Journal of

Geography and

Regional Planning

Volume 5 Number 7 4 April, 2012

ISSN 2070-1845

ABOUT JGRP The Journal of Geography and Regional Planning (JGRP) is published twice a month (one volume per year) by Academic Journals. The Journal of Geography and Regional Planning (JGRP) is an open access journal that publishes high-quality solicited and unsolicited articles, in all areas of Journal of Geography and Regional Planning such as Geomorphology, relationship between types of settlement and economic growth, Global Positioning System etc. All articles published in JGRP are peer-reviewed.

Submission of Manuscript Submit manuscripts as e-mail attachment to the Editorial Office at: JGRP@academicjournals.org, JGRP.journal@gmail.com. A manuscript number will be mailed to the corresponding author shortly after submission. For all other correspondence that cannot be sent by e-mail, please contact the editorial office (at jgrp@academicjournals.org, jgrp.journal@gmail.com). The Journal of Geography and Regional Planning will only accept manuscripts submitted as e-mail attachments. Please read the Instructions for Authors before submitting your manuscript. The manuscript files should be given the last name of the first author.

Editors

Prof. Prakash Chandra Tiwari, Department of Geography, Kumaon University, Naini Tal, Uttarakhand, India.

Prof. Ferreira, João J University of Beira Interior - Portugal. Estrada do Sineiro – polo IV Portugal. Dr. Martin Balej, Ph.D Vice-Dean of Development and IT, Faculty of Science, J.E. Purkyne University, Ustinad, Labem Prof. Muhammad Abdul Rauf Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts, Ain Shams, University, Cairo, Egypt. Dr. Gunther Tress Dept. of Geography and, Environment, University of Aberdeen, Elphinstone Road, Aberdeen AB24 3UF, United Kingdom. Dr. S. K. Florentine Centre for Environmental, Management, School of Science and Engineering, University of Ballarat, P.O. Box 663, VIC 3350, Australia.

Richard Ingwe Centre for Research & Action on, Developing Locales, regions and, Environment (CRADLE), 14a/b Musaha str. Calabar, Cross River State. Nigeria. Dr. Eze B. Eze Reader/Associate Professor, Department of Geography and, Regional Planning, University of Calabar, Calabar, Nigeria. Dr. Eugene J. Aniah Reader/Associate Professor, Department of Geography and, Regional Planning, University of Calabar, Calabar, Nigeria. Dr. Christoph Aubrecht AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Foresight & Policy Development Department, Vienna, Austria. Prof. Helai Huang Director-in-Chief of Urban Transport Research Center, School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University. No. 22 Shao-Shan-Nan Road, Changsha, Hunan 410075 China.

Editorial Board

Dr. Mohammad Al-Hwaiti Department of Anthropology, Dr. H.S. Gour University, Sagar (MP) India Dulce Buchala Bicca Rodrigues Engineering of Sao Carlos School/ University of Sao Paulo Brazil Shaofeng YUAN Department of land resources management,Zhejiang Gongshang University China Cosmina-Simona Toader Faculty of Farm Management Banat's University of Agricultural Sciencesand Veterinary Medicine Timisoara, Romania Dr. K. Senthil Kumar Tanzania Meteorological Agency Tanzania PANAGIOTIS ZERVOPOULOS Department of Economic and Regional Development, Panteion University of Athens Greece

Associate Prof. Dr. Shan-Zhong Qi College of Population, Resources & Environment, Shandong Normal University No.88, Wenhua East Road, Jinan, 250014, China Salman Qureshi Department of Geography & Geology, University of Salzburg Hellbrunnerstrasse 34, Salzburg 5020, Austria Alexander K Sayok, Phd Associate Professor in Environmental Science and Ecology Iran Dr Emenike Gladys, university of portharcourt, department of geography and regional planning Nigeria Dr. Soumya Chatterjey Islamic Azad University- Shabestar Branch, Shabestar, East Azerbaijan Province, Iran, José Carlos de Carvalho Filho LL.M in International Law Brazil

Electronic submission of manuscripts is strongly encouraged, provided that the text, tables, and figures are included in a single Microsoft Word file (preferably in Arial font). The cover letter should include the corresponding author's full address and telephone/fax numbers and should be in an e-mail message sent to the Editor, with the file, whose name should begin with the first author's surname, as an attachment. Article Types Three types of manuscripts may be submitted: Regular articles: These should describe new and carefully confirmed findings, and experimental procedures should be given in sufficient detail for others to verify the work. The length of a full paper should be the minimum required to describe and interpret the work clearly. Short Communications: A Short Communication is suitable for recording the results of complete small investigations or giving details of new models or hypotheses, innovative methods, techniques or apparatus. The style of main sections need not conform to that of full-length papers. Short communications are 2 to 4 printed pages (about 6 to 12 manuscript pages) in length. Reviews: Submissions of reviews and perspectives covering topics of current interest are welcome and encouraged. Reviews should be concise and no longer than 4-6 printed pages (about 12 to 18 manuscript pages). Reviews are also peer-reviewed. Review Process All manuscripts are reviewed by an editor and members of the Editorial Board or qualified outside reviewers. Authors cannot nominate reviewers. Only reviewers randomly selected from our database with specialization in the subject area will be contacted to evaluate the manuscripts. The process will be blind review. Decisions will be made as rapidly as possible, and the journal strives to return reviewers’ comments to authors as fast as possible. The editorial board will re-review manuscripts that are accepted pending revision. It is the goal of the JGRP to publish manuscripts within weeks after submission.

Regular articles All portions of the manuscript must be typed double-spaced and all pages numbered starting from the title page. The Title should be a brief phrase describing the contents of the paper. The Title Page should include the authors' full names and affiliations, the name of the corresponding author along with phone, fax and E-mail information. Present addresses of authors should appear as a footnote. The Abstract should be informative and completely self-explanatory, briefly present the topic, state the scope of the experiments, indicate significant data, and point out major findings and conclusions. The Abstract should be 100 to 200 words in length.. Complete sentences, active verbs, and the third person should be used, and the abstract should be written in the past tense. Standard nomenclature should be used and abbreviations should be avoided. No literature should be cited. Following the abstract, about 3 to 10 key words that will provide indexing references should be listed. A list of non-standard Abbreviations should be added. In general, non-standard abbreviations should be used only when the full term is very long and used often. Each abbreviation should be spelled out and introduced in parentheses the first time it is used in the text. Only recommended SI units should be used. Authors should use the solidus presentation (mg/ml). Standard abbreviations (such as ATP and DNA) need not be defined. The Introduction should provide a clear statement of the problem, the relevant literature on the subject, and the proposed approach or solution. It should be understandable to colleagues from a broad range of scientific disciplines. Materials and methods should be complete enough to allow experiments to be reproduced. However, only truly new procedures should be described in detail; previously published procedures should be cited, and important modifications of published procedures should be mentioned briefly. Capitalize trade names and include the manufacturer's name and address. Subheadings should be used. Methods in general use need not be described in detail.

