Jim Hosler, OwnerDemographic Decision Dynamics, LLC

www.demographic3d.com jim@demographic3d.com

Vote on what? Cost? Revenue? Operating and maintenance?

If Tampa wants it, let them pass it…incredible disservice to unincorporated Hillsborough County

There is no business plan, voters deserve respect The reputation of the BOCC…it is HC’s institution Elected bodies should only transit technically and

financially sound proposals to the voters… IF we need transit in the future, another failure won’t help Transit is for congestion…what congestion for transit? The underlying demographic data supporting the need for

transit are a SCIENTIFIC FRAUD…outside peer review? Stop Staff From Spending Anymore $$$ on This

NOW!!!

No scientific evidence of a benefit to the economy

Greatest positive impact within .25 miles of station stops

Economic benefits of mass transit always involve a TRANSFER of wealth or jobs within a region

FTA – cost overruns are a “common phenomenon”

Harms the bus component if revenue and ridership drops…most flexible component

All the current evidence in support is anecdotal Boston – cannot support itself with a one

percent sales tax D.C. Metro -- $36 million in Stimulus funds and

$150,000,000 in more Federal funds this year Charlotte – 51% increase in cost of future

expansions…$48 million per mile for first 9 miles, $101 million per mile for expansion

Phoenix – Expansion is on hold due to decline in sales taxes and increase in costs

New Urbanism and/or Neo-Traditional Planning A return to the good ole days when we all road trains to

work and walked to the store? We are all SUPPOSED TO desire Disney’s Celebration Land Planning was invented at the University of Chicago

as a reaction to “Big Business”…evil big business The AICP designation was invented in the 1970’s…a

professional designation to control lives “They know better”…permeates the 1% tax proposal It is like a RELIGION…non-believers simply can’t see the

light…two types of hubris

High Speed Rail half-promise

Judge the likelihood of the follow-on money…2010??

Look at the source…the Fed’s don’t have the money

Another reason to wait on the politics

Article in Forbes… Tampa Bay has the

worst commute in the country

Really…look at the methodology

If the article supports anything, it supports a regional approach

Our 1% Tax is only for Hillsborough…

The Mayor “suggests” how the BOCC can spend it’s tax money…the 25% going to roads

Proposes that the 25% will equal $2.4 Billion over 30 years…don’t worry about the details of the offer

$2.4 Billion is 25% of $9.7 Billion over 30 years Assumes an average annual collection $324

Million At it’s peak in 2006, the CIT was collecting the

1% equivalent of $214 Million Can any of this current bureaucracy be trusted? BOCC is dancing to the tune of the Mayor

Max Weber, 1921, “Once a bureaucracy is fully established, it is the hardest to change”

Coupled with ideology and a compliant press, bureaucracy steamrolls common sense

Those bureaucracies with the most to gain – MPO and HART – are using tax dollars to promote the tax by “educating the public”

Scientific fraud, yes fraud The BOCC is feeling the weight of this

inertia…where are their spines?

1) Bureaucratic Inertia…Staff are still spending Millions and will not stop unless the BOCC votes no on the ballot initiative

2) The Sales Tax is regressive and unstable3) The underlying demographic projections

are, scientifically fraudulent4) Too many unknowns…no methodology, just

politics and the City of Tampa, selected Transit Routes One and Two

5) Local governance issues – TBARTA, Eminent Domain and City of Tampa interference

December 2006 (HC)

• 570,121 jobs• 18,808 unemp.• 3.2% unemp. rateNovember 2009

(HC)• 530,839 jobs• 70,143 unemp.• 12.1% unemp. rate

And, transit will not create permanent, private jobs

Nearly half of local homeowners are upside-down in mortgages

Tampa Bay record # of bankruptcies 2009 – 28,504

Raising local taxes will add to the uncertainty coming from Washington and Tallahassee

Value-Added-Tax coming from the Feds? Health care and carbon tax increases? Why put ourselves at a local disadvantage

for planning theory? Florida – lost a net of 31,179 residents

due to net out-migration 08-09…1st to 45th in migration since 2000

Unstable 1st: 75 Recession & 81 Recession in Fla.?

Unitary Tax and the Sales Tax on Services proposed in the early 1980’s

In FY2006, we collected $107,000,000 in CIT, and in FY2009 we collected $89,000,000

6% annual increases prior to 2006 have turned into 10% annual declines…

Debt Service? $29 Million in 08/09 – 1/3 of the Collection – they will want to bond this 1%

At what cost?

Does thislook stable?

What is the trend-line?

Is thisbondable,and at whatcost?

Demographic Decision Dynamics, LLCwww.demographic3d.com jim@demographic3d.com Source: Hillsborough County Finance

Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, 11/09 Florida: Second most REGRESSIVE TAX

SYSTEM – Fla. poor pay a much larger share of income to taxes

Sales Tax already consumes 9.4% of income for LT $17,000 in Fla.…almost 14% with property taxes

How would you like to pay 10% of your income in Sales Tax?

The new one cent will make Hillsborough County the most regressive county in the second most regressive state!!

And, for what? Planning theory??

Admittedly created to be “transit friendly” Hillsborough has had net out-migration for at

least two years…need to wait on the 2010 Census benchmark

2000-2009: 18.4% of growth in City of Tampa 2006-2025: 38.6% of growth in the City of

Tampa, according to new fraudulent projections What incentives would be needed to make

this shift happen? Cash and the City’s Land Development Code for a future Mayor

NW Hills. & Greater Brandon built-out??

Tampa’s Core: South of Hillsborough and North of SR60 (including downtown and Harbor Island) in City limits

Net of 91,000 residents added (06-25) – over 38,000 new homes –”taken from” Unincorporated HC

Net of 100,000 new jobs added to Tampa’s Core Inconsistent with the rest of all the comp. plans &

elements – water, wastewater, schools, parks, etc. Would existing Tampa Core residents want the

growth if they knew about it? Are the Unincorporated County’s water &

wastewater bonds or future bonding capacity in jeopardy?

Routes seem to change every month No business plan…why should the public loan

money when a bank would not? Why were transit routes 1 and 2 selected?

Politics… Does the State have the 25% match? What if we pass the 1% tax, and the Feds or State

don’t contribute? HART grant application with FTA is apparently

only for transit routes 1 and 2 What about the other routes…Another

penny(s)?? Bait and Switch??

BAITAND SWITCH?

HOW MANYMORE 1%SALES TAXESNEEDED FORTHE ENTIRESYSTEM?

Why isn’t TBARTA in the lead? Why not share the risk? Does our MPO and HART have the organizational

capacity? A citizens committee as oversight – – it will still be getting

its data from the MPO and HART, trust us?? Which agency is going to conduct the many years-worth

of eminent domain actions? Rail transit needs replacement like roads…how will it be

funded? Substitute for the user’s fee of the gas tax? Odds and ends…• Tampa-Centrist proposal…Urban Service Area

FOREVER??• USF employment HUB…more grant $$ don’t = jobs• Cars are not going away…serious emergency evacuation

issues

Jim HoslerDemographic Decision Dynamics, LLC

www.demographic3d.comjim@demographic3d.com