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© Irrigation Association 11
Driving our storyJohn Farner, Irrigation Association
California Agricultural Irrigation Association – September 5, 2019
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Greetings from Washington D.C.
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House Version of the Farm Bill
• Eliminates livestock carve‐out
• Expands eligibility for EQIP contracts
• Funds merged EQIP and CSP program at $2 billion in FY19, $2.5 billion in FY20, $2.75 billion in FY21, $2.935 billion in FY22 and $3.0 billion in 2023.
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Senate Version of Farm Bill(h) WATER CONSERVATION OR IRRIGATION EFFICIENCY PRACTICE(1) AVAILABILITY OF PAYMENTSThe Secretary may provide payments under this subsection to a producer for a waterconservation or irrigation practice.(2) PRIORITY In providing payments to a producer for a water conservation or irrigation practice, theSecretary shall give priority to applications in which—(A) consistent with the law of the State in which the eligible land of the producer is located, there isa reduction in water use in the operation of the producer; or(B) the producer agrees not to use any associated water savings to bring new land, other thanincidental land needed for efficient operations, under irrigated production, unless the producer isparticipating in a watershed‐wide project that will effectively conserve water, as determined by theSecretary; or(C) the water conservation or irrigation practice addresses regional drought control efforts.
© Irrigation Association 16
Senate Version of Farm Bill
• Reduces the livestock carve‐out from 60% to 50%
• Expands eligibility for EQIP contracts
• Funds EQIP at the following levels (note that the Senate bill does not eliminate the CSP):
2019 ‐ $1.473 B
2020 ‐ $1.478 B
2021 ‐ $1.541 B
2022 ‐ $1.571 B
2023 ‐ $1.595 B
• Funds the Foundation For Food and Agriculture Research at $200 million.
© Irrigation Association 17
The 2014 Farm Bill passed over a year late due to disputes between Republican factions
Senate Agriculture Committee reports a Farm Bill
Entire Senate passes a Farm Bill
House Agriculture Committee reports a Farm Bill
The 2008 Farm Bill expired (some programs including SNAP continued through appropriations)
The 2008 Farm Bill extended for one year
Senate Agriculture Committee reports a second Farm Bill
House Agriculture Committee reports a second Farm Bill
Entire Senate passes second Farm Bill
House’s second Farm Bill fails on the House floor (195‐234, 62 Republicans voted against)
House passes a “Farm Only” Bill
House passes a “Nutrition Only” Bill
Conference Committee meets to reconcile House and Senate bills
House passes Conference Report
Senate passes Conference Report
President Obama signs the 2014 Farm Bill into law at Michigan State University
April 2012
July 2012
Dec. 2012
June 2012
Oct. 2012
May 14, 2013
May 15, 2013
June 20, 2013
July 2013
Sept. 2013
Oct. 2013
Jan. 2014
Feb. 4, 2014
Feb. 7, 2014
June 10, 2013
© Irrigation Association 18
2018 Farm BillH.R. 2: Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018S. 3042: Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018
18
Current status
Resolvingdifferences
Passed House
6/21/18
Passed committee
5/3/18
Passed committee6/13/18
Introduced in House 4/12/18
Introduced in Senate 6/11/18
Signed into law
Previous actions in 2018
January 30: Sec. Perdue releases the Trump admin’s “Farm Bill Legislative Principles,” calling for state flexibility to set SNAP requirements and no increases to crop insurance subsidies
April 12: Rep. Conaway introduces the Farm Bill with tightened work provisions for SNAP, provoking unified opposition to the legislation from Democrats