Instructions for Author

Results should be presented with clarity and precision. The results should be written in the past tense when describing findings in the authors' experiments. Previously published findings should be written in the present tense. Results should be explained, but largely without referring to the literature. Discussion, speculation and detailed interpretation of data should not be included in the Results but should be put into the Discussion section. The Discussion should interpret the findings in view of the results obtained in this and in past studies on this topic. State the conclusions in a few sentences at the end of the paper. The Results and Discussion sections can include subheadings, and when appropriate, both sections can be combined. The Acknowledgments of people, grants, funds, etc should be brief. Tables should be kept to a minimum and be designed to be as simple as possible. Tables are to be typed double-spaced throughout, including headings and footnotes. Each table should be on a separate page, numbered consecutively in Arabic numerals and supplied with a heading and a legend. Tables should be self-explanatory without reference to the text. The details of the methods used in the experiments should preferably be described in the legend instead of in the text. The same data should not be presented in both table and graph form or repeated in the text. Figure legends should be typed in numerical order on a separate sheet. Graphics should be prepared using applications capable of generating high resolution GIF, TIFF, JPEG or Powerpoint before pasting in the Microsoft Word manuscript file. Tables should be prepared in Microsoft Word. Use Arabic numerals to designate figures and upper case letters for their parts (Figure 1). Begin each legend with a title and include sufficient description so that the figure is understandable without reading the text of the manuscript. Information given in legends should not be repeated in the text. References: In the text, a reference identified by means of an author‘s name should be followed by the date of the reference in parentheses. When there are more than two authors, only the first author‘s name should be mentioned, followed by ’et al‘. In the event that an author cited has had two or more works published during the same year, the reference, both in the text and in the reference list, should be identified by a lower case letter like ’a‘ and ’b‘ after the date to distinguish the works.

Examples:

Abayomi (2000), Agindotan et al. (2003), (Kelebeni, 1983), (Usman and Smith, 1992), (Chege, 1998;

1987a,b; Tijani, 1993,1995), (Kumasi et al., 2001) References should be listed at the end of the paper in alphabetical order. Articles in preparation or articles submitted for publication, unpublished observations, personal communications, etc. should not be included in the reference list but should only be mentioned in the article text (e.g., A. Kingori, University of Nairobi, Kenya, personal communication). Journal names are abbreviated according to Chemical Abstracts. Authors are fully responsible for the accuracy of the references. Examples: Chikere CB, Omoni VT and Chikere BO (2008). Distribution of potential nosocomial pathogens in a hospital environment. Afr. J. Biotechnol. 7: 3535-3539. Moran GJ, Amii RN, Abrahamian FM, Talan DA (2005). Methicillinresistant Staphylococcus aureus in community-acquired skin infections. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 11: 928-930. Pitout JDD, Church DL, Gregson DB, Chow BL, McCracken M, Mulvey M, Laupland KB (2007). Molecular epidemiology of CTXM-producing Escherichia coli in the Calgary Health Region: emergence of CTX-M-15-producing isolates. Antimicrob. Agents Chemother. 51: 1281-1286. Pelczar JR, Harley JP, Klein DA (1993). Microbiology: Concepts and Applications. McGraw-Hill Inc., New York, pp. 591-603.

Short Communications Short Communications are limited to a maximum of two figures and one table. They should present a complete study that is more limited in scope than is found in full-length papers. The items of manuscript preparation listed above apply to Short Communications with the following differences: (1) Abstracts are limited to 100 words; (2) instead of a separate Materials and Methods section, experimental procedures may be incorporated into Figure Legends and Table footnotes; (3) Results and Discussion should be combined into a single section. Proofs and Reprints: Electronic proofs will be sent (e-mail attachment) to the corresponding author as a PDF file. Page proofs are considered to be the final version of the manuscript. With the exception of typographical or minor clerical errors, no changes will be made in the manuscript at the proof stage.

Fees and Charges: Authors are required to pay a $550 handling fee. Publication of an article in the Journal of Geography and Regional Planning is not contingent upon the author's ability to pay the charges. Neither is acceptance to pay the handling fee a guarantee that the paper will be accepted for publication. Authors may still request (in advance) that the editorial office waive some of the handling fee under special circumstances. Copyright: © 2012, Academic Journals. All rights Reserved. In accessing this journal, you agree that you will access the contents for your own personal use but not for any commercial use. Any use and or copies of this Journal in whole or in part must include the customary bibliographic citation, including author attribution, date and article title. Submission of a manuscript implies: that the work described has not been published before (except in the form of an abstract or as part of a published lecture, or thesis) that it is not under consideration for publication elsewhere; that if and when the manuscript is accepted for publication, the authors agree to automatic transfer of the copyright to the publisher. Disclaimer of Warranties In no event shall Academic Journals be liable for any special, incidental, indirect, or consequential damages of any kind arising out of or in connection with the use of the articles or other material derived from the JGRP, whether or not advised of the possibility of damage, and on any theory of liability. This publication is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, including, but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or non-infringement. Descriptions of, or references to, products or publications does not imply endorsement of that product or publication. While every effort is made by Academic Journals to see that no inaccurate or misleading data, opinion or statements appear in this publication, they wish to make it clear that the data and opinions appearing in the articles and advertisements herein are the responsibility of the contributor or advertiser concerned. Academic Journals makes no warranty of any kind, either express or implied, regarding the quality, accuracy, availability, or validity of the data or information in this publication or of any other publication to which it may be linked.

International Journal of Medicine and Medical Sciences

Journal of Geography and Regional Planning Geography and Regional Planning

Table of Contents: Volume 5 Number 7 4 April, 2012

ences ARTICLES

The changing rainfall pattern and the associated impacts on subsistence agriculture in Laikipia East District, Kenya 198 Julius M. Huho, Josephine K. W. Ngaira, Harun O. Ogindo and Nelly Masayi Influencing factors of community participation in tourism development: A case study of Xingwen world Geopark 207 SHUI Wei, XU Xueyi, WEI Yali and WANG Xinggui

Journal of Geography and Regional Planning Vol. 5(7), pp. 198-206, 4 April, 2012 Available online at http://www.academicjournals.org/JGRP DOI: 10.5897/JGRP12.018 ISSN 2070-1845 ©2012 Academic Journals

Full Length Research Paper

The changing rainfall pattern and the associated impacts on subsistence agriculture in Laikipia East

District, Kenya

Julius M. Huho1*, Josephine K. W. Ngaira1, Harun O. Ogindo2 and Nelly Masayi1

1Department of Geography, Maseno University, Kenya.

2Department of Botany and Horticulture, Maseno University, Kenya P.O. Box 333 Maseno, Kenya.

