1

Third International IPR-MENA Social Policy Conference on:

A new social contract for MENA countries:Experiences from Development and Social Policies

“Jordan’s experience with social and labour marketpolicy reforms”

Prof. Nidal Katamine

5-6 December 2016

Arab spring

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Content• Socio economic indicators

• Labour market indicators

• National Employment strategy: Coherence between Economic Policies

Poverty alleviation (satellite units)

• Active labour market programs (ALMP) and supporting institutions

• Self employment

• Migrant Policies

• Syrian Crisis

• Other socio-economic labour market related policies

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Jordan: Some Macroeconomic indicators

4

1055 10741281

1427

981

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Foreign Direct Investment in Jordan (JD Million)

29282958

2940

2889

2795

2700

2750

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Per Capita GDP at Current Market Prices (JD)

6.99 7.438.11

8.809.53

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Population (In Millions)

9.1

7.38.6

6.6

4.7

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Change in Nominal GDP at Market Prices

Source: CBJ4 of 29

Some socio-Economic indicatorsRef. YearvalueIndicators

20159.5Population (In Million)

201526,637GDP at Current Market Prices

Q2- 201614.7%Unemployment rate (Q2 2016)

July 20161.4%Inflation rate

2014females (9.8%) and Males (3.7%).

Illiteracy Rate (Population Age15+)

2014females (49.2%) Males (50.8%).

Students in Basic Education

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6

6.6

1

1.2

7

0.1

3 0.6

3

0.0

3

0.0

1

0.0

1

0.0

2

0.0

0

0.0

1

0.0

2

0.0

1

0.6

4

0.0

0

0.0

1

0.1

0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Jord

an

Syri

a

Iraq

Pale

stin

e

yem

en

Ind

on

esia

Paki

stan

Ban

glsd

ish

Turk

ey

srila

nka

Ph

illip

ine

Ind

ia

Sud

an

Som

alia

Lib

ya

Egyp

t

Mo

rro

co

USA

Oth

ers

Mill

ion

s

Jordanian69%

Non-Jordanian

31%

Population in Jordan according to Nationality

Source: DoS6 of 29

Source: DoS

Distribution of all population, 2015

Distribution of Jordanian population, 2015

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Male

Female

Male

Female

Females to males around 50%:50%

Labour market Indicators

8

Unemployment rates 2014-2016

Unemployment rates…10 years ago..

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Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1

MaleFemale Total

Q2

Annual AverageQ2

Labour Market Indicators

Employed 2015(1,398,030)

Unemployed 2015

(209,569)

Dos, NCHRD

84.0%

16.0%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ذكور

إناث

0.69

0.31

0%20%40%60%80%

26.5%

9.7%

63.9%

0.0% 20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%

بكالورٌوس فأعلى

دبلوم متوسط

توجٌهً فما دون

40.3%

9.3%

50.4%

0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%

Labour Force 2015

(1,607,599)

Tawjihi and below.

Diploma

Bachelor and Above

Females

Males

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Economic Growth and Created Jobs

Dos and CBJ

Economic Growth jobs

69,092

76,316

62,813

52,888

48,068

48,571

42,000

- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

20142014

2013

2012

7.2%

6.6%

2.3%

2.6%

2.7%

2.8%

3.1%

0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

New entrants to the labour market are estimated at 120, 000 per annum.

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2011

2010

2009

2008

Economic growth and Employment

Calculated based On Dos, CBJ and NCHRD

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

Employment Growth of Jordanians

Economic Growth Rate

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Despite variation, the employment output elasticity is 0.4-0.5

Employment-output elasticity, 2000-2014, (employment lagged by one year, two year moving average).

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Vocational and Technical Training

NES review report

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Net Employment Creation by Sex and Nationality 2007-2013

J Non-J Male Female

Similarly the middle is missing in Jordan

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Low-Skilled Medium-Skilled Hgh-Skilled

Supply Demand

Job Polarization, EU 2010-2010% changes in labor supply/skills upgrade (ISCED) and labor demand for skills/tasks (ISCO)(Maselli, 2012)

The Middles is missing

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National Employment Strategy (NES)

NES has been launched under the patronage of

His Majesty in 2012, to concentrate on

Employment policies, enhancing the Standard of

livings and increase employability, wages and

productivity.

Steering committee and technical ones have been

established.

NES Horizons

•Restructure the Economy and increase productivity

•Correct mismatch and enhance SMES

•Reduce unemploym

ent

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NES Policies and Economic Growth

Economic growth

Spur investment

Human capital

Enhance business environment

Economic empowerment for

females

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Prioritizing sectors:

Where to concentrate :value added, trade and/or employment

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The size of the bubble indicts the sector’s share of employment

International trade

Level

of

skills

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Bubble size = share of employment

Medicine industries

Air transportIT

TelecommunicationsEducation

Financial and insurance services

Mining

Transformative Industries

Agriculture

Health

Restaurants and hotels

Construction

electricity and water

Trade

Skill Level

Commercial trading

MOL

33

5,7

07

29

8,3

42

28

0,2

63

27

9,7

98

28

6,1

97

32

4,4

10

31

5,0

45

250,000

260,000

270,000

280,000

290,000

300,000

310,000

320,000

330,000

340,000

Legal Migrant workers

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Migrant Workers and Replacement policies

More than 60% are Egyptians.