May 18: The Farm Bill fails on the House floor after the Freedom Caucus withholds supports until Republican leadership brings immigration votes to the floor
March 19: Democratic members of the House Agriculture Committee cease all negotiations over reported SNAP changes; Chairman Conaway refuses to release the full Farm Bill text
• Deadline: September 30, 2018• First House vote failed due to opposition from the Freedom Caucus• The House and Senate have both voted to advance to conference
committee• House is in summer recess until early September
June 21, 2018 House vote
213
20 191
For
Against
Passed Senate
6/28/18June 28, 2018 Senate vote
39
11
48For
Against
July 31: The Senate agreed by voice vote to move to conference committee. The House already agreed to do so on July 18. The first meeting will not be until after summer recess
© Irrigation Association 19
Differences between the House and Senate’s Farm Bills
Subject House version Senate version
Crop insurance • Eliminates the individual farm coverage under ARC, must use county‐wide data • Makes no major changes
Commodityprograms
• Maintains reference prices for almost all commodities in Price Loss Coverage
• Reduces Adjusted Gross Income limit from $900,000 to $700,000
• Does not limit payouts
SNAP• Creates a 20 hour per week work requirement
for ABWDs• Increases the ABWD age from 50 to 60
• Makes no major changes
Conservation programs
• Suspends new enrollment in the Conservation Stewardship Program
• Increases EQIP spending• Increases CRP acres from 24 million to 29 million
• Reduces acres covered under CSP and funding for EQIP programs
• Increases CRP acres from 24 million to 25 million
USDA structure • Makes no major changes • Recreates the position of under secretary for rural development
Bipartisan support• No Democrats offered amendments to the bill
in committee• All Democrats voted against the bill in
committee and on the House floor
• Many Democratic amendments were offered and adopted in committee
• All Democrats on the Agriculture Committee voted for the bill
Hemp legalization • Does not address the issue • Adds Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R‐KY) hemp legalization bill
© Irrigation Association 20
Senate members of the Farm Bill conference (9 total)
Pat Roberts (R‐KS)
Mitch McConnell (R‐KY)
John Hoeven (R‐ND)
Joni Ernst (R‐IA)
Mike Boozman (R‐AR)
Debbie Stabenow (D‐MI)
Sherrod Brown (D‐OH)
Patrick Leahy (D‐VT)
Heidi Heitkamp (D‐ND)
© Irrigation Association 21
House members of the Farm Bill conference (47 total)
Agriculture
Republicans1. Mike Conway (TX-11)2. Glenn Thompson (PA-5)3. Bob Goodlatte (VA-6)4. Frank Lucas (OK-3)5. Mike Rogers (AL-3)6. Austin Scott (GA-3)7. Rick Crawford (AR-1)8. Vicky Hartzler (MO-4)9. Rodney Davis (IL-13)10.Ted Yoho (FL-3)11. David Rouzer (NC-7)12. Roger Marshall (KS-1)13. Jodey Arrington (TX-19)
Democrats1. Collin Peterson (MN-7)2. David Scott (GA-13)3. Jim Costa (CA-16)4. Tim Walz (MN-1)5. Marcia Fudge (OH-11)6. Jim McGovern (MA-2)7. Filemon Vela (TX-34)8. Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM-
1) 9. Ann Kuster (NH-2)10.Tom O’Halleran (AZ-1)
Foreign Affairs
Republicans1. Ed Royce (CA-39)2. Steve Chabot (OH-1)Democrats1. Eliot Engel (NY-16)
Natural Resources
Republicans1. Rob Bishop (UT-1)2. Bruce Westerman (AR-4)Democrats1. Raul Grijalva (RM, AZ-3)
Science, Space, & Tech.
Republicans1. Ralph Abraham (LA-5)2. Neal Dunn (FL-2)Democrats1. Eddie Bernice Johnson (TX-30)
Education and Workforce
Republicans1. Virginia Foxx (NC-5)2. Rick Allen (GA-12)Democrats1. Alma Adams (NC-12)
Energy and Commerce
Republicans1. John Shimkus (IL-15)2. Kevin Cramer (ND-AL)Democrats1. Paul Tonko (NY-20)
Financial Services
Republicans1. Jeb Hensarling (TX-5)2. Sean Duffy (WI-7)Democrats1. Maxine Waters (CA-43)