Accepted 13 March, 2012

Farmers in Laikipia East District of Kenya rely on subsistence agriculture as their livelihood source which in turn depends on the amount and distribution of rainfall. The main growing season occur during the peak rainfall season, that is, between March and May while the secondary growing season occurs between October and December. Annual rainfall trend between 1976 and 2005 showed that rainfall in Laikipia East District increased a condition suitable for the good subsistence agricultural performance. On contrary, subsistence agriculture in the district performed dismally. This was caused by changing rainfall patterns. The annual numbers of rain days declined but the intensity of rain increased. During the main growing season, the number of rain days declined in March and May but remained constant in April. Rainfall intensities declined in March but increased in April and May. The effect of the changing pattern in rainfall on subsistence agriculture was evidenced by decreased growing period and ineffective rainfall with overall negative effects on yields. This paper examines the changing pattern of rainfall and the associated impact on subsistence agriculture in Laikipia East District, Kenya. Key words: Climate change, rainfall patterns, growing seasons, subsistence agriculture.

INTRODUCTION One of the consequences of climate change is the alteration of rainfall patterns. The current study examined the changing rainfall pattern the changing rainfall pattern during the main growing season (March, April and May) and the associated effects on subsistence agriculture in Laikipia east District of Kenya. Due to global warming precipitation amount, type and timing are changing or are expected to change because of increased evaporation, especially in the tropics (Ritter, 2006). Although studies have shown a 2% overall increase in global land precipitation (IPCC, 2001), rainfall characteristics have shown considerable variations from region to region with some areas experiencing decline and in others increase in precipitation due to increased extreme weather patterns. Decrease in precipitation has been *Corresponding author. E-mail: jhuho2003@yahoo.com.

experienced in the Sahel, Mediterranean, southern African and parts of southern Asia where much of the rains fall as intense storms particularly in the dry areas (Ritter, 2006). A study by Xuebin Zhang and Francis Zwiers, of environment Canada in Toronto revealed that rainfall in Mexico and northern Africa decreased by nearly 70 mm per year in recent years compared to the 1925 rainfall as quoted in Boswell (2007). Wright and Jones (2003) note that rainfall in southwest Australia has declined by 15 to 20% from the late 1960s. On the other hand, significant increase in rainfall of 2.4% per decade was witnessed over the tropical lands during the 20

th

Century (IPCC, 2001). Similarly, rainfall has increased by up to 50% in parts of northern Europe (Ritter, 2006). Compared to the 1925 rainfall, Canada, Russia and Europe’s annual rainfall has increased by 45 mm and in Peru and Madagascar, rainfall has increased by 60 mm annually (Boswel, 2007).

The seasonality, amount, distribution and the timing of

the rainfall is of particular importance to the population that depends on rain-fed agriculture for their subsistence. But due climate change, the reliability of the rain for agricultural purposes has reduced in the recent years. For instance, despite the Indonesian annual rainfall decreasing by 2 to 3%, marked changes in precipitation patterns have been observed. Case et al. (2008) observes that the wet and dry seasons have changed with an increase in wet season rainfall in the southern region and a decreased dry season rainfall in the northern region of Indonesia. In Iberian Peninsula, Spain, the number of rain days increased over the 20th Century except in the Gulf of Cádiz and in western Portugal. The amount and intensity of rainfall declined in the Peninsula except for the two regions where the intensity increased (PhysOrg.com, 2011). IPCC (2001) indicates that in some parts of the equatorial East Africa December, January and February (DJF) rainfall may increase by 5 to 20% while June, July and August (JJA) rainfall may decrease by 5 to 10% under the lowest warming scenario. Climate change predictions indicates that North Africa will experience a significant decline in rainfall of 10 to 20% between March and November while South Africa rainfall will decrease by 5 to 15% between November and May by 2050.

Agricultural activities follow rainfall patterns especially in tropical regions. In Sub-Saharan Africa rain-fed agriculture, which provides food for the populace and represent a major share of the countries’ economy follow precipitation pattern closely (United Nations Environmental Programme, 2008). Therefore, short-term as well as long-term variations in rainfall patterns have important effects on crop and livestock farming (IPCC, 2007). Seasonal rainfall has been marked by delayed onsets, declining number of rain days and increased intensities altering farming calendars with negative effects on the yields. Awuor and Ogola (1997) observed that global warming will likely affect the agricultural productivity due to changes in the length of growing periods. They observed that the length of growing period would increase by about 10 days/°C increase in mean annual temperature in Canadian Praire. In Kenya, they noted that increase in temperature by 4°C will result in a dramatic shortening of the length of the growing period. In Myanmar, Phyu (2010) notes that the monsoon period reduced by about 10 days in 2009 from an average of 144 days. The main growing rainfall seasons which occur in March, April and May (MAM) and December, January and February (DJF) have been declining since the 1980s in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe (UCSB, 2008). UCSB attributes the declining rainfall to anomalies in moisture transport between the ocean and land due to rising sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean.

According to IPCC (2007), changes in rainfall patterns have negatively affected mixed rain-fed and highland perennial systems in the Great Lakes region and in other

Huho et al. 199 parts of East Africa. Agriculture has progressively become more marginal in the arid and semi arid areas. A significant decrease in suitable rain-fed agricultural land and production potential for cereals has been predicted under climate change by 2080. For instance, under increased El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), South Africa would experience significant reductions in maize production. On the other hand, a combination of increased temperature and rainfall may result in longer growing seasons in some parts of the Ethiopian highlands and southern Africa such as Mozambique improving agricultural performance. Based on these observations, it therefore follows that rainfall patterns have been changing as climate changes and so has rain-fed agriculture. Thus, for agricultural purposes changes in growing period are very important and must be viewed against possible changes in seasonality of rainfall, onset of rain days and intensity of rainfall. The current study examined the changing rainfall pattern during the long rainfall season (March, April and May (MAM)) which is the main growing rainfall season in Laikipia east District of Kenya since farmers largely depend on this season for subsistence food production. Rainfall during the short rains, which occur in October November and December (OND) is unreliable and inadequate particularly for maize growing, which forms the staple food for the inhabitants.

Objective of the study The study had two objectives: 1) To analyze rainfall patterns during the long rainfall season which is the main crop growing season? 2) To examine the effects of changing rainfall patterns on subsistence agriculture.

METHODOLOGY

The study focused on the changing rainfall patterns and the subsequent effects on subsistence agriculture. Data for the study was collected in Daiga Division of Laikipia East District which is located in the central parts of Kenya. The district, which lies between longitudes 36°54'' and 37°23'' East and latitudes 0°02'' and 0°27'' North, was curved out from the former Laikipia District in 2009. Daiga Division has an area of 828.8 km

2 with a population

density of 40 persons/ km2. The division is subdivided into Umande,

Ethi and Naibor Locations. Rain-fed mixed farming is practiced in Umande and Ethi Locations while pastoralism dominates Naibor Location. Figure 1 shows the location and size of Laikipia East District in relation to the former Laikipia District.

