used are the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan, MSCI Emerging Markets, MSCI Europe and S&P 500, respectively. Consensus estimates used are calendar year estimates from IBES. Revisions are based on the current unreported year. Net earnings revisions is (number of companies with upward earnings revisions – number of companies with downwards earnings revisions) / number of total companies. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

Earnings revisions ratiosNet earnings revisions to consensus estimates, 13-week moving average

2018

2017

2019

U.S.

Europe

Asia Pacific

ex-Japan

Japan

12%

24% 24%

16%

24%

7%

4%

6%

3%

5% 5%4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

U.S. EM Asia Pacific ex-Japan Europe

11

EM equity relative performance and commoditiesRelative index level, Dec. 1997 = 100 Index level

Source: FactSet, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) J.P. Morgan Economic Research; (Top right) Bloomberg Finance L.P.*REER is the real effective exchange rate. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

EM vs. DM growth and equity performance%, next 12 months’ growth estimates Index level

Relative EM / DM equity performance and USD REERRelative index level, Dec. 1997 = 100 Index level

EM growth & equity

outperformance

EM growth & equity

underperformance

EM minus DM GDP growth

MSCI EM / MSCI DM

MSCI EM / MSCI DM

Bloomberg Commodity Index

USD REER (inverted)*

MSCI EM / MSCI DM

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

'95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17

12

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

'01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19

Source: MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) IBES; (Right) CEIC, national statistics agencies. Consensus estimates used are calendar year estimates from IBES. Earnings per share (EPS) used is next 12 months’ aggregate estimate. *EM Asia ex-China includes Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Overall exports aggregate is gross domestic product (GDP)-weighted. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan earnings by sectorEarnings growth, consensus estimates

Growth in nominal exports and earnings per shareUSD, year-over-year change

MSCI AC Asia

Pacific ex-JP EPS

EM Asia ex-China exports*

2018

2019

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

IT

Communication Services

Consumer Discretionary

Health Care

Utilities

Consumer Staples

Industrials

Energy

Materials

Financials

13

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

-30

0

30

60

90

'14 '15 '16 '17 '18

Th

ou

san

ds

A-shareOffshore China

Share of MSCI EM Index***

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Top and bottom left) FactSet, MSCI; (Bottom left) Bloomberg Finance L.P.; (Top right) Bloomberg, MSCI, World Bank (Bottom right) CEIC, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited. The CSI 300 represents onshore Chinese A-share large cap equities. MSCI China represents primarily offshore listed Chinese equities and the onshore equities included in MSCI benchmarks.*Share of EM GDP is for 2018 and is calculated as Chinese nominal GDP in USD as a percentage of all emerging markets within the MSCI EM index.**Share of EM market cap is for 2018 and is calculated as China’s market capitalization of listed domestic companies as a percentage of all emerging markets’ capitalization of listed domestic companies within the MSCI EM index. ***Currently, an index inclusion factor (IIF) of 10% is applied to China A Large Cap securities. By November 2019, the inclusion factor will be 20% for China A large Cap, ChiNext Large Cap and China A Mid Cap (including eligible ChiNext shares). 100% A share inclusion is shown for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

MSCI A-share inclusion China’s % share in selected emerging market indicators

Corporate earningsNext 12-month consensus earnings per share, USD, Jan. 2013 = 100

Foreign investors’ holdings of onshore Chinese equitiesRMB trillions

Stock Connect monthly net flowsHKD billions RMB billions

CSI 300

MSCI China

Foreign investor holdings

Total as a % of

domestic market cap Northbound (Hong Kong to China)Southbound

(China to Hong Kong)

45.4%38.0%

27.8% 30.5%23.4%

3.8%4.0%

19.0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Share of EMGDP*

Share of EMmarket cap**

10% A-shareinclusion(Current)

20% A-shareinclusion

(Nov 2019)

100% A-shareinclusion

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

14

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

USD EMD USD Asiahigh yield

USD EMDcorporates

USD Asiacorporates

USD DMhigh yield

U.S. high yield Local EMD Local DMsovereigns

Source: J.P. Morgan Economic Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Based on J.P. Morgan Asia Credit High Yield Index (USD Asia high yield), J.P. Morgan CEMBI (USD EMD corporates), J.P. Morgan EMBI Global (USD EMD), J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Corporates Index (USD Asia corporates), J.P. Morgan Developed Market HY Index (USD DM high yield), J.P. Morgan Domestic High Yield Index (U.S. high yield), J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global (Local EMD), J.P. Morgan GBI-DM (Local DM sovereigns). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