Trans. & Infrastructure
Republicans1. Jeff Denham (CA-10)2. Bob Gibbs (OH-7)Democrats1. Cheri Bustos (IL-17)
Oversight & Gov’t Reform
Democrats1. Stacey Plaskett (VI)
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Reauthorization of major programs
• Higher Education Act• NDAA• Farm Bill• FAA
FY2019 appropriations
Trump administration nominations
Supreme Court vacancy
Unfinished business for the 115th Congress
© Irrigation Association 23
Reauthorization of major government programs
National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)• Defines the next year’s military strategy and
funding levels, and usually includes reforms to other government entities
Higher Education Act (HEA)• Authorizes many major education
programs, usually for four years
Farm Bill• Authorizes through 2023 most agricultural
support and food assistance programs, including SNAP
• Also includes some rural infrastructure spending
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)• Approves five years of funding for the FAA
in addition to other policy reforms including drones and funding for some infrastructure projects
Resolved Differences
Full House
Full Senate
House Committee
Senate Committee
Resolved Differences
Full House
Full Senate
House Committee
Senate Committee
Resolved Differences
Full House
Full Senate
House Committee
Senate Committee
Resolved Differences
Full House
Full Senate
House Committee
Senate Committee
May 24, 2018: H.R. 5515 passed House (351-66)June 18, 2018: Passed Senate with amendment (85-
10)August 13, 2018: Signed by the president
June 21, 2018: H.R. 2 passed House (213-211)June 28, 2018: Passed Senate with amendment (86-11)
Dec. 1, 2017: H.R. 4508 passed House Education and the Workforce Committee
April 27, 2018: H.R. 4 passed House (393-13)
© Irrigation Association 24
Legislation to watch: FY2019 appropriations (1/2)
Subcommittee Full committee Full House/Senate Conference Signed
President
5/9/18
5/22/18
5/16/18
5/24/18
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
House
Senate
Agriculture
President
5/9/18
6/12/18
5/17/18
6/14/18
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
House
Senate
Commerce/ Justice/ Science
President
6/13/18
6/26/18
6/13/18
6/28/18
6/28/18
8/23/18
N/A
N/A
House
Senate
Defense
President
5/7/18
5/22/18
5/16/18
5/24/18
6/8/18
6/25/18
N/A
N/A
House
Senate
Energy and Water
Financial Services
President
6/13/18
6/19/18
6/13/18
6/21/18
7/19/18
8/1/18
N/A
N/A
House
Senate
Homeland Security
President
7/19/18
6/19/18
7/25/18
6/21/18
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
House
Senate
© Irrigation Association 25
Legislation to watch: FY2019 appropriations (2/2)
Subcommittee Full committee Full House/Senate Conference Signed
Interior & Environment President
5/15/18
6/12/18
6/6/18
6/14/18
7/19/18
8/1/18
N/A
N/A
House
Senate
Labor/HHS/
EducationPresident
6/15/18
6/26/18
7/11/18
6/28/18
N/A
8/23/18
N/A
N/A
House
Senate
Legislative Branch
President
4/26/18
6/12/18
5/8/18
6/14/18
6/8/18
6/25/18
N/A
N/A
House
Senate
Military Construction/Veterans Affairs
President
4/26/18
6/5/18
5/8/18
6/7/18
6/8/18
6/25/18
N/A
N/A
House
Senate
State/Foreign
OperationsPresident
6/13/18
6/19/18
6/20/18
6/21/18
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
House
Senate
Transportation/HUD President
5/16/18
6/5/18
5/23/18
6/7/18
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
House
Senate
© Irrigation Association 2626
The Trump administration has about half of key staff in place, with some top-level officials still missing
Status of key positions requiring Senate confirmation
■ No nominee ■ Awaiting nomination ■ Awaiting confirmation ■ Confirmed
AS OF SEPTEMBER 4, 2018
156
7
185
357
Vacant cabinet secretaries:• Environmental Protection Agency (no