Laikipia East District falls under the semi arid climate with a mean annual rainfall of 637 mm and temperature ranging from 20 to 28°C. Rainfall in the district follows the seasonal movement of the inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). This results in two rainfall

season, ''the long rains'' which falls between March and May (MAM) and the ''short rains'' which falls between October and December (OND). However, a third rainfall season known as the continental rains is experienced between July and August. The continental

200 J. Geogr. Reg. Plann.

Ethi

Location

Laikipia East District

Naibor

Location

Former Laikipia District

Umande

Location

Study area

Former district boundary

New district boundary

Location boundary

Key

Laikipia Airbase

Met station

Figure 1. Location of the study area.

rains are caused by the Congo Airstream (Jaetzold and Schimidt,

1983). Farming practices in the district are strongly dependent on rainfall and therefore follow rainfall patterns. MAM is the main growing season while OND is the secondary growing season. The study focused on the MAM rainfall season since it determines the food security situations in the division. Rainfall reliability during this season is 60% (Jaetzold and Schimidt, 1983) and accounts for over 80% of food production in the division. Subsistence rain-fed mixed farming is the main source of livelihood in the district. The dominant

crops grown are maize and beans and are planted by all farmers. Others crops include: potatoes which is planted by 82.3% of the farmers, peas (64%), cabbages (50%), kales (50%) and sweet potatoes (37.4%). In addition to crop growing farmers reared cattle, sheep, goats and chicken. Land holdings are small with 83.8% of the farmers owning 2 Ha and below while 16.2% of the farmers owned land holdings of more than 2 Ha.

Mixed farmers from 328 out of 7261 households in Umande and

Ethi Locatios of Daiga Division were interviewed. The choice of the two locations was because of dominance of rain-fed mixed farming. Crop yield data, maize and bean yields for a period of 16 years (1986 to 2001), was obtained from Centre for Training and Integrated Research in Arid and Semi-arid Land (CETRAD) offices in Nanyuki, Kenya. The choice of maize and beans was because the two are staple food for the communities living in the study area and are the main crops planted during the MAM season. Rainfall data was obtained from Laikipia Airbase meteorological station,

which is situated in Daiga Division, and was used in analyzing rainfall characteristics. To analyze rainfall characteristics, the study examined a 30 year period (1976 to 2005). This period was divided into 3 decades; the 1976 to 1985, 1986 to 1995 and 1996 to 2005 decades. Comparisons of rainfall characteristics were based on the three time periods. Decadal average number of rain days and rainfall intensities were obtained as follows:

n

xx

Where: x = number of rain days during MAM season in a given

decade n = number of years in a decade

z

yx

Where: y = amount of rainfall during MAM season in a given decade z = number of rain days during MAM season in a given

decade. A rainy day in this study is defined as a day when total rainfall

amount was at least 0.85 mm and above.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The changing rainfall patterns For agricultural purposes, the study analyzed rainfall patterns during the MAM season since subsistence farmers in Daiga Division of Laikipia East District largely depended on these rains. The MAM seasonal rainfall showed an increasing trend but with marked year to year variations during (Figure 2). Decadal analysis of rainfall trends revealed that the mean MAM seasonal rainfall rose from 214.1 mm during the 1976 to 1985 decade to 224.4 mm during the 1986 to 1995 decade and subsequently to 232.1 mm during the 1996 to 2005 decade.

The study established that contrary to the increasing annual rainfall trend, the number of rainy days was declining (Figure 3), an observation that was confirmed by 82% of the respondents. Analysis of daily rainfall data revealed that the number of rain days declined from an

Huho et al. 201

MAM rainfall trend (1976-2005)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Year

Ra

infa

ll (

mm

)MAM seasonal rainfall MAM seasonal rainfall trend

Figure 2. MAM seasonal rainfall trend (1976 to 2005).

Number of rain days during MAM season

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Year

Ra

in d

ays

MAM rain days MAM rain days trend

Figure 3. Trend in number of rain days during the MAM rainfall season.

202 J. Geogr. Reg. Plann.

March, April and May rainfall trends (1976-2005)

0

50

100

150

200

2501976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Years

Rain

fall (

mm

)

March rainfall April rainfall May rainfall

March rainfall trend

May rainfall trend

April rainfall trend

Figure 4. Monthly rainfall trends during the MAM rainfall season (1976 to 2005).

average of 29 rain days during the 1976 to 1985 decade to an average of 26 rain days during the 1996 to 2005 decade. The least number of rain days was recorded during the 1986 to 1995 decade when the district recorded an average of 25 rain days. The coefficient of variation (Cv) indicated that the number of rain days was less variable during the 1976 to 1985 decade compared to the 1986 to 1995 and 1996 to 2005 decades. The Cvs for the number of rain days were 24.4, 27.9 and 29.6% for 1976 to 1985, 1986 to 1995 and 1996 to 2005 decades respectively. Therefore, the increasing rainfall trend was attributed to increase in high intensity rainfall rather than the number of rain days. Decadal rainfall intensity increased from an average of 7.0 mm during the 1976 to 1985 decade to 8.9 mm during the 1996 to 2005 decade. The findings concur with the IPCC (2007) observation that under the climate change more extreme weather events such as severe storms will be experienced.

Month to month rainfall analysis during the MAM season revealed that rainfall amount declined in March but increased in April and May (Figure 4). During the month of March (the start of the MAM rainfall season) the average number of rain days decreased from an average of 6.1 to 5.8 days between 1976 and 1985 and 1996 and

2005 decades. Rainfall intensity decreased to 6.5 mm during the 1986 to 1995 decade from 7.4 mm during the 1976 to 1985 decade. During the 1996 to 2005 decade, rainfall intensity rose back to 7.4 mm. Overall, the month of March showed no increase in rainfall intensity. Coupled with declining number of rain days, the study established a shift in the onset of the MAM rainfall season, an observation ascertained by 76% of the respondents. Using the definition of the start of rain as the first occasion after the 1

st of March with 20 mm or

more in 1 or 2 consecutive days (Huho, 2011), the study established delayed onsets of the start of rains in the study area. Figure 5 shows the years when rainfall started in March and the trend for the start of rain date.