Debt return compositionLast 12 months

Income return

Price return

Currency return

Total return

15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

'89 '94 '99 '04 '09 '14

Global bond marketUSD trillions

10-year government bond yields

Share of global market

31/12/89 31/12/18

U.S. 61.3% 37.7%

Dev. ex-U.S. 37.8% 41.7%

EM 1.0% 20.5%EM: $22tn

Developed

ex-U.S.: $45tn

U.S.: $41tn

Source: FactSet, U.S. Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) BIS; (Right) Bank of Japan.*Data begins, and averages calculated from, 01/01/70 for U.S. Treasuries, 02/10/72 for German Bunds and 03/02/86 for Japanese Government Bonds. Pastperformance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

Average

since 1970* Latest

U.S. 6.4% 2.0%

Germany 5.5% -0.3%

Japan 2.3% -0.2%

16

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

'89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '1710%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

5

6

7

8

'89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17

Investment grade leverageEBITDA** / interest expense Debt / EBITDA

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left and bottom right) Bloomberg Barclays, FactSet; (Left and top right) J.P. Morgan Economic Research; *Investment grade is Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Credit – Corporate Investment Grade Index. **EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. Spreads indicated are benchmark yield-to-worst less comparable maturity Treasury yields. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

Corporate bond spreadSpread over comparable government bond, basis points*

Credit rating and duration

Average Latest

Investment grade 132bps 115bps

Interest coverage Leverage

Share of BBB in index

Duration (years)

Recessions

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

17

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

'90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

'21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28

Maturity profileUSD billions

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Top and bottom left) J.P. Morgan Economic Research; (Bottom right) BofA/ML, FactSet.*Default rate is defined as the percentage of the total market trading at or below 50% of par value and includes any Chapter 11 filing, pre-packaged filing or missedinterest payments. Spreads indicated are benchmark yield-to-worst less comparable maturity Treasury yields. **EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. U.S. corporate high yield is represented by the J.P. Morgan Domestic High Yield Index.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

High yield leverageEBITDA** / interest expense Debt/EBITDA

High yield spread and default rate*

Default rate Spread to worst (basis points)

10-yr average Latest

HY spread to worst 557bps 461bps

HY default rate 2.4% 1.5%

BB B CCC and below

Recessions

Average issuance: 2014 – 2018

Interest coverage Leverage

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

18

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) J.P. Morgan Economics Research.*J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Broad Diversified Index sub-component used for each country. Spread is the difference between the yield on each country’s local 3-5 yeargovernment bond and the yield on the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Government - Treasury (3-5 Year). **EM debt is represented by the J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Equal Weight Blended Index, which is an equal-weighted composite index of the J.P. GBI-EM Global Diversified, J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified and J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified indices. Spreads are the difference between the yield on EM debt securities and an equivalent maturity U.S. Treasury bond in basis points. Returns are calculated using monthly data from 31/01/03 –30/06/19.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

Spread between local rates and U.S. Treasuries3-5 year local currency government bond index*, basis points

EM debt spreads to U.S. Treasuries and returns12-month forward total return, spread in basis points**

Current spread range: 330-340

5-year average

Current

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Mexico

S. Africa

Russia

Indonesia

India

Brazil

Colombia

Malaysia

China

Poland

Thailand

19

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

'95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '19

Source: FactSet, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; (Right) BIS, Tullett Prebon.*Interest rate differential is the difference between the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and a basket of the 10-year yields of each of the markets included in the FederalReserve’s Broad Nominal Trade-Weighted Index (except Chile, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela due to data limitations), weighted by each market’s share of total global debt securities outstanding. Europe is defined as the 19 countries in the euro area. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

Dollar supplyCurrent account balance, % of nominal GDP USD broad nominal index

Dollar demandU.S. minus international 10-year yields* USD broad nominal index

Yield difference USD

Current account balance USD

20

-2.0-1.7

-1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0-0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3

0.3 0.4 0.5

1.21.4

3.0

1.0

-4

-2

0

2

4

Source: FactSet, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.*The real trade-weighted exchange rate index is the weighted average of a market’s currency relative to a basket of other major currencies adjusted for the effects ofinflation. The weights are determined by comparing the relative trade balances, in terms of one market’s currency, with other markets within the basket. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

Currency deviation from 10-year average in real effective exchange rate* termsNumber of standard deviations away from average

FX above

long-term

average

FX below

long-term

average

Current

Max

Min

21

-4 -2 0 2 4

Commodity Index

Agriculture

Natural Gas

Industrial Metals

Oil

Precious Metals

Gold

Example

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) CME; (Right) Barclays, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, MSCI. Commodities are represented by the appropriate Bloomberg Commodity sub-index priced in U.S. dollars. Crude oil shown is West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. Other commodity prices are represented by futures contracts. Z-scores are calculated using daily prices over the past five years. Based on Bloomberg Commodity Index (Comdty.); MSCI ACWI Select – Energy Producers IMI, Metals & Mining Producers ex Gold & Silver IMI, Gold Miners IMI, Agriculture Producers IMI (Energy (E), M&M (E), Gold (E), Agri. (E)); Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Credit – Corporate Energy Index (Energy (FI)); Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Credit – Corporate High Yield Metals & Mining Index (U.S. M&M (FI)); Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate Credit – Corporate Metals & Mining Index (Euro M&M (FI)); J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Corporate Credit – Corporate Metals & Mining Index (EM M&M (FI)).Five-year total return data is used to calculate annualized returns (Ann. Ret.) and 5-year price return data is used to calculate annualized volatility (Ann. Vol.) and reflects the period 30/06/14 – 30/06/19. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