nominee)
Departments without a deputy secretary:• Commerce (Karen Dunn Kelley
nominated)• Treasury (Justin George Muzinich
nominated)• Veterans Affairs (no nominee)• Homeland Security (no nominee)• Small Business Administration (no
nominee)
© Irrigation Association 27
2018 midterm elections overview
A look ahead to the 2018 congressional and gubernatorial elections
© Irrigation Association 28
‐45
‐29
‐18
‐48
‐4
‐47
‐12
‐48
‐15
‐26
‐5
‐8
‐52
+5
+8
‐30
‐63
‐13
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
The president’s party has lost an average of 25 seats in midterm elections since World War II
President’s party gain/loss of seats in HouseVITAL STATISTICS ON CONGRESS
2010: Democrats lose control of the House after passing the ACA
■ Democrats ■ Republicans
1994: Democrats lose their House majority due to health reform plans and Gingrich’s “Contract with America”
© Irrigation Association 29
The president’s party has lost Senate seats in 19 of the last 26 midterm elections
President’s party gain/loss of seats in SenateVITAL STATISTICS ON CONGRESS
5
10
2
1
1
1
2014
1914
Surge and decline theoryWhen presidents are elected or reelected, their party picks up House and Senate seats, causing them to be overexposed in the following midterm election, or six years later in the Senate
■ Democrats ■ Republicans
© Irrigation Association 30
Recent midterm wave elections
1994 electionsPresident: Bill Clinton (D)
Republican gains:54 seats in the House8 seats in the Senate
2010 elections President: Barack Obama (D)
Republican gains: 63 seats in the House 6 seats in the Senate
2006 electionsPresident: George W. Bush (R)
Democratic gains: 31 seats in the House6 seats in the Senate
© Irrigation Association 31
Presidents with a sub-50% approval rating lose an average of 40 seats in the midterms
Presidential job approval vs. midterm results since 1966
49%
57%
47%
52%
43%
63%58%
46%
66% 63%
39%45%
42%
1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
-47
-12
-48
-15-26
-5 -8
-52
5 8
-30
-63
-13
Trump Job Approval
43.3%RCP Average: August 30,
2018
Job ApprovalOver 60%50%-60%Under 50%
Average Change+3 Seats-12 Seats-40 Seats
© Irrigation Association 32
Current partisan breakdown of the 115th Congress
House of Representatives Senate
Total Republicans 51
Total Democrats/Independents 49
Vacancies 1
Total Republicans 236
Total Democrats 193
Vacancies 6
© Irrigation Association 33
Based on 2016 results, Democrats need a 5%-7.5% swing to recapture the House
23
68
37
15
5
13
42
26
17
10
District won by otherparty's presidential
nominee
Less than 20%Less than 15%Less than 10%Less than 5%
■ Dem.-held seats ■ GOP-held seats
MARGIN OF VICTORY CALCULATED BY SUBTRACTING WINNER % FROM 2ND HIGHEST OPPONENT
Vulnerable seats based on 2016 House results
House members with the largest war chests for the 2018 midterm elections
Top 10 House candidates with the most cash on hand
34
AS OF JUNE 30, 2018
■ Democrat ■ Republican
$6,108,635
$4,533,753
$4,362,699
$4,342,230
$4,170,667
$4,135,573
$4,004,938
$3,449,785
$3,388,132
$3,203,173
DEVIN NUNES (R-CA22)
JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-NJ5)
RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-IL8)
ADAM SCHIFF (D-CA28)
JOE KENNEDY, III (D-MA4)
KEVIN MCCARTHY (R-CA23)
LLOYD DOGGETT (D-TX35)
RICHARD NEAL (D-MA1)
ANN WAGNER (R-MO2)
GERRY CONNOLLY (D-VA11)
35
Trump’s endorsees have won almost all contested races so far
Pennsylvania State Rep. Rick Saccone is the sole general election exception
• Saccone lost the March 13, 2018 PA-18 special election to Democrat Conor Lamb 49.86%-49.53%
Businessman Foster Friess is the sole primary election exception this year
• Friess lost the August 22, 2018 Wyoming gubernatorial primary to Wyoming State Treasurer Mark Gordon 32% to 25%