During the month of April, the number of rain days decreased from an average of 12.2 to 11.7 days between 1976 to 1985 and 1996 to 2005 decades while rainfall intensity increased from 7.7 to 10.2 mm during the same period. Coefficient of rainfall variation (Cv) shows that the April rainfall was getting less variable. The Cv decreased from 52.3% during the 1976 to 1985 decade to 46.3% during the 1986 to 1995 decade. During the same period, the month of May experienced a decrease in the number of rain days from an average of 11.7 to 10.7 days and an increase in rainfall intensity from 5.9 to 8.4 mm. The Cv

Huho et al. 203

Date for the start of rain

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

1977 1978 1981 1989 1995 2001 2002 2004

Year

Date

(D

ay o

f th

e y

ear)

Start of rain date Start of rain trend

Figure 5. The trend for start of rain date during the month of March (1976 to 2005).

for the May rainfall increased from 39.5% during the 1976 to 1985 decade to 64.2% during the 1986 to 1995 decade. This was an indication that the May rainfall is increasingly becoming erratic and unreliable. The study established that despite the increasing rainfall amounts during the MAM season in Daiga Division of Laikipia East District, the season was getting shorter as climate changes. The conclusion was ascertained by 68% of the respondents who acknowledged that the climate in the division had changed and 70% of the respondents who stated that the length of the MAM growing season had shortened due to inadequate or delayed rainfall onset and early cessation of the rains. Effects of changing rainfall patterns on subsistence agriculture Subsistence agriculture in the study area depends entirely on rainfall performance. Although there are other factors such as high costs of production, poor market prices, reduced farm land sizes due to population pressure, which contributed to the decrease in agricultural productivity, changes in rainfall patterns plays the key role since agriculture in the division is purely

rainfed. Changes in rainfall patterns alter farming activities with overall negative effects on the final yields. The study established the following effects. Shortened growing period Decline in the number of rain days during the MAM season was an indication that the length of the main growing season was shortening. About 80% of the respondents stated that the growing season had shrunk by about three weeks. They stated that the March rainfall amounts had declined and become more unreliable while May rains ended earlier than usual. The delayed onset of rains in March forced some farmers to shift their planting dates to mid March and early April (Huho, 2011). Shorter growing periods in the study area led to changes in crop varieties from crops that had longer maturity periods to those with shorter periods. Citing maize crop as an example, farmers stated that they had replaced hybrid maize of series H511 and 614 which took longer durations (180 to 210 days) to mature with varieties such as Dekalb 8031, 8053; Pioneer 30G19, 30V53, 30G97, 3253; Duma 41, 43, 53; Katumani Composite B; and Western Seed Company 402 and 503 which took shorter

204 J. Geogr. Reg. Plann.

Maize and bean yield trends

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001

Year

Maiz

e Y

ield

s (

t/H

a)

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

Bean

Yie

lds (

t/H

a)

Bean yields Maize yields Bean yield trend Linear (Maize yields)

Figure 6. Annual maize and bean yield trends in Daiga Division of Laikipia East District Source: CETRAD, 2002.

growing periods of between 120 and 150 days. However, farmers argued that H511 and H614 varieties yielded more, had weightier grains, and were tastier compared to the new varieties. Thus farmers continued planting these varieties though in less quantities. Poor yields due to high but ineffective rainfall

The MAM season seemed to have an overall increase in the rainfall (Figure 1), a condition suitable for rain-fed subsistence agriculture. However, the study established that agricultural output had been declining (Figure 6). Asked why they hardly harvested enough yields for subsistence, 60% of the respondents stated that rainfall was poorly distributed during the growing period and that it occurred in form of storm which caused floods that inundated crops and destroyed crop leaves especially if the rains had hailstones. Mwangi, a crop farmer in the study area reported the following:

“…nowadays rain falls in just a few days unlike in the 1970s and in the early 1980s. However, the rains we receive now are very heavy which sometimes inundate the planted fields, washes away the top soil and

sometimes destroy farm houses. Most of our lands are infertile because of repeated soil erosion…”

Increasing rainfall variability during the growing season led to droughts during the growing period. About 67% of the respondents stated that early season droughts were common especially when planting was done in early March due to increase in ''false rains''. They argued that the rainfall that fell at the beginning of March were usually heavy giving a false impression of reliable start of the long rains prompting some farmers to begin planting. However the early March rains had become increasing short-lived and were immediately followed by dry spells that sometimes extended up to two weeks causing poor germination of seeds. To cope with the uncertainty of the early March rains, farmers started planting with the rains that fell from mid March. Only a small number of the respondents (20%) stated that they were affected by mid-season droughts. The study attributed the occurrence of fewer mid-season droughts to the decreasing variability in April rainfall from 52.3% during the 1976 to 1985 decade to 46.3% during the 1996 to 2005 decade. About 84% of the respondents were pessimistic about obtaining good harvests due to late-season droughts, which had increased in the recent years.

Huho et al. 205

Plate 1. Drying maize crops due to late-season drought.

The respondents’ assertion was confirmed by the analyzed May rainfall data which shows that rainfall variability during the month of May rose to 64.2% from 39.5% during the 1996 to 2005 and 1976 to 1985 decades respectively. Plate 1 shows the drying maize crops at the beginning of the late season drought in the study area. Karuthi, a farmer in the district stated as follows: “…having green fields and healthy crops in this district is not a guarantee that there will be a bumper harvest. Many are the years that we’ve ended up begging for food due to the late-season droughts… Now we are unceasingly becoming a food insufficient society…” Analysis of rainfall data revealed that the number of rain days in May had been decreasing causing early cessation of the MAM seasonal rainfall. This observation was consistent with respondents’ assertion that late-season droughts were on the increase. The increasing variation in May rainfall (Cv for May) indicated that the rains were becoming more unreliable. In addition, increasing rainfall intensity during this month led to poor crop yields due to destruction of crop leaves and flowers, if rainfall had hailstones, and fell during the flowering and grain filling stages. The observed decline in crop yields confirms the IPCC (2007) assertion that in some African countries climate change will exacerbate the deficiencies

in rain-fed agricultural yield by up to 50% during the 2000 to 2020 period.

Low soil fertility was mentioned by 74% of the respondents as a factor that had led to decline in yields. Soil erosion was ranked as the second major cause of declining soil fertility after over cultivation by 60% of the respondents in the study area. Due to the semi arid nature of the district, frequent occurrence of droughts hardens the top soil reducing its ability to absorb rain water when rainfall eventually comes. With hardened top soil, increased rainfall intensities served to increase surface runoff and in turn increased rate of soil erosion. This was evidenced by rills and small gullies on the farmlands and regular silting of the dams and water pans in the study area. According to IPCC (2007) climate change leads to greater soil erosion due to increased rainfall intensity. Irregular planting dates Increasing rainfall variability particularly in March made it difficult for farmers to plan for agricultural activities. 84% of the respondents stated that planting dates have increasingly become irregular with planting duration spanning from March to May (Figure 7). Wairimu, a crop farmer in Daiga Division, explained the shifting planting dates as follows:

206 J. Geogr. Reg. Plann.

Figure 7. Irregular farming calendar in Daiga Division. L1 = Land preparation for first cropping cycle; L2 = Land

preparation for second (replanted) cropping cycle; P1 = Planting for first cropping cycle; P2 = Planting for second (replanted) cropping cycle; W1 = Weeding for first cropping cycle; W2 = Weeding for second (replanted) cropping cycle; H1 = Harvesting for first cropping cycle; H2 = Harvesting for second (replanted) cropping cycle; and N-A = No Activity.