Commodity pricesCommodity price z-scores, USD per unit

Returns

High level

Current

Low level

$2.3

$42

$1,414

$113

$1.6 $4.8

$73

$1,419

$144$84

$1,050

$37

$105$26

$58

$195$144

$172

$135$73

$80

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2Q '19 Ann. Ret. Ann. Vol.

Euro M&M

(FI)

Ene rgy

(FI)Gold (E) M&M (E)

Euro M&M

(FI)Gold (E)

EM M&M

(FI)Gold (E)

8 .6 % - 7 .3 % 6 2 .9 % 3 7 .5 % - 0 .9 % 17 .5 % 5 .9 % 3 6 .5 %

Ene rgy

(FI)

EM M&M

(FI)M&M (E) Agri. (E)

US M&M

(FI)

EM M&M

(FI)

US M&M

(FI)M&M (E)

2 .1% - 10 .9 % 5 7 .8 % 2 0 .3 % - 3 .5 % 4 .6 % 3 .4 % 2 4 .3 %

Agri. (E) Agri. (E)US M&M

(FI)

EM M&M

(FI)

Ene rgy

(FI)

Ene rgy

(FI)Agri. (E) Ene rgy (E)

- 0 .2 % - 13 .7 % 4 5 .5 % 14 .7 % - 3 .7 % 4 .0 % 3 .0 % 19 .8 %

EM M&M

(FI)

Euro M&M

(FI)

EM M&M

(FI)

US M&M

(FI)

EM M&M

(FI)Agri. (E)

Ene rgy

(FI)Comdty.

- 0 .8 % - 16 .1% 3 2 .4 % 9 .9 % - 4 .1% 2 .4 % 2 .8 % 14 .0 %

US M&M

(FI)Ene rgy (E) Ene rgy (E) Gold (E) Agri. (E)

US M&M

(FI)

Euro M&M

(FI)

US M&M

(FI)

- 4 .4 % - 2 0 .6 % 2 9 .2 % 9 .4 % - 8 .9 % 2 .1% 2 .5 % 13 .6 %

Ene rgy (E)US M&M

(FI)

Euro M&M

(FI)Ene rgy (E) Comdty.

Euro M&M

(FI)Gold (E) Agri. (E)

- 15 .1% - 2 3 .7 % 2 1.9 % 9 .1% - 11.2 % 1.5 % - 0 .1% 12 .0 %

Gold (E) Comdty. Agri. (E)Ene rgy

(FI)Ene rgy (E) M&M (E) M&M (E)

EM M&M

(FI)

- 16 .4 % - 2 4 .7 % 15 .7 % 9 .0 % - 11.4 % 0 .3 % - 0 .1% 11.0 %

Comdty. Gold (E) Comdty.Euro M&M

(FI)Gold (E) Comdty. Ene rgy (E)

Euro M&M

(FI)

- 17 .0 % - 2 6 .3 % 11.8 % 3 .9 % - 13 .0 % - 1.2 % - 3 .6 % 8 .4 %

M&M (E) M&M (E)Ene rgy

(FI)Comdty. M&M (E) Ene rgy (E) Comdty.

Ene rgy

(FI)

- 19 .0 % - 4 0 .1% 11.1% 1.7 % - 17 .8 % - 2 .1% - 9 .1% 5 .9 %

2014 - 2019

22

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

-1,200

-900

-600

-300

0

300

600

900

Jan '17 May '17 Sep '17 Jan '18 May '18 Sep '18 Jan '19

U.S. oil inventory and rig count* Number of rigs Billion barrels

Source: FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Top right) Baker Hughes, U.S. Department of Energy; (Left) U.S. Energy Information Administration.*Weekly U.S. crude oil and petroleum ending inventory includes strategic petroleum reserve, and active rig count represents both natural gas and oil rigs. Pastperformance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 30/06/19.

Crude oil production growthMonthly change, thousand barrels per day Total, million barrels per day

Brent crude and USD real effective exchange rate (REER)USD / bbl Index

USD depreciation

USD appreciation

Brent crude oil USD REER (inverted)

Rig count U.S. oil inventory

Change from Iran, Libya & Venezuela

Change from OPEC (Less Iran, Libya & Venezuela) & Russia

Change from U.S.

Global

80

85

90

95

100

10520

40

60

80

100

120

140

'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

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