Election Date Endorsee Result AZ 08 2/27/18 Debby Lesko Special election winTX SEN 3/7/18 Ted Cruz Primary winPA 18 3/14/18 Rick Saccone Special election lossCA GOV 6/5/18 John Cox Primary winPA SEN 6/12/18 Lou Barletta Primary winMS SEN 6/12/18 Roger Wicker Primary winND SEN 6/12/18 Kevin Cramer Primary winNV GOV 6/12/18 Adam Laxalt Primary winSC 01 6/12/18 Katie Arrington Primary winSC GOV 6/12/18 Henry McMaster Primary winNY 11 6/26/18 Dan Donovan Primary winUT SEN 6/26/18 Mitt Romney Primary winAL 02 7/17/18 Martha Roby Primary winGA GOV 7/24/18 Brian Kemp Primary winTN SEN 8/2/18 Marsha Blackburn Primary winTN 08 8/2/18 David Kustoff Primary winMI SEN 8/7/18 John James Primary winOH 12 8/7/18 Troy Balderson Special election win KS 03 8/7/18 Kevin Yoder Primary winMI GOV 8/7/18 Bill Schuette Primary winWY SEN 8/20/18 John Barrasso Primary winWY GOV 8/20/18 Foster Friess Primary lossAZ GOV 8/28/18 Doug Ducey Primary winFL 01 8/28/18 Matt Gaetz Primary winFL GOV 8/28/18 Ron DeSantis Primary winLA 03 11/6/18 Clay Higgins tbdTX GOV 11/6/18 Greg Abbott tbd
Three open Republican seats are rated “Likely Democratic,” and four open Republican seats are rated “Lean Democratic”
36
Representatives not seeking re-election in D-leaning districts
Solid Democratic
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (D+5)
(R-FL27)
Lean Democratic
NAME OF RETIRING INCUMBENT (“PARTISAN VOTER INDEX”), (PARTY-STATE-DISTRICT)
D+33 Luis Gutierrez (D-IL04)D+32 John Conyers (D-MI13)†D+31 Robert Brady (D-PA04)D+19 Gene Green (D-TX29)D+17 Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI01)*
Beto O’Rourke (D-TX16)*D+9 Jared Polis (D-CO02)
Niki Tsongas (D-MA03)D+7 Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM01)D+6 John Delaney (D-MD06)D+4 Sandy Levin (D-MI09)
Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ09)*
Elizabeth Esty (D-CT05)*
Likely Democratic
Martha McSally (R+1)
(R-AZ02)*
Darrell Issa (R+1)(R-CA49)
Ruben Kihuen (D+3)
(D-NV04)
Ryan Costello (R+2)
(R-PA06)
Carol Shea-Porter (R+2)
(D-NH01)
Jacky Rosen (R+2)
(D-NV03)*
Frank LoBiondo (R+1)
(R-NJ02)
Rodney Frelinghuysen(R+3)
(R-NJ11)
Patrick Meehan (R+1)
(R-PA05) †
Republican Toss-Ups
Five open Republican seats and two open Democratic seats are rated “Toss Ups”
37
Representatives not seeking re-election
Solid RepublicanLean Republican
R+9 Joe Barton (R-TX06)R+11 Tim Murphy (R-PA18) †R+13 Trent Franks (R-AZ08) †
Tom Rooney (R-FL17)Gregg Harper (R-MS03)Sam Johnson (R-TX03)Blake Farenthold (R-TX27) †Bob Goodlatte (R-VA06)
R+14 Kristi Noem (R-SD-AL)*Lou Barletta (R-PA09)*
R+15 Trey Gowdy (R-SC04)R+16 Kevin Cramer (R-ND At large)*
Jeb Hensarling (R-TX05)R+17 Todd Rokita (R-IN04)*
Jim Bridenstine (R-OK01) †
R+18 Luke Messer (R-IN06)*R+20 Marsha Blackburn (R-TN07)*
Jimmy Duncan (R-TN02)R+21 Raul Labrador (R-ID01)*R+22 Bill Shuster (R-PA13)R+24 Diane Black (R-TN06)*
Lynn Jenkins (R+10)(R-KS02)
Steve Pearce (R+6)(R-NM02)*
Dennis Ross (R+6)(R-FL15)
David Trott (R+4)(R-MI11)
Dave Reichert (even)(R-WA08)
Likely Republican
NAME OF RETIRING INCUMBENT (“PARTISAN VOTER INDEX”), (PARTY-STATE-DISTRICT)
Paul Ryan (R+5)(R-WI01)
Tom Garrett (R+6)(R-VA05)
Democratic Toss-Ups
Tim Walz (R+5)(D-MN01)*
Rick Nolan (R+4)(D-MN08)*
Ed Royce (even)(R-CA39)
Evan Jenkins (R+23)*(R-WV03)
R+7 Ron DeSantis (R-FL06)R+10 Lamar Smith (R-TX21)R+11 Ted Poe (R-TX02)R+14 Conor Lamb (D-PA14)
Robert Pittenger (R+7)(R-NC09)
Mark Sanford (R+10)(R-SC01)
Brain drain? Many Republican committee chairs will not seek reelection in 2018, as well as Speaker Ryan
38
Republican committee and subcommittee chairs retiring after 2018REPUBLICAN CONFERENCE RULES LIMIT CHAIRMANSHIPS TO 6 YEARS
JudiciaryBob Goodlatte (R-VA6)
Financial ServicesJeb Hensarling (R-TX5)