“…we used to plant from late February (dry planting) to mid March (wet planting). By mid March, all planting was complete in the 1970s. Today planting begin from mid March through April. It is not uncommon to see people planting in May depending on the reliability of the rains. We cannot talk of a specific planting period nowadays since farmers plant at different times…”

The study established that delays in planting affected all other farming practices such as weeding, spraying and harvesting. About 68% of the farmers stated that alteration of the farming calendar affected labour availability since they depended on their school going children for weeding during school holidays in April. Shifts in weeding seasons to May or June meant shortage of farm labour because children were back in schools for their second term. In addition to inadequate labour, farmers also stated that the declining June rainfall led to mid or late season droughts leading to frequent crop failures.

Conclusion

Although subsistence agricultural production in Laikipia East District has been affected by a myriad of factors such as escalating costs of farm inputs, poor market prices and reduced arable lands due to land fragmentations caused by population increase, changes in rainfall patterns is the major contributing factors. Changes in rainfall patterns are evidenced by the declining number of rain days in March and May, increasing rainfall intensity and rainfall variability. Shifts in timings of rainfall onset has led to altered planting dates and shortened growing periods with the overall effect on final yields and hence continued food insecurity in the district.

REFERENCES

Awuor VO, Ogola JS (1997). Effects of climate change on agriculture. In Ogola JS, Abira MA, Awuor VO (eds), Potential impacts of climate change in Kenya. Climate African Network, Nairobi. pp. 95-115.

Boswell R (2007). Canadian-led study links rainfall to human activity. CanWest News Service. Available online at: http://www.racerocks.com/racerock/abiotic/rainfall/ globaltrend.htm

Case M, Ardiansyah F, Spector E (2008). Climate change in Indonesia: Implications for Humans and Nature. Available online at: www.worldwildlife.org/.../WWFBinaryitem7664.pdf

CETRAD (2002). Maize and bean yields in Kalalu area of Central Division. Unpublished data.

Huho JM (2011) Rain-fed agriculture and climate change: an analysis of

the most appropriate planting dates in Central Division of Laikipia District, Kenya. Int. J. Curr. Res., 3(4): 172-182.

IPCC (2001). Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Cambridge

University Press, UK. p.146. IPCC (2007). Climate change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and

Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, UK. pp. 127-131.

Jaetzold R, Schmidt H (1983). Farm management handbook of Kenya: Natural conditions and farm management, Central Kenya. Ministry of Agriculture, Nairobi. pp. 113-127.

PhysOrg.com (2011). Number of days of rain in Iberian Peninsula has increased since 1903. Available online at: http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-04-days-iberian-peninsula.html

Phyu AS (2010). Unusual rainfall patterns due to climate change: meteorology dept. the Myanmartimes, 26 : 504. Available online at: http://www.mmtimes.com/2010/news/504/50407.html

Ritter ME (2006). The physical environment: an introduction to physical Geography. Available on line at: http://www.uwsp.edu/geo/faculty/ritter/geog101/textbook/title_page.ht

ml UCSB (2008) Study links warming of Indian Ocean to decreased rainfall

in Africa. Available online at:

http://www.ia.ucsb.edu/pa/display.aspx?pkey=1825 UNEP (2008). Human vulnerability and food insecurity: Rainfall and

economy in Sub-Saharan Africa. Available online at:

http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/human-vulnerability-and-food-insecurity-rainfall-and-economy-in-sub-saharan-africa1

Wright WJ, Jones DA (2003). Long-term rainfall declines in southern

Australia. In Stone, R. and Patridge, I. (eds) science for drought: proceedings of the national drought forum. Department of primary

industries, Queensland. pp. 46-53.

Journal of Geography and Regional Planning Vol. 5(7), pp. 207-211, 4 April, 2012 Available online at http://www.academicjournals.org/JGRP DOI: 10.5897/JGRP11.106 ISSN 2070-1845 ©2012 Academic Journals

Full Length Research Paper

Influencing factors of community participation in tourism development: A case study of Xingwen world

Geopark

SHUI Wei1*, XU Xueyi1, WEI Yali2 and WANG Xinggui3

1Department of Eco-Agriculture and Rural Development, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611130, Sichuan,

P. R. China. 2College of Resources and Environment, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611130, Sichuan, P. R. China.

3Department of Environment and Life Science, Sichuan University for Nationalities, Kingding 626001, Sichuan, P. R.

China.

Accepted 21 March, 2012

In order to find out the influencing factors of community participation in the tourism development process, several influencing factors are summed up through field survey, questionnaires of local residents and the logistic regression analysis of the investigation datum gained from Xingwen world Geopark. Results indicated there are several key influencing factors of community participation such as the comparative benefit of tourist industry, participant residents’ subjective wishes, preference consciousness of working opportunity obtainment in the tourist enterprise and participant skills. Based on the afore-mentioned, the paper put forward several methods about how to enhance the residents’ participant degree: increasing the comparative benefit of tourist industry, enhancing the attraction of tourism for boosting participant wishes, improving the preference consciousness on obtaining working opportunity in tourism industry and cultivating residents’ participant skills through training. Key words: Community participation, influencing factors, logistic regression analysis, Xngwen world Geopark.

INTRODUCTION Community, the social living community, is based on the inhabitants in certain region and certain human relations in society (Li, 2000). The notion of community participation in tourism originates from the general concept of community participation in development studies (Tosum, 1999). Public-private sector partnerships in community participation are often one step removed from governments and raise issues about accountability and local democracy (Bahaire and Martin, 1999). Because different public and private groups expected different types of community participation to achieve their own aims that may conflict with each other (Tosun, 2006). In 1985, Travel: Community Method, published by Peter E Murphy, first introduced the concept of the community participation in tourism development (Murphy,

*Corresponding author. E-mail: shuiweiman@163.com.

1985). The community participation in tourism was also regarded as one important part of sustainable development in 21st Century Agenda about Tourism issued by The World Tourism Organization (WTO), World Travel and Tourism Councilv (WTTC) and Earth Council (Zhang,1998). It is believed that participatory development approach would facilitate implementation of principles of sustainable tourism development by creating better opportunities for local people to gain larger and more balanced benefits from tourism development taking place in their localities (Tosun, 2000), which may ensure both visitor satisfaction and ongoing benefits for the residents of destinations areas (Simmons, 1994; Tosun, 2000).