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2009

**300,000

DOS, MOL

Jordanians Vs. Migrants..Replacement is the tool

64%10%

26%

Employed1,398,030

51%

9%

40%

unemployed

96%

4% 0%

Legal Migrants

209,569

315,045

96%

0%4%

Illegal Migrants

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Tawjihi and below

Bachelor and above

Diploma

Replacement policies…………How??

Vocational and technical training

Labour market indicators 2015

893

136

370

106 19

84

302

12 1 -

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

دونفماتوجيهي متوسطدبلوم فأعلىبكالوريوس

Tho

usa

nd

s

االردنٌونالمشتغلون

االردنٌونالمتعطلون

الوافدةالعمالة

Training and replacement

Correct Mismatch Employed Jordanians

Unemployed JordaniansMigrants

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Tawjihi and below Diploma Bachelor and above

MOL estimates

Replacement scenarios

893,341

923,541 938,641

1,044,340

800,000

850,000

900,000

950,000

1,000,000

1,050,000

1,100,000

0% 10% 15% 50%

Employed (Tawjihi and below) estimates

10.6% 10.3% 10.1%9.2%

13.0% 12.8% 12.7%11.9%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

0% 10% 15% 50%

Unemployment scenarios

)البطالة دونفماتوجيهي ) االجماليةالبطالة

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Tawjihi and below Overall

Sorce: DoS

2014 2013 2012 2011 2010

فأعلىبكالورٌوس 28.5 34.3 36.0 38.5 40.9

دبلوم 5.1 4.5 5.4 10.5 9.2

مهنٌةتلمذه 1.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.5

دونفماثانوي 65.1 60.7 57.7 50.2 48.4

65.1 60.7 57.7 50.2 48.4

1.30.4 0.8

0.9 1.5

28.534.3 36.0 38.5 40.9

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Created Jobs as according to qualifications

Created Jobs and Demand……the Evidence

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21

Employment Tools

Employment fairs

Satellite Units

Training and Employment

programs

Micro finance

Active Labour Market Programs (ALMP)

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Ministry of Labour and supporting institutions

Source: MOL, VTC, NET, DEF

89

40

83

58

12

30

9

83

88

0

5000

10000

15000

عدد الملتحقٌن المنتظمٌن عدد الخرٌجٌن

VTC Training

2014 2015

80

8

19

44

14

46

22

66

0

1000

2000

3000

عدد الملتحقٌن بالتدرٌب فً قطاع االنشاءات

عدد المشتغلٌن بفرص عمل دائمة

NET_ Construction sector

2014 2015TraineesFull timeworkers

95

35

11

25

2

74

27

10

35

0

0

5000

10000

15000

عدد المشارٌع الممولة عدد فرص العمل المولدة

]DEF indicators

2014 2015

Projects Jobs created

Trainees Graduates

63% of the beneficiaries are females22 of 29

Satellite Units

2323 of 29

MoL Procedures toward mitigating the impact of the Syrian crisis

• Finalizing Jordan Compact• The Rule of origin (RoO) instructions to encourage

investments.• The Target for 2016 around 50,000 work permits.• Encouraging Employment intensive programs (EIP)

(KfW, ILO, GIZ) to create more jobs.• Stop recruitment of new Migrants • Grace periods for issuing work permits for Syrians• Contact unions and cooperatives to issue work permits in

agriculture and construction sectors.• Relaxed inspection campaigns.• Daily work permits are increasing sharply.

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Registered Syrians on UNHCR data base

UNHCR25 of 29

UNHCR

515,887Refugees have reported

their educational status

79,500Refugees have reported

having no education

66,951Refugees have not

provided any data

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

84

,06

7

14

,53

1

12

,26

2

5,8

83

5,3

28

4,5

43

3,4

81

3,0

76

2,4

51

2,1

01

2,0

67

1,7

82

1,6

43

1,5

55

1,3

77

1,1

46

1,1

02

1,0

93

1,0

08

HO

US

EK

EE

PE

RS

…

FAR

M-H

AN

DS

& …

BU

ILD

ER

S …

FAR

ME

RS

(CR

OP

AN

D …

CA

R, T

AX

I AN

D V

AN

…

SA

LE

SP

ER

SO

NS

SA

LE

S …

GE

NE

RA

L M

AN

AG

ER

S …

TA

ILOR

S, D

RE

SS

MA

KE…

CA

RP

EN

TE

RS

AN

D …

CO

OK

S

HA

IRD

RE

SS

ER

S, B

AR

B…

BA

KE

RS

, PA

ST

RY

-…

PR

IMA

RY

ED

UC

AT

ION

…

BL

AC

KS

MIT

HS

AN

D …

MO

TO

R V

EH

ICL

E …

SE

CO

ND

AR

Y …

EL

EC

TR

ON

ICS

…

AC

CO

UN

TA

NT

S

233,500Adults above and equal age

18

170,915Adults reported on the current

or previous occupation

62,585Adults reported no

occupation

Education level (18 years and above)profession

The Distribution of Registered Syrians on UNHCR data base

26 of 29

27 of 29

3000 3150 3200 3800

6468

11715

27045 27,783 28,54329975

31864 32451

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Number of Syrian Work permits

Other Socio-Economic Labour market related policies

• Minimum wage• Tripartite committee to revise the minimum wage taking into

consideration:

• Standard of livings, inflation rate, competiveness of the

economy, cost of production..etc.

• Child labour• Enforce the labour law

• Anti-Human trafficking• Detailed inspection

• Enforce law

• Follow international standards.

2828 of 29

Thank youQ & A

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