Aviation Sub.Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ2)
Space, Science & TechnologyLamar Smith (R-TX21)
Transportation & InfrastructureBill Shuster (R-PA9)
VA Appropriations Sub.*Charlie Dent (R-PA15)
AdministrationGregg Harper (R-MS3)
BudgetDiane Black (R-TN6)
Foreign AffairsEd Royce (R-CA39)
Term-limited and retiring
Retiring but not term-limited
Term-limited but still running
Homeland SecurityMichael McCaul (R-TX10)
AppropriationsRodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ11)
OversightTrey Gowdy (R-SC4)
Speaker of the HousePaul Ryan (R-WI1)
The 2018 election will determine who will replace Paul Ryan as speaker in the 116th Congress
39
Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)• Minority Leader – No. 1 House Democrat• Previous experience as speaker• Largest Dem. fundraiser• Has led House Dems since 2003
Steny Hoyer (D-MD)• Minority Whip – No. 2 House Democrat• Has been deputy to Pelosi for 15 years
Tim Ryan (D-OH)• Long shot because he is not in
leadership• Ranking member of the
Appropriations Subcommittee for the Legislative Branch
• Unsuccessfully challenged Pelosi in 2016
Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)• Majority Leader – No. 2 House
Republican• Has ties to President Trump• Major fundraiser for House Republicans• Lacked support in 2015 from Freedom
Caucus
Steve Scalise (R-LA)• Majority Whip – No. 3 House Republican• Former Republican Study Committee
chair• First elected in 2008• Has some support from conservatives
Mark Meadows (R-NC)• Chair of the House Freedom Caucus• First elected in 2012• Campaigned with Pres. Trump in NC
Frontrunners in the race for speaker of the House
40
Pelosi faces increasing opposition, with over 40 House candidates saying they would not back her for Speaker
• If Democrats win the majority by just 1 vote (218-217), Pelosi would need 109 votes to win her party’s nomination
• In 2016, she won the minority leader position against Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) on a vote of 134-63
Potential problems for Pelosi:
• Unlike party positions such as minority and majority leader, the whole House formally votes for the speaker
• Parties usually vote by secret ballot beforehand to choose their nominee, and then they vote en bloc that candidate
• However, over 40 Democratic House candidates have said they will not support Pelosi for Speaker of the House, which could pose problems if they only win a small majority
2018 Senate candidates with the largest war chests for the midterm elections
Top 10 Senate candidates with the most cash on hand
41
AS OF JUNE 30, 2018
■ Democrat ■ Republican
$15,627,661
$13,961,358
$13,699,130
$12,273,208
$11,094,189
$10,721,977
$10,692,748
$9,879,748
$9,592,965
$9,299,365
ELIZABETH WARREN (D-MA)
BETO O'ROURKE (D-TX)
BILL NELSON (D-FL)
CLAIRE MCCASKILL (D-MO)
SHERROD BROWN (D-OH)
KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-NY)
TIM KAINE (D-VA)*
BOB CASEY, JR. (D-PA)
DEBBIE STABENOW (D-MI)
TED CRUZ (R-TX)
Democrats hold 8 of the 10 most vulnerable Senate seats in the 2018 election cycle
42
NJ Hotline’s 2018 Senate power rankingsSeats most vulnerable to change parties
1. Nevada: Dean Heller (R)Challenger: US Rep. Jacky Rosen (D)
2. Indiana: Joe Donnelly (D)Challengers: Mike Braun (R)
3. Missouri*: Claire McCaskill (D)Challenger: MO Attorney General Josh Hawley (R)
4. North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp (D)Potential challenger: Rep. Kevin Cramer (R)
5. Florida: Bill Nelson (D)Challengers: FL Gov. Rick Scott (R)
6. Arizona*: (Jeff Flake – Retiring) Martha McSally & Kelli Ward (R)Challenger: US Rep. Kristen Sinema (D – frontrunner)
7. West Virginia: Joe Manchin (D)Challenger: WV Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R)