Some Chinese scholars make it clear that the community participation in tourism has already become one of important factors and the main insurance in keeping sustainable development of tourism, and has

208 J. Geogr. Reg. Plann. already become one important and effective way of the community development in minority region and in west China (Sun, 2005)

. With the community participation in

tourism and the realization of the great community benefits, the potential conflict of stakeholders and the obstacles of tourism development can be eliminated (Inskeep, 1991; Bao and Sun, 2003). By operating the small entity and obtaining some benefits, people would actively protect tourism resources and support the tourism development which promotes directly or accelerate local social culture transition (Li, 2008; Wang and Jian, 2008; Bao and Qiu, 2006). At the same time, owing to the economic development standard, social system, national policy, residents’ opinion of value etc, the depth and effect of community participation were restricted (Pang,and Li 2002). Tosun (2000) analyzed and explained the limitations to the participatory tourism development approach in the context of developing countries.

It should be noted that there are a number of differences between China and western societies for community participation of tourism development process (Bao and Sun, 2007). Nowadays, some researches in China lay emphasis on the effect, political environment, manner and coordination of stakeholder’s interest in community participation (Fan et al., 2008; Luo, 2006; Bao and Sun, 2007), but have less emphasis on the influencing factors of residents’ effective participation. However, as to tourist destination, the community residents’ effective participation is a foundation of solving many social problems for sustainable tourism development. Hence, this paper mainly investigated the situation of community participation in the Xingwen world Geopark, including the tourism influence on local residents’ profits, the influence of external social condition, subjective consciousness of the participants, participant ability, and then the paper analyzed the positive influencing factors for residents’ participation, put forward some advices to improve participation level of community residents. DATA SOURCE AND NUMERICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF SAMPLE

Data source The datum of the article stemmed from the investigation reports about local community participation of Xingwen world Geopark in July and August in 2008. As for investigation, the questionnaire and the methods of semi-structured interview were used. Of the total 106 questionnaires filled out, 94 questionnaires are effective. The efficiency rate of questionnaires is 88.7%.

The areas of field survey contains Shihaidongxiang scenic area and Bowangshan scenic area in Xingwen world Geopark, including Shilin village, Daqi village, Pingzai village , Bowang village, Nanxing village and

Shihai community, among which the five former is rural community, the last one is laid-off employees’ community where the residents were the former workers in an sulfur ore factory. The investigation directly refers to local community residents involved in tourism in order to acquire total tendency of all family members, and the datum were obtained by entering every family as one fundamental unit. Therefore, the collecting data are typically representative. Numerical characteristics of sample Among 94 effective questionnaires, 93.6% of the families include 4 to 7 members, 58.3% has two or less labor force (between 18 and 55 years old) and major workforce get jobs outside of this region, 87.6% has been in the cultural level of junior or middle school. The afore-mentioned sample numerical characteristics indicate that like other rural communities, the labor force is of shortage and the general cultural level of the residents is low. Of 94 effective questionnaires, only 39 samples occupied 41.5% took part in tourism industry, among which the major participant ways are self-support catering service, selling tourism souvenirs, working in tourism enterprises, providing cicerone service and so on. MODELS, VARIABLE AND OPERATION RESULTS Theory models and variable The investigation datum is analyzed by logistic regression model of SPSS software. Supposed that the probability of local residents’ participation is P, the probability of not-participation is 1─P. Based on the hypothesis and logistic regression model, the main influencing factors of local residents’ participation were analyzed, including 8 aspects: the comparing benefit of local residents’ participation, the trust in the local government, the difficult or easy degree of loan acquirement for the development of tourism relevant industries, the degree of wish in tourism participation, the eagerness degree of tourist service, the preference consciousness(to work in tourist enterprise) and participant abilities and skills.

In this paper, whether a person participates in tourism industry or not (such as offering catering service, working in relevant tourism enterprises, individual cicerone service etc.) is taken as two classification’s dependable variable (0,1). As for the influencing factors from X1 to X8, the variable values changed from 1 to 5 (Table 1). So, the logistic regression model in this research could be built as follows:

nn XXX

p

p

......

1log 22110

Shui et al. 209

Table 1. Variable definition in logistic regression model.

Index Value Define

Whether participation or not 1~2 1=no; 2=yes

Comparative benefit (X1) 1~5 1= worse; 2= is not as good; 3=more or less; 4=a little better; 5=better

Trust in the government (X2) 1~5 1= mistrust seriously; 2= mistrust; 3=never mind; 4= trust some; 5= trust

Loans (X3) 1~5 1= very difficult; 2=much difficult; 3=normal; 4=easy; 5=very easy

Participant wish(X4) 1~5 1=never wish; 2=not hope; 3=never mind; 4=hope; 5=wish seriously

Service eagerness(X5) 1~5 1= halfhearted seriously; 2 =halfhearted; 3=never mind; 4= enthusiasm a little; 5= enthusiasm

Preference consciousness(X6) 1~2 1=no; 2=yes

Participant energy(X7) 1~2 1=no; 2=yes

Participant skills(X8) 1~3 1=no; 2=yes; 3=yes, doing it now

Table 2. Analytic result of logistic regression of the influencing factors on community participation.

Variable Regression coefficient B

Standard error (SE)

Wald

Statistics

Degree of freedom (df)

P-value (sig) Exp(B)

Comparing benefit 1.494* 0.650 5.277 1 0.022 4.456

Trust in the government 0.178 0.568 0.098 1 0.755 1.194

Loans -0.615 0.647 0.903 1 0.342 0.541

Participant wish 1.950** 0.664 8.625 1 0.003 7.030

Service eagerness -1.427 0.847 2.840 1 0.092 0.240

Preference consciousness 3.263** 1.254 6.767 1 0.009 26.122

Participant energy 1.085 1.119 0.941 1 0.332 2.960

Participant skills 1.990* 0.825 5.820 1 0.016 7.319

Constant -16.341 4.755 11.809 1 0.001 0.000

The model’s operation results

With logistic regression analysis of influencing factors in the Table 1 operated by this first-hand data of questionnaire survey, we can get conclusions as indicated in Table 2.

ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCING FACTORS ON THE COMMUNITY RESIDENTS’ PARTICIPATION As for R2=0.876 in the goodness of fit test, this proves that the data fitting of logistic regression model is better. According to the analytic result and examination of all variables’ statistic meanings in regression model, it can be seen from every variable p-value that under 0.05 test level, comparing benefit, participant wish, preference consciousness(to work in tourist enterprise) and the participant skills have statistic meaning. And the service eagerness is around the test level while other variables do not have obvious statistic meaning. Comparative benefit of participant tourism According to logistic regression analysis, the results indicate that the symbol of B-value is positive, P-value is equal to 0.022, and Exp (B) value is equal to 4.456,

which explains that the greater the comparative benefit of participant tourism is, the bigger possibility of community participation is. In other words, 4.456 units of community residents’ participation will increase when the comparing benefit increases every unit. So, improving the comparative benefit of tourism participation can have the active influence on the community residents’ participation.

Subjective wish of residents’ participation As to participant wish, the model’s operation results show that the symbol of B-value is positive, P-value is equal to 0.003, and Exp (B) value is equal to 7.030. Based on the analysis result, the factor of subjective participant wish had a positive impact on residents’ participation. That is to say, 7.030 units of community residents’ participation will increase when the participant wish increases every unit. As a result, we can enhance residents’ participant wish through improving the tourism participation benefits so as to improve residents’ participant degree.

Preference consciousness on obtaining working opportunity in tourism industry

B-value of preference consciousness is equal to 0.009, it

210 J. Geogr. Reg. Plann. is prominent at the level of 0.01, and Exp (B) value equals 26.122. According to B-value (=3.263), It can be seen that the preference consciousness on obtaining the working opportunity has the greatest influence on the decision-making of residents’ participation. At the same time, the participant variable which is caused by the alteration of preference consciousness is the greatest. Hence it is most important for local residents to improve the preference consciousness for getting work opportunities and enhancing residents’ participant degree. Skills of participating in traveling Based on B-value of the participant skills (is positive) and Exp (B) value (equals 7.319), these data indicate that improving the participant skills can promote community residents’ participation. The influence of participant skills on improving participant degree is only less than cultivating the preference consciousness to get work opportunities. So we should strengthen the skills’ cultivation of community participation in order to advance the participant degree. Four factors (the trust in the government, loan, service eagerness and participant energy) have no obvious influence on the community residents’ participation

The degree of trust in the government and the difficult or easy degree of loan acquirement are the objective social circumstances which influence community residents’ participation in tourism. Because the community residents are always suited to the government’s activities passively, it has no obvious and only certain influence on the decision-making of community residents’ participation. Although the test level of the service eagerness is about

0.05, the influence is not obvious, because the tradition of hospitality also has certain effects besides economic profits obtained through giving services to external travelers. Furthermore, most of local community participants are in miniature or part-time, so the participant energy has no obvious influence too. Conclusion Community participation is an important method to promote healthy and sustainable development of tourism in tourist destinations. On the basis of a case study of Xingwen world Geopark, we analyze the influencing factors on local residents’ participation in tourism by logistic regression analysis, and screen out four major factors that influence residents’ participation in decision-making such as the comparative benefit of tourist

industry, participant residents’ subjective wishes, preference consciousness of working opportunity obtainment in the tourist enterprise and participant skills.

According to these resulte analysis, we also discussed some of the means to improve community participant degree and put forward some suggestions to improve community participation as follows: improving the comparative benefit of tourist industry, enhancing the attraction of tourism for boosting participant wishes, improving the preference consciousness on obtaining working opportunity in tourism industry and cultivating residents’ participant skills through training.

The research was based on whether to participate in tourism for community residents. So it laid a firm foundation for further research. Meanwhile, as for other correlative tourism researches in rural regions, the methods about how to enhance the participant degree have certain reference value. But there are still some deficiencies as follows: (1) the community participant degree is relatively low, only 41.5% of effective questionnaires are the tourism participants; (2) the total amount of samples is not adequate enough, which may limits the analysis of influencing factors on community participation; (3) this investigation and study is based on a case of Xingwen world Geopark so that its conclusions still should be testified by further study.

REFERENCES

Bahaire T, Martin EW (1999). Community participation in tourism planning and development in the historic city of York, England, Curr.

Issues Tourism, 2(2-3): 243-276. Bao J, Sun J (2007). Differences in community participation in tourism

development between China and the West. Chinese. Sociol.

Anthropol., 39(3): 9–27. Bao JG, Qiu JQ (2006). Small tourism business and social & cultural

change: A case study of Xijie Road of Yangshuo County. Hum.

Geogr., 2: 1-4, 54. Bao JG, Sun JX (2003). On the community participation in tourism

planning. Planners, 7: 32-38.

Fan C, Wall G, Mitchell CJA (2008). Creative destruction and the water town of Luzhi, China. Tourism Manage., 29(4): 648–660.

Inskeep E (1991). Tourism Planning: An Integrated and Sustainable

Development Approach. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold, p. 29. Li SJ (2000). Rural sociology. Beijing: Higher Education Press, p. 128. Li XQ (2008). A study on the Influencing factors of starting rural tourism

businesses. Tourism Tribune, 1: 19-25. Luo Y (2006). A study on the assuring mechanism of the interest of

community participation in tourism development of ethnic village.

Tourism Tribune, 21(10): 45–48. Murphy PE (1985). Tourism: A community approach Methuen. New

York and London, pp. 55-176.

Pang QL, Li JQ (2002). Study on community participation and community integration in tourism. Hum. Geogr., 4: 38-41.

Simmons DG (1994). Community participation in tourism planning.

Tourism Manage., 15(2): 98-108. Sun JX (2005). Theory Analysis on Community Participation in Tourism

Development. J. Guangdong Technol. Norm. Coll., 5: 89-92.

Sun JX, Bao JG (2004). Tourist anthropology analysis on community participation: A case study of Dai village in Xishuangbanna,.J. Guangxi Univ. Nationalities, (Philosophy and Social Science Edition),

6: 128-136-171. Tosum C (1999). Towards a typology of community participation in the

tourism development process. Int. J. Tourism Hospitality Res., 10(2):

113-134.

Tosun C (2000). Limits to Community participation in the tourism

development process in developing countries, Tourism. Manage., 21(6): 613-633.

Tosun C (2006). Expected nature of community participation in tourism development. Tourism Manage., 27(3): 493-504.

Shui et al. 211 Wang DG, Jia YJ (2008). Cost-proportion and benefit-sharing: A

research on stakeholders and value orientation in tourism exploitation. Tourism Sci., 2: 9-14.

Zhang GR (1998). 21st century agendum about travel industry. Tourism Tribune, 13(2): 50-54.

UPCOMING CONFERENCES

32nd International Geographical Congress (IGU), Köln, Germany,

26-30 Aug 2012

7th International Conference on Geographic Information Science (GIS),

Columbus, USA, 18-21 Sep 2012

Conferences and Advert August 2012 32nd International Geographical Congress (IGU), Köln, Germany, 26 Aug 2012 September 2012 7th International Conference on Geographic Information Science (GIS), Columbus, USA, 18 Sep 2012 December 2012 3rd Congress of Asian Association of Urban and Regional Studies (AAURS), Bangkok, Thailand, 11 Dec 2012

Journal of Geography

and Regional Planning

Related Journals Published by Academic Journals

African Journal of Political Science and International Relations

Journal of Economics and International Finance

Journal of Hospitality Management and Tourism

African Journal of Business Management

Journal of Accounting and Taxation

International Journal of Sociology and Anthropology

Journal of Public Administration and Policy Research

African Journal of Marketing Management