8. Wisconsin*: Tammy Baldwin (D)Challengers: Kevin Nicholson & Leah Vukmir (R)
9. Montana: Jon Tester (D)Challenger: MT state auditor Matt Rosendale (R)
10. Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D)Challenger: US Rep Jim Renacci (R)
■ Seat held by Republican ■ Seat held by Democrat■ Top five states most likely to flip
3
12
6
7
5
4
8
9
10
Of the 26 Democratic senators up for re-election, Trump won 10 of their states – and five by double digits
Senators up for re-election in states won by the opposing party’s 2016 presidential candidate
43
VA
NY
ME
NC
SC
GA
TN
KY
IL
LATX
OK
ID
OR
WA
CA
AZNM
CO
WY
MT20%
SD
IA
UT
AR
MS AL
NE
KS
AK
WI0.7%
OH8.1%
PA0.7%
IN19%
ND36%
WV42%MO
19%
FL1.2%
MI0.3%
MN
NV2.4%
HI
Clinton victory Trump victory ■ Democratic senator up for re‐election ■ Republican senator up for re‐election
Jon Tester (D) won in 2012 by 4%
Claire McCaskill (D) won in 2012 by 16%
Dean Heller (R) won in 2012 by 1.2%
Heidi Heitkamp (D) won in 2012 by 0.9%
Joe Donnelly (D) won in 2012 by 5.7%
Sherrod Brown (D) won in 2012 by 6.0%
Joe Manchin (D) won in 2012 by 14%
Bill Nelson (D) won in 2012 by 13%
Bob Casey, Jr. (D) won in 2012 by 9.1%
PERCENTS INSIDE THE STATE REPRESENT BY HOW MUCH THE OTHER PARTY’S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE WON IN 2016
Debbie Stabenow (D) won in 2012 by 21%Tammy Baldwin (D)
won in 2012 by 5.6%
Three Republican Senate seats are now considered among the 10 most likely to flip in November
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Hotline’s 2018 Senate power rankings1. Nevada:
Incumbent: Dean Heller (R)Challenger: Rep. Jacky Rosen (D)
2. North Dakota : Incumbent: Heidi Heitkamp (D)Challenger: Rep. Kevin Cramer (R)
3. Indiana:Incumbent: Joe Donnelly (D)Challengers: Mike Braun (R)
4. Missouri:Incumbent: Claire McCaskill (D)Challenger: AG Josh Hawley (R)
5. Arizona: Current: Jeff Flake (R), retiring Potential challengers: Rep. Martha McSally (R)
Rep. Krysten Sinema (D)
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■ Seat held by Republican ■ Seat held by Democrat■ Top five states most likely to flip
6. Florida — Bill Nelson (D)7. West Virginia — Joe Manchin (D)8. Montana — Jon Tester (D)9. Tennessee — Bob Corker (R), retiring10. Wisconsin — Tammy Baldwin (D)
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5
In 2018, Republicans must defend 12 governorships without an incumbent running, as opposed to only four for Democrats
2018 gubernatorial races by incumbent and status
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■ Dem. incumbent (5) ■ Dem. open* (4) ■ Ind. incumbent (1) ■ GOP incumbent (13) ■ GOP open* (13) ■ No election (14)
MD
MA
RI
CT
DE
NJ
OH
WVVA
PA
NY
ME
NC
SC
GA
TN
KY
IN
MIWI
MN
IL
LATX
OK
ID
NV
OR
WA
CA
AZNM
CO
WY
MT ND
SD
IA
UT
FL
AR
MO
MS AL
NE
KS
AK
VT
HI
NH
Seats most vulnerable to change parties
1. Illinois: Bruce Rauner (R)• Challenger: JB Pritzker (D)
2. New Mexico: Susana Martinez (R) (retiring)• Challengers: Rep. Steve Pearce (R)
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)
3. Maine: Paul LePage (R) (retiring)• Challengers: Janet Mills (D)
Shawn Moody (R)
4. Alaska: Bill Walker (I)• Challengers: Mike Dunleavy (R)
Mark Begich (D)
5. Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) (retiring)• Challengers: Steve Sisolak (D)
Adam Laxalt (R)
Democrats have a shot at picking up several governorships
■ Democrat incumbent ■ Republican incumbent
Hotline’s power rankings for gubernatorial elections
6. Michigan: Rick Snyder (R) (retiring)7. Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) (retiring)8. Florida: Rick Scott (R) (retiring)9. Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) (retiring)10. Ohio: John Kasich (R) (retiring)
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© Irrigation Association 48